The Big Atlantic Canada Statistics Thread

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by Taeolas

All told, 6 of NB's 7 cities also grew; Campbellton the forgotten City, is the only one that shrunk (by 83 people), all on the NB side; the Quebec side grew by 25.

If you want to see something jarring i'd recommend checking out Campbellton NB's natural increase/decrease numbers - nearly twice as many deaths as births from July 2018 to July 2019.

[q12]

International immigration really helping to fuel the growth here in the Maritimes:


https://www.cicnews.com/2020/02/cana...9-0213697.html



https://www.cicnews.com/2020/02/atla...s-0213710.html

[q12]

Halifax now has the 4th highest growth rate in Canada for a CMA.


https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dail...01-png-eng.htm

[MonctonRad]

Halifax & Moncton doing OK (both top 10).

It will be nice when Freddy finally has CMA status so we can see how it compares too.........

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

It will be nice when Freddy finally has CMA status so we can see how it compares too.........

1.8% YoY growth 2018-2019. Fredericton would be between Kelowna and Windsor on that graph.

Although smaller, Charlottetown's 2.4% growth would be equal to Halifax's. Charlottetown likely won't be a CMA until 2031 or so. It is, however, another year or two from passing Medicine Hat and Sault Ste. Marie in total population after passing North Bay in 2017/2018.

[q12]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Halifax & Moncton doing OK (both top 10).

It will be nice when Freddy finally has CMA status so we can see how it compares too.........

You could argue Halifax and Moncton are doing better than OK, i'd call it impressive considering the history of this region (including Charlottetown).

Cape Breton though is mind blowing (101,265).

They grew by 1580 people in the last year with a growth rate of around 1.5% which puts it in the middle of the pack with Montreal, Winnipeg, Vancouver and Victoria. Wow!

[Taeolas]

Yeah seeing Cape Breton on the rebound is great. Hopefully they can keep it up. Nova Scotia might be on track to getting a second CMA in the (relatively) near future. (Probably after Charlottetown )

[q12]

Originally Posted by Taeolas

Yeah seeing Cape Breton on the rebound is great. Hopefully they can keep it up. Nova Scotia might be on track to getting a second CMA in the (relatively) near future. (Probably after Charlottetown )

We need more forum members from Cape Breton to represent the "Great Renaissance of Cape Breton 2020".

[q12]

From Statistics Canada Reports Thread (thanks to goodgrowth):

Originally Posted by goodgrowth

Looks like East Hants will be added in 2021.

See Table 12:
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/...019002-eng.htm

So Halifax CMA could come close to 500K in the next few years...

Looks like Halifax's population estimate for 2022 will likely be around 500,000 once East Hants (Elmsdale/Highway 102, Mount Uniacke/Highway 101) is added to Halifax's CMA.

Based on the increasing growth rate for Halifax, around 2022 the populations estimate will be (~475,000 Halifax + ~25,000 East Hants) approximately 500,000.

[MonctonRad]

Also from the Statistics Canada website:

Table 3
Preliminary new census metropolitan areas for the 2021 Census
Table summary
This table displays the results of Preliminary new census metropolitan areas for the 2021 Census. The information is grouped by Preliminary 2021 CMA Name (appearing as row headers), Preliminary 2021 CMA Code (appearing as column headers).


Preliminary 2021 CMA Name

Preliminary 2021 CMA Code



Fredericton, (N.B.)
320

Red Deer, (Alta.)
830

Kamloops, (B.C.)
925

Chilliwack, (B.C.)
930

Nanaimo, (B.C.)
938

So, it's finally official - Atlantic Canada is about to get it's fifth CMA.

Congratulations Fredericton!!!

[q12]

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/...020003-eng.htm

[Fischbob]

Here's the dashboard view for the Saint John CMA:


Source

Some remarks:

- Overall growth of about 5,000 people from 2006 to 2019. I feel this is reasonable considering that we had what was effectively a lost half decade between the 2011 and 2016 Census. The CMA population has since recovered and surpassed its previous maximum from 2011.
- The big saving grace here is international immigration, which has been the only large positive component of population change and really ramped up post-2015. The other story is the near-elimination of negative net interprovincial migration in the past couple years. The bleeding seems to have stopped.
- Of some concern is that negative natural increase is creeping up. Hopefully this can be mitigated somewhat as newcomers put down roots and start or grow their families.

Here's the Fredericton soon-to-be CMA:



Strong growth over the last few Census periods, but even Freddy wasn't completely immune to the net interprovincial migration malaise that also struck SJ (and even Moncton!). The big difference was high net intraprovincial migration to match and sometimes even exceed international immigration during that 2012-2015 period, which helped to maintain net positive population growth overall.

[Fischbob]

Originally Posted by JHikka

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dail...cansim-eng.htm

Subdivision breakdowns (towns, villages, parishes) is at the very bottom under census subdivisions.

I haven't done a deep dive yet on the subdivision numbers but most places are stabilzing. Specific rural places are declining (say, Rogersville) while others have bounced back very slightly (McAdam, as an example).

Very handy to have population estimates at the Census Subdivision level now - must be new this year, as I remember looking for CSD numbers last year and only finding as granular as Census Divisions. Thanks for posting!

[theshark]

Originally Posted by q12

We need more forum members from Cape Breton to represent the "Great Renaissance of Cape Breton 2020".

Somebody call out to Smevo to come back! used to be our eyes in CB but has been inactive for a few year

Was also looking at an article in the Acadie Nouvelle about immigration in NB. Miramichi and Edmundston saw the amounts of immigrants coming to the cities double. Miramichi saw 140 and Edmundston 135 in the last year. No numbers for Bathurst but there is also seems to be more immigrants in the region.

