Quote:
Originally Posted by Norman Bates
I was responding to your use of "all cars" on the queensway. And I stand by my point that all cars will not be autonomous in your lifetime.
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Agreed. Unless human driving is banned, there will always be people wanting to drive, be it just for the joy of driving or wanting to drive their classic cars.
The real question is how many people will want this technology. Some great ideas flopped while others succeed. Marketing plays a huge role, making people believe they want it, but there are other untangibles that also play a role. We have had hybrid vehicles for well over a decade now, and still a small minority of vehicles on the road are hybrids. The average person just hasn't embraced the technology and seen the value for the money, and there aren't any trust issues with it.
If it succeeds, there are several factors that will determine how long it will take for most cars on the road to be drive automatically. First, how long does it take for most cars sold to have the feature and second, once they are, how long does it take for the old cars without to be retired. The former is hard to judge, but here in Ottawa, where salt use is high, the latter is probably quite short (in the 10 year time frame), but in warmer climates it is probably more like 15, 20 or even more years.
Unlike TVs, where many people threw away perfectly good CRT TVs to get a new flat screen HDTV because the cost was relatively low, cars are significantly more expensive and most people cant afford to just throw away a perfectly good one because it lacks a certain feature. Some will sell and buy new, but the old one is still on the road, just with a different owner. Only when the value gets so low that it isn't worth repairing does it get retired.