Your line of thought makes sense, but I want pass along some things to keep in mind.
- Today's situation isn't much different than it was in 1982, with respect to local and global economy, and I remember watching and reading lots of items about how Calgary was way overbuilt for office space. Specifically, I remember watching on the news one report where they interviewed an 'expert' who said that with the vacancy rate at 22%, it would be at least 20-25 years before we saw another office tower built in the city.
A mere five years later they were breaking ground on two new office towers; Amoco and Canterra.
- Ten years later in the early 90's, with the completion of Canterra, Amoco, Bankers Hall and TD Canada Trust, we had yet another glut of office space, and vacancy rates were in the high teens. Once again talk of how it would take years to absorb that kind of space.
Once again, a mere 5 years later, ground breaks on TCPL, a 1 million sq ft office tower, shortly followed by Bankers Hall West, and the Ernst and Young tower.
Not that I expect a new office tower in 5 years, but if history has taught us anything you just can't tell with Calgary. I will bet that you'll see a new office tower break ground within 10 years. When will the Bow be surpassed? It could be a while.... I'm going with around 15-20 years.
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Originally Posted by lubicon
15-20 years is my vote.
The economy is shaky worldwide, it's very shaky in Calgary. The energy business is a long ways from recovering. There is a glut of office space coming on stream over the next couple of years. Even if the economy does recover in 3 years (big if) it will take another 3-5 to whittle down the vacancy rate. Then add on thinking time, planning time, and building time and you are looking at another 5 years or so. That puts you at close to 15 years, and that is before ANYTHING resembling a new large office tower is going to be built let alone one that will be the tallest.
Can't see residential doing it either.
Sorry guys but I just don't see it happening for a long time.
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