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  #61  
Old Posted Nov 2, 2019, 12:56 PM
Crawford Crawford is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by isaidso View Post
Besides, a far higher % of Canadians live in cities with expensive real estate. A single detached house on a big lot would cost millions.
This is a huge factor. Canadians are more apt to live in multifamily because SFH are extremely expensive.

It's generally agreed that, all things equal, most people prefer SFH. So why would there be lots of multifamily in, say, suburban Columbus? Makes no sense when a nice SFH home can be had for 200k. But makes plenty of sense when the same home in the GTA is 800k.
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  #62  
Old Posted Nov 2, 2019, 1:05 PM
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here is my list of Toronto skylines

In Toronto we have:

Downtown
https://earth.google.com/web/@43.643...76.3196407t,0r

St. Clair and Yonge
https://earth.google.com/web/@43.688...5.96940508t,0r

Davisville and Yonge
https://earth.google.com/web/@43.715...01334578t,360r

Eglinton and Yonge
https://earth.google.com/web/@43.708...0.26868682t,0r

North York City Centre
https://earth.google.com/web/@43.763...4.52036809t,0r

Sheppard and Bayview
https://earth.google.com/web/@43.765...9.45170642t,0r

Sheppard and Leslie
https://earth.google.com/web/@43.765...1.92799806t,0r

Sheppard and Don Mills
https://earth.google.com/web/@43.779...79.5273409t,0r

401 and Kennedy
https://earth.google.com/web/@43.778...1.94360755t,0r

Scarborogh City Centre
https://earth.google.com/web/@43.777...82.1015227t,0r

Eglinton and DVP
https://earth.google.com/web/@43.728...1.23017466t,0r

Humber Bayshore
https://earth.google.com/web/@43.623...1.95953522t,0r

Etobicoke City Centre
https://earth.google.com/web/@43.655...30933818t,360r

Highway 427
https://earth.google.com/web/@43.640...9.74724514t,0r

Dundas and Kipling
https://earth.google.com/web/@43.634...9.87469715t,0r


and Outside of the City limits:

Mississauga City Centre
https://earth.google.com/web/@43.593...8.8991744t,-0r

Hurontario and Eglinton
https://earth.google.com/web/@43.605...5.66114819t,0r

Port Credit
https://earth.google.com/web/@43.543...5.20120499t,0r

Brampton
https://earth.google.com/web/@43.687....51861512t,-0r

Bramalea
https://earth.google.com/web/@43.713...1.64615428t,0r

Burlington
https://earth.google.com/web/@43.329...1.61299809t,0r

Bronte
https://earth.google.com/web/@43.397...7.87750741t,0r

Markham
https://earth.google.com/web/@43.853...2.56544024t,0r
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  #63  
Old Posted Nov 2, 2019, 4:36 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nite View Post
The New Westminister skyline in metro Vancouver is underrated I feel.


https://www.flickr.com/photos/147784...n/photostream/

Metro vancouver with some suburban skylines

views for years 2 by
Andrew Rochfort
, on Flickr
And currently New West has a 180 metre and a 149 metre tower under construction. Another 133 metre tower is proposed.
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  #64  
Old Posted Nov 2, 2019, 4:43 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Crawford View Post
This is a huge factor. Canadians are more apt to live in multifamily because SFH are extremely expensive.

It's generally agreed that, all things equal, most people prefer SFH. So why would there be lots of multifamily in, say, suburban Columbus? Makes no sense when a nice SFH home can be had for 200k. But makes plenty of sense when the same home in the GTA is 800k.
This is definitely part of it, but Canadians are also more likely to want to live within walking distance of mass transit and other services.

Hence it comes to no surprise that one can easily trace out the metro lines in Vancouver just by following the clusters of towers.

I laughed when an American told me that they were surprised to see high school students taking the train to school. To me that is as just normal even in elementary school to use transit. (And I grew up in the country side!)

But maybe that is one of the side effects of US style paranoia is teaching children to fear public transit.

