Winnipeg CMA in Five Years (2021)

[wave46]

At any rate, I'm pleasantly surprised by Winnipeg's growth and am happy for the city and its residents.

I hope the city continues its steady pace of growth and when people look back at the '80s and '90s, they see the nadir of Winnipeg and how it's come back (kind of like how NYC had its nadir in the 1970s).

[wave46]

Originally Posted by balletomane

I think Stantec conducted some sort of population report for Thompson a few years back, and I think their higher estimates were around the 17,000 mark by 2036. I believe these were based on upgrades to its Wastewater plant, which doesn't sound like something that could sustain growth. It seems useless trying to estimate the population projections in any northern community, sometimes they shrink dramatically between censuses and other times they post a healthy growth.

Do you think climate change will have positive (or negative) growth effects on some of these northern communities in the next few decades?

The only thing that might help Thompson's growth in the next few years is the high population increases of the local Native communities in northern Manitoba. I doubt climate change will do much with respect to growth there - the Canadian Shield isn't good for farming, so there's no point in developing any agriculture up there. Economic growth in Northern Manitoba will be centered around the mining industry, like it has been for the past 60 years.

[balletomane]

Originally Posted by wave46

At any rate, I'm pleasantly surprised by Winnipeg's growth and am happy for the city and its residents.

I hope the city continues its steady pace of growth and when people look back at the '80s and '90s, they see the nadir of Winnipeg and how it's come back (kind of like how NYC had its nadir in the 1970s).

Me too! I'm eager for the CMA to reach 1 million, I think, at least in the Canadian context, that when a city reaches 1 million it really throws it not only into the national spotlight but international too. Even though the 1 million threshold is becoming less relevant internationally, with the 500+ cities already over that point, it still means quite a bit for the city itself.
Its like a town reaching that 10,000 person threshold for it to become a city, maybe it doesn't mean much to outsiders, but its like a little confidence boost for the residents of that community.

[BAKGUY]

Originally Posted by Jets4Life

I read that thread a couple of months ago. My assumption is people in Southern Ontario are delusional, or cannot point to Winnipeg on a map.

I have chatted and met people , many born in Canada that believe Winnipeg is only a bit larger than Thunder bay or about the size of Regina.
Born in Ontario or Quebec more specifically...But even immigrants living here for awhile have no idea if they live in Ontario or Quebec. In schools curriculum, we were taught in Manitoba about all major and mid sized cities in all of Canada.

[balletomane]

Originally Posted by BAKGUY

I have chatted and met people , many born in Canada that believe Winnipeg is only a bit larger than Thunder bay or about the size of Regina.
Born in Ontario or Quebec more specifically...But even immigrants living here for awhile have no idea if they live in Ontario or Quebec. In schools curriculum, we were taught in Manitoba about all major and mid sized cities in all of Canada.

I've found the same with people out east, they seem to think we're some city half our size. I've also found that along with British Columbians, they seem to think that our crime rate is exceptionally high and we are comparable to places like Detroit or Chicago.
I once had someone ask me if they were safe walking to the Delta from the MTS Centre, they were genuinely afraid they would be assaulted if they walked ONE block.

[Jets4Life]

Originally Posted by balletomane

I've found the same with people out east, they seem to think we're some city half our size. I've also found that along with British Columbians, they seem to think that our crime rate is exceptionally high and we are comparable to places like Detroit or Chicago.
I once had someone ask me if they were safe walking to the Delta from the MTS Centre, they were genuinely afraid they would be assaulted if they walked ONE block.

Considering Abbotsford and Surrey now have a relatively similar violent crime rate as Winnipeg, I guess they never venture out into the suburbs of Vancouver.

I guess it does not help either that Macleans, Canada's biggest tabloid magazine, publishes a left-leaning Vancouver woman's take on Winnipeg being the most racist city in Canada.

[GreyGarden]

I think that Macleans article really set winnipeg back perception wise quite a bit. It in a sense falsely confirmed what people in BC and Ontario thought about the city, that we are like the Detroit or Chicago crime wise of the north. I thought it raised some good/interesting points but to label the city the way they did I thought was just shotty journalism.

[balletomane]

I have always hated that MacLean's article, not because they called out the race issues in Winnipeg, but because they sensationalized it.

"Canada's Most Racist City"
-There is no need to sensationalize a very real and pressing issue that effects all Canadian cities in different ways
-How did the quantify us, how do you quantify what city is "most racist"?

