Next CMA to reach 1 million

[balletomane]

Just for fun, saw that there was a poll like this from a few years back and thought it should be updated.

2016 census data:
Quebec City 800,296 (up 4.3% from 2011), 807,211 Jul. 1, 2016 estimate
Winnipeg 778,489 (up 6.6% from 2011), 811,874 Jul. 1, 2016 estimate
Hamilton 747,545 (up 3.7% from 2011), 778,417 Jul 1, 2016 estimate

[Beedok]

My money stays on Winnipeg for 900K, but Hamilton sneaking in for 1 million. Mostly from there just being so many people in the region and Hamilton having cheap land, combined with eventually gobbling some nearby towns into the CMA.

[csbvan]

Winnipeg as it becomes Canada's Portland, and continues to grow at sustained rates with young expats from more expensive big cities in the country

[Laceoflight]

It's a very good question.

I think that Hamilton has the better chances of reaching the 1M mark, being so close to the GTA. Toronto's growth is already spreading (in Burlington for example) and is not ready to stop with very strong immigration numbers.

On the other side, Winnipeg's growth is strong these days. But there's not much outside the city itself.

Quebec City is another interesting case. The metro region is already at ~903 000 if we add up all the suburban towns surrounding it that are developing fast (Donnacona, Cap-Santé, Pont-Rouge, Saint-Raymond, Saint-Apollinaire, Beaupré, Saint-Anselme...) All of these have reached 35 to 55% commuting to QCC, and steadily increase their connection to the city... The growth rates are slow but steady however.

[balletomane]

I think the race comes down to Winnipeg and Hamilton. Although Hamilton has the slowest growth as of late, its proximity to Toronto could allow for it start booming a few years down the road.
As it stands right now, I'd say Winnipeg. The greatest hindrance to Winnipeg's potential is the lack of vision among the city politicians. Although the atmosphere of the city is becoming more proud and hopeful compared to the dead times of the late-1990's and early 2000's, there are still many people that seem to think of Winnipeg as being the "butt" of the nation. The city recently unveiled a report that hopes Winnipeg will grow to 1 million by 2035. If they really had vision they would be trying to get it there a bit faster and focusing on LRT instead of rapid transit...
I know little of Quebec City's growth, but from what I hear it receives the least number of immigrants annually and its growth rate has slowed recently.

[koops65]

This is an old topic/thread... and needs to be merged with the previous thread...

[FrAnKs]

Winnipeg hands down.

[Jagators63]

Many people are moving out of Toronto to Hamiton, Guelph and Kitchener. I have see steady growth in Waterloo region

[esquire]

I'd expect Hamilton would take this race given that it benefits from the massive numbers at play in whatever GTA growth spills over to them.

[balletomane]

Originally Posted by esquire

I'd expect Hamilton would take this race given that it benefits from the massive numbers at play in whatever GTA growth spills over to them.

I'd expect the same given its proximity to Toronto...but maybe those of us who are not from Hamilton overestimate the effects geographic proximity would have on development.

I think the original thread about this topic (from 2008?), had Hamilton and Quebec City almost in a tie, with a slim majority for Hamilton. Most were saying Winnipeg would be last. Interesting how so much can change in a decade, lets see what the next one brings!

[Beedok]

Originally Posted by balletomane

I'd expect the same given its proximity to Toronto...but maybe those of us who are not from Hamilton overestimate the effects geographic proximity would have on development.

Right now it's only moderate (Burlington has decent growth), but as Toronto keeps growing it will likely shift. Proper Go transit connections between Hamilton, Niagara, and Brantford will likely help a bit too (though those two areas aren't growing too fast... that could change), and eventually some nearby areas will fold into the Hamilton CMA (adding about 60K right now, putting it back up with the other three).

It'll be close though.

[Elmira Guy]

I'm curious to know which city/cities those who voted "other" had in mind.

[sunsetmountainland]

Originally Posted by Elmira Guy

I'm curious to know which city/cities those who voted "other" had in mind.

Surrey and Brampton

[esquire]

Originally Posted by Beedok

Right now it's only moderate (Burlington has decent growth), but as Toronto keeps growing it will likely shift. Proper Go transit connections between Hamilton, Niagara, and Brantford will likely help a bit too (though those two areas aren't growing too fast... that could change), and eventually some nearby areas will fold into the Hamilton CMA (adding about 60K right now, putting it back up with the other three).

It'll be close though.

Improved GO Transit service was what I was thinking of when I made my comment... well, that and stratospheric real estate prices in Toronto which may or may not last.

With Toronto growing at a quick rate, Hamilton getting even a small portion of those large real numbers could really you guys up towards a million in a hurry. Quebec and Winnipeg don't have those potential boosts from a larger neighbour... picking Hamilton is not to suggest that the other two are in any way unhealthy or fading as cities, it's just that Hamilton has a very big neighbour next door.

[ue]

Hamilton is dependent on how much spillover Toronto growth it gets. If the number increases significantly, it will most likely be the first, but it hasn't caused a surge in growth yet.

So without that, my guess is on Winnipeg, particularly because it is the primate city for a huge hinterland to draw upon, as well as being a popular immigrant destination vis-a-vis Quebec City.

[caltrane74]

I don't see Winnipeg getting to a million for a long time. Growth not that fast.

Hamilton, growing slow, but with benefit of not being in the middle of its own hinterland.

[mistercorporate]

My money's on Winnipeg.

[Razor]

I'm thinking Hamilton, just for the reasons others have outlined.

Having said that, I'm betting all three will hit a million within that same 5 years span. Almost a photo finish perhaps?
This grouping is just as tight as the middle three.

[balletomane]

Poor Quebec City has even less votes than "other"...

What CMAs are people thinking of when voting other? KWC and London?
Suburban cities like Mississauga, Brampton and Surrey I guess could be in the running but they don't have a CMA.

[GreaterMontréal]

For me, Quebec City has the greatest potential. Only if the immigration level ramps up. because there is none. only 3500-4000 immigrants /year