1 in 3 BC Vehicles Could be Electric by 2030

[whatnext]

Something to think about as the idealogues in control of City Hall systematically destroy the efficiencies of our vehicle road network:

Imagine a future in which cars zip silently along city streets, cause no pollution, never need an oil change and cost as little as 60 cents to fill up.

That could be the reality in British Columbia if electric cars take off in popularity the way some people predict.

As many as one million — or one in three — B.C. vehicles could be electric within 20 years, said Katie Laufenberg, an analyst with the Pembina Institute, a sustainable energy think-tank.

“B.C. really is at the forefront of this revolution,” Laufenberg said. “B.C. has the highest gasoline prices and the lowest electricity prices in North America....”

Read more: http://www.vancouversun.com/technolo...#ixzz0zZpZKE8W

[Porfiry]

Originally Posted by whatnext

Something to think about as the idealogues in control of City Hall systematically destroy the efficiencies of our vehicle road network

Vehicles do not have a monopoly on transportation, and what's important is the efficiency of the entire transportation network. In a dense city like Vancouver, investing in space-efficient transportation modes is the only way to improve capacity and reduce congestion.

In other words, it's naive to assume the only impact of a car is from its tailpipe.

[SpongeG]

i think a lot of anti-gas anti-car people currently would switch to the convenience of their own electric car - whatever happens cars will always play a role out there

[mezzanine]

Originally Posted by Porfiry

In other words, it's naive to assume the only impact of a car is from its tailpipe.

Word.

[cabotp]

Which is why fuel taxes are not the best way to charge people for driving. Sure today they are great but once people start switching to electric cars. How are you going to charge them a fuel tax when they are not using any fuel.

Tolls which charge you based on passing a certain point are good. But they only punish the people who drive past that point. Everyone else wouldn't get affected.

There is also the option of GPS tolling or mileage based tolling. Where you are charged based on the distance you travel. That would be the most fair method. The problem is some people have this big brother inferiority complex. They wouldn't want others to know that they did 10,000 km in the last year. GPS would be even better has you could even charge people more for driving in certain parts of the city versus maybe being free or next to nothing for driving on a country road out in the middle of no where.

[zivan56]

Electric cars would be useless for me. I travel really far when I actually do drive...otherwise, I take transit to work (< 15 mins). Likewise, most of my shopping is within walking distance.

[WarrenC12]

A related article:

VANCOUVER (NEWS1130) - Science World will soon be home to B.C.'s first electric-vehicle charging station. It will be one of the fastest ways to power up electric vehicles, only taking about 20 to 30 minutes for most models.

Sean Allan with Powertech Labs says that is way faster than the time it would take to power up in a home garage. "The slow way 110 [volts] would take approximately 10 to 12 hours to re-charge at home."

He says the steel structure slightly resembles a gas pump."It has a little LCD touch-screen interface, which allows you to kind of interact with the machine. Currently this machine is not set up for point-of -sale, but it's something that quite easily could be done. So that you'd interact with it with your credit card or your debit card."

Right now the station is free to the public; it will likely be primarily used by by BC Hydro and the City of Vancouver, which have three electric vehicles in use between them.

Allan says in the future similar power-stations will likely become more common. "Places like gas stations perhaps, public squares. The thing is that you want to have a rapid charging station situation where someone is going to spend about 25 minutes."

He says that in the future at a cost of six cents per kilowatt hour, it will only cost about 60 cents to power-up.

120kms for 60 cents, all it "costs" is a 25 min wait.. sign me up

http://www.news1130.com/news/local/a...-science-world

[DKaz]

I could see me having one electric car for around town trips and one gasoline car for longer trips. The new Nissan Leaf is something worth looking at.

[Pinion]

Unless parking costs downtown go down (they wouldn't, ever) I can't rationalize driving to work. It's a giant waste of money and would rob me of the only decent exercise I get.

But living on a busy street I welcome electric cars. The new buses alone have been a pleasant improvement. Unfortunately the most obnoxious members of our society will always have their stereo/engine as loud as possible.

[aberdeen5698]

Originally Posted by DKaz

I could see me having one electric car for around town trips and one gasoline car for longer trips. The new Nissan Leaf is something worth looking at.

That would make a helluva lot of sense, but it's not going to happen for most people until ICBC comes up with some way to split the insurance costs between the cars. One driver with two cars has virtually no more risk of an accident than one driver with one car - he shouldn't have to pay twice as much insurance for them.

[BurnabyAaron]

Saying 1 in 3 cars could be electric by 2030 is like saying 1 in 4 people in Vancouver could be flames fans by 2020. While this could happen it isn't likely.

Although I am really starting to look at electric cars. I like Nissan leaf and the idea of 1 gas vehicle for long distance. This is really appealing. I can just Imagine my girlfriend using it and leaving unplugged afterwards though.

I wonder if these electric car's batteries are going to be more advanced with the charging. I know my cell phones battery sucks because i rarely let it die all the way before charging it, will this be an issue do you think?

[aberdeen5698]

Originally Posted by BurnabyAaron

I wonder if these electric car's batteries are going to be more advanced with the charging. I know my cell phones battery sucks because i rarely let it die all the way before charging it, will this be an issue do you think?

The Lithium battery packs in electric cars are managed electronically to avoid over- and under-charging so as to maximize battery life. For example the Chevy Volt's battery is never charged to more than 85% of capacity and it's never allowed to drop below 30% of it's capacity. See: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chevy_Volt#Battery

[Alex Mackinnon]

Originally Posted by BurnabyAaron

Saying 1 in 3 cars could be electric by 2030 is like saying 1 in 4 people in Vancouver could be flames fans by 2020. While this could happen it isn't likely.

