The future of Hamilton's public transit

[thistleclub]

Anything is possible as long as council is willing to stand by strategy in the face of push-back from constituents habitually allergic to incremental tax levies. As the article notes, one of the unanswered questions here is "Which taxpayers will pay for a needed expansion of transit into the suburbs?" (Is that the sound of the area rating debate reopening? Quite possibly, given that LRT has been essentially taken out of the picture.)

The HSR's updated service standards under the Ten Year Transit Strategy include an average minimum ridership to support certain levels of service (i.e. service productivity). Minimum service frequency is 30 minute headway peak/off-peak and 60-minute headway in the evening. Service productivity is 25 boardings/service hour at weekday peak, 15 per service hour weekday off-peak and all Saturday/Sunday service. Any routes falling below that threshold get flagged for review or reduced service levels.

At the same time, the service standards set a maximum ridership threshold that get flagged for review and can lead to added service capacity: that would be 125 riders per hour at weekday peak, 100 per hour all other times.

Those service standards were to have been in effect by now but council has been pussyfooting around implementation so it's not clear how far along we are on that front.

In 2017, council opted to pause the Ten Year Transit Strategy as it was entering its third year in order to defer $2M in transit improvements (among other items) and, in doing so, reduce a tax hike from 1.8% to 1.2%. Three years later, they're talking about $4.3M in transit improvements, supported in part by a 5¢ fare hike that is probably expected to net $1M.

That 1.5% fare hike will play out city-wide, however, so it's possible that unless there is a proportionate enhancement to transit city-wise, that ridership projections may not be met. The fare:ridership formulae that were contained in the Ten Year Local Transit Transit Strategy presentation are as follows:

• 1% increase in fares = 0.2% to 0.5% decrease in ridership
• 1% increase in service = 0.5% to 0.7% increase in ridership

Because service enhancements are being focused in areas intended to grow ridership, most riders will only experience the hike, so council can expect that ridership numbers may plateau or decline despite this investment.

The gravitational pull of service productivity is a central challenge for connecting Waterdown to the rest of the HSR, since Waterdown is so distant from the rest of Hamilton and there is no transit service whatsoever in Flamborough. HSR routes 18 and 9 are bound by a service agreement with Burlington Transit in which they are reportedly barred from taking on boardings while operating inside of Burlington; disembarking is another story. Even if you extended route 18 to connect with route 9 — and you certainly could make a case for marrying the two low-productivity routes — there's still a 20-minute one-way drive between the two termini as they currently exist. That's a substantial chunk of every service hour that's just dead weight. (Historically, Waterdown has only had marginally better transit service than Flamborough. It was apparently piloted in 1994 under regional government and cancelled the following year, eventually reinstated seven years after amalgamation.)

[LikeHamilton]

From the Spectator on one of counsels request at their Feb. 24 general issues committee meeting.

• Requesting which transit routes are low performing. Ancaster Coun. Lloyd Ferguson said the transit system is moving seven million less passengers than the 10-year transit plan project, yet the community is spending more money on the program. He wants the passenger information so the less used routes can be eliminated this year;

[matt602]

Here we go again. Every effort that's made to grow the HSR is continually set back by suburban councilors looking to chop service back to keep already pathetic funding levels where they are.

I don't remember anybody questioning the police budget increase in any way at all.

[matt602]

Absolutely nobody will be surprised when they finally report back with an idea to expand a highway or build a bare bones BRT system with all of the same drawbacks of LRT but none of the advantages.

[ScreamingViking]

When a plan is not executed the way it was intended, of course the results will not be what were projected.

I don't recall what may have changed in terms of specific transit projects/expansions, but council did set things back by delaying funding for the 10-year plan a couple of years ago.

And the bar is low re: the status quo of Hamilton transit. It's going to take a lot of investment and service improvement before the results come close to meeting expectations.

[thistleclub]

That Feb 24 motion has borne fruit, and council has voted to drop 19,000 HSR service hours, with most of the routes impacted serving Wards 1-5 — without public consultation and in advance of a system-wide two-year audit that will land at council three months from now.

Public works head Dan McKinnon said the cash-saving cuts are intended to have "minimal impact" on riders in a bus network that offers nearly 900,000 hours of service a year. But when asked if staff support the service cuts, McKinnon told councillors "the timing is terrible."

He noted the city is in the middle of a major "Re-envision the HSR" study that involved public consultation and a partnership with McMaster University researchers. The results of that two-year study, which is expected to overhaul HSR routes and improve transit, should come to council in June.

"To have this conversation a year from now would be much more meaningful and valuable," he said.


