HomeDiagramsDatabaseMapsForum About
     

Go Back   SkyscraperPage Forum > Regional Sections > Canada > Atlantic Provinces


Reply

 
Thread Tools Display Modes
     
     
  #781  
Old Posted Sep 30, 2011, 3:02 PM
MonctonRad's Avatar
MonctonRad MonctonRad is online now
Wildcats Rule!!
 
Join Date: Jun 2008
Location: Moncton NB
Posts: 34,342
Quote:
Originally Posted by nwalbert View Post
The biggest blow yet however I believe is the fact that the McCains and Irvings have gone public with the fact they have no interest in ownership. In my opinion that basically eliminates any chance of a team in Moncton. All of the other names listed would be risking their entire net worth which is unlikely to happen.
This is indeed a major hurdle, but I detect no rush from corporate barons in NS to support a team down there either. In particular, the Sobeys also are involved in the food business and would have difficulty tieing into sports marketing as well. The Jodreys and Braggs have yet to step up to the plate.

Corporate support is probably the biggest hurdle for both Moncton and Halifax.
__________________
Go 'Cats Go
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #782  
Old Posted Sep 30, 2011, 5:22 PM
q12's Avatar
q12 q12 is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Halifax
Posts: 4,500
Quote:
Originally Posted by MonctonRad View Post


My personal opinion is that Haligonians would never support a single Maritime franchise based in Moncton. Halifax will ultimately eventually get a team.

A team based in Moncton however could be the "team for the rest of us". I too think that a two team solution would work, but this would require some preconditions:

- a commitment by the CFL for substantial expansion of the league (at least 12 teams and possibly 16).
- the Moncton franchise would have to be established first. If Halifax gets a franchise, Moncton never will. If Moncton gets a franchise, Halifax eventually would too.

So, it's important that Moncton keep up the good fight in order to get established first. This particular race is sudden death for Moncton (but not for Halifax).
If you haven't listened to this interview with Mark Cohon back in August here it is (reposted from Halifax Stadium Discussion):
Quote:
Originally Posted by Urban_Genius View Post
Guys this is a pretty interesting discussion with Mark Cohon (Commish of the CFL) on Prime Time Sports late last week. Discussing about potential league expansion. Many cities are brought up including Halifax.

http://pmd.fan590.com/podcasts/pts/P...08-18-4-pm.mp3
I believe he pointed out that London seems to be out of the question for expansion due to proximity to Hamilton.

If Moncton ever got a CFL team (which is highly unlikely) and than Halifax wanted a team, they would probably cry fowl in Moncton since they would argue it would hurt Moncton's attendance.

If the ship building contract (or even a portion of it) is awarded to Halifax than not only is development in Halifax likely to sky rocket, but it would likely increase our population growth rate substantially. Also there would be more willingness from corporations to invest in a Halifax based CFL team with a booming economy. I think this fact alone will be the final nail in the coffin for discussion on Moncton's CFL aspirations.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #783  
Old Posted Sep 30, 2011, 5:38 PM
MonctonRad's Avatar
MonctonRad MonctonRad is online now
Wildcats Rule!!
 
Join Date: Jun 2008
Location: Moncton NB
Posts: 34,342
Quote:
Originally Posted by q12 View Post
If Moncton ever got a CFL team (which is highly unlikely) and than Halifax wanted a team, they would probably cry fowl in Moncton since they would argue it would hurt Moncton's attendance.
As I alluded to in my previous post, I wouldn't necessarily expect huge throngs of Haligonians coming to Moncton for CFL games (maybe a thousand or so per game). As icetea stated, the primary catchment area would be within a 90 minute drive, perhaps extending a little further into PEI and up to Fredericton. There really isn't too much overlap in the natural catchments of Halifax and Moncton.

