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  #16041  
Old Posted Nov 8, 2019, 1:17 PM
milomilo milomilo is online now
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Originally Posted by kwoldtimer View Post
Does StatsCan calculate federal tax revenues by province? I've never seen such a thing, but it would be interesting. Given Quebec's impaired fiscal capacity, one would assume that they punch below their national weight in this regard, but I have no idea really.
It will still be somewhat proportional to their GDP though, although perhaps not perfectly linearly.
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  #16042  
Old Posted Nov 8, 2019, 1:33 PM
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It will still be somewhat proportional to their GDP though, although perhaps not perfectly linearly.
Yes, and my figure has us punching below our weight per capita, as we'd expect.

As I explicitly said: I'm open to any better metric, if anyone has one to suggest.

One thing is for sure (and even Corndogger has to admit that), a few billion of that $20 billion are from Quebec itself. My best approximation is ~4, he's welcome to suggest a slightly different figure, backed up by explanations of course.

And then we can all agree on what Quebec's small yearly deficit would be if equalization got abolished entirely.
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  #16043  
Old Posted Nov 8, 2019, 3:05 PM
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Here's a very rough breakdown of where the equalization ~$20B could be from:
(you guys are welcome to tweak it if you want; I stuck to gross round numbers in all cases.)

Quebec ~$4B
Ontario (per capita contributing ~20% more than Quebec) ~$8B
Alberta (per capita contributing ~2x more than Quebec) ~$4B
BC (per capita contributing ~30% more than Quebec) ~$3B
Saskatchewan (per capita contributing ~2x more than Quebec) ~$1B
The Have Not Provinces rounded down at ~$0B

(we could obviously increase the latter contribution by reducing all of the have provinces'; I may have been overly generous with those. Maybe put Ontario at 15% more than Quebec, Alberta at 75% more than Quebec, BC at 20% more than Quebec and Sask at 50% more than Quebec; that should leave a decent amount for the other provinces.)


It's crazy to me (i.e. both laughable and worrying) that Corndogger seemed to think that if equalization were abolished, Quebec's $8.2B surplus would become a $4.8B deficit. That's not "if equalization were abolished", that's "if equalization continued as is now, with the one difference that instead of redistributing the $20B to the provinces that are deemed 'have not', the Feds go and put that $20B in liquid cash into a giant crate and permanently bury it kilometers under the surface of the Earth like it's radioactive waste".

Then yes, under that scenario, Quebec's deficit would be ~$4.8B.

(Of which ~$4B goes into the Federal Kilometer-Deep Equalization Crate, and ~$0.8B is the difference between Quebec revenues and Quebec expenses for this fiscal year.)


If his posts on the subject are representative of Albertan views, that's... pretty bad.
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  #16044  
Old Posted Nov 8, 2019, 3:19 PM
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Wow that Quebec budget announcement really is the Great Canadian Grievance Shibboleth perfect storm!
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  #16045  
Old Posted Nov 8, 2019, 3:28 PM
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Imagine the dynamics if Quebec was the province where billions of barrels of oil were discovered.
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  #16046  
Old Posted Nov 8, 2019, 3:31 PM
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https://lop.parl.ca/sites/PublicWebs...ations/200820ECanada’s Equalization Formula

Still reading but here is the info everyone is commenting on.

Whether its right or wrong the Optics of Quebec showing such a big surplus is not going to go over well on Conservative media. And Kenny will make some stupid comment later today I am sure. He needs to deflect from recent news and coming legislation.

From the paper. Paragraph 3 and 4 are important.

3.1 Overview

Equalization uses a mathematical formula to determine which provinces are eligible for the transfer and the amount of each eligible province’s payment. Since 2009, the total amount of Equalization payments has grown annually in accordance with a three year moving average rate of growth in Canada’s nominal gross domestic product (GDP); between 2007 and 2009, the total amount was based on a formula.

The basic structure of Equalization is relatively straightforward. On a per capita basis, Equalization assesses a province’s ability to generate own-source revenues and compares that fiscal capacity to the average fiscal capacity for all provinces. With the exception of user fees (fees for the use of public services), all provincial government revenue sources are allocated to one of five categories: personal income taxes, business income taxes, consumption taxes, property taxes and natural resource revenues.

