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  #121  
Old Posted Nov 21, 2018, 2:40 AM
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Originally Posted by CityTech View Post
If you read the QS platform online, the page on sovereignty is linked to near the bottom of the page (three other things come first). The page itself (https://appuyez.quebecsolidaire.net/independance) talks about independence as a way to promote environmentalism and ditch the monarchy; the traditional nationalist viewpoints involving a sense of distinct peoplehood and the preservation of the French language are completely absent.

It really gives off the sense that independence isn't really their main thing and it's part of an overall leftwing agenda rather than actual nationalism. Sort of like what the SNP in Scotland is like these days.
I feel that QS included it in their platform because it is the "cool" and rebellious thing to have to be a left-wing party. But they aren't putting it front and centre because that would make them look too much like the PQ. Even in a period where support for sovereignty is low, it makes them look like agents for change. Many, if not most lefty artistic-type people in Quebec support sovereignty and still openly do in 2018. You'd probably find the same type of people in Scotland as well.

If the economy in Quebec goes into recession or if the federal government does something really stupid constitutionally or passing extreme laws, then support for sovereignty in Quebec could rise quickly. Hopefully those things don't happen.
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  #122  
Old Posted Nov 21, 2018, 3:20 AM
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It's strange because I don't even think we disagree on this fundamentally. We both agree sovereignty has diminished in importance. We're just disagreeing on how to frame that because we differ on where it's going to go in the future. I don't foresee anything which will lead to a resurgence, so I can only see it continuing to decrease in relevancy. I say we come back in twenty years and see who is right, cause I think that's the only way this will be resolved.

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Originally Posted by lio45 View Post
That's pretty huge, actually, when you think about it. 20% of the very youngest cohort out there (kids, essentially; actual teenagers in some cases) is openly sovereigntist. And you can be sure there are some more that are on the fence, and could change their mind if any issue with the Feds turns into something major.

If you learned that, say, 20% of the youngest Californians, and an even larger share of adult Californians, support secession from the United States, you'd say 'meh, pipe dream, going nowhere, can be ignored'? I'd be like OMG, that's MAJOR!
You'd say "OMG, that's MAJOR!" since such an example lacks all the contextual factors necessary to talk about Quebec. Twenty percent is a sizeable amount, but remember: it still represents a major drop from previous levels of support for sovereignty and is definitely a drop from support shown in older groups (I don't have direct stats in front of me). The trends show support has been falling; find me an example that says otherwise.

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Originally Posted by lio45 View Post
I don't know what kind of standard you're using but even though it's somewhat weaker than it's been, that's definitely a very active and potentially successful sovereignty movement. Beyond those who answer these polls with a resounding 'yes', there are tons of people who don't (and therefore won't show up in your numbers) yet would change their mind if the current setup started to be problematic.
Applying this logic, there are tons of people who voted for Quebec solidaire because they support socialist principles rather than sovereignty, who would not have otherwise if sovereignty was the top issue of the election.

The sovereignty movement can be both active and diminishing/dying/verb which signifies some type of decrease. The facts demonstrate that it is dropping in terms of support to the point where it wasn't an active debate during the provincial election for the first time in fifty years. It's a shadow of what it used to be. The speculation of "will it happen or not" is no longer there, which is my entire original point. Sorry if you disagree with my usage of the term dying but it does not refute my point.

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Out of curiosity - do you also think sovereignty is completely dead and buried for Scotland?
I don't really think sovereignty is dead and buried in Quebec. It's more in the hospital at this point. Nevertheless, Scotland is a good example of a scenario where Quebec sovereignty could become a relevant cause again (independence still polls at 40+ per cent regularly there, so I think it's a much more relevant issue there than Quebec's is here). However, I have faith that Canada isn't going to make a Brexit-level mistake in their future. We do substantially better at addressing Quebec's needs and I think it is unlikely tempers are going to flair up again the way they did in the 90s.

I fully admit my analysis is based upon that assumption, but I think it's a fair one to have. Yes, Speculative Event #3 could happen and sovereignty could come roaring back, but Speculative Event #1 could also happen and suddenly Alberta is gone.

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And I'm sorry to be this blunt but you have no clue if you genuinely think the PLQ and CAQ are both the same type of federalist party. I honestly mean you're at a level of cluelessness that is actually likely to mean these discussions are a total waste of time.
Ah, so you agree that they are both federalist parties in the end.

I don't recall saying they were the same type of federalist party, because of course they aren't. Their similarities end at their desire to keep Quebec in Canada. Like, I don't expect to see the CAQ attempting to get the province to sign the Constitution anytime soon or anything. Nevertheless, they both have expressed opposition to sovereignty, so they're still both federalist parties at their core.
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  #123  
Old Posted Nov 21, 2018, 3:27 AM
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Originally Posted by lio45 View Post
Support for independence peaked at 50%. The PQ won their first FPTP majority with ~40%. Then 'yes' in 1980 got ~40%. They won again in 1981 with slightly more support, but still in the ~40%-45% range.
It peaked at 56% of the vote in NS in 1867 (that was the percent of the popular vote for the unambiguously-named "Anti-Confederation Party"). Then as we all know NS separated from Canada and the rest is history... no turning back once the people have spoken (unless you get 50% + 1 in the other direction I guess).

Likewise the leave vote for Brexit was 51.89%. It was in 2016.