Quote:
Originally Posted by q12 View Post
If the ship building contract (or even a portion of it) is awarded to Halifax than not only is development in Halifax likely to sky rocket, but it would likely increase our population growth rate substantially. Also there would be more willingness from corporations to invest in a Halifax based CFL team with a booming economy. I think this fact alone will be the final nail in the coffin for discussion on Moncton's CFL aspirations.
Do we know how many jobs would be created in Halifax through the shipbuilding contract? It seems to me the contract is to be extended out over 30 years or so. Probably the net annual employment gain wouldn't be too much different than it was in Saint John with the original frigate program. It certainly helped SJ's economy, but it wasn't a game changer. Also, wouldn't parts of the contract be distributed to subcontractors elsewhere in the region. This would only seem fair. Some steel fabrication could be done in Trenton or here in Moncton at Apex for example......
__________________
Go 'Cats Go
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #784  
Old Posted Sep 30, 2011, 6:34 PM
someone123's Avatar
someone123 someone123 is offline
hähnchenbrüstfiletstüc
 
Join Date: Nov 2001
Location: Vancouver
Posts: 33,673
Statements like "more accessible to a larger number of people" are not well-defined. They conflate multiple factors that can be measured in different ways.

One estimate I have heard is that Regina sells 85% of tickets to locals. If this is true, it implies that others in Saskatchewan purchase at most 15% of the tickets (others elsewhere, e.g. visitors for opposing teams, would also buy some). But let's say:

200,000 Regina residents (200,000 * R) account for 85% of ticket sales (T).
800,000 Saskatchewan residents (800,000 * S) account for 15% of ticket sales (T).

200000 * R = 0.85 * T
800000 * S = 0.15 * T

So...

200000R/0.85 = 800000S/0.15

To get per capita sales in Regina in terms of per capita regional sales, correct for smaller population and ratio of ticket sales:

R = (800000/200000) * 0.85/0.15 * S
= 68/3 * S
~ 22.7 * S

Per capita, 22.7 times more tickets were sold to locals in the Regina market. Moncton has a larger regional market of more like 1,700,000 (Maritimes minus Moncton), but the regional market would only be equivalent to having 75,000 more locals based on the Regina ticket sale ratio.

I'm sure the actual situation is more complicated than this but I am also pretty convinced that most people are overestimating the long-term importance of the regional market when it comes to ticket sales. And when it comes to merchandise, it's not clear that location matters as much (for example people in the Maritimes will buy NHL stuff).
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #785  
Old Posted Sep 30, 2011, 8:25 PM
Wishblade's Avatar
Wishblade Wishblade is offline
You talkin' to me?
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Calgary, AB
Posts: 1,322
Quote:
Originally Posted by MonctonRad View Post
Do we know how many jobs would be created in Halifax through the shipbuilding contract? It seems to me the contract is to be extended out over 30 years or so. Probably the net annual employment gain wouldn't be too much different than it was in Saint John with the original frigate program. It certainly helped SJ's economy, but it wasn't a game changer. Also, wouldn't parts of the contract be distributed to subcontractors elsewhere in the region. This would only seem fair. Some steel fabrication could be done in Trenton or here in Moncton at Apex for example......
I have read that if the large contract is awarded there would be 11,500 jobs created in the Halifax area as a result. If you add in the workers families the shipbuilding contract would probably give a population boost of about 30-50,000 over the 30 years. This is just directly pertaining to the shipbuilding contract and doesn't include any spinoff effects that may occur as a result from increased market confidence.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #786  
Old Posted Sep 30, 2011, 10:27 PM
nwalbert nwalbert is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2008
Posts: 651
Quote:
Originally Posted by MonctonRad View Post
It certainly helped SJ's economy, but it wasn't a game changer. Also, wouldn't parts of the contract be distributed to subcontractors elsewhere in the region. This would only seem fair. Some steel fabrication could be done in Trenton or here in Moncton at Apex for example......


This is actually incorrect, the drydock in SJ closing was absolutely a game changer and set the city back 15-20 years. The city has just recently recovered.

The Naval contract which will most certainly go to Halifax is also a game changer and the city will boom. On the other hand, the great migration from the North of NB to Moncton is coming to an end and the population increase will slow dramatically in the coming years.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #787  
Old Posted Oct 1, 2011, 1:06 AM
MonctonRad's Avatar
MonctonRad MonctonRad is online now
Wildcats Rule!!
 
