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  #921  
Old Posted Mar 1, 2013, 9:20 PM
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Makes sense..
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  #922  
Old Posted Mar 1, 2013, 9:23 PM
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Originally Posted by Peter_johnns View Post
It is absolutely ridiculous for anyone to think NB can support a team. Putting a team in a city with 60 plus thousand people is a not simply wishful thinking, but entirely stupid. Halifax will get the team if anyone does. Personally I do not know many people who care about football enough to drive to m'ton or Halifax. But numbers are the only thing that counts people: Hali: 400,000 plus Nova Scotia has over 900,000.... M'ton 60,000 and NB's 750,000.

Get over it, it isn't a big deal but you aren't getting a team.
I agree.

I see a different list of priorities for Moncton, such tax reform, subsidies for downtown infill, transit expansion, a downtown events centre, and at least a temporary end to the unabated development of business parks that are bleeding the Moncton area's potential for density.

With the rest of the province doing so poorly, it'll be difficult for the province to subsidise Moncton's debt (with federal equalisation transfers) because the dying parts of the province still need public services and infrastructure maintenance.
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  #923  
Old Posted Mar 1, 2013, 9:34 PM
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Originally Posted by q12 View Post
The point of this story is that an analyst from Quebec of all places is saying that Halifax is the safest bet for someone to invest their money on a CFL team. Mark Cohon will lead Moncton on so they'll keep coming to his touchdown atlantic games. This CBC story is not really news as anyone can figure out that the safer bet is Halifax. This kind of story just upsets Moncton Cheeleaders who think their bankrupt government is going to build them a new hockey arena and a new upgraded football stadium.
While I agree this is a blow to the ego of the Moncton Boosterites, I also see the Government of Nova Scotia as dealing with copious amounts of debt, as Nova Scotia shares many of the same issues as New Brunswick: aging demographics, too rural, urban sprawl, lack of industry diversification and strength, etc...

Yes, obviously, Halifax is the safest choice for a CFL team, but I hope Halifax addresses some other issues first, such as transit and curbing sprawl.
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  #924  
Old Posted Mar 1, 2013, 9:38 PM
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It's a little disingenuous to say Moncton is too small by using a number that grossly understates the size of the city, while also using a significantly over-sized number for Halifax.

I'm also skeptical about how well a football team would work out in Moncton. But that has more to do with my perception that football isn't as popular here as it is out west.

That said. You really can't discount people coming from outside of the city to games. If the number of Nova Scotia and PEI license plates at Champlain Place and Trinity Drive are any indications, people are willing to come quite a distance to get something they can't see locally.
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  #925  
Old Posted Mar 1, 2013, 9:46 PM
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I am not sure if you're referring to the 400,000 number for Halifax, but that is not an over-estimation of the city's size. The actual population is something like 414,000. The big size difference is the number one reason why Halifax would be preferred as a CFL host city.
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  #926  
Old Posted Mar 1, 2013, 9:48 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mylesmalley View Post
That said. You really can't discount people coming from outside of the city to games. If the number of Nova Scotia and PEI license plates at Champlain Place and Trinity Drive are any indications, people are willing to come quite a distance to get something they can't see locally.
Amherst can't help you prop up a CFL team alone. This argument only works for one off events. Haligonians are not driving to Champlain place to shop, however a ton of New Brunswickers are in Halifax and Dartmouth shopping all the time.

Here is a comment from CBC story that seems to expose the problem:

Quote:
Im from Saint John and I went to the first one Moncton hosted. I couldn't wait to get home and watch NFL, and thats when it dawned on me that I would likely never go to another game there again. I really don't think Moncton will have the long term support they need from neighboring cities and towns to fill the seats year after year
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-s...uture-155.html
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  #927  
Old Posted Mar 1, 2013, 9:52 PM
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Originally Posted by someone123 View Post
I am not sure if you're referring to the 400,000 number for Halifax, but that is not an over-estimation of the city's size. The actual population is something like 414,000. The big size difference is the number one reason why Halifax would be preferred as a CFL host city.
Source:

July 1st 2012 population estimate Halifax: 413,710


http://www5.statcan.gc.ca/cansim/a03...051-0054&p2=31
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  #928  
Old Posted Mar 1, 2013, 10:08 PM
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Originally Posted by Peter_johnns View Post
I don't see how that makes any real difference to my argument.
It makes a huge difference.

