Office Market Discussion

[hollywoodnorth]

Originally Posted by LeftCoaster

Well we are for sure getting 3.

I predict we will get 4-5 in this cycle, which should take ~5-6 years to absorb.

100%
- MNP Tower
- Bentall Development
- Telus Building

One or two of the following
- Howe Building (Manulife)
- Rogers Arena building
- Credit Suisse Building
- A previously unannounced building

Hopefully the new supply can push prices down a bit, allowing businesses to expand and continue to function downtown.

rogers is a GO .... we know that for a fact. so that's 4 .. rogers is mixed so maybe only count it as .75

also Burrard Gateway will happen and that's a small tower there ... lets call it .25

I think we will get more like 5-6 in this cycle

[Prometheus]

Originally Posted by hollywoodnorth

also Burrard Gateway will happen...

Will it? We haven't heard a single thing about this project for about a half year now.

[red-paladin]

What about the Granville and Cordova tower? Didn't make the list?

[Metro-One]

Originally Posted by LeftCoaster

Well we are for sure getting 3.

I predict we will get 4-5 in this cycle, which should take ~5-6 years to absorb.

100%
- MNP Tower
- Bentall Development
- Telus Building

One or two of the following
- Howe Building (Manulife)
- Rogers Arena building
- Credit Suisse Building
- A previously unannounced building

Hopefully the new supply can push prices down a bit, allowing businesses to expand and continue to function downtown.

Hmmmmmm, does this tie into the rumors thread????

[EastVanMark]

Originally Posted by Hed Kandi

Vancouver is Canada’s Most Expensive Office Market



http://www.vancitybuzz.com/2012/02/v...office-market/

Thanks for the article. There is absolutely ZERO reason why Vancouver should have such ridiculous rent rates. This is a prime reason why companies refuse to move here and we have so much trouble retaining the ones that are located here. These new office towers can\t be built soon enough.

[officedweller]

Originally Posted by Metro-One

Hmmmmmm, does this tie into the rumors thread????

My thoughts too....

[queetz@home]

Originally Posted by EastVanMark

Thanks for the article. There is absolutely ZERO reason why Vancouver should have such ridiculous rent rates. This is a prime reason why companies refuse to move here and we have so much trouble retaining the ones that are located here. These new office towers can\t be built soon enough.

Unfortunately, Alberta Investment Management Corp. (AIMCo), Ivanhoe Cambridge and Matco Investments Ltd. do not own any of the lands where those proposed office buildings are, and to my knowledge, do not have any land in downtown Vancouver. They seem to be the type that have the guts to build with or without an anchor tenant, as they have successfully done with Eight Avenue Place in Calgary. We need developers like those in Vancouver so we wouldn't have the issues that you mentioned...

[s211]

Originally Posted by queetz@home

Unfortunately, Alberta Investment Management Corp. (AIMCo), Ivanhoe Cambridge and Matco Investments Ltd. do not own any of the lands where those proposed office buildings are, and to my knowledge, do not have any land in downtown Vancouver. They seem to be the type that have the guts to build with or without an anchor tenant, as they have successfully done with Eight Avenue Place in Calgary. We need developers like those in Vancouver so we wouldn't have the issues that you mentioned...

It wasn't guts that made them build on spec. The real reason they went spec at Eight Avenue is much more terrifying. Not sure if the real reason's ever been spilled on the web. If not, I'm not sure I want to be the one to spill the beans, but let me assure you that it wasn't because of guts that they went ahead.

[Wentworth]

Originally Posted by s211

It wasn't guts that made them build on spec. The real reason they went spec at Eight Avenue is much more terrifying. Not sure if the real reason's ever been spilled on the web. If not, I'm not sure I want to be the one to spill the beans, but let me assure you that it wasn't because of guts that they went ahead.

It was built to house the Temple of Gozer?

[LeftCoaster]

It was also not a success, SITQ took a beating on that tower. A lot of people lost their jobs over that debacle, certainly not something we want to emulate here in Vancouver.

And Queetz, Oxford is building their project on spec so we certainly have developers who are willing to take a gamble on this market.

I see the rent curve stabilizing or dropping in about 3 years, bringing the city's competitiveness back into line. It's important to note that this is not a Vancouver problem, all cities experience a rent run up prior to office space buildout, the time lag between demand and supply is just too long in the industry to have efficient rents over time. It can be frustrating to all involved but it is the nature of real estate.