Join Date: Jun 2008
Location: Moncton NB
Posts: 34,342
Quote:
Originally Posted by nwalbert View Post
This is actually incorrect, the drydock in SJ closing was absolutely a game changer and set the city back 15-20 years. The city has just recently recovered.
I didn't mean to minimize the effect of the end of the frigate program to Saint John. If you think that was my intent, I certainly apologize. How many people were employed at the Irving Shipyard at the height of the contract?

11,000 new jobs is certainly huge, but they wouldn't all be new arrivals to the city. I could see a population boost to HRM in the vicinity of 20,000, but for a regional population of 400,000 this would not be a game changer. It's sad that the shipyard even left Saint John. A major industry like this would mean so much more to SJ than Halifax.

Quote:
Originally Posted by nwalbert View Post
On the other hand, the great migration from the North of NB to Moncton is coming to an end and the population increase will slow dramatically in the coming years.
There is a misconception out there that all of Moncton's recent growth is due to depopulation of the north. This isn't true. We had a discussion on this in the Moncton thread several months ago, and while I forget the precise figures, the percentage of population growth in the Moncton CMA attributable to economic refugees from the north is only in the vicinity of 30%.

I agree that depopulation of the north can't go on forever. In the future, it will be economic expansion and employment growth that will continue to propel Moncton, not northern economic refugees. I am quite confident that Moncton will continue on it's upward trajectory.
__________________
Go 'Cats Go
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #788  
Old Posted Oct 3, 2011, 12:14 PM
nwalbert nwalbert is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2008
Posts: 651
Quote:
Originally Posted by MonctonRad View Post

11,000 new jobs is certainly huge, but they wouldn't all be new arrivals to the city. I could see a population boost to HRM in the vicinity of 20,000, but for a regional population of 400,000 this would not be a game changer. It's sad that the shipyard even left Saint John. A major industry like this would mean so much more to SJ than Halifax.


There is a misconception out there that all of Moncton's recent growth is due to depopulation of the north. This isn't true. We had a discussion on this in the Moncton thread several months ago, and while I forget the precise figures, the percentage of population growth in the Moncton CMA attributable to economic refugees from the north is only in the vicinity of 30%.
The drydock in SJ employed ~500 people. The Naval contract in Halifax will employ 23X more people at 11,500. The impact will be monumental.

Hopefully Moncton can continue to grow as the migration from the North slows but they certainly have challenges in front of them as the Province buckles down on spending.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #789  
Old Posted Oct 3, 2011, 12:56 PM
MonctonRad's Avatar
MonctonRad MonctonRad is online now
Wildcats Rule!!
 
Join Date: Jun 2008
Location: Moncton NB
Posts: 34,342


Only 500? I was a little suspicious of the 11,500 job count for the Halifax Shipyard proposal before. I'm even more suspicious now. That seems like an awfully inflated figure! Why should the Halifax project require so many more workers?

The Saint John Shipyard built one frigate right after another. The new shipbuilding program will be spread out over 30 years, presumably launching one new ship per year. Even if they are building two (or even three) ships concurrently, why would it take 23x the number of workers?

I'm not saying that the 11,500 figure is wrong, but maybe this includes contractors and sub-contractors as well as suppliers and other ancillary workers. If so, all 11,500 jobs might not be in Halifax. I'm sure some subcontracts will be let to other companies elsewhere in the region and suppliers won't necessarily be located in Halifax.

It would be good to know......
__________________
Go 'Cats Go
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #790  
Old Posted Oct 3, 2011, 8:24 PM
someone123's Avatar
someone123 someone123 is offline
hähnchenbrüstfiletstüc
 
Join Date: Nov 2001
Location: Vancouver
Posts: 33,673
Funny how Haligonians supposedly have a bad attitude but when the prospect of something good for Halifax comes up where there isn't even competition within the Maritimes we still hear about how it would have been so much better in SJ, it won't be that big of a deal anyway, etc.

