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  #1  
Old Posted Mar 31, 2017, 12:16 PM
balletomane balletomane is offline
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Welcome to Winnipeg - Population 5 million

According to the WFP book, City Beautiful - How Architecture Shaped Winnipeg's DNA by Randy Turner, the 1911 City Planning Commission expected Winnipeg's population to reach 4.5 million by 1984. Assuming it actually reached this goal and continued to grow afterward,
What would our cultural scene look like?
What would our economy be like?
How urbanized would surrounding municipalities be?
What would our architecture be like?
How might our demographic/racial make-up be different?
Would currently disadvantaged neighborhoods still be that way?
What effect would a Winnipeg of 5 million have on nearby cities (Brandon, etc.)?
Would the nickname "Chicago of the North" still be relevant today and not just in a historical concept?

Last edited by balletomane; Mar 31, 2017 at 5:20 PM.
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  #2  
Old Posted Mar 31, 2017, 3:27 PM
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reading this makes me feel like i have a school project to complete now.
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  #3  
Old Posted Mar 31, 2017, 3:38 PM
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reading this makes me feel like i have a school project to complete now.
Remember to cite your sources!
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  #4  
Old Posted Mar 31, 2017, 3:39 PM
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if wpg kept growing like that canada would be a far different country
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  #5  
Old Posted Mar 31, 2017, 4:10 PM
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^Indeed. In the early 1900s Canada's population growth rate was between 2 and 3% annually. Now it is less than or around 1%. Over 100 years that kind of difference on 100,000 population is in the scale of 270,000 versus 1,2000,000 people. Between 1901 and 1911, Winnipeg's population skyrocketed by 12% a year. A year. It's why we don't take growth projections based on past performance very seriously. Sure, it can continue for a few years, but it usually doesn't. Every place is like that.

If Calgary had continued with its growth rate between 1901 and 1911, it would have 334,000,000 people give or take many million. Taking what it had done and halfing that growth rate to be...realistic as it appears Randy's numbers indicate he did.

For comparison
Wininpeg 42,000 -> 136,000, doubling about 1.5 times
Calgary 4,000 -> 44,000 doubling about 3.2 times

All Randy needed to do was look at the growth pattern of older Canadian cities to realize basing estimates as he did is not very meaningful.
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  #6  
Old Posted Mar 31, 2017, 5:06 PM
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The early-1910's in Manitoba was certainly a little too optimistic, anticipating a Winnipeg of 4.5 million a few decades down the road, laying down a city plan for a Churchill of 500,000 and hoping that The Pas would be our "third city", connecting the metropolis of the south with the metropolis of the north.

Had Winnipeg continued the tremendous growth of that decade a little longer, its possible that Memorial Blvd. would have been our equivalent to Washington's mall. There was a plan for the Bay building to be about 10 stories, extending all the way from Portage to St. Mary - topped with a massive dome that would've dwarfed the Legislature's. Even the massive Eaton's building was meant to be temporary, eventually to be replaced by a new 10 story structure extending from Portage to St. Mary, with Graham forming a tunnel like York does with the WCC. There was even a competition to design a new city hall, some inspired by Greek architecture like the Parthenon. Even our Legislature was built to have enough MLAs for a province at least 2-3 times Manitoba's current size.

I love "what if" situations like this. Hypothesizing what could've been is so intriguing.
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  #7  
Old Posted Apr 7, 2017, 7:44 PM
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Originally Posted by balletomane View Post
The early-1910's in Manitoba was certainly a little too optimistic, anticipating a Winnipeg of 4.5 million a few decades down the road, laying down a city plan for a Churchill of 500,000 and hoping that The Pas would be our "third city", connecting the metropolis of the south with the metropolis of the north.