Routes 6-9, 11, 16, 18, 33-35 are all identified as failing to meet service standards (i.e. fare boardings) for existing service levels, although some of the service reductions target routes that are not underperforming as a whole, but which the HSR feel could be offset by recently expanded 10 service.

Appendix B of PW20015:

Weekday service on 1 King

"This is not an unperforming [sic] time period, however, introduction of extended B line service between 7pm and 9pm in Fall 2019 will offset the need for 10 minute King service and will support the change."

Sat service on 3 Cannon

"The route is operating just above the service standard of 15 boardings/hour at 15.75 boardings/hour and could support a reduction in frequency based on current demand."

Sat/Sun service on 5 Delaware ("east end underperforming")

"This is not an unperforming [sic] time period, however, a 2 min reduction from 10 min truck frequency to 12 min truck frequency and a 6 min tail reduction could be handle demand across the route were r'tic buses to be allocated to route (approx 10 more boardings per hour per bus with a capacity increase of 18 additional seats on an r'tic)"

This has the additional effect of impacting the corridor that generates 40% of HSR ridership/revenue, not to mention the rationale for rapid transit investment.

[realcity]

"Re-envision the HSR" study that involved public consultation and a partnership with McMaster University researchers.

so another study paid for will be ignored by council against staff recommendations. How would the city ever expect to be able to handle LRT? It's not like they're going to layoff drivers, I don't know how this saves that much $ But yet keep raising fares. Get rid of but tx too. I'm a bus ticket buyer and user always keep them in my wallet and I have a ton of them I won't use by June 1. Pain in the ass Presto cards.

[thistleclub]

HSR drivers ask for hand sanitizer, more bus cleaning to protect against coronavirus
(Hamilton Spectator, Mathew Van Dongen, Mar 5 2020)

Hamilton's transit union is asking the city to help protect HSR drivers from the novel coronavirus by providing hand sanitizer and cleaning buses more frequently.

Transit agencies around the world are adopting new precautions in response to the growing threat of COVID-2019, which has infected more than 90,000 people globally including 20 in Ontario. So far, no Hamilton resident has tested positive for the disease.

Eric Tuck, president of ATU Local 107, said he has asked the HSR to provide hand sanitizer to all bus drivers while they're on the road. Provincial transit agency Metrolinx recently announced it is installing hand sanitizers on GO buses and in stations.

"It's a basic safety precaution we had during past (viral outbreaks) like SARS," he said, referring to the severe acute respiratory syndrome outbreak that infected hundreds of people in Ontario in 2002. "We think it would be a good idea to bring back that safety measure now."

Read it in full here.

[matt602]

The same suburban councilors who try to fashion themselves as the defenders of the HSR when it comes to anti-LRT rhetoric. The minute LRT is off the table, they're back to trying to chip the HSR down as much as they possibly can.

[thistleclub]

Originally Posted by matt602

The same suburban councillors who try to fashion themselves as the defenders of the HSR when it comes to anti-LRT rhetoric. The minute LRT is off the table, they're back to trying to chip the HSR down as much as they possibly can.

For sure. And they're often the ones promoting BRT as their preferred alternative, even though they don't really mean BRT, but just "more buses".

Cutting fare-offset service on routes that are meeting service levels while subsidizing fare-free service (99 Waterfront Shuttle, Winona Peach Fest) that is falling short of service standards is another masterstroke.

[SteelTown]

HSR buses now free to ride, passengers must enter from rear doors due to coronavirus
The seats directly behind drivers must remain vacant and passengers must stay behind the yellow line

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/hamil...irus-1.5501569

In another response to promote social distancing and tend for the city's most vulnerable, HSR buses will be free to ride, but passengers must enter through the rear doors.

The city of Hamilton said in a release it is implementing the measures starting Thursday, March 19.

"Customers are asked to stay behind the yellow line at the front of the bus, and to keep the seat(s) behind the operator free at all times," reads the release.

"HSR continues to be a safe method of travel, this is a precautionary measure in an effort to increase social distancing, particularly for bus operators."

Paul Johnson, the director of the city's emergency operations centre, said on Tuesday the yellow line behind bus drivers has also been moved farther back.

This follows the city's recent moves to reduce weekday bus service to a Saturday schedule as ridership has been cut in half as people avoid one another.

As of Wednesday at noon, there are 15 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Hamilton and one of them is a result of community spread.

Community spread is considered the next stage in the spread of the disease as it loses that direct connection to people who had travelled to infected areas. It makes the social distancing measures being recommended all the more necessary.

[realcity]

should keep it free even after this is over

[Dr Awesomesauce]

When something like this happens, it calls into question the future of public transport, not just in Hamilton, but everywhere.

Inasmuch as I generally support investments in buses, trams, subways, etc., I, and so many other people who have the choice, don't really like the idea of being jammed into a tube with dozens of other people you've never met before. Does anybody?

