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  #81  
Old Posted Apr 19, 2019, 7:39 PM
the urban politician the urban politician is offline
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Originally Posted by JAYNYC View Post
I'll go out on a limb and guess that having a reputation / consistently being ranked as one of America's most violent / dangerous cities might also have something to do with it, but who knows.
I often wonder if that’s true, considering how high it’s tourism numbers are.

If people are so scared, why are droves coming and staying in hotels, dining, going to museums, etc? I figure tourism would be hardest hit by reputations about crime and safety.
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  #82  
Old Posted Apr 19, 2019, 7:46 PM
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Originally Posted by the urban politician View Post
I often wonder if that’s true, considering how high it’s tourism numbers are.

If people are so scared, why are droves coming and staying in hotels, dining, going to museums, etc? I figure tourism would be hardest hit by reputations about crime and safety.
There is a difference in people visiting for a weekend and actually moving to/living in a city. Chicago has one of the worst reputations for crime in the country. Along with Baltimore, St Louis, New Orleans and Memphis.
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  #83  
Old Posted Apr 19, 2019, 7:50 PM
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There is a difference in people visiting for a weekend and actually moving to/living in a city. Chicago has one of the worst reputations for crime in the country. Along with Baltimore, St Louis, New Orleans and Memphis.
Chicago's crime rate is much lower than those cities and more on par with Philadelphia / Indianapolis / Milwaukee/ Atlanta / DC. Too high, but not Baltimore levels.
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  #84  
Old Posted Apr 19, 2019, 7:52 PM
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Originally Posted by Obadno View Post
That hasnt been in effect long enough to see a significant change in population among wealthy households.

Furthermore everyone is far more effected by local taxes and policy than federal.
I think many wealthy people made moves on the news of the changes... before the actual changes in the tax rules took effect. Plenty of time for that 0.10% of the population in NYC case to make adjustments and/or move. The fact that all three of our wealthiest metros took losses points to some type of common issue affecting certain demographic group.
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  #85  
Old Posted Apr 19, 2019, 8:07 PM
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Originally Posted by Antares41 View Post
I think many wealthy people made moves on the news of the changes... before the actual changes in the tax rules took effect. Plenty of time for that 0.10% of the population in NYC case to make adjustments and/or move. The fact that all three of our wealthiest metros took losses points to some type of common issue affecting certain demographic group.
It wasn't in effect until THIS tax filing, 4 days ago officially.

I guess you could have pre-empted it but high value real estate takes longer to sell and unless you are retiring or MEGA rich its hard to move on a whim.

You might have a point for people retiring and cashing out maybe but I still doubt the effects are enough to cause major population shifts right out the gate.

If that was the case you'd see cities populations drop every time extra taxes are introduced and you dont.
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  #86  
Old Posted Apr 19, 2019, 8:34 PM
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Originally Posted by JAYNYC View Post
I'll go out on a limb and guess that having a reputation / consistently being ranked as one of America's most violent / dangerous cities might also have something to do with it, but who knows.
Who knows? I do. . . it's fucking cold here. . . THAT'S why people leave. . . not because of some perceived threat (real or otherwise) of violence. . . to say so is ignorant of the facts and irresponsible. . .

. . .
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  #87  
Old Posted Apr 19, 2019, 8:40 PM
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Originally Posted by Obadno View Post
It wasn't in effect until THIS tax filing, 4 days ago officially.

I guess you could have pre-empted it but high value real estate takes longer to sell and unless you are retiring or MEGA rich its hard to move on a whim.

You might have a point for people retiring and cashing out maybe but I still doubt the effects are enough to cause major population shifts right out the gate.

If that was the case you'd see cities populations drop every time extra taxes are introduced and you dont.
Of course anticipated changes in the taxes law and people making adjustment on the urge of their accountants is not the only reason. This is a multi-faceted event that was driven by some long term trends and a few sudden changes that affect certain areas more than others. Lets see what things look like in 2020.
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  #88  
Old Posted Apr 19, 2019, 8:41 PM
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Originally Posted by JAYNYC View Post
Whichever poster said "combine New York & Philadelphia", and whichever poster later said "combine Chicago and Milwaukee" - you both sound ridiculous. Neither set of metro areas are connected by continuous urban area, and yes, I've driven between both numerous times.