[LeftCoaster]

Originally Posted by Metro-One

Hmmmmmm, does this tie into the rumors thread????

It just may...

For the record there are more than a few office towers in the works which have not yet hit the public radar. Most are doubtful for this cycle but may be brought to the city soon to be ready for the next round.

Also Oxford is quite serious about their Melville property, and will be positioning it to be ready for the next cycle. I would imagine they pushed MNP Tower sooner as Melville is currently generating a return with in place tenants whereas I doubt The University Building was doing anything positive to their bottom line.

[queetz@home]

Originally Posted by LeftCoaster

It was also not a success, SITQ took a beating on that tower. A lot of people lost their jobs over that debacle, certainly not something we want to emulate here in Vancouver.

And Queetz, Oxford is building their project on spec so we certainly have developers who are willing to take a gamble on this market.

You've seen my posts in 1021 Hastings and know I have been cheering for Oxford. Even suggesting that Credit Suisse do the same for their yet to be built office tower. Be nice if Oxford owns and is building the other office tower projects. And who was the developer of PWC Place again? That was also built "with or without an anchor tenant", and yet they were handsomely rewarded for that...

Originally Posted by s211

It wasn't guts that made them build on spec. The real reason they went spec at Eight Avenue is much more terrifying. Not sure if the real reason's ever been spilled on the web. If not, I'm not sure I want to be the one to spill the beans, but let me assure you that it wasn't because of guts that they went ahead.

I've actually been following that particular project since 2000, and if you see an entry in Emporis about that building (or Penny Lane), it was entered by *me*....man that was such a long time ago. So I do vaguely recall something about some deadline imposed by the City of Calgary to get it built or else they have to start all over on the app.

But nevertheless, the business publications always taunt that particular project as going back to the reckelessness of the 80s, how foolish they are for building it anyway despite the impending doom of the Calgary office market at that time. They always picked on Eight Avenue Place, their favourite whipping boy, and yes, there is still some guts involved because the devs could have simply abandoned the whole process as having an empty 50 storey office building would have killed them financially. But they built it anyway, and now its full, the devs laughing themselves at the bank and for sure are taunting those know it all real estate analysts how deeply wrong they are

[trofirhen]

In the various lists of towers sure to come onstream; the MNP Building, The Bentall 6 on Thurlow, and of course the Telus.

But what about the Crédit-Suisse-financed tower? I thought that was a 100% for sure. Are there still ences to climb before that oen gets the green light, are the developers holding off, or what?

[Metro-One]

Originally Posted by LeftCoaster

It just may...

For the record there are more than a few office towers in the works which have not yet hit the public radar. Most are doubtful for this cycle but may be brought to the city soon to be ready for the next round.

Also Oxford is quite serious about their Melville property, and will be positioning it to be ready for the next cycle. I would imagine they pushed MNP Tower sooner as Melville is currently generating a return with in place tenants whereas I doubt The University Building was doing anything positive to their bottom line.

Hmm, would such a possible tower proposal be more serious than just a place holder or fantasy proposal?

[jlousa]

I'd say the Credit Suisse tower is the least likely to go ahead. That's not to say it won't, but it's certainly less likely then the others, the Burrard Gateway office tower and the Howe/Nelson tower are both much more likely to proceed, not to mention the Rogers Arena west tower.
There is so much office space being built/proposed across the region that we will see some easing of rates especially outside the core, which should make it more desirable for start ups.

[Canadian Mind]

I had almost completely forgotten about the old 600 footer rumour for Melville. How long ago was that? 2007/2008? Here's hoping that with the new rules they can go even higher.

[logan5]

I'm surprised and somewhat disappointed to see that nothing is being proposed for Cambie and Broadway. I would imagine that in that area it would be cheaper to develop an office tower. 1 or 2 significant towers of say 20 to 25 stories would transform the area and give it a totally different vibe.

[jlousa]

It wouldn't be any cheaper, it would probably end up more expensive as land prices on a buildable sftage basis are just as high if not higher then the commercial areas of downtown, you also wouldn't see office towers with that many floors, probably ~15flrs (200ft-225ft) at the most. I would suspect any office space would actually be much shorter but bulkier in that area.

[Canadian Mind]

Why couldn't Broadway be zoned for taller structures in the future? Would make for an amazing canyon.

[Prometheus]

Well, there is the mayor's view to think about.