The Big Atlantic Canada Statistics Thread

[JHikka]

I'm iffy on Shediac being included within the Moncton CMA for the time being based on the commuter patterns which are the requirement of inclusion into CMAs. Shediac (town's) commuter profile still mostly works within Shediac itself, and the Moncton numbers don't seem high enough to warrant inclusion in the Moncton CMA. I think the threshold is 50% of Shediac's commuters have to commute into Moncton (City) for it to be considered as part of the CMA, but i'm unsure if it has to be Moncton (the centre of the main CMA) or if it includes all areas within the CMA (so including Dieppe/Riverview).

https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-r...NAMEE=&VNAMEF=

Shediac (Parish) is nearer to being added to Moncton CMA than Shediac (Town) is.

[Bishop2047]

Same sort of beef people have had with oromocto. If that was included in Fredericton's population it would have been a can years ago. To far and not enough people commuting.

Shediac could become a CA, is there any real benefit to this though. Is it just somthing statscan determines or is it applied for. Just curious. I know each province has different qualifications for the term "city" but isnt CA handed down by statscan?

[DTBourque]

Originally Posted by JHikka

I'm iffy on Shediac being included within the Moncton CMA for the time being based on the commuter patterns which are the requirement of inclusion into CMAs. Shediac (town's) commuter profile still mostly works within Shediac itself, and the Moncton numbers don't seem high enough to warrant inclusion in the Moncton CMA. I think the threshold is 50% of Shediac's commuters have to commute into Moncton (City) for it to be considered as part of the CMA, but i'm unsure if it has to be Moncton (the centre of the main CMA) or if it includes all areas within the CMA (so including Dieppe/Riverview).

https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-r...NAMEE=&VNAMEF=

Shediac (Parish) is nearer to being added to Moncton CMA than Shediac (Town) is.

Ah, interesting.

I copy/pasted the #s from StatsCan into Google Sheets and crunched some numbers.

Riverview to Moncton is at 63%. Dieppe to Moncton is at 55%. Shediac to Moncton, Riverview, and Dieppe is at 40%.

You'd think that at some point, as Shediac grows, that percentage would probably grow, but it was at 48% in 2011.

PS -

Forgot to mention in my previous post that Tracadie might be the most obvious next CA. It's not so much a seed as already at 10 000. It jumped to about 16 000 in 2014 when the amalgamation occured.

Not sure if there are additional criteria or reasons why they'd hold off. Most, but not all, the new CAs in 2016 are just a bit above 10 000.

Wasaga Beach, ON (which I know nothing about) is a notable exception. It has had more than 10 000 since 2001 and is now at more than 20 000.

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by Bishop2047

Shediac could become a CA, is there any real benefit to this though. Is it just somthing statscan determines or is it applied for. Just curious. I know each province has different qualifications for the term "city" but isnt CA handed down by statscan?

Becoming a CA opens a community up to additional statistics reporting and research. Towns that are CAs are included in some data whereas smaller areas are not.

[Taeolas]

I believe CA's also need to have a solid core, so even if the bigger area is over 10k, it needs to have a core of a certain size, which may be why some areas do not become CA's.

Shediac may become a CA in another few cycles which would be a good thing and could boost the town. Eventually I do see it being swallowed into the Moncton CMA (which can happen; CA's can merge into CMA's but CMA's cannot swallow other CMAs).

Oromocto is a bit annoying for Freddy. CFB Gagetown takes up so much of Oromocto that it may never officially become part of the Freddy CMA; but really the Freddy-Oromocto region should be considered in total as far as stats go. (Oh so very tempted to call it the F-O region. ;P ) Especially since there isn't really much outside of that region. We don't really have smaller feeder communities to feed into the city like Moncton and SJ have. (Mactaquac's about it. Maybe Harvey and Nackawic if you squint hard)

[OliverD]

Originally Posted by Taeolas

Oromocto is a bit annoying for Freddy. CFB Gagetown takes up so much of Oromocto that it may never officially become part of the Freddy CMA; but really the Freddy-Oromocto region should be considered in total as far as stats go. (Oh so very tempted to call it the F-O region. ;P ) Especially since there isn't really much outside of that region. We don't really have smaller feeder communities to feed into the city like Moncton and SJ have. (Mactaquac's about it. Maybe Harvey and Nackawic if you squint hard)

You don't count Douglas, Lincoln, Hanwell, New Maryland, Islandview, Kingsclear, Richibucto Road, etc?

[DTBourque]

Originally Posted by Bishop2047

Same sort of beef people have had with oromocto. If that was included in Fredericton's population it would have been a can years ago. To far and not enough people commuting.

Shediac could become a CA, is there any real benefit to this though. Is it just somthing statscan determines or is it applied for. Just curious. I know each province has different qualifications for the term "city" but isnt CA handed down by statscan?

CA and CMA:
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/...mr/def-eng.htm

Interesting re: Oromocto.