I'll give you LA + Riverside and DC + Baltimore.
I've gone on record as saying that not only should Chicago and Milwaukee (I'd include Rockford, Illinois as well as Madison, Wisconsin) be combined but that the entirety of Southern California from Los Angeles - San Diego - Tijuana all the way west to the Imperial Valley up through Palm Springs. . . these areas (Northern Illinois/Southern Wisconsin as well as the California Southland) are inherently linked even though there may not be commuter data to support the census delineations. . . I'm sure one could find other examples where there's regional urban agglomerations exist but don't fit neatly into the census definitions. . .

. . .
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  #89  
Old Posted Apr 19, 2019, 8:43 PM
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Originally Posted by Tom In Chicago View Post
Who knows? I do. . . it's fucking cold here. . . THAT'S why people leave. . . not because of some perceived threat (real or otherwise) of violence. . . to say so is ignorant of the facts and irresponsible. . .

. . .
So why hasn't Minneapolis been losing population even faster than Chicago? Not sure if this is a tongue in cheek or not.....

I lived there for four years, and the winters were worse than in Chicago. It's not a huge difference, but that five degrees colder difference adds up over the winter and does wear on you. But..... had my job not been moved, I might actually still be there. Why? Because it's a great city with good job opportunities, great arts/theater, etc. Every city is different and as I said before, the forces driving people to move are often complex and vary from one city to the next. However, to distill it down to "Well, it's cold here, so that's why people are leaving" I think is a bit of a dumbing down of this discussion.

I am willing to bet that if the tax situation in Chicago was better for residents, and corruption wasn't rampant (which may very well improve given the new mayor), the population trends would be singing a whole different tune.
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  #90  
Old Posted Apr 19, 2019, 8:48 PM
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Originally Posted by twister244 View Post
So why hasn't Minneapolis been losing population even faster than Chicago? Not sure if this is a tongue in cheek or not.....

I lived there for four years, and the winters were worse than in Chicago. It's not a huge difference, but that five degrees colder difference adds up over the winter and does wear on you. But..... had my job not been moved, I might actually still be there. Why? Because it's a great city with good job opportunities, great arts/theater, etc. Every city is different and as I said before, the forces driving people to move are often complex and vary from one city to the next. However, to distill it down to "Well, it's cold here, so that's why people are leaving" I think is a bit of a dumbing down of this discussion.

I am willing to bet that if the tax situation in Chicago was better for residents, and corruption wasn't rampant (which may very well improve given the new mayor), the population trends would be singing a whole different tune.
I think many people in Minneapolis don't mind the winters as they have festivals. Also Minneapolis may be attracting many of the rural residents from the upper Midwest states. Chicago used to attract residents of the smaller cities in the Midwest, and I am not sure it does anymore - they may head to other parts of the country.
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  #91  
Old Posted Apr 19, 2019, 9:05 PM
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Minneapolis is nothing like Chicago and has no sizable historic black population they are not comparable at all.
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  #92  
Old Posted Apr 19, 2019, 10:21 PM
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Originally Posted by BG918 View Post
There is a difference in people visiting for a weekend and actually moving to/living in a city. Chicago has one of the worst reputations for crime in the country. Along with Baltimore, St Louis, New Orleans and Memphis.
^ This, 100%.
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  #93  
Old Posted Apr 19, 2019, 10:22 PM
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Originally Posted by Tom In Chicago View Post
Who knows? I do. . . it's fucking cold here. . . THAT'S why people leave. . . not because of some perceived threat (real or otherwise) of violence. . . to say so is ignorant of the facts and irresponsible. . .

. . .
Okay, if it makes you feel better, keep telling yourself that.
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  #94  
Old Posted Apr 19, 2019, 10:24 PM
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Originally Posted by twister244 View Post
So why hasn't Minneapolis been losing population even faster than Chicago? Not sure if this is a tongue in cheek or not.....

I lived there for four years, and the winters were worse than in Chicago. It's not a huge difference, but that five degrees colder difference adds up over the winter and does wear on you. But..... had my job not been moved, I might actually still be there. Why? Because it's a great city with good job opportunities, great arts/theater, etc. Every city is different and as I said before, the forces driving people to move are often complex and vary from one city to the next. However, to distill it down to "Well, it's cold here, so that's why people are leaving" I think is a bit of a dumbing down of this discussion.

I am willing to bet that if the tax situation in Chicago was better for residents, and corruption wasn't rampant (which may very well improve given the new mayor), the population trends would be singing a whole different tune.
I have lived in the most major cities on the West Coast, East Coast and in Texas, and based on conversations and observations from each city, 100% agree that the reputations of Minneapolis and Chicago are in no way comparable, whatsoever.

