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  #8381  
Old Posted May 19, 2019, 8:47 PM
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hollywoodcory hollywoodcory is offline
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On the 789 OGG flights, they still haven't opened J class for bookings yet. Just Y and W currently.

Also looking at the schedule, it sits on the ground at OGG for a while:

WS1858 YYC 11:00 - 13:27 OGG
WS1857 OGG 22:30 - 07:27+1 YYC

That is 9 hours. Curious if they're planning on adding maybe YYZ-OGG to compliment this schedule?
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  #8382  
Old Posted May 19, 2019, 11:09 PM
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Originally Posted by hollywoodcory View Post
Looks like WS is extending PDX to year round.

Also it appears like they’re adding 789 service to OGG 2x weekly.

HNL got swapped to a 7M8, 3x weekly.
That explains the reduction in frequency. Those are some big birds.
Looks like capacity pretty much the same overall to Hawaii... maybe about 300 seats per week less.
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  #8383  
Old Posted May 20, 2019, 1:44 PM
thenoflyzone thenoflyzone is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hollywoodcory View Post
That is 9 hours. Curious if they're planning on adding maybe YYZ-OGG to compliment this schedule?
OGG has a short runway, and therefore OGG-YYZ isn't doable. YVR/YEG-OGG are more likely.

Either way, not the best use for their flagship B789 with lie flat J seats. Seems to me WS doesn't know what to do with some of their B789s in winter. Announce YYC-ICN already and get on it......

Last edited by thenoflyzone; May 20, 2019 at 2:02 PM. Reason: spelling
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  #8384  
Old Posted May 20, 2019, 1:56 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thenoflyzone View Post
OGG has a short runway, and therefore OGG-YYZ isn't doable. YVR/YEG-OGG are more likely.

Either way, not the best use for their flagship B789 with life flat J seats. Seems to me WS doesn't know what to do with some of their B789s in winter. Announce YYC-ICN already and get on it......
I don’t think WS will jump into Asia for a few years. ICN could happen once they have an expanded codeshare with KE.

Also according to airlineroute. YYC-OGG increases to 5x weekly on the 787 in March.
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  #8385  
Old Posted May 20, 2019, 5:46 PM
casper casper is offline
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Originally Posted by hollywoodcory View Post
I don’t think WS will jump into Asia for a few years. ICN could happen once they have an expanded codeshare with KE.

Also according to airlineroute. YYC-OGG increases to 5x weekly on the 787 in March.
Perhaps they need a few wide-body aircraft in a domestic/NA configuration. I don't know maybe something like a 767-300.
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  #8386  
Old Posted May 20, 2019, 6:42 PM
MalcolmTucker MalcolmTucker is offline
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Originally Posted by thenoflyzone View Post
OGG has a short runway, and therefore OGG-YYZ isn't doable. YVR/YEG-OGG are more likely.

Either way, not the best use for their flagship B789 with lie flat J seats. Seems to me WS doesn't know what to do with some of their B789s in winter. Announce YYC-ICN already and get on it......
Isn't it? UA flies OGG-ORD, only 360 nm longer.

That being said, OGG-YYC-YYZ is only 150 nm longer than direct.

UA flies 777-200s to OGG from Denver and Chicago.

Also: Hawaii is expensive. Filling those planes wouldn't be the easiest. Best to ease in with connections.
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  #8387  
Old Posted May 20, 2019, 7:33 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hollywoodcory View Post
I don’t think WS will jump into Asia for a few years. ICN could happen once they have an expanded codeshare with KE.

Also according to airlineroute. YYC-OGG increases to 5x weekly on the 787 in March.
Daxing (PKX) route rights should be handed out sometime in 2020 as Daxing starts operations September 30, 2019.

I expect WS to apply for PKX to YVR/YYZ/YYC If they get 2 daily services then YVR 5x/wk and YYC 2x/wk and YYZ would be daily

I expect AC to get additional route rights to PEK so that both YVR and YYZ are double daily.

Another indicator that WS is is seriously looking at Asia is the business class cabin service standard calls for a lengthened 5 hour dinner service. 5 hours to complete the meal service before lights out in the entire cabin is common on TransPac. TransAt service standard is more around the 2 hour mark.
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  #8388  
Old Posted May 20, 2019, 8:01 PM
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Originally Posted by thenoflyzone View Post
OGG has a short runway, and therefore OGG-YYZ isn't doable. YVR/YEG-OGG are more likely.

