Grubb & Ellis calls Portland a top market
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Portland is one of the nation’s best markets for long-term investment in commercial real estate in all four major asset classes — office, industrial, retail and multifamily residential.
According to a forecast released Monday by Grubb & Ellis Co. (NYSE: GBE), the commercial real estate industry won’t begin to rebound until 2011, but economists anticipate the declines posted in 2009 will ease in 2010.
“Because commercial real estate lags the labor market, it still has a ways to go before reaching its own low point,” said Bob Bach, senior vice president and chief economist.
The forecast anticipates real estate transaction volumes, down some 85 percent from their 2007 peak, will begin to rebound in 2010 as distressed assets come on the market at steeply discounted prices.
For long term value, Grubb & Ellis ranks Portland in the hard-to-beat category, even though office vacancy rates are expected to hit a record-setting 19 percent by late 2010.
Thanks to its sprawl-fighting urban growth boundary, Portland ranks fourth in the nation for long-term investment in office properties, after Austin, Washington, D.C., and Los Angeles.
Industrial real estate will improve as global trade, freight shipments and increased manufacturing activity create more demand for space. Vacancy rates will hit 11.4 percent by late 2010, but West Coast ports such as Portland are poised to lead the recovery. Portland, at No. 9, joins Los Angeles, Houston, Atlanta, Oakland, Seattle, Dallas, Chicago and Philadelphia on the 10-to-watch list.
Retail real estate will continue to lag as consumers readjust spending and rebuild savings. Bach doesn’t anticipate new demand before 2011. Portland ranks ninth on the list of the top 10 retail markets, between San Diego and San Francisco.
The apartment market stands to benefit as baby boomers age and from declining rates of home ownership, which are expected to return to pre-bubble levels. Portland ranks No. 8 on the multifamily list, between Atlanta and Westchester County, N.Y.