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  #21  
Old Posted Apr 18, 2019, 5:05 PM
muertecaza muertecaza is offline
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Can someone look at this table and confirm that I'm reading it right?

https://factfinder.census.gov/faces/...xhtml?src=bkmk

It looks like on last year's yearly detailed estimates, for some reason the official Census table is mistakenly counting positive international migration as a negative for total migration. So for instance in NY, they had -50k domestic migration, and +160k international migration, but it's showing on the table as -210k net migration. I find it hard to believe that they would not identify such a simple error, so I am doubting myself, but that's what it looks like. And if that is the case, and the error is continuing to this year, that would definitely explain the negative population growth numbers for the big metros that are magnets for international migration. I guess we'll have to see when the details are released.
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  #22  
Old Posted Apr 18, 2019, 5:05 PM
mhays mhays is offline
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Trump is pretty clearly trying to influence the census count, so it's no great leap to guess that he might be trying to influence the estimates too.

Edit: or could it be as simple as math/data errors? Somewhat understandable due to staffing cutbacks and rushing due to the government shutdown...?
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  #23  
Old Posted Apr 18, 2019, 5:09 PM
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Wow, Pittsburgh ain't doing too well, that's surprising, we lost 5k people in a freaking year
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  #24  
Old Posted Apr 18, 2019, 5:17 PM
Obadno Obadno is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MonkeyRonin View Post
New York, Los Angeles, and Chicago have lost population between 2017 and 2018? Any idea what would be causing that?
Fleeing expensive places has been a trend in the USA for decades. California has become particularly unaffordable in recent years.
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  #25  
Old Posted Apr 18, 2019, 5:21 PM
Obadno Obadno is offline
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Originally Posted by Antares41 View Post
I heard that the federal cap on deductible effecting mostly high income earners may also be fueling some of the rationale behind the growing exodus from places like NYC.
That hasnt been in effect long enough to see a significant change in population among wealthy households.

Furthermore everyone is far more effected by local taxes and policy than federal.
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  #26  
Old Posted Apr 18, 2019, 5:40 PM
iheartthed iheartthed is offline
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Originally Posted by azliam View Post
Something's off about NYC's ACS estimates. For NYC's population estimate to be even remotely accurate, all of the growth in NY Metro since 2010 had to have occurred in the five boroughs. NYC also would have needed to offset losses in NY Metro outside of the five boroughs. Newark and Jersey City are also showing population increases, so this isn't likely unless some major losses elsewhere are being masked.

Last edited by iheartthed; Apr 18, 2019 at 6:06 PM.
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  #27  
Old Posted Apr 18, 2019, 5:58 PM
Obadno Obadno is offline
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Originally Posted by iheartthed View Post
Something off about NYC's ACS estimates. For NYC's population estimate to be even remotely accurate, all of the growth in NY Metro since 2010 had to have occurred in the five boroughs. NYC also would have needed to offset losses in NY Metro outside of the five boroughs. Newark and Jersey City are also showing population increases, so this isn't likely unless some major losses elsewhere are being masked.
From the perspective of the faster growing cities, it isnt that surprising. The amount of regugees from these places in the last several years is astonishing.

Californians hemoraging into neighboring states are like reverse okees.
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  #28  
Old Posted Apr 18, 2019, 5:59 PM
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dimondpark dimondpark is offline
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Citypopulation.de posted the numbers showing the new OMB MSA/CSA boundaries.

Largest CSAs by Population, 2018:
22,679,948 New York
18,764,814 Los Angeles
9,866,910 Chicago
9,796,147 Washington DC
9,666,055 San Francisco
8,285,407 Boston
7,948,477 Dallas
7,204,035 Philadelphia
7,183,143 Houston
6,913,262 Miami
6,775,511 Atlanta
5,353,002 Detroit
4,911,851 Phoenix
4,853,364 Seattle
4,096,575 Orlando
3,999,565 Minneapolis
3,599,264 Cleveland
3,572,798 Denver
3,343,364 San Diego
3,239,335 Portland
3,142,663 Tampa
2,909,777 St Louis
2,753,180 Charlotte
2,619,754 Sacramento
2,612,492 Pittsburgh
2,606,548 Salt Lake City
2,537,852 San Antonio
2,509,850 Columbus
2,487,053 Kansas City
2,431,361 Indianapolis
2,276,993 Las Vegas
2,272,152 Cincinnati
2,168,316 Austin
2,049,391 Milwaukee
2,042,649 Raleigh
2,032,353 Nashville

Phoenix will likely surpass 5 million this year and Seattle likely will in a few years.