Either way, not the best use for their flagship B789 with lie flat J seats. Seems to me WS doesn't know what to do with some of their B789s in winter. Announce YYC-ICN already and get on it......
WS badly needs to get into SkyTeam alliance and get a few frequencies handed to them. YYC-AMS on WS handed over from KL. AF 2nd frequency on YYZ-CDG over to WS.

To get into SkyTeam, WS will have to give up their long standing complaint against traditional prorates.

For the non network planning geeks, prorates are used to price out combined itineraries on a single ticket and price. So YVR-YYC on WS combined with the YYC-AMS on KL. Traditionally some form of distance has been used to calculate the revenue split. This heavily punishes the smaller sector. The idea is that equal partners will lose in their shorthaul network equal proportion.

WS enterred into agreements with either a fixed price or floor price scheme. The was because with no international transoceanic network, WS was always on the losing end of the prorates calculation. This is why some traditional European and Asian airlines went back to AC after trying things out with WS.
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  #8389  
Old Posted May 21, 2019, 12:06 PM
thenoflyzone thenoflyzone is offline
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Originally Posted by MalcolmTucker View Post
Isn't it? UA flies OGG-ORD, only 360 nm longer.

That being said, OGG-YYC-YYZ is only 150 nm longer than direct.

UA flies 777-200s to OGG from Denver and Chicago.

Also: Hawaii is expensive. Filling those planes wouldn't be the easiest. Best to ease in with connections.

As you said, UA utilizes B777-200 (non-ER) aircraft for both OGG-DEN/ORD.

Since the planes are much lighter than an -ER frame, they have much better takeoff performance, which comes in handy at airports with only a 6,995ft runway.

takeoff run for a MTOW B789 at sea level, 15C - 9,300ft
takeoff run for a MTOW B772 (non-ER) at sea level, 15C - 8,000ft

OGG-DEN is often a B752 as well, which has even better takeoff performance.

All of this being said, AA utilizes a B772ER on OGG-DFW, so they must have decent weigth restrictions on the eastbound leg.

Bottom line, I highly doubt you'll see a WS B789 on OGG-YYZ.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cage View Post
WS badly needs to get into SkyTeam alliance and get a few frequencies handed to them. YYC-AMS on WS handed over from KL. AF 2nd frequency on YYZ-CDG over to WS.
Agreed. However, I doubt KL will be giving WS anything, certainly not slots at AMS just because WS joined SkyTeam and/or has a codeshare agreement with KL.
AMS is maxed out on slots. KL will try and keep everything it has at its home base. If WS/AF-KL sign a joint venture, then maybe.

Last edited by thenoflyzone; May 21, 2019 at 12:31 PM.
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  #8390  
Old Posted May 21, 2019, 12:35 PM
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hollywoodcory hollywoodcory is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cage View Post
Daxing (PKX) route rights should be handed out sometime in 2020 as Daxing starts operations September 30, 2019.

I expect WS to apply for PKX to YVR/YYZ/YYC If they get 2 daily services then YVR 5x/wk and YYC 2x/wk and YYZ would be daily

I expect AC to get additional route rights to PEK so that both YVR and YYZ are double daily.

Another indicator that WS is is seriously looking at Asia is the business class cabin service standard calls for a lengthened 5 hour dinner service. 5 hours to complete the meal service before lights out in the entire cabin is common on TransPac. TransAt service standard is more around the 2 hour mark.
WS is definitely interested in Asia. I just think it will be a few more years before they dip their toes there. Maybe once they all have 10 frames? I suspect the next 3 frames will be going to YYZ to launch additional services to Europe. But anything is possible.

