Next CMA to reach 1 million

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by lio45

On topic, I would personally be curious to see what kind of "Greater Greater" Quebec City area you'd have to draw in order to have a population exceeding Manitoba's.

(To see how much of a stretch it is, considering the city's actual catchment area.)

You don't have to go as far as you think. Just the Capitale-Nationale and Chaudière-Appalaches administrative regions taken together are fairly close to Manitoba's population.

[GreaterMontréal]

Originally Posted by lio45

On topic, I would personally be curious to see what kind of "Greater Greater" Quebec City area you'd have to draw in order to have a population exceeding Manitoba's.

(To see how much of a stretch it is, considering the city's actual catchment area.)

Capital-Nationale, 730k
Chaudière-Appalaches, 421k
MRC Arthabaska + MRC de l'Érable, 95k
Shawinigan, 50k
that's enough

[Laceoflight]

Originally Posted by Acajack

You don't have to go as far as you think. Just the Capitale-Nationale and Chaudière-Appalaches administrative regions taken together are fairly close to Manitoba's population.

|
v
1,163 M. people as of July 1, 2016, according to the ISQ. Man. was at 1,318 M. On 24 400 sq. km of inhabited territory.

[balletomane]

Originally Posted by Acajack

Quebec City isn't really "poor" in this matter because no one there really cares about this type of stuff. (Though presumably they do care that Winnipeg is back in the NHL and they aren't, but that's another topic but unrelated to population growth...)

Before anyone gets excited it's worth mentioning that this indifference on the part of Quebec isn't necessarily about thinking they're superior or "above it all"... it's just part of an entrenched aloofness about the rest of Canada outside the province's borders.

(Kind of like asking people in Ottawa if they care that their metro is smaller than Columbus, Ohio...)

I regret my choice of words, it was early in the morning...
A city's success or prosperity should definitely not be measured solely by population or population growth. Detroit is an example of this, despite having about 5 million in its metro, the city itself minus a few select areas is not prospering like it was decades ago.

[WhipperSnapper]

Originally Posted by Acajack

I don't get it.

You don't get it?

99% of Canadians couldn't care less about the population stats. 95% of Canadians couldn't care less about what is happening outside of their backyard 95% of the time. Indifference is universal. The Quebec contingent on SSP is very much interested in population and what others in English Canada think of them just by all the shit flinging versus discussions.

You're like a magician that attempts to convince the audience over and over again that he has never met this person before.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by WhipperSnapper

You don't get it?

99% of Canadians couldn't care less about the population stats. 95% of Canadians couldn't care less about what is happening outside of their backyard 95% of the time. Indifference is universal. The Quebec contingent on SSP is very much interested in population and what others in English Canada think of them just by all the shit flinging versus discussions.

You're like a magician that attempts to convince the audience over and over again that he has never met this person before.

I've lost count of the number of times I've said on here that this splendid indifference of the majority of Quebecers to the rest of the country is probably not a good thing, and is really shooting ourselves in the foot sometimes.

While I think you're right for the most part, I'd still submit that the number of people in Quebec City who know that their city is of comparable size to Winnipeg and Hamilton (and therefore in a theoretical "race" to a million with them) is much, much smaller than the number of people in Ottawa who'd be aware that its comparables are Calgary and Edmonton.

[Beedok]

Originally Posted by Acajack

I've lost count of the number of times I've said on here that this splendid indifference of the majority of Quebecers to the rest of the country is probably not a good thing, and is really shooting ourselves in the foot sometimes.

While I think you're right for the most part, I'd still submit that the number of people in Quebec City who know that their city is of comparable size to Winnipeg and Hamilton (and therefore in a theoretical "race" to a million with them) is much, much smaller than the number of people in Ottawa who'd be aware that its comparables are Calgary and Edmonton.

I would guess that the number for Hamilton and Winnipeg knowing would also be much lower than the Calgary-Ottawa-Edmonton trio. All three cities have a lower overall profile in the nation.