I didn't think of it at all - I assumed it was it was part of the Fredericton CA just as Rothesay and Quispam are of SJ CMA and Riverview and Dieppe are of Moncton CMA.

Currently, a bit over 50% of Oromocto commuters work in Oromocto.

It is my understanding that CFB Gagetown and DND are actually the 3rd or 4th largest employer in the Province at around 7500 full-time military and civilian employees. When you count family members of employees, it's actually about 75% of the people in Oromocto, according to DND.

[DTBourque]

Originally Posted by Taeolas

I believe CA's also need to have a solid core, so even if the bigger area is over 10k, it needs to have a core of a certain size, which may be why some areas do not become CA's.

Shediac may become a CA in another few cycles which would be a good thing and could boost the town. Eventually I do see it being swallowed into the Moncton CMA (which can happen; CA's can merge into CMA's but CMA's cannot swallow other CMAs).

Oromocto is a bit annoying for Freddy. CFB Gagetown takes up so much of Oromocto that it may never officially become part of the Freddy CMA; but really the Freddy-Oromocto region should be considered in total as far as stats go. (Oh so very tempted to call it the F-O region. ;P ) Especially since there isn't really much outside of that region. We don't really have smaller feeder communities to feed into the city like Moncton and SJ have. (Mactaquac's about it. Maybe Harvey and Nackawic if you squint hard)

The Fredericton CA actually exceeded 100 000 last census. I'd imagine it will get to CMA status even without Oromocto.

I'm not in a rush, though - My carbon tax rebate was bigger because Freddy isn't a CMA. haha

[Taeolas]

Originally Posted by OliverD

You don't count Douglas, Lincoln, Hanwell, New Maryland, Islandview, Kingsclear, Richibucto Road, etc?

I was assuming those were already in the Freddy CA for the most part.
Looks like everything BUT Oromocto is already part of the Freddy CA. Nackawic is just outside, but Harvey is already in it.

And yes, 10-ish years ago, Freddy was only like 100 people off of CMA status (ok the revised numbers put us at 1700 people off apparently), and we were well into CMA status last Census. By all rights we were a CMA last time, but instead we have to wait. (Which did give us a Carbon Tax rebate this year ).

Swallowing up Oromocto will be a challenge,especially with the base; but I suspect we'll get the town eventually. By the looks of it, if Census Canada wanted to, it looks like the definitions do have a clause to manually combine areas if it makes historical sense to do so, even if the numbers don't quite warrant it. That might be a case to make for Freddy-Oromocto.

[DTBourque]

Originally Posted by Taeolas

I was assuming those were already in the Freddy CA for the most part.
Looks like everything BUT Oromocto is already part of the Freddy CA. Nackawic is just outside, but Harvey is already in it.

And yes, 10-ish years ago, Freddy was only like 100 people off of CMA status (ok the revised numbers put us at 1700 people off apparently), and we were well into CMA status last Census. By all rights we were a CMA last time, but instead we have to wait. (Which did give us a Carbon Tax rebate this year ).

Swallowing up Oromocto will be a challenge,especially with the base; but I suspect we'll get the town eventually. By the looks of it, if Census Canada wanted to, it looks like the definitions do have a clause to manually combine areas if it makes historical sense to do so, even if the numbers don't quite warrant it. That might be a case to make for Freddy-Oromocto.

While not being a StatsCan statistician, I think it makes a certain sense to include Oromocto with Fredericton.

I don't think the commute data tells the whole story about the relationship between Oromocto and Fredericton. At the same time, even if that was true, I don't know to what extent I'd expect a statistician in an office tower in Tunney's Pasture in Ottawa to get that nuance.

[OliverD]

Originally Posted by Taeolas

I was assuming those were already in the Freddy CA for the most part.
Looks like everything BUT Oromocto is already part of the Freddy CA. Nackawic is just outside, but Harvey is already in it.

Sorry, I didn't realize you were specifically talking about the CA.

[Taeolas]

At the moment, Freddy is 1 among thousands of CA's in Canada, so our status probably doesn't hit the radar much with Stats Canada, beyound our position as a provincial capital.

In 2021, we'll become a CMA officially, which puts us in a class of dozens, so we'll warrant more attention. Hopefully that means there will be a few Maritime or NB experts who can point at the population blob just outside the CMA and point out how we are historically linked and should be treated as 1 region.

If not, I'm sure the commuting pattern will eventually yank it into the CMA one way or another.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by Taeolas

If not, I'm sure the commuting pattern will eventually yank it into the CMA one way or another.

Perhaps, but CFB Gagetown is a huge offset to the commuting population to Fredericton proper. I think Oromocto will remain separate from the future CMA until the population grows enough to make up for this. This could be decades away.

Shediac on the other hand doesn't have a huge elephant in the room like CFB Oromocto, although there are federal offices in town (like the Superannuation Branch) which are large employers. I think there is a greater probability of getting the commuting pattern established between Shediac/Moncton than Oromocto/Fredericton.