[blueandgoldguy]

Originally Posted by balletomane

I have always hated that MacLean's article, not because they called out the race issues in Winnipeg, but because they sensationalized it.

"Canada's Most Racist City"
-There is no need to sensationalize a very real and pressing issue that effects all Canadian cities in different ways
-How did the quantify us, how do you quantify what city is "most racist"?

Their methodology was based on tweets with racist remarks

I remember listening to part of a recording of a radio interview with the author of the article. She stammered her way through the interview as Wheeler of all people pressed her on the process by which she arrived at her results.

[Spocket]

Originally Posted by balletomane

I have always hated that MacLean's article, not because they called out the race issues in Winnipeg, but because they sensationalized it.

"Canada's Most Racist City"
-There is no need to sensationalize a very real and pressing issue that effects all Canadian cities in different ways
-How did the quantify us, how do you quantify what city is "most racist"?

They quantified it by ignoring Toronto, assuming Montreal's racism wasn't really racism but rather language issues, and everybody else was just in love with everybody else. But they had somebody who had been to Winnipeg and seen something they didn't like. That's one more than everybody else so that makes us the winner.

Toronto is the only place I ever experienced racism but meh...center of the universe and all.

[Jammon]

Originally Posted by Spocket

They quantified it by ignoring Toronto, assuming Montreal's racism wasn't really racism but rather language issues, and everybody else was just in love with everybody else. But they had somebody who had been to Winnipeg and seen something they didn't like. That's one more than everybody else so that makes us the winner.

Toronto is the only place I ever experienced racism but meh...center of the universe and all.

Macleans is a garbage publication. It's Toronto-centric and overly relies on sensationalism to sell their publications. I stopped reading when they continued to publish opinion columns from Conrad Black's wife- as if Canada really cares about the opinion of the wife of a white-collar criminal.

[esquire]

Originally Posted by Jammon

Macleans is a garbage publication. It's Toronto-centric and overly relies on sensationalism to sell their publications. I stopped reading when they continued to publish opinion columns from Conrad Black's wife- as if Canada really cares about the opinion of the wife of a white-collar criminal.

It should be pointed out that Barbara Amiel was a columnist for Maclean's since sometime in the late 70s, long before she married Conrad Black in the 90s. It's inaccurate to suggest that she was only in that magazine because her husband pulled some strings for her.

[Jammon]

Originally Posted by esquire

It should be pointed out that Barbara Amiel was a columnist for Maclean's since sometime in the late 70s, long before she married Conrad Black in the 90s. It's inaccurate to suggest that she was only in that magazine because her husband pulled some strings for her.

That wasn't what I had suggested, but she is nothing more than a mere socialite who wrote about her experiences after he went to jail. And most of her publications center around the socialite experiences in Toronto. My implication was more about credibility as a journalist, not that her position at Macleans had anything to do with Black. However, with that being said, my opinion on Macleans as a publication will never change.

[balletomane]

Just for fun...
My prediction for Winnipeg when it hits 1 million in 15-20 years.

-Visible Minorities will comprise roughly 33% of the CMA population.
-Aboriginals will comprise roughly 13% of the CMA population.
-The most ethnically diverse neighborhoods will be in the West End, with the Visible Minority and Aboriginal populations comprising about two-thirds the area's population.
-The Aboriginal population will still be highly concentrated in the North End, but there will also be a notable increase in the suburbs.
-North and South Point Douglas and West Broadway will become much more desirable in the coming years, as Downtown vibrancy pushes outwards. I imagine West Broadway having a Corydon vibe.
-The Perimeter Highway will become more freeway like as at-grade crossings are replaced by interchanges.
-The inner ring road will be nearing completion.
-BRT will be complete, but there will be growing calls for LRT instead.
-South Portage will be less of a parking wasteland, with more projects like Marie Rose Place and 3 or so new buildings matching or topping the ones at P&M.
-Parcel 4 will be under development and much more integrated with The Forks and the rest of Downtown.
-Overall, the crime rate will remain little changed from today.
-Downtown, and the neighborhoods that border it will begin to lose the perception that they are unsafe.
-The most dangerous neighborhoods will still be those within the Main, Redwood, Arlington and Selkirk blocks.

[Pinus]

Originally Posted by balletomane

Just for fun...
My prediction for Winnipeg when it hits 1 million in 15-20 years.

