Canadian Foreign Policy & Affairs II

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by Acajack

Cease-fire.
Cease-fire.
Cease-fire.

And then what?


(crickets)

Israel leaves the occupied territories including Jerusalem. And probably waits a few years for an emboldened Palestine to demand more.

[savevp]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

Israel leaves the occupied territories including Jerusalem. And probably waits a few years for an emboldened Palestine to demand more.

You missed the bit where six months from now, Hamas rockets start landing in Israel again, Iranian arms and money start flowing back into Gaza, Hamas take over the West Bank from the PA, and the Palestinians start a third Intifada with the aid of Hezbollah. Ceasefire!

[casper]

Originally Posted by savevp

You missed the bit where six months from now, Hamas rockets start landing in Israel again, Iranian arms and money start flowing back into Gaza, Hamas take over the West Bank from the PA, and the Palestinians start a third Intifada with the aid of Hezbollah. Ceasefire!

Multiple paths.

Another possible path, negotiation is undertaken between Palestinians and Israel to end all of this.

I fear the one you present has the highest probability of occurring.

[Truenorth00]

Pakistan is working to deport 1.7M Afghan refugees including using force where necessary. The same number of people as there are in Gaza. Guesses as to how many protests we see around the world about this?

https://www.france24.com/en/live-new...n-deportations

This is the country that was ever second largest recipient of foreign aid (behind Israel) from the US, for a while. Also the country that a ton of people demanded we give unconditional aid to, because of climate disasters. They tried to guilt the first world into giving them billions. I had some testy discussions on some forums for arguing that climate policy and aid should be tied to foreign policy.

[niwell]

Aside from the obvious differences that’s a spurious argument. There’s been relatively lite coverage on the ethnic cleansing undertaken by Azerbaijan too (supported by Israel at that). Doesn’t excuse it. And there are protests in that part of the world.

These weird value judgements and arguments about proportionality are very offputting even if to be expected.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by niwell

Aside from the obvious differences that’s a spurious argument. There’s been relatively lite coverage on the ethnic cleansing undertaken by Azerbaijan too (supported by Israel at that). Doesn’t excuse it. And there are protests in that part of the world.

These weird value judgements and arguments about proportionality are very offputting even if to be expected.

I think it's very telling. There's a clear hierarchy of victimhood. And some of it is actually rooted in the racism at the core of Islamic culture (not the faith itself which doesn't establish a racial hierarchy) that privileges Arabs over the rest of the Umma. Some Muslims are clearly worth more than others.

What's concerning is Western progressives not understanding this racism and privileging some causes over others.

[VANRIDERFAN]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

What's concerning is Western progressives not understanding this racism and privileging some causes over others.

Only ethnic Europeans are racist. Didn't you get the memo?

[niwell]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

I think it's very telling. There's a clear hierarchy of victimhood. And some of it is actually rooted in the racism at the core of Islamic culture (not the faith itself which doesn't establish a racial hierarchy) that privileges Arabs over the rest of the Umma. Some Muslims are clearly worth more than others.

This is reflected in cultures worldwide, no? One only has to look at a relatively recent history of Europe to identify favoured cultures that from a broad outside perspective could be considered as "the same" from a religious/ethnic viewpoint. Being Catholic didn't immediately paint someone as sympathetic to Ireland. Not to mention the Balkans... South America and (sub-Saharan) Africa are equally complicated in this respect.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

I think it's very telling. There's a clear hierarchy of victimhood. And some of it is actually rooted in the racism at the core of Islamic culture (not the faith itself which doesn't establish a racial hierarchy) that privileges Arabs over the rest of the Umma. Some Muslims are clearly worth more than others.

What's concerning is Western progressives not understanding this racism and privileging some causes over others.

Even among their Muslim brethren the Palestinians don't actually get much love except as a convenient spark to constantly ignite the flame of hatred for Jews and Israel.

[Acajack]

I don't think Nasrallah is announcing it this morning, but assuming that Hezbollah (much more powerful than Hamas) decides to jump in at some point, it makes me extremely uneasy that they could give Israel a real run for its money and this could pull the US and the West into this war in order to prevent Israel from getting completely wiped out.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by niwell

This is reflected in cultures worldwide, no? One only has to look at a relatively recent history of Europe to identify favoured cultures that from a broad outside perspective could be considered as "the same" from a religious/ethnic viewpoint. Being Catholic didn't immediately paint someone as sympathetic to Ireland. Not to mention the Balkans... South America and (sub-Saharan) Africa are equally complicated in this respect.

Catholics around the world don't get together to protest for some oppressed Catholic group somewhere. That's the difference.

Whereas in the Islamic world, their leaders love to speak to the idea of the Ummah and routinely whip up fervour fervour over the Israel-Palestine conflict and paint it almost as a test of loyalty or faith or even an existential struggle, all while pushing lots of their own heinous crimes at home or ignoring crimes elsewhere.