In any case, I believe the potential impact of the shipbuilding contract is being exaggerated but will it still be good if it happens. Much of the big contract money will be spent on subcontracted technology but there's already a cluster of companies in Halifax providing those services that could continue to grow. The contract is not going to create an overnight boom town but could be the difference between middling and good economic growth for a couple of decades.

It is a little sad but I also think that something like the shipbuilding contract would help to change the outlook of some people in Halifax and make them more receptive to the idea of growth. Things are improving but historically there has been a ton of negativity even when the city's economy has done well (e.g. fastest growing in Canada for 2008 or 2009). The more good news there is the less people will be in "complain" mode and the more they'll start to think about long-term projects like rapid transit or a stadium. Halifax really is growing substantially (1.5% in the last year -- http://www40.statcan.ca/l01/cst01/LFSS03A-eng.htm) and it will pay the price if it plans and builds as if it isn't.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #791  
Old Posted Oct 3, 2011, 10:48 PM
MonctonRad's Avatar
MonctonRad MonctonRad is online now
Wildcats Rule!!
 
Join Date: Jun 2008
Location: Moncton NB
Posts: 34,342
Quote:
Originally Posted by someone123 View Post
Funny how Haligonians supposedly have a bad attitude but when the prospect of something good for Halifax comes up where there isn't even competition within the Maritimes we still hear about how it would have been so much better in SJ, it won't be that big of a deal anyway, etc.
My comments are not anti-Halifax at all.

What I said is born of the fact that the Irving Shipyard was originally located in Saint John, and I don't think anyone would argue the fact that comparatively speaking, the new naval shipbuilding contract would have had a much larger impact in Saint John than in Halifax. It would have been a gamechanger to SJ, while in Halifax it will just add to the overall prosperity of the municipality.

The important thing is for the contract to be issued to the east coast period. If Halifax is the principal beneficiary then I am pleased. I hope that subcontracting work will be distributed throughout the region. This would help forge business relationships within the region that would transcend the actual shipbuilding contract itself.

I still find it hard to believe there would be 11,500 new jobs in Halifax.
__________________
Go 'Cats Go
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #792  
Old Posted Oct 3, 2011, 10:58 PM
q12's Avatar
q12 q12 is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Halifax
Posts: 4,500
Quote:
Originally Posted by someone123 View Post
Funny how Haligonians supposedly have a bad attitude but when the prospect of something good for Halifax comes up where there isn't even competition within the Maritimes we still hear about how it would have been so much better in SJ, it won't be that big of a deal anyway, etc.
If Moncton could have found a way to start a new shipyard on the Petitcodiac River they probably would have. And then the first thing they would claim is it would have a larger catchment area.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #793  
Old Posted Oct 3, 2011, 11:57 PM
someone123's Avatar
someone123 someone123 is offline
hähnchenbrüstfiletstüc
 
Join Date: Nov 2001
Location: Vancouver
Posts: 33,673
Quote:
Originally Posted by MonctonRad View Post
What I said is born of the fact that the Irving Shipyard was originally located in Saint John, and I don't think anyone would argue the fact that comparatively speaking, the new naval shipbuilding contract would have had a much larger impact in Saint John than in Halifax. It would have been a gamechanger to SJ, while in Halifax it will just add to the overall prosperity of the municipality.
But what is the point of saying this?

There are towns smaller still that could be given a shipyard. Conversely, Halifax needs more economic activity than Saint John to keep it going. In NS there's a tendency to see anything that goes to Halifax as "playing favourites" without realizing that the city is basically half the province. The "one for you, one for you, and one for you" game is actually unfair to the bigger towns and, in the case of the Maritimes, has created a bunch of small cities that are not competitive with the bigger cities farther West. NB is so small that when it spreads out its investment the results don't even register with the rest of the country.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #794  
Old Posted Oct 4, 2011, 12:15 AM
MonctonRad's Avatar
MonctonRad MonctonRad is online now
Wildcats Rule!!
 