Minneapolis is - for the most part - perceived as both a desirable place to visit and to live, cold weather aside.

Chicago is generally viewed as an inexpensive tourist destination for residents of neighboring Midwest states (WI, IA, MO, IN, MI, etc.), not much of a favorable reputation beyond that (among non-skyscraper / urban planning aficionados).
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  #95  
Old Posted Apr 19, 2019, 10:31 PM
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Originally Posted by Tom In Chicago View Post
I've gone on record as saying that not only should Chicago and Milwaukee (I'd include Rockford, Illinois as well as Madison, Wisconsin) be combined

these areas (Northern Illinois/Southern Wisconsin) are inherently linked even though there may not be commuter data to support the census delineations. . .

I'm sure one could find other examples where there's regional urban agglomerations exist but don't fit neatly into the census definitions. . .

. . .
"inherently linked" = people discussing college & pro sports rivalries that exist between the two states / cities.

Beyond that, literally nothing connecting Chicago metro and Milwaukee metro aside from a few suburban warehouses and rural agricultural fields. Again, I've made the trek to / from numerous times, but please, by all means continue to convince yourself that the two should be combined if it makes you feel good.
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  #96  
Old Posted Apr 19, 2019, 10:44 PM
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Originally Posted by JAYNYC View Post
I have lived in the most major cities on the West Coast, East Coast and in Texas, and based on conversations and observations from each city, 100% agree that the reputations of Minneapolis and Chicago are in no way comparable, whatsoever.

Minneapolis is - for the most part - perceived as both a desirable place to visit and to live, cold weather aside.

Chicago is generally viewed as an inexpensive tourist destination for residents of neighboring Midwest states (WI, IA, MO, IN, MI, etc.), not much of a favorable reputation beyond that (among non-skyscraper / urban planning aficionados).
I would disagree. Many people I talk to like Chicago - Chicago is really many cities in one - a vibrant downtown, busy walkable north and near southside with lots of restaurants and entertainment, and struggling south and west side areas that are getting all the publicity. Many of the metros that are booming like Dallas, Phoenix, Orlando, Houston may be cheaper but they are much more sprawled out and have comparably fewer walkable entertainment districts than Chicago. I guess that is all right if you like a big house, pay lower taxes, don't want to hear about killings in the national news every day, and don't mind driving and driving and driving....
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  #97  
Old Posted Apr 19, 2019, 10:59 PM
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Originally Posted by SIGSEGV View Post
Chicago's crime rate is much lower than those cities and more on par with Philadelphia / Indianapolis / Milwaukee/ Atlanta / DC. Too high, but not Baltimore levels.
metropolitan-wise stl and chicago are pretty comparable if i recall. memphis is way worse.
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  #98  
Old Posted Apr 19, 2019, 11:03 PM
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As a Canadian when I look at this, I think cool, Toronto would be 2nd (1st if you include Hamilton) and Montreal would be 5th.
No, Greater Toronto-Hamilton would be the fastest growing. It added 141,261 people 2017-2018 bringing the total to 7,534,207. Interestingly, 2nd place Dallas, which added 131,767 people, has practically the same population: 7,539,711. That said, perhaps we should leave comparisons to Canadian metros out of this thread.
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  #99  
Old Posted Apr 20, 2019, 12:09 AM
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Originally Posted by Tom In Chicago View Post
Who knows? I do. . . it's fucking cold here. . . THAT'S why people leave. . . not because of some perceived threat (real or otherwise) of violence. . . to say so is ignorant of the facts and irresponsible. . .

. . .
I would think that the high taxes and budget issues are more of a push factor than violence in the 'hood and you're right, it is cold there which is a push factor as well.
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  #100  
Old Posted Apr 20, 2019, 12:53 AM
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Chicago is a bargain compared to up here. I was looking at some rentals, and picked downtown. Right near Grant Park out of curiousity. A 1 bedroom for $1,830 on North State, utter bargain.

A 1 bedroom on South Clark Street for 2k/month at 725 sq-ft.

This one is quite nice: https://hotpads.com/180-n-field-blvd...=-87.6166&z=17

Do you know what folks would do to have prices like this in some of the " nice and poppin' " areas in NJ/NY.

O man... I'd take a little cold with these prices. So much more housing for the buck.

Or one could just move to the South Side, but that would be a terrible idea.

Chicago actually can provide nice, luxurious city living experience, at reachable prices.
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