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View Poll Results: When will the Bow be surpassed in height?
0-5 years 15 8.82%
5-10 years 59 34.71%
10-15 years 45 26.47%
15-20 years 20 11.76%
20-25 years 10 5.88%
25+ years 7 4.12%
Never, the world is ending in December 2012 14 8.24%
Voters: 170. You may not vote on this poll

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  #1  
Old Posted Jul 8, 2010, 9:44 PM
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When will the Bow be surpassed?

It took 27 years for another building to surpass Suncor Energy (Petro-Canada) Centre as the tallest building in Calgary. There are currently no buildings officially proposed to be taller right now.

How long do you think it will take for the Bow to be surpassed in height?

Any guesses whether it will be a corporate tower, a mixed use building, where in downtown?
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  #2  
Old Posted Jul 8, 2010, 10:04 PM
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My guess is about 8 years.
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  #3  
Old Posted Jul 8, 2010, 10:17 PM
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My guess was 10-15 years. There's certainly going to be a break in time before we see another huge office building. Perhaps 10 years.

Not sure it is possible in Calgary to get a primarily residential building that would be taller than 236 metres. I think a couple may flirt with 200m in the next decade though.
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  #4  
Old Posted Jul 8, 2010, 10:17 PM
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I'd say the same as YNAT. 8-10 ish years.
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  #5  
Old Posted Jul 8, 2010, 10:22 PM
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Considering how long this stuff takes to plan and build (never mind the magical elixir of timing, vision and money it takes to built a true icon), I think it's gotta be a minimum of 5 years.

Obviously hard to say, but I do think a certain psychological bar has been passed with height in this city....I think there will be more than a few proposals out there looking to knock the Bow off it's tall perch. All it will take is another boom....no way this thing leads the way for 27 years in terms of height.

Im terms of architectural standard though, it's going to be hard to beat no matter the height. This thing is a friggin' franchise player.
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  #6  
Old Posted Jul 8, 2010, 10:28 PM
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We heard a rumour about a 286m building a few weeks ago, I bet that one will happen, just not for a few years.
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  #7  
Old Posted Jul 8, 2010, 10:34 PM
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15-20 years.
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  #8  
Old Posted Jul 8, 2010, 10:36 PM
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5-10 years, my guess is a mixed use building.
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  #9  
Old Posted Jul 8, 2010, 10:37 PM
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Never, the world is ending in December 2012!

Hopefully by then my spaceship will be completed.
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  #10  
Old Posted Jul 8, 2010, 11:08 PM
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Come on Imperial Oil!!!
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  #11  
Old Posted Jul 8, 2010, 11:09 PM
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I voted 10-15 years. I don't see any real proposals for at least another 5 years. Tack on actual construction time and it'll be over 10.

I think our next tallest should be shaped like a giant Cowboy hat to reflect our western heritage.
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  #12  
Old Posted Jul 9, 2010, 3:27 AM
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It'll probably be 6-8 years, and when one goes up another will go at roughly the same time! IMO. The problem is office space isn't exactly going to be scarce for the next 3-5 years. Also the fact there isn't a huge demand to live DT, so it's hard to envision some residential tower going up over 236 meters (could see 2-3 200's though).
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  #13  
Old Posted Jul 9, 2010, 3:32 AM
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I think a mixed-use tower could be next. Perhaps high end hotel/condo/office. Hopefully less than 10.
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  #14  
Old Posted Jul 9, 2010, 3:34 AM
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A la 4 st Lacaille project.
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  #15  
Old Posted Jul 9, 2010, 3:50 AM
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If Calgary landed (highly doubtful), a large bank or two and/or a couple of huge advertising agencies, it might not be long at all. Incidentaly, those two industries tend to have employees that are more inclined to live in a high-rise condo or apartment. IMO
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  #16  
Old Posted Jul 9, 2010, 5:50 AM
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10-15 years.
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  #17  
Old Posted Jul 9, 2010, 5:53 AM
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With the global economy still suffering greatly from the recession, oil hovers at the $70-75 mark. Any hint of a full recovery sends it shooting towards $80 in a hell of a hurry. Meanwhile, wage and cost deflation has set in all over the place.

Remember when oil pushed past $100 and rents skyrocketed? Imagine what happens when oil hits $100 and the world economy is just barely doing "OK". Then imagine what happens when things get GOOD. Now, I think there's a reasonable chance this economic shitstorm goes on for years. But if we ever pull out of this... and if we ever manage to actually "boom" again... Calgary will see 5 towers in the 150-200m range. Just like the last boom. Only this time they'll need to go higher as we run out of space.

As other have mentioned, there's no chance of anything happening in the next 5 years. Remember, it's been nearly 4 since the Bow was announced, and it's just barely topped SEC today. But in the next 5 years we could see one or more major announcements, so 5-10? Yeah, that's where my money is if things get remotely close to booming again.

Again, beyond this being a very prolonged economic slowdown.
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  #18  
Old Posted Jul 9, 2010, 1:47 PM
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15-20 years is my vote.

The economy is shaky worldwide, it's very shaky in Calgary. The energy business is a long ways from recovering. There is a glut of office space coming on stream over the next couple of years. Even if the economy does recover in 3 years (big if) it will take another 3-5 to whittle down the vacancy rate. Then add on thinking time, planning time, and building time and you are looking at another 5 years or so. That puts you at close to 15 years, and that is before ANYTHING resembling a new large office tower is going to be built let alone one that will be the tallest.

Can't see residential doing it either.

Sorry guys but I just don't see it happening for a long time.
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  #19  
Old Posted Jul 9, 2010, 3:08 PM
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6 years + 2 to absorb the downtown office space that is vacant.
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  #20  
Old Posted Jul 10, 2010, 5:12 PM
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Your line of thought makes sense, but I want pass along some things to keep in mind.

- Today's situation isn't much different than it was in 1982, with respect to local and global economy, and I remember watching and reading lots of items about how Calgary was way overbuilt for office space. Specifically, I remember watching on the news one report where they interviewed an 'expert' who said that with the vacancy rate at 22%, it would be at least 20-25 years before we saw another office tower built in the city.
A mere five years later they were breaking ground on two new office towers; Amoco and Canterra.

- Ten years later in the early 90's, with the completion of Canterra, Amoco, Bankers Hall and TD Canada Trust, we had yet another glut of office space, and vacancy rates were in the high teens. Once again talk of how it would take years to absorb that kind of space. Once again, a mere 5 years later, ground breaks on TCPL, a 1 million sq ft office tower, shortly followed by Bankers Hall West, and the Ernst and Young tower.

Not that I expect a new office tower in 5 years, but if history has taught us anything you just can't tell with Calgary. I will bet that you'll see a new office tower break ground within 10 years. When will the Bow be surpassed? It could be a while.... I'm going with around 15-20 years.

Quote:
Originally Posted by lubicon View Post
15-20 years is my vote.

The economy is shaky worldwide, it's very shaky in Calgary. The energy business is a long ways from recovering. There is a glut of office space coming on stream over the next couple of years. Even if the economy does recover in 3 years (big if) it will take another 3-5 to whittle down the vacancy rate. Then add on thinking time, planning time, and building time and you are looking at another 5 years or so. That puts you at close to 15 years, and that is before ANYTHING resembling a new large office tower is going to be built let alone one that will be the tallest.

Can't see residential doing it either.

Sorry guys but I just don't see it happening for a long time.
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