-Visible Minorities will comprise roughly 33% of the CMA population.
-Aboriginals will comprise roughly 13% of the CMA population.
-The most ethnically diverse neighborhoods will be in the West End, with the Visible Minority and Aboriginal populations comprising about two-thirds the area's population.
-The Aboriginal population will still be highly concentrated in the North End, but there will also be a notable increase in the suburbs.
-North and South Point Douglas and West Broadway will become much more desirable in the coming years, as Downtown vibrancy pushes outwards. I imagine West Broadway having a Corydon vibe.
-The Perimeter Highway will become more freeway like as at-grade crossings are replaced by interchanges.
-The inner ring road will be nearing completion.
-BRT will be complete, but there will be growing calls for LRT instead.
-South Portage will be less of a parking wasteland, with more projects like Marie Rose Place and 3 or so new buildings matching or topping the ones at P&M.
-Parcel 4 will be under development and much more integrated with The Forks and the rest of Downtown.
-Overall, the crime rate will remain little changed from today.
-Downtown, and the neighborhoods that border it will begin to lose the perception that they are unsafe.
-The most dangerous neighborhoods will still be those within the Main, Redwood, Arlington and Selkirk blocks.

Neighbourhoods

[Jets4Life]

Originally Posted by balletomane

Just for fun...
My prediction for Winnipeg when it hits 1 million in 15-20 years.

-Visible Minorities will comprise roughly 33% of the CMA population.
-Aboriginals will comprise roughly 13% of the CMA population.
-The most ethnically diverse neighborhoods will be in the West End, with the Visible Minority and Aboriginal populations comprising about two-thirds the area's population.
-The Aboriginal population will still be highly concentrated in the North End, but there will also be a notable increase in the suburbs.
-North and South Point Douglas and West Broadway will become much more desirable in the coming years, as Downtown vibrancy pushes outwards. I imagine West Broadway having a Corydon vibe.
-The Perimeter Highway will become more freeway like as at-grade crossings are replaced by interchanges.
-The inner ring road will be nearing completion.
-BRT will be complete, but there will be growing calls for LRT instead.
-South Portage will be less of a parking wasteland, with more projects like Marie Rose Place and 3 or so new buildings matching or topping the ones at P&M.
-Parcel 4 will be under development and much more integrated with The Forks and the rest of Downtown.
-Overall, the crime rate will remain little changed from today.
-Downtown, and the neighborhoods that border it will begin to lose the perception that they are unsafe.
-The most dangerous neighborhoods will still be those within the Main, Redwood, Arlington and Selkirk blocks.

For fun, I will also do predictions for Winnipeg when it hits 1 million in 15-20 years.

-Visible Minorities will comprise roughly 38% of the CMA population.
-Aboriginals will comprise roughly 15% of the CMA population.
-The most ethnically diverse neighborhoods will be in the North End, with the Visible Minority and Aboriginal populations comprising about two-thirds the area's population.
-The Aboriginal population will still be highly concentrated in the North End, but there will also be a notable increase in the suburbs.
-North and South Point Douglas and West Broadway will become much more desirable in the coming years, as Downtown vibrancy pushes outwards. I imagine West Broadway having a Corydon vibe. (I agree)
-The Perimeter Highway will remain as is. The city will concentrate on the inner city beltline, and Centreport.
-The inner ring road will be nearing completion.
-BRT will be complete, but there will be growing calls for LRT instead.
-South Portage will be less of a parking wasteland.
-Parcel 4 will be under development and hopefully a Supermarket like Superstore or Wal-Mart will be built there, encouraging residents to move close to that area.
-Overall, the crime rate will remain little changed from today.
-Downtown, and the neighborhoods that border it will begin to lose the perception that they are unsafe.
-The most dangerous neighborhoods will still be the North End, with Weston and Tyndall Park becoming rougher.

[balletomane]

I guess we'll have to wait and see what happens! It would be interesting if many of our projections came true!

[balletomane]

I was looking at NHS data from 2011 and forward commuting patterns (one of the "rules" Statistics Canada uses for determining CMAs and CAs) in Manitoba.
About 45% of the working population in Rockwood, St. Andrews and Stonewall worked in Winnipeg at that time, so I wouldn't doubt if these municipalities will be included in the Winnipeg CMA by the 2021 census, which would substantially increase our estimates.

Anchor city and surrounding municipalities in brackets with forward commuting patterns of 50% or more:
-Brandon (Cornwallis RM, Elton RM, Whitehead RM, Oakland RM)
-Winkler-Morden (Stanley RM)
-Portage la Prairie (Portage la Prairie RM) - not sure why RM is not included in Portage la Prairie, maybe in 2021 census?
-The Pas-Opaskwayak (Kelsey RM)
-Flin Flon (Creighton, Denare Beach)
-data for the RM of Dauphin has not available, although I suspect it would have exceeded 50% forward commuting for the City of Dauphin.