[davidivivid]

I won't venture a guess as to which city will reach the million mark first but I will chime in as to Quebec City's current demographic situation. The low population growth and immigration in Quebec has already become a big problem. The uneployement rate in March was 4.1% and though certain municipal and provincial politicians were quick to cast Quebec as a economic success story, which is partly true, they failed to identify the biggest problem underlined by such a statistic: labour shortage. Already the single biggest problem facing companies in the city, it will only get worse if the pace of population growth doesn't accelerate in the next few years. A survey was recently sent to business owners and once again this year, the issue of worker recruitment and retention were the respondents' primary concern, with a staggering 85% of respondents having experienced difficulty recruiting qualified people.

During the last job fair which took place at the end of march, about 14 500 jobs were available (83% of which were full time positions) and less then 12 000 attended the fair (about 55% of whom found a job).

A lot has been done by the current municipal administration to promote Quebec City as a great place to live and work in order to attract more immigrants, both domestic and international, but the results are slow to come by. I really don't care about who reaches the million first but I do care about economic growth and it is imperative for the government to lure more people in our great City. As far as domestic migration is concerned, our proximity with Montreal hasn't been a concern as of late since we lose as much as we gain people from La Métrople. However, our proximity to this much bigger city certainly has a big impact on our ability to attract international immigrants...

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by davidivivid

I won't venture a guess as to which city will reach the million mark first but I will chime in as to Quebec City's current demographic situation. The low population growth and immigration in Quebec has already become a big problem. The uneployement rate in march was 4.1% and though certain municipal and provincial politicians were quick to cast Quebec as a economic success story, which is partly true, they failed to identify the biggest problem underlined by such a statistic: labour shortage. Already the single biggest problem facing companies in the city, it will only get worse if the pace of population growth doesn't accelerate in the next few years. A survey was recently sent to business owners and once again this year, the issue of worker recruitment and retention were the respondents' primary concern, with a staggering 85% of respondents having experienced difficulty recruiting qualified people.

During the last job fair which took place at the end of march, about 14 500 jobs were available (83% of which were full time positions) and less then 12 000 attended the fair (about 55% of whom found a job).

A lot has been done by the current municipal administration to promote Quebec City as a great place to live and work in order to attract more immigrants, both domestic and international, but the results are slow to come by. I really don't care about who reaches the million first but I do care about economic growth and it is imperative for the government to lure more people in our great City. As far as domestic migration is concerned, our proximity with Montreal hasn't been a concern as of late since we lose as much as we gain people from La Métrople. However, our proximity to this much bigger city certainly has a big impact on our ability to attract international immigrants...

A good example of Quebec kinda shooting itself in the foot.

[hipster duck]

Given that Quebec is kind of the Harvard of Francophone global immigration, it's kind of strange that QC is striking out.

It has all the things I'd want in a city: it's got good urban amenities, it's close to dramatic nature and it isn't far from Montreal or other, populated parts of North America. If I were more fluent in French, it would be very high up on my list of places to move.

[balletomane]

Does either Hamilton or Quebec City have any reports on population projections? The City of Winnipeg released one in 2016 which states the CMA will reach 1 million by 2035, based on growing by about 10,500 annually. I hope the city will reach that mark sooner, because it might force the city to modernize its infrastructure. The past five years, the CMA has grown on average by about 13,000, (17,000 from 2015 to 2016) compared to 7,000 for Hamilton and 6,000 for Quebec.

http://www.winnipeg.ca/finance/files...c-Forecast.pdf

[GreaterMontréal]

Originally Posted by balletomane

Does either Hamilton or Quebec City have any reports on population projections? The City of Winnipeg released one in 2016 which states the CMA will reach 1 million by 2035, based on growing by about 10,500 annually. I hope the city will reach that mark sooner, because it might force the city to modernize its infrastructure. The past five years, the CMA has grown on average by about 13,000, (17,000 from 2015 to 2016) compared to 7,000 for Hamilton and 6,000 for Quebec.

http://www.winnipeg.ca/finance/files...c-Forecast.pdf

Quebec City to hit 1M in 2046.