One thing I don't know is how separatist policies and the sales pitch have been updated since the Parizeau days. I have complained before that I have a low opinion of him because he basically said it would be OK to do things like nuke pensions of seniors in Quebec as long as it helped to eventually bring forth his grand vision of what sounded like a 19th century style nation state.

I was watching the movie 1991 the other day and the guy talks about how he was happy that he had to go to the Canadian embassy instead of what would have inevitably been a crappier or nonexistent Quebec embassy in Rome when he lost his passport. I feel like that kind of stuff is what the practical outcome of separation would look like. A warm fuzzy feeling inside and slightly less functional federal-level services.
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  #124  
Old Posted Nov 21, 2018, 2:09 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lio45 View Post

Support for independence peaked at 50%. The PQ won their first FPTP majority with ~40%. Then 'yes' in 1980 got ~40%. They won again in 1981 with slightly more support, but still in the ~40%-45% range.

Then it's been hovering in the ~35%-40% range. And it kind of still is in that ballpark.
.
In terms actual votes (we've only had two), the highlighted is correct.

But in polls it actually peaked at around 72% at one point in 1990 or 1991 in the aftermath of the Meech Lake fiasco.
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  #125  
Old Posted Nov 21, 2018, 11:55 PM
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Quebec`s future is secure in Canada and it will NEVER separate.


I was around during the first and second referendum. Of course they were filled with hardcore sparatists who grew up in the 1930 to 1960s when Francophones in Quebec really were treated like dirt and young indealists. Now the old guard is dying off and the young idealists have become middle aged pragmatists. They are tired of the linguistic and culture divides of oid Quebec and watching their friends all leave the province for greener pastures. Quebecers, like all Canadians, are also far more accepting of racial minorities than they were back in the 60s/70s/80s and don't like the old guard mentality of a racially pure Quebec


People today when studying the issue, especially current soverentists, often don`t acknowledge or even realize that there was a very deep rooted racism in the movement and the belief of `pure laine`. For separatists an independent Quebec was to be Francophone and decidedly white. There was a lot of, often very open, hostility towards Native and racial minorities and some hardcore anti-Semitism which younger Quebecers would be horrified over today.


Saying one is a soverentist is like saying someone a envrionmentalist............saying it is one thing, voting for it is another.

Last edited by ssiguy; Nov 23, 2018 at 7:16 AM.
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  #126  
Old Posted Nov 22, 2018, 11:14 PM
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From the 1970s until about 10-15 years ago, almost all francophone youth in Quebec were pro-sovereignty. But today you will find many Quebec youth who don't want sovereignty.

I believe the change has been due to the Internet but especially social media. It gives the youth a different perspective and they communicate much more with people outside Quebec. They also see other Canadians and not just certain politicians or celebrities and they hear diverse opinions coming from us. Stereotypes have diminished as well. There's also globalization and more acceptance of differences.
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  #127  
Old Posted Nov 23, 2018, 1:59 PM
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Unlike 50 years ago, francophones in Quebec aren't a marginalized and threatened population anymore.
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  #128  
Old Posted Nov 23, 2018, 2:09 PM
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Unlike 50 years ago, francophones in Quebec aren't a marginalized and threatened population anymore.
Also, *most* anglophones are now usually nicer to francophones than they were in the 70s-80s-90s, and the reverse is also true (francophones towards anglophones).
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  #129  
Old Posted Nov 23, 2018, 2:21 PM
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Originally Posted by Loco101 View Post
From the 1970s until about 10-15 years ago, almost all francophone youth in Quebec were pro-sovereignty. But today you will find many Quebec youth who don't want sovereignty.

I believe the change has been due to the Internet but especially social media. It gives the youth a different perspective and they communicate much more with people outside Quebec. They also see other Canadians and not just certain politicians or celebrities and they hear diverse opinions coming from us. Stereotypes have diminished as well. There's also globalization and more acceptance of differences.
There's a number of reasons:

English and French Canada has mingled more as equals since the late 1990s. A similar thing has happened with Newfoundland. During the 1970s through the 1990s, each province had a very negative connotation in the national debates of the time.

Now, that has faded considerably. Newfoundlanders and Quebecois get a much more positive reception when they travel within Canada. From my limited travels in Quebec, Anglo-Canadians seem to get a more positive reception there too.

The 'old guard' Quebecois who were second-class citizens in their own province in a previous era are fading away. The economic growth in Quebec and Newfoundland has helped too - they're not viewed so much as 'takers' now.

Indeed, it is very few Canadians who still think bilingualism at a federal level is a foolish policy. French and French immersion is the (only?) part of the education system in Ontario that is actually attracting a larger share of students than previously.

That being said, there's always friction between the 'poles' of Canadians (see some of the debates on this forum). Foolishness on the part of one party could quickly shift the narrative. I wouldn't get too confident about our position as a country.
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  #130  
Old Posted Nov 23, 2018, 3:05 PM
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That being said, there's always friction between the 'poles' of Canadians (see some of the debates on this forum). Foolishness on the part of one party could quickly shift the narrative. I wouldn't get too confident about our position as a country.
Not to mention the worldwide trend that seems to be that formerly conflicting groups wthin countries that seemed to have worked out a reasonably tranquil coexistence are starting to get into each other's faces again - often in a big way.
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