Other communities I figured would have been closer to the 50% threshold but were not:
-Selkirk (I thought would be included in Winnipeg CMA in near future), but was only about 25%
-RM of Hanover (I thought would be included in Steinbach CA in near future), but was only about 40%
-RM of La Broquerie (I thought would be included in Steinbach CA in near future), but was only about 40%

If just forward commuting patters are analyzed our largest agglomerations are:
1. Winnipeg 778,489
2. Brandon 58,003
3. Winkler-Morden 30,297
4. Portage la Prairie 20,279
5. Steinbach 15,829
6. Thompson 13,678
7. Dauphin 10,895
8. The Pas 10,827
9. Selkirk 10,278
10. Flin Flon 7,366

[Jets4Life]

For the Winnipeg CMA, I am not sure which year the RM of MacDonald was added, but it has roughly 6,000 people. It may have been 10 years ago. I've always been suprised that St.Andrews barely fails to meet the criteria of being in the CMA, but has a population of 12,500 (does not include Dunnottar, Winnipeg Beach, or Selkirk). RM of Rockwood has approx. 8,000 people.


According to the Winnipeg census count, the CMA of Winnipeg would be as follows if Rockwood and St.Andrews met the 50% commuter threshold:

Winnipeg CMA 828,000
St.Andrews 12,500
Rockwood 8,000
-----------------------
Winnipeg CMA = 849,500

[balletomane]

Data for each municipality that meets the 50% commuter threshold by community in Manitoba.
The percentages are derived by adding the total working population by place of work status not including those with no fixed work address (how Statistics Canada determines their commuting numbers). This total is then divided by the commuting population working in the selected (Place of Work) municipality. In brackets is the % of commuting population (usual place of work and no fixed address) working in the selected (Place of Work) municipality.

Place of Work: Winnipeg
1. Winnipeg, CY 91.5% (85.8%)
2. East St. Paul, RM 76.6% (74.8%)
3. West St. Paul, RM 75.3% (74.1%)
4. Headingley, RM 74.7% (74.7%)
5. Ritchot, RM 68.2% (65.2%)
6. St. Francois-Xavier, RM 64.9% (56.3%)
7. Springfield, RM 62.2% (60.4%)
8. Tache, RM 62.2% (55.6%)
9. MacDonald, RM 60.7% (62.5%)
10. St. Clements, RM 57.6% (52.1%)
11. Teulon, T 57.4% (53.9%)
12. St. Andrews, RM 49.9% (47.1%)
13. Stonewall, T 46.3% (44.2%)
14. Rockwood, RM 44.7% (44.9%)
15. Cartier, RM 42.7% (42.7%)
16. Rosser, RM 40.7% (53.2%)

Place of Work: Brandon
1. Brandon, CY 88.3% (81.6%)
2. Oakland, RM 63.5% (62.2%)
3. Elton, RM 58.0% (88.8%)
4. Whitehead, RM 55.6% (61.8%)
5. Cornwallis, RM 52.1% (50.4%)

Place of Work: Steinbach
1. Steinbach, CY 72.4% (64.4%)
2. La Broquerie, RM 45.8% (39.4%)
3. Hanover, RM 42.1% (38.0%)

Place of Work: Thompson
1. Thompson, CY 94.7% (89.0%)

Place of Work: Portage la Prairie
1. Portage la Prairie, CY 79.8% (74.2%)
2. Portage la Prairie, RM 62.6% (64.4%)

Place of Work: Winkler (Morden)
1. Winkler, CY 77.9% (73.5%)
2. Stanley, RM 60.0% (53.0%)
3. Morden, CY 26.9% (25.1%)

Place of Work: Selkirk
1. Selkirk, CY 62.5% (57.2%)

Place of Work: Dauphin
1. Dauphin, CY 85.2% (80.8%)
2. Dauphin, RM ~70.0% (2006 ?)

Place of Work: The Pas
1. The Pas, T 82.2% (76.8%)
2. Kelsey, RM 62.1% (58.7%)
3. Opaskwayak, IR 16.8% (15.0%)

Place of Work: Flin Flon
1. Flin Flon, CY 84.2% (74.4%)
2. Creighton, T 64.8% (57.5%)
3. Denare Beach, NV 54.9% (50.0%)