So Iranian Ayatollahs will scream loudly about Palestine while killing Iranian youth standing up to the regime. And Pakistan has huge protests for Palestine, but many of those protesters are more than happy to see their military use force against Afghan refugees.

Usually, I'd argue their hypocrisy is their business. But given how much disproportionate sympathy there is for the Palestinian cause, I'd argue that we are now being made party to that hypocrisy.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by Acajack

Even among their Muslim brethren the Palestinians don't actually get much love except as a convenient spark to constantly ignite the flame of hatred for Jews and Israel.

Having grown up in the UAE with Palestinian classmates, I'm well aware of the racial and religious hierarchy in that part of the world.

Local Arabs > Gulf Arabs > Whites > other Arabs > Asian Muslims > Other Asians > Palestinians > Blacks.

Situationally, a bit of this is interchangeable 1-2 levels in either direction.

The racism was almost comical. If you pre-order food at a restaurant and a local Arab walks in and wants the same thing, they'll give your food to him and make you wait. Having seen that kind of racism, you can imagine my skepticism when they become all about Palestinians every time conflict flares up in the Levant.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Catholics around the world don't get together to protest for some oppressed Catholic group somewhere. That's the difference.

Whereas in the Islamic world, their leaders love to speak to the idea of the Ummah and routinely whip up fervour fervour over the Israel-Palestine conflict and paint it almost as a test of loyalty or faith or even an existential struggle, all while pushing lots of their own heinous crimes at home or ignoring crimes elsewhere.

So Iranian Ayatollahs will scream loudly about Palestine while killing Iranian youth standing up to the regime. And Pakistan has huge protests for Palestine, but many of those protesters are more than happy to see their military use force against Afghan refugees.

Usually, I'd argue their hypocrisy is their business. But given how much disproportionate sympathy there is for the Palestinian cause, I'd argue that we are now being made party to that hypocrisy.

This last part is starting to freak me out a bit.

[Wigs]

~3800 children and ~2,400 women are now dead. Hundreds of people are buried under rubble.

The child deaths in 28 days is roughly 7 times more than known child deaths in Ukraine from almost 2 years of War with Russia.

If you want to argue casualty numbers, approximately 11% (The Economist) of Gaza's building stock is damaged. Approximately 225,000 (NY Times) no longer have a home in which to return.


https://www.nytimes.com/section/todayspaper

[1overcosc]

Originally Posted by Acajack

I don't think Nasrallah is announcing it this morning, but assuming that Hezbollah (much more powerful than Hamas) decides to jump in at some point, it makes me extremely uneasy that they could give Israel a real run for its money and this could pull the US and the West into this war in order to prevent Israel from getting completely wiped out.

I'm more about Lebanon being wiped out in this scenario.. Lebanon's already in shambles.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

I'm more about Lebanon being wiped out in this scenario.. Lebanon's already in shambles.

It really feels like we're entering a path of a thousand dangers right now.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

I'm more about Lebanon being wiped out in this scenario.. Lebanon's already in shambles.

Consider that Israel didn’t even have to do anything for stuff like this to happen in Lebanon, so imagine if they actually tried

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=wqKn_3iJOP4

[Truenorth00]

Closer to home.... My favourite think tank (that I actually subscribe to) and one of my favourite defence analysts was asked to look at Canada's fighter force and found some major problems. None of this is a surprise to anybody in uniform. But could be news to the public.

A Leaked Report Finds That Canada’s Small Fighter Fleet ‘is in Crisis’

A report commissioned by Canada’s Department of National Defence assessed that the country’s small, old CF-18 Hornet fleet may not be able to meet its commitments.

The report, prepared by the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), a well-respected British think-tank, was funded by the Canadian Department of National Defence (DND) and classified as “Not for Public Release”. However, copy was leaked to Canada’s The Globe And Mail newspaper.

Among its conclusions is that the Royal Canadian Air Force fighter fleet, entirely comprised of CF-18 Hornets - a mix of decades-old F/A-18A-B models and more recently acquired ex-Australian F/A-18A-Bs - “is not credible in a NATO context against many of the higher-end mission sets”.

The RCAF also has international obligations to fulfill to NORAD (North American Aerospace Defense Command) which provides an airborne early warning and threat interception umbrella over Canada, Alaska and the continental United States. In that role, just 36 of the RCAF’s CF-18s are equipped with contemporary-standard AESA (active electronically scanned array) radars (AN/APG-79V(4).

The RUSI report’s author, Justin Bronk, cited additional concerns aside from aging equipment, asserting that the RCAF fighter force is “suffering from low morale, high rates of departure among instructor pilots and a shortage of maintenance technicians, impairing its ability to meet defence obligations to allies”.

.....

