The Big Atlantic Canada Statistics Thread

[Taeolas]

What a coincidence... CBC put an article on Halifax hitting 500k

Not much more to say that we haven't all said before. But yeah Halifax hitting the half million within the next few years is a nobrainer.

[MonctonRad]

Indeed; especially with the Halifax CMA absorbing East Hants.

This likely pushes the current Halifax CMA population to 480,000. The CMA is growing by about 10,000 per year, therefore Halifax will likely hit 500,000 by 2024.

We are likely within 3-4 years of 50% of all Nova Scotians living in the Halifax metropolitan area. This will make Nova Scotia the new Manitoba.......

[bridgeoftea]

Originally Posted by Pugsley

David Foot actually predicted this in his famous book on demographics: "Boom, Bust & Echo". In it, he said the Baby Boomers would start to move away from the cities at retirement and that the ocean or waterfront properties would be more attractive. He predicted a hollowing-out of central North America with population booms happening along the coasts.

So, perhaps we are seeing the early stages of this trend. I live in Saint Andrews and vacant lots here with water views are selling like hotcakes.

My bet is that we will see the cities with ample proximity to waterfront or ocean living being more attractive. Right now, Greater Halifax is seeing the most activity. However, I think rural areas on the South Shore of Nova Scotia, the coastal areas between Saint John and St. Stephen, and the Shediac and PEI coastal areas will be the most popular for baby boomers - as they are close to urban amenities yet offer the "retirement dream" baby boomers are seeking.

As someone who's "baby boomer" grandparents came out to visit this year and saw St. Andrews they were seriously considering buying a place in St. Andrews as a "summer" style home.

Forgive my ignorance when it comes to the areas surrounding Saint John and their zoning. I do agree that the baby boomer idea of having some sort of view or proximity to water would see an increase in areas up and down the coast.

I'm surprised the Red Head / Anthony's Cove area hasn't been built up more. I do know it gets a lot foggier than when there is fog. But you could see more row houses or subdivisions in that area.

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by bridgeoftea

I'm surprised the Red Head / Anthony's Cove area hasn't been built up more. I do know it gets a lot foggier than when there is fog. But you could see more row houses or subdivisions in that area.

Red Head is eroding into the ocean and Irving has most of it bought up.

[KnoxfordGuy]

Old people or "baby boomers" are not the demographic we should be striving for though. They don't work. They have more health problems. They die sooner

[Pugsley]

Originally Posted by KnoxfordGuy

Old people or "baby boomers" are not the demographic we should be striving for though. They don't work. They have more health problems. They die sooner

That's age-ist. Many Baby Boomers from Ontario and abroad are probably looking at annual retirement incomes in the $100K/year range, which is taxable income for the province. Plus they would be spending money and supporting new jobs in construction, healthcare, services, and local small businesses. So I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss 10,000 people moving here earning and spending that kind of money each year. I'm sure the province and local economy could benefit from a $1B taxable income boost, not to mention property taxes and HST.

Certainly more impactful than the lower-paying service jobs the province has tried to attract over the past 30 years.

[NewIreland]

Originally Posted by Pugsley

That's age-ist. Many Baby Boomers from Ontario and abroad are probably looking at annual retirement incomes in the $100K/year range, which is taxable income for the province. Plus they would be spending money and supporting new jobs in construction, healthcare, services, and local small businesses. So I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss 10,000 people moving here earning and spending that kind of money each year. I'm sure the province and local economy could benefit from a $1B taxable income boost, not to mention property taxes and HST.

Certainly more impactful than the lower-paying service jobs the province has tried to attract over the past 30 years.

It would be interesting to see a study on this. A did come across a study not too long ago (couldn't find it) which found that people in the 20-40 range spend way more money than older people. I'm not saying you're wrong or don't have a point, but it's fair to say that in general, retired people tend to be more frugal and a huge influx of 60+ people puts a huge strain on the healthcare system.

[Pugsley]

Originally Posted by NewIreland

It would be interesting to see a study on this. A did come across a study not too long ago (couldn't find it) which found that people in the 20-40 range spend way more money than older people.

There are recent stats from StatsCan showing where they fit in terms of spending. You are correct in terms of spending, but not by much. Their spending has been consistent whereas younger generations have been buying the bigger ticket items - homes, appliances, baby items - typical given their stage in life.