With statistics, it is very important to compare apples to apples rather than apples to oranges. As Myles said, you used numbers that grossly understated Moncton's population to support your point of view. I don't know if you did this intentionally or not, but I am willing to give you the benefit of the doubt.

HRM is essentially equivalent to the Halifax CMA. The population figures are identical. If you want to compare them to Moncton, then you should use the Moncton CMA population for comparison (410k vs 143k).

If you choose to use the Moncton city population for your thesis (70k) then you should compare this to the population of the old city of Halifax (probably about 175k). Apples to apples.

Moncton is Moncton, Dieppe and Riverview. Halifax is Halifax, Dartmouth, Bedford and Sackville. Apples to apples.

Saying that Halifax is 410k and Moncton is 70k is misleading and appears to give Halifax a gross advantage. Apples to oranges.

Saying that Halifax is 400k and Moncton is 143k is fair and accurate. Apples to apples. Then we can start arguing about catchment populations, but that issue has already been beaten to death on this thread in the distant past.
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  #929  
Old Posted Mar 1, 2013, 10:13 PM
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Originally Posted by MonctonRad View Post
Saying that Halifax is 400k and Moncton is 143k is fair and accurate. Apples to apples. Then we can start arguing about catchment populations, but that issue has already been beaten to death on this thread in the distant past.
But it's not fair or accurate since Halifax is 414k. If I said Moncton is 129k you guys would jump all over it.
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  #930  
Old Posted Mar 1, 2013, 10:22 PM
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Statistics Canada?

Oh please. Unless it's in the Times&Transcript, it's a total lie
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  #931  
Old Posted Mar 1, 2013, 10:24 PM
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Originally Posted by q12 View Post
This CBC story is not really news as anyone can figure out that the safer bet is Halifax. This kind of story just upsets Moncton Cheeleaders who think their bankrupt government is going to build them a new hockey arena and a new upgraded football stadium.
I don't mind being called a Moncton cheerleader, as long as you are willing to have yourself labelled as a Halifax cheerleader too.

Also, the NB government is not much more bankrupt than the NS government. If Alward simply rescinded the Graham government tax cuts, he could raise about $300M annually, which would nearly cover our annual deficit and we would still have an HST which is 2% less than in NS. NB has room to maneuvre on taxes, NS does not.....
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  #932  
Old Posted Mar 1, 2013, 10:27 PM
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Originally Posted by q12 View Post
But it's not fair or accurate since Halifax is 414k. If I said Moncton is 129k you guys would jump all over it.
410k vs 414k is simply a rounding error.

129k vs 143k is not.

Edit: I just reread my post and on one line I did list Halifax's population as 400k rather than 410k. That was not my intent. i apologize.
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  #933  
Old Posted Mar 1, 2013, 10:50 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MonctonRad View Post
410k vs 414k is simply a rounding error.

129k vs 143k is not.

Edit: I just reread my post and on one line I did list Halifax's population as 400k rather than 410k. That was not my intent. i apologize.
Apology accepted.

I'm not afraid of saying I'm cheerleading Halifax. (Halifax Mooseheads #1 in the CHL rankings) But I'm also cheerleading Atlantic Canada. I would like to see all of our cities successful.