Given its size, Vancouver has no right being in the top ten metro systems for ridership in North America, but it is!
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  #65  
Old Posted Nov 2, 2019, 5:43 PM
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Dallas, the most car dependent city in the country, as also building the most multifamily

(60000 units under construction delivering 30000 per year)

So maybe the correlation of multi family with transit is less than you think

Portland Oregon has many urban amenities, close to where people live, but transit share is very low
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  #66  
Old Posted Nov 2, 2019, 5:47 PM
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It’s like you can’t accept the idea that vast capital flows from outside your country constitutes the major driver of tower construction , and instead argue that this fact derives from your assumed moral superiority vs your southern neighbors
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  #67  
Old Posted Nov 2, 2019, 7:01 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dc_denizen View Post
It’s like you can’t accept the idea that vast capital flows from outside your country constitutes the major driver of tower construction , and instead argue that this fact derives from your assumed moral superiority vs your southern neighbors

Investor-driven development (both foreign but mostly domestic) hasn't not spurred any high-rise development; but developers in Canadian cities have also been building vast quantities of market rate residential high-rises for decades - long since before foreign investment was a factor (I believe the 60s still hold the record for high-rise construction in Toronto).




However much money might flow in, it's not as if China is dictating land use policies in Canada. It is in big part a cultural thing. If zoning in Dallas were more permissive in building high-rises and more restrictive in building SFH it'd be building just as many towers as Toronto.
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  #68  
Old Posted Nov 2, 2019, 7:53 PM
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It's just kind of ridiculous to imagine that huge foreign investment would be needed to enable mostly middle-class homes and offices to be constructed in a G7 country with high growth and percapita GDP in the top global 10% in response to significant regional population growth. It's almost as if someone is looking at an impoverished developing country and wondering how they're building all kinds of huge infrastructure projects like metro systems and high speed railways. "Oh... It's being funded by China who are trying to expand their geopolitical influence in the region!! Well that makes sense then..."

In this case such questions and conjecture are just obnoxious and irrational condescension. Whether or not foreign investors see what they consider to be a hot investment opportunity in a relatively stable setting and decide to jump on board (evidenced in the West Coast market), that's completely different from their input being necessary to allow the construction to happen.
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  #69  
Old Posted Nov 3, 2019, 12:27 AM
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Originally Posted by Metro-One View Post
This is definitely part of it, but Canadians are also more likely to want to live within walking distance of mass transit and other services.
Well, yeah. Households in multifamily are more likely to need public transit.

But they're not living in multifamily due to public transit. That doesn't make much sense. The most transit-rich corridor in Canada (Yonge) has tons of SFH right on the subway, while there are giant multifamily complexes in exurban Toronto, with relatively poor transit.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Metro-One View Post
I laughed when an American told me that they were surprised to see high school students taking the train to school. To me that is as just normal even in elementary school to use transit. (And I grew up in the country side!)

But maybe that is one of the side effects of US style paranoia is teaching children to fear public transit.
I seriously doubt many Canadian elementary children, especially in rural areas, take transit to school. Parents just drop off their kids on a highway, letting their first grader wait for a city bus? Even in NYC where all kids are eligible for Metrocards, the little ones are typically being walked to school. Little kids generally only ride the subway with older siblings.

And transit doesn't make sense for most North American children because it's "scary", it's because it doesn't exist, or is extremely impractical.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Metro-One View Post
Given its size, Vancouver has no right being in the top ten metro systems for ridership in North America, but it is!
I don't think it's shocking. Vancouver has crazy high housing prices and extremely low salaries. I can't imagine average households can afford an autocentric lifestyle.
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  #70  
Old Posted Nov 3, 2019, 12:31 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dc_denizen View Post
Dallas, the most car dependent city in the country, as also building the most multifamily
Dallas builds the second most multifamily. NYC builds the most, by a longshot. But Dallas also builds the most SFH, by a longshot. Dallas builds a shitload of housing.

Here are 2019 new construction counts for U.S. MSAs through 8-31:
https://www.census.gov/construction/...t3yu201909.txt

Dallas MSA has permitted 26,500 SFH units and around 19,500 multifamily units

NYC MSA has permitted around 32,000 multifamily units.
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  #71  
Old Posted Nov 3, 2019, 1:04 AM
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Originally Posted by Pavlov's Dog View Post
For Vancouver an additional factor favoring high-rise condo development was the timing of having half a million or so Chinese people moving over from Hong Kong and other places densely populated places in Asia and having high rise, transit-centric living as the expectation. Is there any data or anecdotal evidence to support my hypothesis?
Silicon Valley is also largely an Asian immigrant area and is one of the most NIMBY areas, mostly zoned for single family homes.
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  #72  
Old Posted Nov 3, 2019, 1:33 AM
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Silicon Valley is also largely an Asian immigrant area and is one of the most NIMBY areas, mostly zoned for single family homes.
the origins of the immigrants have zero effect on Canadian suburban skylines.
The main differentiator between the US and Canada is that the land use policy in the case of Greater Toronto and Greater Vancouver comes from the provinces, which means NIMBY's have much less say on what gets built.

