Quote:
Originally Posted by Nowhereman1280
Real estate seems to run on a cycle of ~10 years... We are nearing the bottom of the trough, so in a year or two we will begin to see another torrent of new proposals and the likes, but until then it will be rough. Luckily we already have lots of new buildings under construction to watch!
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There are a lot of real estate cycles, and they don't necessarily run in sync with each other.
Residential boom/bust cycles seem to run in something around a 10-year cycle, trough-to-peak and vice-versa. This cycle will be a little different, because of the height of the peak, so I'd expect a deeper trough, and possibly a more drawn-out trough. I also don't think we're in the nadir of things yet - we're definitely headed into the trough, but I don't think we'll bottom out for another 12, maybe even 18 months. Others are more optimistic - I am not, because the fundamentals simply don't support optimism.
Commercial cycles are more linked to the overall economy, but they seem to run in cycles that are slightly longer than residential ones, maybe 12-15 year cycles.
Prior to the boom from about 2000-2007 (it ended last year, we just haven't finished building out what got started), the last boom ended in the early 1990s with the recession brought on by Gulf War I and compounded by the Russian debt crisis.
As the dust settles on this boom - and it will - I wouldn't expect to see Big Projects really get traction again for 4-8 years while we work our way through the nadir of the cycle.
In the case of Chicago, there are a few potential counterpoints worth mentioning, however:
1) The city center is reaching a critical mass of attraction on the residential front, possibly giving it the potential to continue to build out even as the overall regional market remains soft. Balancing against this is that if the City can't attract businesses to the Loop and Michigan Avenue employment districts, one big facet of the downtown attraction will diminish as area jobs dry up.
2) If Chicago were to win the Olympics, there would be additional investment downtown, and there would be a lot of free advertising involved, bolstering interest specifically in downtown for people new to the region. That additional draw could help keep downtown's market more stable than other parts of the area. This is balanced against the fact that it's still a BIG "if," and also against the fact that we have historic records worth of unsold inventory downtown still.
3) Since both of these sites are part of a long-term planned development, they could be (will be?) planned and ready to go as soon as the market is ready to absorb them. That would mean even if they didn't get started in this boom, they could be among the first new towers to be launched as the cycle begins to gear up again.
That's my 2 cents on boom cycles in Chicago real estate ... I'm not an expert, just an observant, self-educated on the subject resident with a vested interest in downtown residential real estate. :-)