The CBC article is just trying to bring things back to reality that a CFL team in Moncton is not likely to happen. I also realize N.S. is not rolling in the dough either, however we have some significant offshore prospects that could end up changing things in a few years.
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  #934  
Old Posted Mar 2, 2013, 12:39 AM
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I don't argue with the population of 413,000 for Halifax Regional Municipality. Statistics Canada also says that the Halifax Population Centre is 297,943 as of 2011. Moncton's is 107,086. If we're turning population numbers into a dick measuring contest, we should at least measure from the same place.

Let's all use the same set of numbers. I've argued for ages that Population Centre (Urban area in previous censuses) is the most accurate number to pick when comparing cities. http://www12.statcan.ca/census-recen...25&CMA=0&PR=12
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  #935  
Old Posted Mar 2, 2013, 1:14 AM
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In the case of Halifax that's pretty debatable since the population centre excludes areas like Hammonds Plains and Fall River which have substantial populations and are overwhelmingly subdivisions developed during the past couple of decades.

Most people who argue that the CMA is bloated don't know the city very well or don't understand just how sparsely populated the eastern 2/3 of the metro area is (and even that area is probably dominated by exurban subdivisions, not rural settlements).

In any case it doesn't make much of a difference to look at population centres. The same 3 to 1 ratio holds.
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  #936  
Old Posted Mar 2, 2013, 1:29 AM
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My point was never about Moncton somehow being closer in population to Halifax than it actually is. All I'm arguing is that if you're going to start tossing numbers around, use comparable figures. Citing an (understated) municipality's population and comparing it to a large CMA is misleading and unfair.

As I've said, I'm skeptical of CFL in Moncton. But if people are going to start bickering about data points, they should at least use comparable (and accurate) ones.
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  #937  
Old Posted Mar 2, 2013, 1:49 AM
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Count me as one of those who support Halifax getting a CFL team. It's the smartest and most logical choice. It's the largest urban area in Atlantic Canada, which means it has the largest population to draw from in terms of fan support. I just don't see how anyone can think that Moncton, a small city of 100K, is capable of supporting a professional sports team. It seems illogical to me.

Halifax all the way in my books.
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  #938  
Old Posted Mar 2, 2013, 2:02 AM
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I just don't see how anyone can think that Moncton, a small city of 100K, is capable of supporting a professional sports team. It seems illogical to me.
There you go understating Monctons population again....

The Moncton CMA is 143,000 not 100,000.

The CMA population has grown by more than 20,000 in the last 10 years. Moncton has the fastest growth rate of any CMA east of Saskatchewan. By the 2021 census, we should have a CMA population exceeding 160,000.

That is not much different than Regina's population 20-30 years ago and it seems to me that they had a CFL team back then.....
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  #939  
Old Posted Mar 2, 2013, 2:04 AM
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Originally Posted by MonctonRad View Post
There you go understating Monctons population again....

The Moncton CMA is 143,000 not 100,000.

The CMA population has grown by more than 20,000 in the last 10 years. Moncton has the fastest growth rate of any CMA east of Saskatchewan. By the 2021 census, we should have a CMA population exceeding 160,000.

That is not much different than Regina's population 20-30 years ago and it seems to me that they had a CFL team back then.....
100K, 143K, 160K, those are very small differences in the grand scale of things. Moncton is simply too small of a city/metro area in Canada to support a pro sports team, and in an area like Atlantic Canada where the economy isn't all that great, that hurts you even more.

The edge goes to Halifax, by a very large margin.
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  #940  
Old Posted Mar 2, 2013, 4:10 AM
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The edge goes to Halifax, by a very large margin.
I think most people would agree but we will continue to see debate because there's no clear plan to build a CFL-sized stadium in Halifax.

The new mayor says he's interested in a stadium so we'll see what happens over the next couple of years. One detail that doesn't get covered much is that the HRM has a pretty decent fiscal capacity to build things like $100M stadiums (it's debatable how much money, if any, the city should spend on such a project, but that's another issue). As mentioned in the article there's also more corporate presence in Halifax than in other cities in the region. Assuming the scale of the CFL doesn't change, it will become an easier and easier project.
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