[balletomane]

Originally Posted by GreaterMontréal

Quebec City to hit 1M in 2046.

So I guess they're also going with that "slow and steady" approach, anticipating the CMA will continue growing at about 6,000 annually? I wonder why cities like Quebec and Winnipeg don't try to increase their growth rate, obviously its not as easy as it is written, and strength doesn't only come in numbers, but sometimes I wonder if a continuation of the status quo means their is a lack of vision in municipal politics. "Slow and steady" can be healthy, but if their is a lack of broader vision it can come also be a detriment to the city's growth.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't Hamilton to Toronto as San Jose is to San Francisco or Fort Worth is to Dallas? How much does the primary city effect the growth of the secondary city in those two instances?

[mistercorporate]

Originally Posted by Vorkuta

Okotoks.

Nah, Okotoks belongs in the which city will hit 10 million thread.

[jmt18325]

Originally Posted by balletomane

So I guess they're also going with that "slow and steady" approach, anticipating the CMA will continue growing at about 6,000 annually? I wonder why cities like Quebec and Winnipeg don't try to increase their growth rate

Isn't that exactly what Winnipeg has been doing?

[GreaterMontréal]

Originally Posted by balletomane

So I guess they're also going with that "slow and steady" approach, anticipating the CMA will continue growing at about 6,000 annually? I wonder why cities like Quebec and Winnipeg don't try to increase their growth rate, obviously its not as easy as it is written, and strength doesn't only come in numbers, but sometimes I wonder if a continuation of the status quo means their is a lack of vision in municipal politics. "Slow and steady" can be healthy, but if their is a lack of broader vision it can come also be a detriment to the city's growth.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't Hamilton to Toronto as San Jose is to San Francisco or Fort Worth is to Dallas? How much does the primary city effect the growth of the secondary city in those two instances?

The Montréal-Quebec City corridor should have a population of at least 8.5M by 2046. I don't think we should worry about Quebec City. The A-20 and the A-40 are always loaded with traffic between the two cities. The high growth scenario projection for Quebec is 10.64M by 2046, so the corridor could even exceed 9M.

[balletomane]

Originally Posted by jmt18325

Isn't that exactly what Winnipeg has been doing?

Yes, they have. Its just that the city's population forecast projects the CMA to add 10,500 on average annually. It makes me think that the larger growth of the past five years or so is just considered "temporary". Of course there are other factors to consider decades down the road, such as the shrinking household size and lower fertility rates, but increasing immigration and curbing provincial migration could easily sustain a growth of 12,000 to 15,000 annually. Manitoba still loses at least 5,000 residents to other provinces annually, even shrinking that number to half that would be a huge positive.

[Beedok]

Originally Posted by balletomane

Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't Hamilton to Toronto as San Jose is to San Francisco or Fort Worth is to Dallas? How much does the primary city effect the growth of the secondary city in those two instances?

I always got the impression Forth Worth was at most akin to Oshawa, if not more like Oakville.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by Acajack

While I think you're right for the most part, I'd still submit that the number of people in Quebec City who know that their city is of comparable size to Winnipeg and Hamilton (and therefore in a theoretical "race" to a million with them) is much, much smaller than the number of people in Ottawa who'd be aware that its comparables are Calgary and Edmonton.

I think the number of people in Quebec City who are aware that there's a city named Hamilton that exists somewhere in Ontario is very low. Winnipeg on the other hand, sure, it's a provincial capital and a big Prairie hub. Basic schoolclass geography.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by lio45

I think the number of people in Quebec City who are aware that there's a city named Hamilton that exists somewhere in Ontario is very low. Winnipeg on the other hand, sure, it's a provincial capital and a big Prairie hub. Basic schoolclass geography.

They also have an NHL club. People should not underestimate the influence of sports on general knowledge about places.