The difference with Baby Boomers is that unlike previous generations, as they retire many are moving into new "dream homes" where they are cashing out of their current asset-heavy homes and using the wealth to build or renovate new places debt-free. Whereas previous generations would have stayed in their home longer well into their retirement.

Here is the comparison on spending:



Of course, they can do this because they have the highest net-worth of any demographic group in Canada, by a large margin. See below:



That being said, I think the biggest strategic opportunity here is that the wealth and spending of baby boomers as the largest percentage of private wealth in Canada will spur economic growth. New construction of their dream retirement home drives employment for younger trades people, which results in more spending power for these tradespeople, which means more retail jobs and potentially more small businesses employing people. The argument of many economists (especially David Foot) is that the potential "burden" on any healthcare system by Baby Boomers exists but the overall economic impact Baby Boomers will continue into retirement - as it has over the past 50 years.

So, if we are seeing Baby Boomers moving back east, they are going to have a major impact on economic growth. Note that these stats are "national" as well. Many of the Ontario Baby-Boomers will be higher on the net-wealth scale given the return on their real estate investments over the years. So I think they are a benefit to the region and not necessarily a "burden". And no, I'm a Gen X'er not a Baby Boomer - so not biased here. LOL

Here are the full stats: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/.../00006-eng.htm

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by Pugsley

That being said, I think the biggest strategic opportunity here is that the wealth and spending of baby boomers as the largest percentage of private wealth in Canada will spur economic growth. New construction of their dream retirement home drives employment for younger trades people, which results in more spending power for these tradespeople, which means more retail jobs and potentially more small businesses employing people. The argument of many economists (especially David Foot) is that the potential "burden" on any healthcare system by Baby Boomers exists but the overall economic impact Baby Boomers will continue into retirement - as it has over the past 50 years.

So, if we are seeing Baby Boomers moving back east, they are going to have a major impact on economic growth.

This still leaves a labour gap in the Maritimes, though. The region desperately needs more people of working age to contribute to the economy - they don't need more people spending money at Costco to drive local business sales. Burden on healthcare system aside, they won't physically be contributing to the economy by way of labour, so their value to the region is likely hemmed in no matter how much disposable income they have.

[Pugsley]

Originally Posted by JHikka

This still leaves a labour gap in the Maritimes, though. The region desperately needs more people of working age to contribute to the economy - they don't need more people spending money at Costco to drive local business sales. Burden on healthcare system aside, they won't physically be contributing to the economy by way of labour, so their value to the region is likely hemmed in no matter how much disposable income they have.

As I said, it is a DRIVER for growth, not the end solution. With Baby Boomers bringing in more money comes more opportunity and demand for the services and needs they want to enjoy. Prosperity and opportunity is what drives people to move here. Baby Boomers are a catalyst to drive population growth and prosperity, not a core solution. Multiple studies show that this group has and will continue to drive economic activity, so having them here in the Maritimes is a good thing. Their impact drives new revenue for government, jobs, and opportunities wherever they go...they have for the past 50 years, and will for the next 20-30.

As for the labour gap, I don't think it is a broad brush stroke here. I think a major part of the problem is that many of the current jobs in demand here in the Maritimes (especially NB) are not of interest to domestic youth, for a variety of reasons. So there needs to be an aggressive push to bring people here from abroad willing to do the jobs others are not, especially in customer service and trade roles offered at places like Irving, on farms, construction, and other heavy industries in the region. If there is money and opportunity here, over time people will move here and fill those gaps.

No dis to Alberta but it is not the most pleasant of places to live compared to here...I mean -50C in Edmonton? But Baby Boomers flocked there in the 70s-80s for the oil and gas opportunity. Following them were the people supporting the economy they kick-started. We have a labour gap, but not enough volume of opportunity or variety to drive the kind of influx as seen in other parts of Canada. My argument is that if you have a catalyst for growth and this kick-starts multiple small businesses will grow and evolve in time, hiring multiple and diverse skills, then you can change that dynamic. It could be transformational and be the foundation for longer term and more diverse economic prosperity in the region.

As for the Costco comment, Baby Boomers are more likely to support local restaurants, boutiques, services, and arts/festivals than hang out at Costco all day. I mean, who can eat that many hot dogs at the cafe? LOL

[bridgeoftea]

Originally Posted by Pugsley

As I said, it is a DRIVER for growth, not the end solution. With Baby Boomers bringing in more money comes more opportunity and demand for the services and needs they want to enjoy. Prosperity and opportunity is what drives people to move here. Baby Boomers are a catalyst to drive population growth and prosperity, not a core solution. Multiple studies show that this group has and will continue to drive economic activity, so having them here in the Maritimes is a good thing. Their impact drives new revenue for government, jobs, and opportunities wherever they go...they have for the past 50 years, and will for the next 20-30.