Had Winnipeg continued the tremendous growth of that decade a little longer, its possible that Memorial Blvd. would have been our equivalent to Washington's mall. There was a plan for the Bay building to be about 10 stories, extending all the way from Portage to St. Mary - topped with a massive dome that would've dwarfed the Legislature's. Even the massive Eaton's building was meant to be temporary, eventually to be replaced by a new 10 story structure extending from Portage to St. Mary, with Graham forming a tunnel like York does with the WCC. There was even a competition to design a new city hall, some inspired by Greek architecture like the Parthenon. Even our Legislature was built to have enough MLAs for a province at least 2-3 times Manitoba's current size.

I love "what if" situations like this. Hypothesizing what could've been is so intriguing.

The replacement stores for Eaton's and the Portage ave was 12 full floors
Same for the Eaton's catalogue Building.12 floors as photographed in the Winnipeg Tribune.
The Bay building was to be about 11 full floors but up to 14 in certain spots such as a dome on top and would have run all they way to St Mary avenue. It was to be spectacular.
Both plans were ambitious and had they gone through, it might have made quite the difference in Winnipeg retaining its regional and national importance with regards to retail in general.

Last edited by BAKGUY; Nov 28, 2017 at 4:50 PM. Reason: edit
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  #8  
Old Posted Nov 14, 2017, 6:36 AM
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I will expand on my alternate history of Winnipeg and Manitoba, but instead of using the 5 million figure that reflects the optimism of the times I will use what I believe to be more realistic.

Despite the opening of the Panama Canal, Winnipeg suffered only a minor blip in its boom, growing to 300,000 by 1921. The 1920's saw a resurgence in growth, many of the city's older skyscrapers were built during this era, including the four at Portage and Main that rise to about 30 floors each. By 1931, the city had grown to 500,000. The city struggled during the Depression years, but rural flight increased the population still to 600,000 by 1941. The Second World War saw a manufacturing boom occur in the city, with the effects of this boom most visible in and around St. Boniface and Transcona. The post-war baby boom also increased the city's population during the 1950's so that by 1961, the city had grown to 1 million. By the mid-1960's, the area within the city limits had been entirely developed, most of these neighborhoods dated to before the Second World War. Waverley West, Wilkes South and Old Kildonan were the main developments in the city after the war. During the 1960's the migration to the suburbs began, this saw Headingley and both East and West St. Paul to develop, and these suburban municipalities are part of the city's continuous built up area. The Manitoba Capital Region composes of Winnipeg's metropolitan area and is home to 2.5 million people. The population within the city itself is 800,000, up from its low of 750,000 in 2001.

The South Broadway neighborhood functions as the city's business district and is composed of primarily midrise office buildings. A few skyscrapers over 150 metres are located in this neighborhood, the tallest building in the city soars to 60 floors.
The Exchange District is much larger on its west side and relatively intact and a tourist draw. The east Exchange was razed in the 1960's and 1970's as a result of "modernization".
West Broadway and Point Douglas are some of the hottest neighborhoods in the city. Many of the blighted houses were demolished in the 1990's and have been replaced by new low to midrise condo and apartment buildings. These neighborhoods are popular among the "artsy" community.
The area around Central Park is seeing the construction of many new condo and apartment towers (picture Glasshouse and Dcondos).
The North End is the most blighted area in the city and has the highest crime and poverty rates. The area east of main is gentrifying and property values are increasing as young families move in.
Elmwood and Transcona are also quite blighted, however there further distance from the resurgence happening downtown means they will continue to decline for the next few years.
The city's wealthiest neighborhoods are those located along the rivers on the south side of the city.
Imagine Winnipeg being similar to Minneapolis / St. Paul.

Brandon
As Manitoba's population boom continued for a longer period in the early 20th century, it became the hub for a larger area and main city in between Winnipeg and Regina. By WW2, the city had grown to 50,000 and has continued to have healthy growth since, exceeding 100,000 by the 21st century. Imagine Brandon being similar to Fargo.

The Pas
With the construction of the HBR to Churchill, the city population boomed and by WW2 was Manitoba's "third city". The city has been in relative decline for the past few decades, but the population has remained stable at 50,000 thanks to a growing urban Aboriginal population. Unfortunately, the city is plagued by the highest crime rates in the province and has one of the highest poverty rates among all communities in the province. Imagine The Pas being similar to Prince Albert.