For me, it's the one big, but unavoidable, flaw in the whole concept.

[Innsertnamehere]

The idea is that of course cars are more comfortable, but they come at an economic and environmental cost that is simply too much. The amount of infrastructure required, the cost of the vehicles themselves, and of course the environmental issues mean that public transit is a better alternative overall.

Not to mention the impact cars have on how cities are built. Car oriented cities are simply nowhere near as good as transit oriented communities for quality of life when you are not in the process of travelling. And I say this as someone who drives to work every day.

[TheRitsman]

Originally Posted by Innsertnamehere

The idea is that of course cars are more comfortable, but they come at an economic and environmental cost that is simply too much. The amount of infrastructure required, the cost of the vehicles themselves, and of course the environmental issues mean that public transit is a better alternative overall.

Not to mention the impact cars have on how cities are built. Car oriented cities are simply nowhere near as good as transit oriented communities for quality of life when you are not in the process of travelling. And I say this as someone who drives to work every day.

This is exactly it. Sure transit is bad for a once in 100 years pandemic, but it is good for everything else. The only thing that cars do amazingly better than transit is isolate people, which causes more social isolation and less desire to be involved in community.

The speaker who came to speak about taxes and land use planning recently said this: "people in urban areas, with little to no backyard and who take transit, give up their private space for public space."

This is why I think we see so many events, community and activities in the centre of the city rather than the suburbs. People become comfortable with being alone, or with only their few friends and kids. Transit and other forms of housing provide different styles of living and options for people who don't want to live in the cookie cutter white picket fence giant green lawn style of living. And providing this diversity is good for sustainability of our tax base and culture.

It's not fair to look at the current situation and say "ha! Transit is bad I told you!" Add to that the negative ideas people have about transit because the lowly poor and dirty take it. In Europe where everyone takes transit, this opinion of transit is not widespread.

Check out this for more about why transit fails in North America and why nobody but the poor takes it: https://youtu.be/RQY6WGOoYis

[Dr Awesomesauce]

Every once in a while I take the bus, just for sh**s and giggles.

Was at the MacNab terminal last month. A bunch of meth-heads came in and took over the men's toilet. The usual nonsense ensued. The security guard sat at his desk staring at his phone the whole time. In fairness, I'm not sure what he could have done that wouldn't have ended in something much worse transpiring. Anyway, despite the bitter cold, my wife and I left the terminal and waited outside for 10 minutes for our bus to arrive. Mid-way through our trip, a young guy with Tourette's got on and did his thing. Very upsetting, especially for my wife.

I take the bus enough to know that this was not a total outlier of a trip. Being in a confined space with these sorts of people is something I was willing to put up with when I was 23, but now that I'm married with children, well...

[lachlanholmes]

Task Force Report is out

link

[LikeHamilton]

Provincial task force recommends ‘higher order transit’ for Hamilton — like LRT — just month after Ontario cancelled an ongoing light rail project

By Matthew Van Dongen Spectator Reporter Thu., April 9, 2020

A provincial task force has recommended resurrecting a “higher-order transit” project in Hamilton — like light rail transit or bus rapid transit — just four months after Ontario’s government killed an ongoing LRT project.

What projects are actually funded and built, however, remains up to provincial Transportation Minister Caroline Mulroney.

Mulroney said Thursday she has asked Infrastructure Ontario and Metrolinx to further evaluate the recommendations.

The Progressive Conservative government abruptly killed Hamilton’s light rail transit project in December — after 60 building purchases and in the middle of construction bidding — citing anticipated cost overruns.

Facing fierce public blowback, Mulroney then assembled a five-person task force to study alternative projects for Hamilton that could be paid for with the $1-billion former LRT budget.

The province has been heavily criticized over the task force’s secret meetings, refusal to allow public delegations or other oversight of a study with massive ramifications for the city.

Today, the task force was allowed to release its preliminary recommendations report to the public about three weeks after it was submitted to the minister. Mulroney was slated to meet virtually on Thursday with task force members ahead of the release.

Speculation early on by both LRT fans and opponents was that light rail might be resurrected in the recommendations — in part because the task force included representatives from the city and past light rail project supporters LIUNA and ArcelorMittal Dofasco.

A retired journalist and a McMaster University transportation expert are also on the task force.

Late last month, senior LIUNA vice-president Joe Mancinelli — who memorably ‘disinvited’ Premier Doug Ford to the union Christmas party over the LRT cancellation — said he still believed Hamilton would get a light rail project at some point.

“The federal government is prepared to get involved and the provincial government ... seems to be anxious to jump back into the LRT,” he said, while making clear he had not seen the task force recommendations.