As for the labour gap, I don't think it is a broad brush stroke here. I think a major part of the problem is that many of the current jobs in demand here in the Maritimes (especially NB) are not of interest to domestic youth, for a variety of reasons. So there needs to be an aggressive push to bring people here from abroad willing to do the jobs others are not, especially in customer service and trade roles offered at places like Irving, on farms, construction, and other heavy industries in the region. If there is money and opportunity here, over time people will move here and fill those gaps.

No dis to Alberta but it is not the most pleasant of places to live compared to here...I mean -50C in Edmonton? But Baby Boomers flocked there in the 70s-80s for the oil and gas opportunity. Following them were the people supporting the economy they kick-started. We have a labour gap, but not enough volume of opportunity or variety to drive the kind of influx as seen in other parts of Canada. My argument is that if you have a catalyst for growth and this kick-starts multiple small businesses will grow and evolve in time, hiring multiple and diverse skills, then you can change that dynamic. It could be transformational and be the foundation for longer term and more diverse economic prosperity in the region.

As for the Costco comment, Baby Boomers are more likely to support local restaurants, boutiques, services, and arts/festivals than hang out at Costco all day. I mean, who can eat that many hot dogs at the cafe? LOL

I agree about the local restaurants point. I can't think of any of my sets of grandparents that would choose a East Side Mario's or Montana's over a Old Triangle or Thandi's etc. More to the point I'd rather support the local restaurants, artists and boutiques than the typical "box stores".

[MonctonRad]

July 2021 Statistics Canada CMA/CA Population Estimates are now available:

1) - Halifax - 460,274
2) - St. John's - 214,674
3) - Moncton - 162,422
4) - Saint John - 132,499
5) - Fredericton - 112,138
6) - Sydney - 98,643
7) - Charlottetown - 83,063
8) - Truro - 47,558
9) - New Glasgow - 35,193
10) - Bathurst - 31,808

[Fischbob]

I'll append absolute population change and percentage growth rates (2020-2021) to your list, grabbed from the interactive dashboard.

1) - Halifax - 460,274 | +9,262 | +2.0%
2) - St. John's - 214,674 | +745 | +0.3%
3) - Moncton - 162,422 | +3,195 | +2.0%
4) - Saint John - 132,499 | +541 | +0.4%
5) - Fredericton - 112,138 | +698 | +0.6%
6) - Sydney - 98,643 | -1653 | -1.7%
7) - Charlottetown - 83,063 | +1421 | +1.7%
8) - Truro - 47,558 | +384 | +0.8%
9) - New Glasgow - 35,193 | +238 | +0.7%
10) - Bathurst - 31,808 | +63 | +0.2

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by Fischbob

I'll append absolute population change and percentage growth rates (2020-2021) to your list, grabbed from the interactive dashboard.

1) - Halifax - 460,274 | +9,262 | +2.0%
2) - St. John's - 214,674 | +745 | +0.3%
3) - Moncton - 162,422 | +3,195 | +2.0%
4) - Saint John - 132,499 | +541 | +0.4%
5) - Fredericton - 112,138 | +698 | +0.6%
6) - Sydney - 98,643 | -1653 | -1.7%
7) - Charlottetown - 83,063 | +1421 | +1.7%
8) - Truro - 47,558 | +384 | +0.8%
9) - New Glasgow - 35,193 | +238 | +0.7%
10) - Bathurst - 31,808 | +63 | +0.2

11) Kentville - 28,788 | +551 | +1.9%
12) Miramichi - 28,014 | +33 | +0.1%
13) Edmundston - 23,804 | -50 | -0.2%
14) Summerside - 18,470 | +370 | +2.0%
15) Campbellton (NB & QC) - 15,803 | -130 | -0.8%

[JHikka]

The interactive dashboard is also available for census divisions:
Change 2020/2021