Canada expects to receive its first four F-35As beginning in 2026, another six in 2027, and six more in 2028, with the full fleet to arrive in time to enable the phase out of the CF-18s by the end of 2032. But its CF-18 fleet, even bolstered by the purchase of 18 ex-Royal Australian Air Force F/A-18A-Bs, may not be able to effectively hang on until then.

Among its challenges, the RUSI report identified a “very inefficient” spare-parts supply process, “poor aircraft availability,” “unsustainable pilot workload” and a marked “trust gap” in how captain and major-ranked pilots view their leadership.

The Globe And Mail quoted from the report which starkly notes that; “Resignation and retirement rates among experienced instructor pilots and weapons instructors have been unsustainably high for years, and in such a small fighter force, have now become an immediate threat to its viability... Urgent action must be taken now, before the decline becomes completely irreversible.”
....

The RUSI report recommended actions including the addition of more maintenance and support equipment, and the hiring of civilian contractors to reduce the administrative workload for air crew.

However, as The Globe And Mail noted, its author cautions that, “there will be insufficient experienced pilots to effectively transition the force onto the F-35 whilst maintaining any meaningful combat capabilities in the remaining two CF-18 HEP II squadrons out to 2032.”

Increasing frustration among RCAF fighter crews also arises from their perception that they are inadequately trained or equipped for many of the missions they are likely to be deployed for the report adds. That concern has led to both anxiety and discontent among RCAF pilots.
....
The bottom line is that Canada’s force projection and homeland defense capability as exemplified by its fighter fleet is razor thin. There are serious questions as to whether a force that “is in crisis” can be a reliable allied partner.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/ericteg...in-crisis/amp/

[Hybrid247]

Meant to respond to this sooner, but didn't have a chance.

Originally Posted by someone123

The Hamas charter says that they'd like to destroy Israel and establish an Islamic theocracy through jihad. This isn't a minority group in Gaza, it's the government. A comparable situation would be if say the Knesset passed some resolutions saying they wanted to kill or push all Palestinians/Arabs out of Israel and establish a Jewish theocracy.

A few things to mention here. Firstly, there hasn't been an election in Gaza since 2006 and Hamas only won back then by a slim margin. In real terms, the number of adults that voted for them accounts for a relatively small fraction of the population now, so it's pretty non-sensical to compare them to the Israeli government as though they are a legitimate elected government body.

Secondly, based on the latest polls that I've seen, Hamas' stated goal to destroy Israel does not reflect the opinion and desires of the majority in Gaza. Over 50% support a two-state solution along the 1967 borders, and an even greater majority support a peaceful resolution to the conflict.

Lastly, if you consider yourself a reasonable person and have an issue with Hamas calling for the destruction of Israel (which you should), then you should equally have an issue with the following Israeli government actions and statements:

- The continued expansion of Illegal Israeli settlements - this amounts to ethnic cleansing and the active destruction of Palestine, not merely the threat of it.
- Netanyahu presenting his "New Middle East" Map at the UN with Israel covering the entirety of Palestinian Territories during his UN speech, which is equivalent to the "River to the Sea" chants from Palestinian supporters, except this is coming from the Prime Minister of Israel himself.
- The Israeli Minister of National Security, Ben Gvir, is himself an illegal settler and religious extremist who believes in Jewish supremacy over Palestinians, and who explicitly supports colonial policies and agendas.

So, to circle back to your comment, the Israeli government is in effect advocating, supporting and enacting policies for the destruction of Palestine, which is underpinned by religious extremism and supremacist ideology.

Originally Posted by someone123

Hamas says they want to wipe out Israel, not that they want Israelis to be nice to them. It's unclear what specific increased tensions the Hamas attack were a response to. Hamas is playing a "spoiler" role along with Hezbollah and Iran and likely concerned about self-preservation as a regime and as individuals. The leadership goals won't align fully with Palestinians as a whole.

I agree with your latter point. Hamas is only concerned with self preservation and I suspect that its recent attack was an attempt to stem its declining support and popularity, which wasn't all that high to begin with, by provoking an Israeli response to that would harm the general populace of Gaza.

[someone123]

The level of popular support for Hamas in Gaza is a mystery but at the end of the day they run the government and decide when to fire the rockets. I don't think there is an independent Haredim military force that will unilaterally attack Gaza. The Israeli government keeps a lid on that potential stuff. Something to consider for people who say it would be so great if there were no Israel.

I think there are valid criticisms of Israel but the lists of grievances don't necessarily connect with current events in a concrete way. Israel's leaders have to operate under constraints like trying to minimize deaths of their own citizens. You're not going to get something like Israel bombing Gaza 5% less because the list of West Bank grievances was a bit worse this year. It's just not a useful framework for looking at what's happening.

And there's something about trotting out the list of grievances against a group as they're counting up the dead babies from a large-scale terrorist attack. Chances are if you do this you are not dispassionate about said group.