I presume in the US cities and county governments get a bigger voice in what gets built and hence it is easy to stop highrises development.
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  #73  
Old Posted Nov 3, 2019, 1:48 PM
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The data on multifamily housing has some problems in interpretation to high rise development. Large amount of this new housing in the US, perhaps with the exception of NYC, is the 5 story wood frame type, often on a 1 or 2 story concrete parking base. The number of buildings that are 20 or more floors is less common. That is one of the key differences with the comparison of Canada, e.g. Toronto and Vancouver, to the US cities.

In Atlanta we are seeing many 20-35 floor buildings rising in the city, but few planned higher than that - including office buildings. The suburbs are mostly the 5 story wood frame complexes.
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  #74  
Old Posted Nov 3, 2019, 2:15 PM
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^ good point.

the facts are, TOD, densification and multifamily (for middle-class people) is enjoying an unprecedented boom in both countries. The form of these developments (suburban tower vs woodframe complexes) is quite different, which is an interesting question.

The claims about collectivism vs individualism, zoning, and greenbelts mostly misses the point. If the US was building nearly all SFH and no TOD (like say, 2000-2008) these arguments might be relevant. But how can they be squared with the fact of record multifamily development in the US, often in very suburban cities like Houston and Dallas?

In the US the one city where there is a ton of tower construction and little woodframe is Miami. Not accidentally, this is where lots of Latin American money is parked in real estate.

Meanwhile Australian cities and London comprise a global complex of real estate safe havens, to which Toronto and Vancouver belong but not cities in US and mainland Europe. You could bring in New York, Dubai and Singapore as well. there are obvious differences in real estate trends between say this global complex of cities, and other less globalized cities. Australia is building as many towers as toronto but has no heritage of building 1960s highrises like toronto has. Same for london.
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  #75  
Old Posted Nov 3, 2019, 2:24 PM
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I'd imagine it's the same individualistic cultural forces in America that favor private cars over transit, stand-your-ground laws, ownership of firearms, private healthcare, private schools, private prisons, etc. There is less institutionalization of the greater good.
"less institutionalization of the greater good". wait what?

how do you square that pop psychology with the multifamily boom in DC , for example?

https://www.bisnow.com/washington-dc...issance-101355
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  #76  
Old Posted Nov 3, 2019, 2:47 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dc_denizen View Post
The claims about collectivism vs individualism, zoning, and greenbelts mostly misses the point. If the US was building nearly all SFH and no TOD (like say, 2000-2008) these arguments might be relevant. But how can they be squared with the fact of record multifamily development in the US, often in very suburban cities like Houston and Dallas?
People are coupling/marrying later, having kids later, and not really "established" till 40, So there's a huge need for rental housing in the U.S., whether or not a given area is urban or transit oriented. A metro like Dallas, adding a million people+ per decade, will need lots of housing of all types.

In Canada, apples to apples SFH housing is extremely expensive, and salaries are lower, so in addition to the later coupling and population growth, you have a need for smaller-scale urban units. Canada has very expensive SFH but multifamily generally isn't more expensive than the U.S.

If you're an expat professional looking for downtown rental housing in, say, Chicago and Toronto, the Chicago housing will be more expensive. You can live in a luxury highrise in the best part of downtown Toronto for like $1,500/month U.S. But Chicago is considered relatively cheap because suburban SFH are apples to apples cheaper, and because 1/3 of the metro housing stock is basically off-limits. There's no Gary or Dolton in Toronto.
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  #77  
Old Posted Nov 3, 2019, 2:48 PM
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I'd imagine it's the same individualistic cultural forces in America that favor private cars over transit, stand-your-ground laws, ownership of firearms, private healthcare, private schools, private prisons, etc. There is less institutionalization of the greater good.
I suppose you're right. There's simply more government intervention in Canada to mitigate perceived negative effects of market forces. We often want things (big houses on big lots) that aren't best for the country overall. In Canada we attempt to curtail some of that while in the US it's allowed to run its course to a greater extent. I ton of Canadians would like a brand new 3000 square foot detached house on a big lot in one of the big cities but the supply of them doesn't come close to satisfying the demand for them. Prices for them are jacked up to the point that only a small fraction of people that want them can afford to buy one.