Save for natural resource revenues, the Equalization formula estimates fiscal capacity in each of the four remaining revenue categories by determining the amount of per capita revenue that each province could generate if all provinces had identical tax rates. Because of the wide range of natural resources and royalty structures across the provinces, actual resource revenues are used to measure fiscal capacity instead of creating a national average tax rate.

To determine which provinces are eligible for Equalization – and, if so, for how much – each province’s per capita fiscal capacity in all five revenue categories is compared to the average fiscal capacity of the 10 provinces. If, according to the formula, a province has a below-average ability to generate own-source revenues, then it is eligible for an Equalization payment to make up the difference. If a province’s revenue-generating ability exceeds the 10-province average, then it is not eligible for an Equalization payment.
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  #16047  
Old Posted Nov 8, 2019, 3:40 PM
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And in other news. Kenny announced this morning that any New oil well from conventional oil with not be subject to the curtailment as older wells and Oil sands.

This should do pretty much nothing. since most drilling companies have already issued their capital spending estimates for next year. Add to that , that there is no capacity for shipping right now. even oil by rail is down.
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  #16048  
Old Posted Nov 8, 2019, 3:41 PM
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Originally Posted by Acajack View Post
Wow that Quebec budget announcement really is the Great Canadian Grievance Shibboleth perfect storm!
Now that we have a nearly balanced budget even without equalization... maybe we can finally afford to #Quexit.
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  #16049  
Old Posted Nov 8, 2019, 3:43 PM
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Originally Posted by Airboy View Post
https://lop.parl.ca/sites/PublicWebs...ations/200820ECanada’s Equalization Formula

Still reading but here is the info everyone is commenting on.

Whether its right or wrong the Optics of Quebec showing such a big surplus is not going to go over well on Conservative media. And Kenny will make some stupid comment later today I am sure. He needs to deflect from recent news and coming legislation.

From the paper. Paragraph 3 and 4 are important.

3.1 Overview

Equalization uses a mathematical formula to determine which provinces are eligible for the transfer and the amount of each eligible province’s payment. Since 2009, the total amount of Equalization payments has grown annually in accordance with a three year moving average rate of growth in Canada’s nominal gross domestic product (GDP); between 2007 and 2009, the total amount was based on a formula.

The basic structure of Equalization is relatively straightforward. On a per capita basis, Equalization assesses a province’s ability to generate own-source revenues and compares that fiscal capacity to the average fiscal capacity for all provinces. With the exception of user fees (fees for the use of public services), all provincial government revenue sources are allocated to one of five categories: personal income taxes, business income taxes, consumption taxes, property taxes and natural resource revenues.

Save for natural resource revenues, the Equalization formula estimates fiscal capacity in each of the four remaining revenue categories by determining the amount of per capita revenue that each province could generate if all provinces had identical tax rates. Because of the wide range of natural resources and royalty structures across the provinces, actual resource revenues are used to measure fiscal capacity instead of creating a national average tax rate.

To determine which provinces are eligible for Equalization – and, if so, for how much – each province’s per capita fiscal capacity in all five revenue categories is compared to the average fiscal capacity of the 10 provinces. If, according to the formula, a province has a below-average ability to generate own-source revenues, then it is eligible for an Equalization payment to make up the difference. If a province’s revenue-generating ability exceeds the 10-province average, then it is not eligible for an Equalization payment.
It is extraordinary the extent to which Kenney needs an "Other" to validate his politics. I don't think we've ever seen anything quite this extreme in Canada before. Although Quebec/equalization seems a bit of a sideshow, as the "Other" in this case is clearly the Justin Trudeau GofC.
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  #16050  
Old Posted Nov 8, 2019, 5:05 PM
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If his posts on the subject are representative of Albertan views, that's... pretty bad.
My impression is that as far as average aggrieved Albertans go, it's a pretty good approximation to say that they're just upset about the current situation, and they see Quebec and equalization as a scapegoat. Some people of course have a more nuanced view based on the actual finances but most don't. Most people couldn't tell you how much equalization is paid to Quebec, maybe even within an order of magnitude (I bet a significant number would say "millions", thinking that is a huge amount of money, etc.). It would be fun to see polling data on this.