Join Date: Jun 2008
Location: Moncton NB
Posts: 34,342
Quote:
Originally Posted by q12 View Post
If Moncton could have found a way to start a new shipyard on the Petitcodiac River they probably would have. And then the first thing they would claim is it would have a larger catchment area.
Actually, the foundation of Moncton was the Joseph Salter shipyard. Without the shipyard, Moncton would not have incorporated in the first place.
__________________
Go 'Cats Go
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #795  
Old Posted Oct 4, 2011, 12:20 AM
MonctonRad's Avatar
MonctonRad MonctonRad is online now
Wildcats Rule!!
 
Join Date: Jun 2008
Location: Moncton NB
Posts: 34,342
Quote:
Originally Posted by someone123 View Post
But what is the point of saying this?

There are towns smaller still that could be given a shipyard. Conversely, Halifax needs more economic activity than Saint John to keep it going. In NS there's a tendency to see anything that goes to Halifax as "playing favourites" without realizing that the city is basically half the province. The "one for you, one for you, and one for you" game is actually unfair to the bigger towns and, in the case of the Maritimes, has created a bunch of small cities that are not competitive with the bigger cities farther West. NB is so small that when it spreads out its investment the results don't even register with the rest of the country.
Essentially you are saying that all other cities in the region should give up any of their aspirations and allow all future growth to be centred in Halifax.

I don't consider this very fair, especially in a region composed of more than one province. The agrandisement of Halifax does not contribute at all to the tax base of NB or PEI. How would you have the other Maritime provinces support themselves?
__________________
Go 'Cats Go
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #796  
Old Posted Oct 4, 2011, 10:53 AM
Wishblade's Avatar
Wishblade Wishblade is offline
You talkin' to me?
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Calgary, AB
Posts: 1,322
Quote:
Originally Posted by MonctonRad View Post
Essentially you are saying that all other cities in the region should give up any of their aspirations and allow all future growth to be centred in Halifax.

I don't consider this very fair, especially in a region composed of more than one province. The agrandisement of Halifax does not contribute at all to the tax base of NB or PEI. How would you have the other Maritime provinces support themselves?
This is exactly why we should all join into one province. We would have a much larger voice in Ottawa, and it would probably bolster the economy of the region.

Also, New Brunswick could have focused its resources on building one large centre for the province like Nova Scotia, but instead has 3 smaller centres all fighting for a piece of the pie. Because of this Halifax has become more of a centre for the region than just Nova Scotia, and you really cant blame us for that

Last edited by Wishblade; Oct 4, 2011 at 11:04 AM.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #797  
Old Posted Oct 4, 2011, 11:28 AM
MonctonRad's Avatar
MonctonRad MonctonRad is online now
Wildcats Rule!!
 
Join Date: Jun 2008
Location: Moncton NB
Posts: 34,342
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wishblade View Post
This is exactly why we should all join into one province. We would have a much larger voice in Ottawa, and it would probably bolster the economy of the region.
Maritime union is not a bad idea - just so long as Halifax is not the capital. That would be way too much wealth and power concentrated in one area!

Charlottetown gets my vote for the capital.....
__________________
Go 'Cats Go
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #798  
Old Posted Oct 4, 2011, 8:36 PM
roccerfeller's Avatar
roccerfeller roccerfeller is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jul 2010
Location: BC
Posts: 2,918
Quote:
Originally Posted by q12 View Post
If you haven't listened to this interview with Mark Cohon back in August here it is (reposted from Halifax Stadium Discussion):


I believe he pointed out that London seems to be out of the question for expansion due to proximity to Hamilton.

If Moncton ever got a CFL team (which is highly unlikely) and than Halifax wanted a team, they would probably cry fowl in Moncton since they would argue it would hurt Moncton's attendance.

If the ship building contract (or even a portion of it) is awarded to Halifax than not only is development in Halifax likely to sky rocket, but it would likely increase our population growth rate substantially. Also there would be more willingness from corporations to invest in a Halifax based CFL team with a booming economy. I think this fact alone will be the final nail in the coffin for discussion on Moncton's CFL aspirations.