“The bottom line is where there is a will, there is a way.”

More to come.Matthew Van Dongen is a Hamilton-based reporter covering transportation for the Spectator. Reach him via email: mvandongen@thespec.com

https://www.thespec.com/news/hamilto...rce-today.html

[Innsertnamehere]

So the preference is clearly for the LRT.

My guess is the conservatives will go to the feds and see if they can get money from them to fund the “gap”.

This whole thing is essentially a giant show to reduce the provinces contribution to the project.

[LikeHamilton]

Summary of preliminary recommendations

1. The Task Force’s general recommendation is to invest the $1 billion in higher-order transit, because these projects are expected to bring substantial benefits to the residents and businesses of the City of Hamilton.
2. The Task Force’s initial preference is for an intra-city higher-order transit project that addresses the City of Hamilton’s transportation needs such as current and future demand and congestion. This could either be an LRT on the B-Line or BRTs on the B- and A-Lines (with additional complementary priority bus projects as part of the BLAST network). The LRT option on the B-Line could include the original project scope (if additional capital funding is identified), or a truncated version of the original project as a first phase provided the benefits meet or exceed the benefits of the original project and exceed the benefits of projects on the preliminary list of recommendations. The Task Force recommends that the Province and Metrolinx consider both of these projects equally and undertake further analysis concurrently to determine which project is the best fit for Hamilton’s transportation needs.
3. The Task Force recommends that contract award or project construction (for significant early work infrastructure at a minimum) begins within two years of the submission of this report, or March 16, 2022, in order to provide substantial benefits to the City of Hamilton in a timely manner. In order to meet this two-year timeline, the Task Force recommends the Province proceed with work to address the challenges for all three projects simultaneously as well as explore potential tools for accelerating delivery of its chosen transportation project(s) in Hamilton, in consultation with the City.
4. If, after further analysis, intra-city higher-order transit projects are not feasible, then the Task Force further recommends inter-city higher-order transit in the form of 15-minute two-way all-day GO rail service to Hamilton GO Centre station.
5. The Province should also confirm a contract can be awarded, or work can begin (for significant early work infrastructure at a minimum) within two years on the delivery of two-way, all-day 15-minute service to Hamilton GO Centre Station.
6. The Province should engage other levels of government to identify all potential capital funding contributions for a potential LRT project.
7. The Province should explore opportunities to reduce the cost of the potential LRT project including alternative delivery models and alternative financing structures and sources (e.g., Canada Infrastructure Bank).
8. If there is insufficient funding for the original LRT project scope, MTO should work with Metrolinx and Infrastructure Ontario to explore options to construct a segment of the LRT as a first phase. MTO should ensure the Phase 1 project can support a potential future LRT expansion. In the event that future phases do not materialize the shorter potential LRT route must illustrate greater transit benefits to the citizens of Hamilton when compared to the BRT/Commuter GO rail projects also recommended for investment by this Task Force.
9. As a BRT option would be developed within the limitations of the King-Main St. corridor (B-line BRT) and Upper James St. corridor (A-line BRT), an initial priority of any work should focus on determining the technical feasibility of having fully separated bus lanes with platform-level boarding. The Task Force is not convinced any form of transit that runs in mixed traffic will deliver appropriate benefits to the people and businesses of Hamilton.
10. The Province should confirm if the BRT projects can be implemented within the next two years and identify the possibility of project phasing to begin early works (e.g., leveraging the planning work completed for the LRT along the B-line; leveraging lessons learnt from the implementation of other BRTs like the viva BRT).
11. Undertake a business case for the BRTs and priority bus options to get refined benefits and costs estimates. This business case should also explore the benefits of e-buses and potential extensions (east and west extensions of the B-line BRT to Fifty Road-Queen Elizabeth Way and University Plaza, respectively; extension of A-line BRT from Rymal Road to Hamilton International Airport).
12. The Province should refine cost estimates for 15-minute, two-way, all-day GO service to Hamilton GO Centre Station, given wide range of current estimates.
13. The Task Force recommends the Province explore the potential benefits and impacts of 15-minute, two-way, all-day GO service to Hamilton GO Centre Station, including economic development uplift and effect on current transportation network. The Province should explore these potential benefits to determine if this project delivers substantial benefits over currently planned service increases to West Harbour GO Station.
14. The Province should conduct further analysis for each of the recommended higher-order transit projects to understand the potential benefits for goods movement.
15. For whichever transportation project(s) the Province chooses to deliver, the Province should work with the City to identify and fund complementary active transportation and local infrastructure projects that would improve the connectivity of the City’s transportation network.

Source
Hamilton Transportation Task Force Report
To the Minister of Transportation
March 16th, 2020