Edmundston saw its population increase of over 500 last census, hopefully other cities from the north will show increase. It would be nice to see city proper;

Campbellton stopping the bleeding
Edmundston go back over 17 000
Bathurst go back above 12 000
Miramichi pop back above 18 000

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by Fischbob

Very handy to have population estimates at the Census Subdivision level now - must be new this year, as I remember looking for CSD numbers last year and only finding as granular as Census Divisions. Thanks for posting!

I think it is new this year. We only had provincial, CMA/CA, economic region, and subdivision (county) yearly estimates before.

Originally Posted by theshark

Campbellton stopping the bleeding

Campbellton CA will be losing Dalhousie (Parish) from its catchment area for 2021, so it'll have another 1,000 lopped off of its currently declining figure.

[MonctonRad]

Population of Atlantic Canadian CMAs/CAs, 2019, (2015), absolute increase, % increase

CMA

1) Halifax NS - 440,348 (408,017) +32,331 +7.9%
2) St. John's NL - 212,433 (209,191) +3,241 +1.5%
3) Moncton NB - 155,825 (146,667) +9,148 +6.2%
4) Saint John NB - 131,025 (128,282) +2,743 +2.1%
5) Fredericton NB - 109,883 (102,896) +6,987 +6.8%

CA

6) Sydney (CBRM) NS - 101,265 (100,697) +568 +0.6%
7) Charlottetown PE - 78,568 (69,480) +9,088 +13.1%
8) Truro NS - 46,852 (46,323) 529 +1.1%
9) New Glasgow NS - 34,824 (35,282) -458 -1.3%
10) Corner Brook NL - 31,793 (32,397) -604 -1.9%
11) Bathurst NB - 31,683 (31,673) 10 +0.03%
12) Miramichi NB - 28,000 (28,004) -4 -0.01%
13) Kentville NS - 27,751 (26,639) +1,112 +4.2%
14) Edmundston NB - 24,052 (23,915) +137 +0.6%
15) Summerside PE - 17,864 (16,909) +955 +5.6%
16) Campbellton NB - 15,992 (16,509) -517 -3.1%
17) Grand Falls/Windsor NL - 14,258 (14,341) -83 -0.6%
18) Gander NL - 13,550 (13,418) +132 +1.0%
19) Bay Roberts NL - 11,187 (11,227) -40 -0.4%

Top Five Absolute Population Growth (2015-19):

1) - Halifax NS +32,331
2) - Moncton NB +9,148
3) - Charlottetown PE +9,088
4) - Fredericton NB +6,987
5) - St. John's NL +3,241

Top Five Percentage Growth rate (2015-19):

1) - Charlottetown PE +13.1%
2) - Halifax NS +7.9%
3) - Fredericton NB +6.8%
4) - Moncton NB + 6.2%
5) - Summerside PE +5.6%

[Fischbob]

Population Change by CSD in New Brunswick (2006-2019)

[MonctonRad]

Great map!

The lower Saint John River valley and southeastern NB are obviously the places to be.........

[DB_in_Cbus]

I wish Bridgewater would get over 10k so it could become a CA. I remember maybe 20 years ago there was a movement to merge with a few surrounding villages (which would bring the population to over 10k, easily) The whole of Lunenburg MD is dependent on Bridgewater as an economic center - it would come in at around 34k people. Nova Scotia towns are just so small in area.

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by Fischbob

Population Change by CSD in New Brunswick (2006-2019)

Thanks for the map.

I know I talk about this a lot but the demographic changes in NB in the past twenty years are really interesting, both in the shift of population to Moncton and Fredericton and in the change of proportional balance from North/South to Central/South. NB is growing pretty steadily these days and it's intensifying and densifying in the south as the north deteriorates.

The language changes within the demographic changes are interesting, too, but that's another discussion entirely.

It's interesting to me that Moncton's growth is taking place over a geographic area roughly the same size as Fredericton's but the latter's feels like a larger area because of the river providing a natural geographic hurdle. Shediac to Riverview is about 30 km and Hanwell or Keswick Ridge to Oromocto is about 30km, and yet to me it feels like Fredericton's growth has been more sprawly.

I think it's interesting that peripheral towns like Woodstock and Sussex are able to survive and grow thanks to their locations near to the Big 3 but similar towns like St. Stephen and Grand Falls lack that advantage and decline as a result.

I dug a bit deeper in the provincial subdivision numbers this weekend and the thing that stuck out the most to me was that Blackville/Doaktown was one of the quickest declining areas in the province after Campbellton and the Northeast. As well, the Grand Lake area around Minto and Chipman is also declining at a quick rate despite being between the two fastest growing areas in the province. Perhaps sprawl hasn't required it to happen yet but we haven't seen any increase along the Route 2 corridor between Fredericton and Moncton whatsoever. Maybe it simply won't happen, but I imagine that as these cities sprawl and grow that they'll naturally want to sprawl and grow towards the other growing urban areas.

It's fairly obvious that places like Cocagne, Bouctouche, and Cap-Pele are benefitting from Moncton's peripheral growth but in the coming years i'm going to be looking at places like Salisbury, Sussex, and Fredericton Junction as places that are reasonably located nearer to the larger cities and within commuting distance, as well as benefitting from corridor growth between the three of them. You can see this happening in Salisbury already.

Sussex, in particular, sticks out to me as a place with a lot of growing potential in the future. As of 2019, if you include all of the surrounding parishes and areas, the Sussex region has a population just north of 15K, but with the town of Sussex only hosting 4.4K of those. I always like to imagine Sussex becoming a sort of Truro-sized area - 12K in the town and 30Kish in the area. I think that sort of size would be ideal to be placed between the three big cities, offering a regional service-based economy that can benefit from all three cities being nearby.