[PEI highway guy]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Perhaps, but CFB Gagetown is a huge offset to the commuting population to Fredericton proper. I think Oromocto will remain separate from the future CMA until the population grows enough to make up for this. This could be decades away.

Shediac on the other hand doesn't have a huge elephant in the room like CFB Oromocto, although there are federal offices in town (like the Superannuation Branch) which are large employers. I think there is a greater probability of getting the commuting pattern established between Shediac/Moncton than Oromocto/Fredericton.

if you drive on the Shediac four lane between Shediac and Moncton between 7:30 am and 8:00 am and back between 4 and 5 pm you would think Shediac would meet the commuting criteria, however, I guess not everyone lives in the town, many live in Beaubassin(SP?) EST or further away.

[DTBourque]

Originally Posted by PEI highway guy

if you drive on the Shediac four lane between Shediac and Moncton between 7:30 am and 8:00 am and back between 4 and 5 pm you would think Shediac would meet the commuting criteria, however, I guess not everyone lives in the town, many live in Beaubassin(SP?) EST or further away.

I grew up in those parts. There are a lot of people within 45 minutes of Moncton who commute.

(Numbers below are population from the 2016 Census, not commuter numbers.)

Cap-Pele (2425), Beaubassin-East (6376), Grande-Digue (2261), Cocagne (2649), Bouctouche (2361), etc. on top of Shediac (6664) all converge on that bit of highway between Shediac and Moncton, creating a massive amount of traffic. Almost all of these communities grew in the last census.

Edit: Not to mention that probably most of the traffic to/from PEI and in NB all the way up to Bathurst go through there.

[pierremoncton]

Unsure where to post this, but this thread seemed the most appropriate.

The Conservation Council of NB released a study describing the expected impacts of climate change on our health. Of interest here are the tables showing the expected changes on individual cities' weather.

Full report: https://www.conservationcouncil.ca/w...swickers-1.pdf

Radio-Canada article: https://ici.radio-canada.ca/nouvelle...veau-brunswick









Tables taken from the full report linked above.

[MonctonRad]

Thanks for posting.........

[DTBourque]

Made a (very) crude table with 2016 Census data for NB's big three southern cities.

It's interesting how you get a different story depending on the metric you choose. In some cases, the cities look like they're similar in size. In other cases, they don't.

I think the Economic Region metric, which we don't often talk about, helps address two recent discussions here.

Oromocto isn't in the Fredericton CA, but it is included in the Economic Region.

Route 15 between Shediac and Moncton is busy during peak times, because the Moncton-Richibucto Economic Region is the largest in NB and many of the people in the Moncton-Richibucto Economic Region but not the Moncton CMA happen to access Moncton by Route 15.

Here's the Dictionary for the 2016 Census, should you be wondering how any of the terms are defined: https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-r....cfm?topic=az2



Edit: Edmundston-Woodstock and Campbellton-Miramichi are the two other Economic Regions in NB. They sit at 77,578 and 154,351, respectively.

Another edit: Halifax, Avalon Peninsula, and PEI Economic Regions sit at 403,390 (3.3%), 270,348 (3%), and 142,907 (1.9%), population (and growth) respectively. While the NB Region boundaries are bit more nuanced (but probably not too controvertial), those of each of these Regions are exactly what they sound like.

The general trend in Atlantic Canada seems to be that the largest Economic Regions are also growing the fastest as a percentage of population - meaning they are further pulling ahead of the smaller Regions.

[MonctonRad]

I've always been partial to [POPCTR] as the true arbiter of the actual physical size of a city/urban agglomeration. This is simply because it is essentially a measure of the size of the continuous built up urban area of a city. It ignores urban boundaries, including instead adjacent contiguous built up areas, and also takes into consideration the boundary where a city ceases being built up (or urbanized) and instead becomes rural, regardless of political boundaries.

- Some cities have political boundaries that extend literally for dozens of km beyond where the first suburban streets can be found. Halifax Regional Municipality is the poster child for this.
- CA/CMA boundaries often include adjacent municipalities which are completely discontinuous with one another (but "connected" due to commuting patterns).

POPCTR corrects for this, reflecting the true size of the built up urban area instead.

[MonctonianSentinel01]

For those wondering about how a CA or other area, like Shediac for example, can get brought into a CMA like Moncton here is the info.
https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-r...geo009-eng.cfm
Item number 7 and Figure 1.11 is what your looking for.
I did the math and 965 people live in Shediac that work in the Moncton CMA and 785 people living in Moncton work in Shediac, following the formula in Figure 1.11 that would mean that these 2 numbers added together and then divided by the resident employed labour force that lives in Shediac (2385) would give us a percentage of about 73 percent. So there must be something else that is holding Shediac back.
It may be one ore more of the rules listed above.