That will bring the US to 14 CSAs with a 5 million+ population
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  #29  
Old Posted Apr 18, 2019, 6:06 PM
Obadno Obadno is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dimondpark View Post
Citypopulation.de posted the numbers showing the new OMB MSA/CSA boundaries.

Largest CSAs by Population, 2018:
22,679,948 New York
18,764,814 Los Angeles
9,866,910 Chicago
9,796,147 Washington DC
9,666,055 San Francisco
8,285,407 Boston
7,948,477 Dallas
7,204,035 Philadelphia
7,183,143 Houston
6,913,262 Miami
6,775,511 Atlanta
5,353,002 Detroit
4,911,851 Phoenix
4,853,364 Seattle
4,096,575 Orlando
3,999,565 Minneapolis
3,599,264 Cleveland
3,572,798 Denver
3,343,364 San Diego
3,239,335 Portland
3,142,663 Tampa
2,909,777 St Louis
2,753,180 Charlotte
2,612,492 Pittsburgh
2,606,548 Salt Lake City
2,537,852 San Antonio
2,509,850 Columbus
2,487,053 Kansas City
2,431,361 Indianapolis
2,276,993 Las Vegas
2,272,152 Cincinnati
2,168,316 Austin
2,049,391 Milwaukee
2,042,649 Raleigh
2,032,353 Nashville

Phoenix will likely surpass 5 million this year and Seattle likely will in a few years.

That will bring the US to 14 CSAs with a 5 million+ population
I still think something is wrong with the CSA's Phoenix now has a CSA but in my oppinon Payson and Strawberry now included are in no way ecinomically or culturally related to the phoenix metro. They are small towns in the forest for cabins or stopping for gas on your way to camping. Plus its almost an hour through empty wilderness to get there.

Edit: removed giant picture
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  #30  
Old Posted Apr 18, 2019, 6:08 PM
dave8721 dave8721 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by azliam View Post
At the 2010 Census, Philadelphia was the 5th largest MSA. It will be 9th by the 2020 Census.
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  #31  
Old Posted Apr 18, 2019, 6:20 PM
Gantz Gantz is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Crawford View Post
I think that plays a role, but probably the biggest factor is Trumpian meddling in the Census, where they have intentionally sought to undercount underrepresented populations

Note that Staten Island is the only NY borough that showed growth. But SI has, by far, the highest homeownership rate, and would, by far, be most affected by the tax changes. And it has been affected; it has the slowest housing price growth in the city and the least housing permits. It also has the fastest declining school-age population.

The fastest growth in school-age population is in Queens and Brooklyn, but those boroughs had the greatest Census declines. Either the Census estimate changes are correcting for overestimates in previous years, or they're off. I don't believe SI is growing, if the other boroughs aren't.
Stop with the conspiracy theories.
1. These census estimates do not even account for future population loss due to tax changes, since they are lagging by one year and people just do not suddenly move within a week. Population loss due to tax changes will be reflected in '19 and '20 census results.
2. LA and NYC are losing pop. due to slowdown in international immigration. Both places have enormous net negative domestic migration due to their high cost of living. The moment they start showing less foreign migrants, they start looking like Chicago.

NYS losses should accelerate, probably until Cuomo steps down and some future administration fixes the local state taxes instead of blaming Florida.
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  #32  
Old Posted Apr 18, 2019, 6:58 PM
Crawford Crawford is offline
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Originally Posted by Gantz View Post
Stop with the conspiracy theories.
Stop right there. If you believe the publicly documented annual changes to Census estimates are "conspiracy theories", then it's pretty clear you have no use for facts, you're just brainlessly spouting idiotic political tripe.