Churchill
Churchill was little more than a remote outpost at the mouth of the Churchill River until the 1930's when it's port opened. The city boomed in it'd early years, despite the port being unusable foruch of the year. The city became a strategic location during the Cold War which gave boost to its economy when it would've been in decline. The city has approximately 50,000 residents. Imagine Churchill being similar to Thunder Bay, but half the size.

Portage la Prairie
Portage la Prairie is the hub city in between Winnipeg and Brandon. It has been relatively stagnant since the 1960's, but has grown to 50,000 in the past few years.

Other important cities in Manitoba would be Selkirk (pop. 30,000), Dauphin (pop. 30,000), Emerson (pop. 20,000), Neepawa (pop. 10,000), Carman (pop. 10,000), Morden (pop. 10,000), and Souris (pop. 10,000).

The following communities would have about 5,000 residents:
Beausejour, Gimli, Virden, Swan River, Roblin, Manitou, Killarney, Boissevain, Deloraine, Melita, Carberry, Glafstone and Minnedosa.
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  #9  
Old Posted Nov 15, 2017, 10:42 PM
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^^^ It's nice to dream of what-ifs, but I question how any planner could seriously suggest that Churchill would grow to 50,000, or even the more laughable 500,000 that someone quoted earlier in this thread.

The port is locked in by ice for 8 or 9 months a year. What would such a large population do when the port is inactive? Pogey only goes so far.

Is there an equivalent comparison anywhere on the globe, of a port locked in by ice for 8 or 9 months, where the population is even above 10,000?

The ice-bound port is just one issue... so I won't bring up the problems that building on muskeg, marshy land and permafrost would pose.
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  #10  
Old Posted Nov 28, 2017, 4:43 PM
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Originally Posted by balletomane View Post
The early-1910's in Manitoba was certainly a little too optimistic, anticipating a Winnipeg of 4.5 million a few decades down the road, laying down a city plan for a Churchill of 500,000 and hoping that The Pas would be our "third city", connecting the metropolis of the south with the metropolis of the north.

Had Winnipeg continued the tremendous growth of that decade a little longer, its possible that Memorial Blvd. would have been our equivalent to Washington's mall. There was a plan for the Bay building to be about 10 stories, extending all the way from Portage to St. Mary - topped with a massive dome that would've dwarfed the Legislature's. Even the massive Eaton's building was meant to be temporary, eventually to be replaced by a new 10 story structure extending from Portage to St. Mary, with Graham forming a tunnel like York does with the WCC. There was even a competition to design a new city hall, some inspired by Greek architecture like the Parthenon. Even our Legislature was built to have enough MLAs for a province at least 2-3 times Manitoba's current size.

I love "what if" situations like this. Hypothesizing what could've been is so intriguing.
The replacement stores for Eaton's and the Portage ave was 12 full floors
Same for the Eaton's catalogue Building.12 floors as photographed in the Winnipeg Tribune.
The Bay building was to be about 11- 12 full floors but up to 14 in certain spots such as a dome on top and would have run all they way to St Mary avenue.
Try to imagine how that might have positioned Winnipeg in possibly remaining more of a head office for retail buying and cementing how important for mercantile reasons we would have been?We also would have had enough people living and working in the vicinity to keep the stores going.

Last edited by BAKGUY; Jan 11, 2018 at 5:27 PM. Reason: Edit
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  #11  
Old Posted Jan 10, 2018, 8:39 AM
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Last edited by balletomane; Jan 11, 2018 at 7:11 AM.
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  #12  
Old Posted Jan 10, 2018, 4:45 PM
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  #13  
Old Posted Mar 31, 2017, 5:15 PM
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^ When we think about what might have been, let's not lose sight of the fact that it's a minor miracle that today's Winnipeg exists in its current form. This is literally a city that sprang up out of nowhere on scrub land. I'm sure the earliest Winnipeggers of the 19th century would be utterly blown away if they could see what their humble burg would become barely 150 years later.
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Old Posted Mar 31, 2017, 5:15 PM
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Unbuilt design for the HBC:

http://archiseek.com/2009/1919-hudso...ipeg-manitoba/

William Bruce’s plan for Roblin City (Churchill):

http://www.mhs.mb.ca/docs/mb_history...blincity.shtml

Eaton’s replacement:

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-z4d3Aqy6k_...%2BTribune.bmp
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  #15  
Old Posted Mar 31, 2017, 9:16 PM
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If the panama canal had not been built I wonder what the population of Winnipeg would be currently? Maybe double or triple it's current base?
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Old Posted Mar 31, 2017, 9:32 PM
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If the panama canal had not been built I wonder what the population of Winnipeg would be currently? Maybe double or triple it's current base?
I'm sure the city would at least be double its current size, speculating the Panama Canal never opening.
Winnipeg is the only major Canadian city that never came to reach its full potential, with Toronto and Montreal being the hubs in the east and Vancouver and Winnipeg being the hubs in the west. Looking at Canada's largest cities a century ago one would assume the "Big Five" today would be Toronto, Montreal, Vancouver, Winnipeg and Ottawa. Of course looking at that same list Montreal would still be the largest today.
I wonder, if Winnipeg was double its current size would it be more of an aerospace hub than it already is?
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Old Posted Mar 31, 2017, 10:58 PM
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Winnipeg is the only major Canadian city that never came to reach its full potential,
I'm sorry but I don't understand you here. What do you mean Winnipeg never reached its full potential? How do you define potential and qualify standards saying you've met it?

If I'm correct then you're saying that because the Panama Canal was built, Winnipeg never got as big as it could have been in a specific era. This completely ignores a few things.

For one thing, people look at early Winnipeg and say "Wow! Look at our growth in that time period. Had we continued along that trend, we'd be a city of millions by now." Yet that's patently ridiculous. Winnipeg went from what we'd call a town to a city in a short period of time. In raw numbers, that kind of growth is matched today. As a percentage, of course it's going to be smaller. If you go from $1 to $2 then you've witnessed %100 growth. That's the same for everything. To go from $2 to $3 you've seen %50 growth. It's the law of diminishing returns applied to population growth.

Secondly, it's not like Alberta would have simply missed out on the oil boom. Rail is only important for freight today. While having yards in the city certainly helps out the economy, there are no rail towns cum urban conglomerates extant today. Air travel and freight have taken a big chunk out of rail's importance, so it's important to factor that in as well.

Nobody ever thought Winnipeg was going to be the only city between Toronto and Vancouver. While people thought it could have been bigger, the most hardcore boosterism came from people looking to sell cheap plots of land. Eventually something would have taken a chunk out of Winnipeg's regional importance. Maybe the canal, air travel, or simply the growth of cities to the west. As it happens, it turns out it was all three. Some day, Winnipeg's geographic location may indeed prove fortuitous again. Suggesting that Winnipeg didn't reach its full potential is to say that the city has died and did so about a month after the canal opened.
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  #18  
Old Posted Mar 31, 2017, 11:40 PM
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All I really meant is that we are not as big as city planners in the early-1900's would've expected us to be, and as a result, our position economically is less than what it could've been.
Winnipeg has by no means died, and I hope the future is brighter for our city. It has so much potential to really be known internationally (to the point where we aren't really excited that we were featured in Vogue or National Geographic article). With good planning, our downtown could be an example for other cities in the future, there are so many surface parking lots to build on to get things right this time around!

Last edited by balletomane; Apr 1, 2017 at 12:31 AM.
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  #19  
Old Posted Apr 1, 2017, 1:37 AM
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Winnipeg is the only major Canadian city that never came to reach its full potential
Ha, Regina is home to Canada's third largest legislative building. Now ask yourself why that might be.
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  #20  
Old Posted Apr 1, 2017, 1:43 AM
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Ha, Regina is home to Canada's third largest legislative building. Now ask yourself why that might be.
I was just thinking about metros with over 750,000 residents (ones currently over 1 million and those that will likely reach that mark in the next 2-3 decades).
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