We have no city like Atlanta, for instance.
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  #78  
Old Posted Nov 3, 2019, 2:51 PM
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Originally Posted by Nite View Post
the origins of the immigrants have zero effect on Canadian suburban skylines.
Chinese nationals aren't a significant contributor to Toronto and Vancouver suburban skylines? Absurd. Just as Miami's highrise development is largely dependent on the economic fears of wealthy Latin Americans, Vancouver's development is dependent on Chinese money exiting China/HK.
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  #79  
Old Posted Nov 3, 2019, 2:59 PM
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Some more of the type of developments occurring in the Washington DC metro area:

https://www.bisnow.com/washington-dc...lopment-101317

Quote:
The radius of Northern Virginia buyers citing Amazon HQ2 in their plans continues to expand, with a developer in Woodbridge now citing the tech giant as a catalyst for a large-scale shopping center redevelopment.
Grace Street Properties acquired the 13-acre Station Plaza shopping center and plans to move forward on redevelopment plans, with the site allowing for over 2M SF of mixed-use development.

Boosalis Properties represented Grace Street in the $19.1M acquisition of the 158K SF shopping center. The brokerage firm announced the deal Tuesday and said it closed at a 7.6% capitalization rate. Greysteel represented the seller, and Apple Federal Credit Union provided acquisition financing. The Prince William County shopping center sits at the intersection of VA 123 and Route 1. It is anchored by Food Lion and B-Thrifty and also includes a Chinese restaurant, a Mexican restaurant and a pizza shop. The property sits in an opportunity zone area that Prince William County recently rezoned with a new master plan that allows for over 2M SF of mixed-use development on the shopping center site. The buyer didn't say if it plans to utilize the federal tax incentive program. The site is roughly 20 miles south of Crystal City and Pentagon City, where Amazon is building its second headquarters.

The property is across the street from a VRE and Amtrak station, which also connects it to the HQ2 site. The buyer's representative cited the proximity to Amazon HQ2 five times in its release announcing the acquisition. It said it plans to work with the county to create a pedestrian bridge across Route 1 to the train station to provide better transit access for commuters. "This will essentially create an opportunity for residents to be at their jobs in Washington, D.C., or Amazon HQ2 office space within 30-45 minutes," a Grace Street spokesperson said in the release. "They will not have to sit in traffic or drive to get to work from Woodbridge, VA. They can simply wake up and walk to the VRE/Amtrak station. We believe this site has the potential to be one of the largest mixed-use developments in Northern Virginia."
although you don't hear about them on this site, there are dozens of similar developments moving forward across the DC metro area.

the catalyst being extremely high salaries and economic growth (amazon hq, Rolls royce US HQ to Reston, etc), plus a youthful population.

But little in the way of foreign money, no greenbelts, etc.

and likely no 40 story towers, even if the square footage is impressive.
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  #80  
Old Posted Nov 3, 2019, 3:00 PM
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Originally Posted by Metro-One View Post

I laughed when an American told me that they were surprised to see high school students taking the train to school. To me that is as just normal even in elementary school to use transit. (And I grew up in the country side!)
Most Canadian metros will end up looking a lot like Vancouver (multiple dense clusters scattered about) but most still don't look like that. In Halifax, for instance, kids still walk/drive to high school. I certainly did. There is no rail. And in most Canadian CMAs PT is still considered something poor people use. It's the big 3 metros that are the exception to that rule.

This will change as our metros get denser and PT becomes viable/good enough over larger swaths of our cities but we're not there yet. Even in Toronto, PT just isn't an attractive option in many cases. I live downtown and currently work in Etobicoke but there's no way in hell I'm taking PT to get there. Not happening. If I can't get there on a subway I either drive or don't go at all.

I take the Gardiner Expressway depicted on the left. You'd think there would be decent PT between downtown and the suburban cluster in Etobicoke's Humber Bay Shores (centre) but there's not. Even if they built a subway to that cluster I'd still drive as I work 5 km further west than that cluster. The people living in Humber Bay Shores are all car dependent. They drive everywhere. They don't walk or bike either.


Courtesy of Norm

Quote:
Originally Posted by Metro-One View Post
Given its size, Vancouver has no right being in the top ten metro systems for ridership in North America, but it is!
And Montreal has no business having the 3rd most average daily boardings of any metro system after NYC and Mexico City. It's slightly ahead of Toronto in 4th.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...s_by_ridership
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Last edited by isaidso; Nov 3, 2019 at 3:20 PM.
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