Take a look at the Census modifications. They're well documented. Census reports directly to Commerce Dept. Not everything is the fault of foreigners, liberals or the boogeyman du jour.
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  #33  
Old Posted Apr 18, 2019, 7:00 PM
azliam azliam is offline
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Originally Posted by Crawford View Post
Stop right there. If you believe the publicly documented annual changes to Census estimates are "conspiracy theories", then it's pretty clear you have no use for facts, you're just brainlessly spouting idiotic political tripe.

Take a look at the Census modifications. They're well documented. Not everything is the fault of foreigners, liberals or the boogeyman du jour.
My intention wasn't to bring politics into this thread.
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  #34  
Old Posted Apr 18, 2019, 7:03 PM
Obadno Obadno is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Crawford View Post
Stop right there. If you believe the publicly documented annual changes to Census estimates are "conspiracy theories", then it's pretty clear you have no use for facts, you're just brainlessly spouting idiotic political tripe.

Take a look at the Census modifications. They're well documented. Census reports directly to Commerce Dept. Not everything is the fault of foreigners, liberals or the boogeyman du jour.
The proposed and currently blocked question on citizenship?

That doesnt effect this estimate.

Or the redefintion of CSA's and MSA's? You really think the Trump admin is trying to manipulate these little thing? How much time do you think administrations have? This kind of stuff is on autopilote by mid-level career beurocrats.

Who is president has very little impact on this kind of shit.
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  #35  
Old Posted Apr 18, 2019, 7:03 PM
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sopas ej sopas ej is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by the urban politician View Post
Metro LA lost population
Metro Los Angeles lost population between 2017-2018, but it grew overall from 2010-2018, as did NYC.
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  #36  
Old Posted Apr 18, 2019, 7:04 PM
mhays mhays is offline
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There's clearly political influence over the Census Department. If some people on SSP aren't critical thinkers, or have their heads in the sand...I guess that's why political influence can succeed.

BTW, I said I was suspicious about these estimates, because the numbers appear to have moved sharply down. If you know anything about statistics, that's a good warning sign to at least look into things further.
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  #37  
Old Posted Apr 18, 2019, 7:06 PM
Obadno Obadno is offline
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Originally Posted by mhays View Post
There's clearly political influence over the Census Department. If some people on SSP aren't critical thinkers, or have their heads in the sand...I guess that's why political influence can succeed.

BTW, I said I was suspicious about these estimates, because the numbers appear to have moved sharply down. If you know anything about statistics, that's a good warning sign to at least look into things further.
Did you ever consider in rougher ecinomic times people flock to cities due to better job opportunities.

Have you also considerd that maybe, becasue of an improving economy people can now leave expensive cities for job opportunities in smaller cities and towns that werent there 3 or 4 years ago? Chicago LA and NY losing a couple thousand people this year is hardly a surprise or a major concern.

Not everything is a nefarious polticial game.
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  #38  
Old Posted Apr 18, 2019, 7:09 PM
the urban politician the urban politician is online now
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Originally Posted by sopas ej View Post
Metro Los Angeles lost population between 2017-2018, but it grew overall from 2010-2018, as did NYC.
As did Chicago. But we're mostly discussing the 2017-2018 change here.
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  #39  
Old Posted Apr 18, 2019, 7:12 PM
mhays mhays is offline
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I watch stuff like that as part of my job. But I'm drawing a blank for why there would be a sharp downturn in several cities (not in the region I watch). Sharp changes without good reasons tend to equal changes in methodology or sometimes errors.
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  #40  
Old Posted Apr 18, 2019, 7:12 PM
Obadno Obadno is offline
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Originally Posted by the urban politician View Post
As did Chicago. But we're mostly discussing the 2017-2018 change here.
Yes Chicago seems to very between shrinking and stagnant but has been growing slightly in recent years.

To see these cities once agin shift to shrinking isnt completely shocking when looking at long time trends and just for one year which could be an outlier.

LA and Costal california has been playing a game of Chiken with its population for years and the damn broke in recent years. Expect to see many cali cities begin to suffer population flight unless they reverse course.
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