Interesting interview with Cohon

Bob McCown is a doofus though, never been a fan of him and his "Toronto is the center of the universe!!!" attitude; he sounded surprised when the Comish mentioned Southern Ontario needing to better support its existing teams and changed topics..lol...heck, TSN has done more for the league than Sportsnet ever could. Maybe Argo's going to Sportsnet would be a good idea since they do a good job for the Toronto area, but outside that, TSN > Sportsnet and time of the day. Besides, I doubt TSN would give up what is now their biggest TV draw.

I agree with Quebec City, but again, they need a stadium. Great potential, but stadium!

He has good things to say about Moncton, but is also realistic about the scenario. He raved on and on about the fans; clearly he was impressed *note this interview was before TD Atlantic #2*

Also, he has good things to say about Halifax but is also cautious in general: he is keeping a close eye on the stadium developments but also notes "It needs to be up to CFL Standards"

Again, a stadium in Halifax isn't a guarantee for a team and that point of his highlights it.

IMO, he seems high on both Moncton and Halifax. That said, he has concerns for both. He does imply behind a "10th" team that Atlantic Canada would likely just have one team...so I wouldn't bother starting to argue about Halifax AND Moncton having a team, when both still have a ways to go to even place a bid for a franchise.

The formula for either Moncton or Halifax to get the CFL's attention seriously, is the same process Ottawa went through and the same process QC is going through currently for the NHL:

3 things are needed

1) A building, that meets the requirements

2) An owner, willing to support the team (though it could be community owned like the Riders; it works in Saskatchewan so why wouldn't it work in the Maritimes?)

3) A market; both in terms of fan base and corporate support




The CFL is a gate driven league, much like the NHL is, but corporate support is still important. Cohon was cautious about Moncton, yet did defend it at the same time. For Halifax, he was more concerned about the stadium; although he noted Moncton has a stadium, he said it is no where near what is required.

And its not just seats that are important.

For Halifax, they need to build one first, and get it to "CFL standards" as he noted.



So one thing I will point out to the Pro-Halifax crowd, is that you guys need to make sure the stadium your city council approves isn't a bare bones 20 000 seater with minimum concessions, press boxes, and private suits. If you've been waiting since 1983, why not go all out and build the best you can? I know a lot of people in the Halifax Stadium forum have brought that up. I bet you all agree with that notion. Fingers crossed that your city council doesn't cop out.

For the Pro-Moncton crowd, a similar story: Having an expanded stadium with permanent seats is good, but it needs to support all the concessions that are required of a modern facility. The CFL won't put a franchise in Moncton unless it has the maximum possibility to succeed, and that includes the business side of things which are directly tied to the stadium.


I wish the best for both cities, but it all starts with the stadium. Or, at the very least, ownership interest; Ottawa doesn't have the stadium yet but they are investing in one as part of a Half-a-Billion dollar investment.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #799  
Old Posted Oct 15, 2011, 3:25 AM
Jstaleness's Avatar
Jstaleness Jstaleness is offline
Jelly Bean Sandwich
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Dartmouth
Posts: 1,672
...and with a kick for the win! Argo's win over Calgary in final minutes!!
__________________
I can't hear you with my eyes closed
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #800  
Old Posted Oct 22, 2011, 12:01 AM
Jstaleness's Avatar
Jstaleness Jstaleness is offline
Jelly Bean Sandwich
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Dartmouth
Posts: 1,672
Tough night for the Argo's. Hopefully the second half is more profitable.
__________________
I can't hear you with my eyes closed
Reply With Quote
     
     
This discussion thread continues

Use the page links to the lower-right to go to the next page for additional posts
 
 
Reply

Go Back   SkyscraperPage Forum > Regional Sections > Canada > Atlantic Provinces
Forum Jump


Thread Tools
Display Modes

Forum Jump


All times are GMT. The time now is 4:42 AM.

     
SkyscraperPage.com - Archive - Privacy Statement - Top

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.7
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.