Westmorland | 168,442 | +3,553 | +2.1%
York | 108,989 | +642 | +0.6%
Gloucester | 78,782 | -54 | -0.1%
Saint John | 78,153 | +166 | +0.2%
Kings | 71,682 | +476 | +0.7%
Northumberland | 45,594 | +225 | 0.5%
Madawaska | 33,064 | -60 | -0.2%
Kent | 32,308 | +579 | +1.8%
Albert | 30,726 | +383 | +1.3%
Restigouche | 30,542 | -234 | -0.8%
Sunbury | 29,126 | +175 | +0.6%
Carleton | 26,944 | +95 | +0.4%
Charlotte | 26,147 | +61 | +0.2%
Victoria | 18,374 | -32 | -0.2%
Queens | 10,352 | +46 | +0.4%

This is the first time Queens has shown growth in 15+ years.
Albert passes Restigouche.
Kent will pass Madawaska in another year or two.
Saint John will pass Gloucester in another 2-4 years.
Southeast NB (Albert, Kent, Westmor.) now accounts for nearly 30% of NB's pop.

[DB_in_Cbus]

It's interesting to see where the growth is happening in NS

Annapolis: 21,989 +286 / 1.3%
Antigonish: 20,333 +162 / 0.8
Cape Breton: 98,635 -1666 / -1.7
Colchester: 52,390 367 / 0.7
Cumberland: 30,364 178 / 0.6
Digby: 17,511 103 / 0.6
Guysborough: 7366 3 / 0.0
Halifax: 460,232 9254 / 2.0
Hants: 44,003 198 / 0.5
Inverness: 17438 101 / 0.6
Kings: 63277 420 / 0.7
Lunenburg: 48,981 489 / 1.0
Pictou: 44,413 241 / 0.5
Queens: 10,425 22 / 0.2
Richmond: 9,100 28 / 0.3
Shelburne: 13,717 -79 / -0.6
Victoria: 7,062 37 / 0.5
Yarmouth: 24,819 22 / 0.1


For all the talk of Nova Scotia rising, it's really just limited to Halifax and surrounding counties (Lunenburg, Hants, Colchester and Kings). Lunenburg County's population has been basically stalled for decades despite proximity to Halifax.

I'm really surprised at Cape Breton. I thought they had turned a corner.

Flipping through the national numbers: Montreal had a rather stunning drop, down almost 50,000 people.


Edit: Towns and Cities are here: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1...pid=1710014201.

[bridgeoftea]

A lot of positives in the numbers. Surprised to see that big of an increase in Charlottetown! I wonder how much close to the 1k increase it will be next year for places like Fredericton and Saint John.
Big boost for Moncton too which was expected but way more than I anticipated. I thought would be closer to 2-2.2k.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

July 2021 Statistics Canada CMA/CA Population Estimates are now available:

1) - Halifax - 460,274
2) - St. John's - 214,674
3) - Moncton - 162,422
4) - Saint John - 132,499
5) - Fredericton - 112,138
6) - Sydney - 98,643
7) - Charlottetown - 83,063
8) - Truro - 47,558
9) - New Glasgow - 35,193
10) - Bathurst - 31,808

Here are a couple of other lists dealing with population changes over the last five years (2017-2021)

Absolute Population Growth 2017-2021

1) Halifax - 38,562
2) Moncton - 11,984
3) Charlottetown - 8,578
4) Fredericton - 6,104
5) Saint John - 3,016
6) St. John's - 2,530
7) Truro - 1,091
8) New Glasgow - 235
9) Bathurst - 158
10) Sydney - (-995)

Percentage Population Growth 2017-2021

1) Charlottetown - 11.5%
2) Halifax - 9.1%
3) Moncton - 8.0%
4) Fredericton - 5.8%
5) Saint John - 2.3%
5) Truro - 2.3%
7) St. John's - 1.2%
8) New Glasgow - 0.7%
9) Bathurst - 0.5%
10) Sydney - (-1.0%)

[darkharbour]

I’ve said this before, but seeing Saint John with thousands in population growth after decades of decline is incredibly good for the city and by extension the province.

[Bishop2047]

It is cool to see places like New Glasgow and Bathurst will growth (small but growth is growth).

Halifax Moncton and Fredericton are all liable to have steady growth at about these rates for some time, but Saint John is a wild card. They are the most likely to have a major project or industry startup leading to exponential growth. They are also the most at risk of dropping off should one of the more established employers disband. Here is hoping for the exponential growth.

St John's on the other hand is just not in the best position to attract out of province, and retain immigrants (though I hope they prove me wrong). I expect steady but below average growth here.

Charlottetown is going to continue to boom for some time, and eventually I see Summerside benefiting much more than it currently does.