Maybe it is good to try to phase out equalization over time. Maybe it is unfair. I don't really have a strong opinion about it. But federal finances in Canada are very complicated. You need to look at the situation holistically and not all costs are the same. Some are transfers (e.g. EI) and others are money paid for federal services (e.g. military), but people tend to lump all of that together and view every federal dollar spent as a handout.

You also need to have some way to account for the fact that some disparities in tax collection and transfers are due to evenly applied policies and differences in incomes or demographics across the country. For example, one of the federal government's big expenses is old age security. The provinces with the most seniors will get the most in per capita OAS payments. Likewise people with higher incomes pay higher federal income taxes and people who buy more pay more GST. There's no provincial or regional unfairness about that; we are all under the same system.
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  #16051  
Old Posted Nov 8, 2019, 5:29 PM
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There is a big caesium between perception and fact. As I have noticed on this and other social media boards.

A lot of opinion here is based on what we read, hear or see on these sites and news sites and are not always the actual opinion on the ground. I have had the luxury to travel 95% of Canada and my perception has changed remarkably over the years. I try not to bash an area in Canada.
We tend to hear opinion only from those with the loudest mouth. it may be wrong but it gets the attention.



As to the topic at hand I need to do more reading about equalisation and the current economics.
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  #16052  
Old Posted Nov 8, 2019, 6:28 PM
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The way they figure out equalization is simple math.......Financials + Politics = Equalization.

The way they calculate expenditures per province is pretty basic............everyone pays the same federal tax and the poorer provinces get more money back than the wealthier ones so they can maintain relatively the same health/social/educational services across the country. I don't have a problem with this and I don't think most Canadians do either. This part of the math is the one based upon financials.

The problems comes when the second part of the math equation comes into play..........the politics. This is where the system has become warped because this is where the revenue potential comes in and that is very much a political decision and henced determined by political considerations. It is patently ridiculous when a liguid that is black comes out of the ground it is considered a revenue potential but if it comes out of the ground clear, it isn't. Now before this is attacked by people saying I am being "anti-Quebec", that is not true. Other poorer provinces like Manitoba and NB have huge water revenue potential less so NS and effectively none on PEI. Of course the calculation is not a one-way street as water for electricity potential is massive in AB & SK yet they have chosen to make the least amount of use of it as both still rely on fossil fuels to make electricity.
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  #16053  
Old Posted Nov 8, 2019, 6:33 PM
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There is a big caesium between perception and fact.
Isn't caesium a radioactive isotope?
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  #16054  
Old Posted Nov 8, 2019, 6:38 PM
lio45 lio45 is online now
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Originally Posted by Chadillaccc View Post
Isn't caesium a radioactive isotope?
Probably another thoroughly inexplicable phone autocorrect alteration.

(Still, he's correct in pointing out there's a big covfefe between perception and fact.)
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  #16055  
Old Posted Nov 8, 2019, 6:41 PM
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Imagine the dynamics if Quebec was the province where billions of barrels of oil were discovered.
They'd literally have nearly immediately declared independence and the rest of the country wouldn't have seen a dime from it. Sorry about the truth.
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  #16056  
Old Posted Nov 8, 2019, 7:00 PM
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They'd literally have nearly immediately declared independence and the rest of the country wouldn't have seen a dime from it. Sorry about the truth.
I partially agree. No way they'd have shared although I'm not sure if they've have gone independent.
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  #16057  
Old Posted Nov 8, 2019, 7:08 PM
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Sorry if this is a repost:



I do find it hilarious that the ones taking our dollars are the ones dictating our laws and polices. Very generous of them to give us advice on how to run our economies, they truly want us to be just as successful as them.
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  #16058  
Old Posted Nov 8, 2019, 7:19 PM
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Isn't caesium a radioactive isotope?
spell check, what the hell. Chasm.
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  #16059  
Old Posted Nov 8, 2019, 7:23 PM
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NL is not part of the Maritimes and seems odd for MB to be considered differently from the rest of the west.
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  #16060  
Old Posted Nov 8, 2019, 7:26 PM
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BC takes back the crown for Canada's lowest unemployment rate. Way to go BC NDP!

https://biv.com/article/2019/11/bc-a...-months-losses
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