As for China, would WS be able to compete there? It's already a bloodbath with the volume of Chinese carriers at YVR. Mabye NRT or even ICN would be better suited. I think I recall them mentioning the possibility of discussing a JV with KE after it wrapped up talks with KL/AF.
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  #8391  
Old Posted May 21, 2019, 3:47 PM
YYCFlier YYCFlier is offline
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Originally Posted by hollywoodcory View Post
WS is definitely interested in Asia. I just think it will be a few more years before they dip their toes there. Maybe once they all have 10 frames? I suspect the next 3 frames will be going to YYZ to launch additional services to Europe. But anything is possible.
Given YYZ-LGW, I think this is likely and they might be really boring and simply launch CDG and DUB from YYZ, but they know the numbers for Europe in summer in YYZ - lots of options.

Asia will be the last 4 frames. ICN seems most likely with KE, and possibly TPE with Air China. Likely Daxing in China once it opens, and maybe Haneda (they opened slots recently). Those seem the safest choices... WestJet has no brand visibility in Asia and Asia is cutthroat (most carriers can launch TATL in summer and make money) so unless they want to launch safe O&D from YVR those seem most likely. JV easier to maintain year-round as well since you get the connecting traffic.

I could also see CDG remaining year round from YYC (2-3x a week) if they can get the connecting passengers from AF. However, KLM runs AMS year-round and converting to 789 service so doubt they want to dilute AMS.
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  #8392  
Old Posted May 21, 2019, 4:56 PM
TheGreatestX TheGreatestX is offline
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Originally Posted by YYCFlier View Post
and possibly TPE with Air China.
China Airlines
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  #8393  
Old Posted May 21, 2019, 5:19 PM
MalcolmTucker MalcolmTucker is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thenoflyzone View Post
As you said, UA utilizes B777-200 (non-ER) aircraft for both OGG-DEN/ORD.

Since the planes are much lighter than an -ER frame, they have much better takeoff performance, which comes in handy at airports with only a 6,995ft runway.

takeoff run for a MTOW B789 at sea level, 15C - 9,300ft
takeoff run for a MTOW B772 (non-ER) at sea level, 15C - 8,000ft

OGG-DEN is often a B752 as well, which has even better takeoff performance.

All of this being said, AA utilizes a B772ER on OGG-DFW, so they must have decent weigth restrictions on the eastbound leg.

Bottom line, I highly doubt you'll see a WS B789 on OGG-YYZ.
Probably cargo in and not much on the outbound legs. Likely can't count on a similar load coming from Toronto so that makes sense.
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  #8394  
Old Posted Yesterday, 8:11 AM
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Speaking of KLM they are adjusting the winter schedule back to 6 weekly for 5 weeks mid January to end of February. Last winter they tried daily for the entire winter. Not a big change really.
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  #8395  
Old Posted Yesterday, 12:11 PM
msmariner msmariner is offline
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Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie View Post
Speaking of KLM they are adjusting the winter schedule back to 6 weekly for 5 weeks mid January to end of February. Last winter they tried daily for the entire winter. Not a big change really.
Is NRT to Tokyo and BA to LHR cut again this winter?
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  #8396  
Old Posted Yesterday, 12:33 PM
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hollywoodcory hollywoodcory is offline
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Originally Posted by msmariner View Post
Is NRT to Tokyo and BA to LHR cut again this winter?
Yes. Long haul this coming winter is virtually the same as last, except for a increase on WS LGW. (Increasing from 3 to 4x weekly.)

BA LHR and AC NRT both end late October and resume end of March 2020.
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  #8397  
Old Posted Yesterday, 12:56 PM
YYCFlier YYCFlier is offline
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Originally Posted by msmariner View Post
Is NRT to Tokyo and BA to LHR cut again this winter?
I think it is safe to assume these routes are permanently seasonal.
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  #8398  
Old Posted Yesterday, 8:07 PM
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Johnny Aussie Johnny Aussie is offline
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Originally Posted by YYCFlier View Post
I think it is safe to assume these routes are permanently seasonal.
Until market conditions change.

If memory serves me correctly YYC is one of only two long-haul seasonal routes on BA.

Winter longhaul appears to be solid with:
AC daily LHR and FRA
KL 6-7 weekly AMS
WS 4 weekly LGW

The mystery remains with HU. Rumour it’s to be cut this year but?

They’ve just announced two route cuts in SYD. One with a 4 month lead in and one with only about 6 weeks. Chinese carriers tend to a lot of last minute cuts... and adds too for that matter.

Last edited by Johnny Aussie; Yesterday at 8:23 PM.
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