I would say that's pretty pessimistic. All it takes is a couple price or supply shocks for electrics to go from something bought only by early adopters to mainstream.

[cabotp]

Originally Posted by BurnabyAaron

Saying 1 in 3 cars could be electric by 2030 is like saying 1 in 4 people in Vancouver could be flames fans by 2020. While this could happen it isn't likely.

Although I am really starting to look at electric cars. I like Nissan leaf and the idea of 1 gas vehicle for long distance. This is really appealing. I can just Imagine my girlfriend using it and leaving unplugged afterwards though.

I wonder if these electric car's batteries are going to be more advanced with the charging. I know my cell phones battery sucks because i rarely let it die all the way before charging it, will this be an issue do you think?

The biggest factor in whether 1/3 of cars will be electric by 2030. Is how the fast or high the price of fuel rises.

[madmigs]

Originally Posted by BurnabyAaron

Saying 1 in 3 cars could be electric by 2030 is like saying 1 in 4 people in Vancouver could be flames fans by 2020. While this could happen it isn't likely.

Note: the quote in the article said "vehicles" not "cars". Buses are vehicles, transport trucks are vehicles, and so are cars, motorcycles, and some might even consider trains/LRTs as vehicles.

[madmigs]

Originally Posted by Porfiry

Vehicles do not have a monopoly on transportation, and what's important is the efficiency of the entire transportation network. In a dense city like Vancouver, investing in space-efficient transportation modes is the only way to improve capacity and reduce congestion.

In other words, it's naive to assume the only impact of a car is from its tailpipe.

So true!

Can you imagine the gridlock if everyone that took transit, walked, and/or cycled to work, instead took a car? Not to mention all the extra parking needed at destinations, at home(aka the condo towers), and all the extra pavement for streets needed? Electric or not, that infrastructure alone would cost significant $$$, not to mention all the materials(oil, steel, cement, etc) going into making those roads and extra parking.

[Zassk]

It is worth reading up on the Nissan Leaf. Once you read the details, you realize that this kind of car could really work for a lot of commuters. Charge overnight on 110V, half a night on 240V, or 80% charge in half an hour at a special station like the one mentioned above - at a cost of a few percent of what you currently pay per km.

Me, I don't drive long enough distances to make the up-front cost premium worth it. I just purchased a Nissan Rogue, which is similar size to these new electric cars, maybe a bit larger. I only fill up twice a month (and save about $60/mo compared to my old SUV in doing so). It would take a lot of years of me driving electric to pay off the up-front cost premium of a Nissan Leaf or Chevy Volt compared to my Rogue.

Yes, the energy is only one cost of the private vehicle. There is a great toll paid in the form of land use, disposal, and so on. But if you think about it, personal transportation has been around for more than 1500 years, since the development of horseback riding (a revolution that helped end the Roman Empire). Most of the world is hopelessly addicted to personal transportation, and has been since long before the industrial revolution. If a time comes that we cannot afford to fuel engines anymore, we will simply revert to the animal version again. Eliminating personal transportation isn't going to happen.

[WarrenC12]

Yep.. no sense fighting it, unless you enjoy social engineering.

I can see something with a 150-200km range and a 20 min charge time even being worthwhile as a taxi cab. It only took 2-3 years for virtually the whole fleet to become Prius'

[madmigs]

Originally Posted by Zassk

Yes, the energy is only one cost of the private vehicle. There is a great toll paid in the form of land use, disposal, and so on. But if you think about it, personal transportation has been around for more than 1500 years, since the development of horseback riding (a revolution that helped end the Roman Empire). Most of the world is hopelessly addicted to personal transportation, and has been since long before the industrial revolution. If a time comes that we cannot afford to fuel engines anymore, we will simply revert to the animal version again. Eliminating personal transportation isn't going to happen.

Assuming by personal transportation, you are specifically talking about the car, not a bike or a person's feet. More and more people are getting around more and more without a car or even owning a car, like myself. I do use a mobility scooter, but that is more like a pedestrian/bike, than anything.

Sure for some needs, such as living in a rural or lower density suburbs, owning and having a car is required, as regular long distance trips are required for normal life. Also for tradespeople etc who need to have their tools with them. But for someone who can easily access everything they need within a few blocks of home, and home/work are close to the skytrain, such as people who live, work, and play downtown, owning a car is more of a want than a need. Yes, they will still want/need to go on occasional trips where a car is required, but this is where short-term car rentals or car share programs(which are becoming more popular in dense urban cores), come into play.

Building more rapid transit lines(like Canada Line, Evergreen, UBC, Surrey expansion), lessens a lot of peoples' dependency on cars, some to the extent that they may realize giving up their car isn't so bad and that for some it could be cheaper and more convenient to rent a car for a weekend for a quick trip, now and then, then to pay for maintenance, car payments, and insurance year-round.

I am by no means saying(nor advocating) that we can get rid of cars entirely, but if we are smart we can reduce our reliance on them(in an overall sense).

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by Zassk

...Yes, the energy is only one cost of the private vehicle. There is a great toll paid in the form of land use, disposal, and so on. But if you think about it, personal transportation has been around for more than 1500 years, since the development of horseback riding (a revolution that helped end the Roman Empire). Most of the world is hopelessly addicted to personal transportation, and has been since long before the industrial revolution. If a time comes that we cannot afford to fuel engines anymore, we will simply revert to the animal version again. Eliminating personal transportation isn't going to happen.

Interesting to note that just before the dawn of the automobile age New York was literally choking on horse manure:
http://www.thefreemanonline.org/colu...isis-of-1894/#

Should the 30% electric car figure come true, BC will be in the interesting position of having a crown corp control a huge share of the vehicle refueling market...