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Old Posted Jun 2, 2019, 5:01 PM
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Toronto Is The Fastest-Growing City In U.S. And Canada, And That’s Not Good

Toronto Is The Fastest-Growing City In U.S. And Canada, And That’s Not Good


06/01/2019

By Daniel Tencer

Read More: https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/entry/...b0e346ce7eef73

Quote:
Torontonians could find themselves “doubling up” on housing with friends or relatives in the coming years as the city’s breakneck population growth outstrips the supply of new housing, an urban planning expert is warning.

- In an analysis published online this week, researchers Frank Clayton and Eva Shi of Ryerson University’s Centre for Urban Research and Land Development found that Toronto is the fastest-growing city in the U.S. or Canada, and by a long shot. The city added more than 77,000 net new residents in the year ending in July, 2018, more than three times as many people as the next municipality, Phoenix, Ariz. The researchers describe this rate of growth as “stunning.” ― Looking at metro areas, Greater Toronto had the second-fastest population growth, behind only Dallas-Fort Worth. Greater Montreal was the sixth-fastest growing metro.

- But while that may look like success from some perspectives, it means the city is risking a serious housing crisis, study co-author Frank Clayton said. The region may see a repeat of the situation from the early 1990s, when developers pulled back on home construction amid falling house prices, but the population kept growing. ― People found themselves “doubling up” or “tripling up” on housing, often with more than one generation of family living in a single home, Clayton said. That effect could be particularly strong today, given that younger Canadians are already increasingly living with their parents.

- As is the case now, affordability was at multi-year lows. But unlike today, the economy was shrinking in the early 1990s, with the region losing some 200,000 jobs amidst a North American recession. Interest rates were high, making mortgages prohibitively expensive. The result was that developers couldn’t unload empty condos even as residents were forced into shared housing. ― Today’s home sales slowdown could result in something similar. Data from Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. shows developers are reacting to the slowdown by cutting back on new construction.

- Clayton says the single best thing the region could do, “but which they won’t do” is to open up single-family home neighbourhoods for multi-unit buildings of up to three or four stories. ― His skepticism stems from the fact proposals like this are often resisted by residents of low-rise neighbourhoods the NIMBY phenomenon. Yet these neighbourhoods, known as the “yellow belt” for their colour on city maps, account for three-quarters of the land area of the city of Toronto, Clayton noted. “With the growth that’s taking place, and land prices rising, you’ve got to start allowing for a more diverse housing stock,” he said.

- But he’s skeptical of the city’s proposal to mandate inclusionary zoning in essence, making a requirement that new condo buildings include some percentage of affordable homes, meaning below market rates. Clayton believes developers will simply unload the added costs onto buyers of the market-priced units. — “They’re going to raise the prices on the other 80 per cent. Which means other people have to pay more. If they try to up the prices, then resale condos become a better deal … so you give a windfall to existing homeowners again.” Also, that plan relies on the construction of large condo buildings to meet housing needs, and “research is showing that millennials want something more than a high-rise,” Clayton said, referring to surveys showing Canadian millennials overwhelmingly prefer low-rise housing.

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  #2  
Old Posted Jun 2, 2019, 5:16 PM
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Trump effect. Canada is tired of winning, Mr. President.
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Old Posted Jun 2, 2019, 5:20 PM
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Obviously this is all immigration.

Those immigrants would gladly come to the US in a heartbeat. But Canada is the next best choice
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Old Posted Jun 2, 2019, 6:01 PM
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Toronto is 1st in metro growth as well if a similar method was used for the caluclating metropolitan population was used between Canada and the US.

Montreal always gets over look but it's growing rapidly as well and adding more highrises than pretty much every other city in North America after Toronto and New York

Last edited by Nite; Jun 2, 2019 at 6:20 PM.
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Old Posted Jun 2, 2019, 6:12 PM
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This reporter seems to think growth within city limits is the more telling number...reporters typically don't get this stuff.

Toronto's infill is remarkable, but the above is still true.
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Old Posted Jun 2, 2019, 7:29 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mhays View Post
This reporter seems to think growth within city limits is the more telling number...reporters typically don't get this stuff.

Toronto's infill is remarkable, but the above is still true.
As Nite pointed out, even by metro it would be the fastest growing. I believe once you include the Hamilton and Oshawa CMA's you are north of 150,000.

This is the first year this has been the case mind you, Typically Toronto grows closer to 90-100k a year, putting it well behind Dallas - Fort Worth. The 125k number last year is near record.
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Old Posted Jun 2, 2019, 10:08 PM
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Dallas is the fastest growing major city in U.S./Canada.

Also, how many articles have we seen lamenting the supposed lack of multifamily in Toronto? Bizarre. They have tons of multifamily, and moreover, the multifamily is quite cheap compared to SFH, obviously suggesting that the problem isn't too little multifamily.

Also, LOL at the first sentence. Yeah, there are no immigrant families doubling up in Toronto presently. The Indian grannies you see walking around Brampton would never consider multigenerational living.
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Old Posted Jun 2, 2019, 11:02 PM
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"Toronto Is The Fastest-Growing City In U.S. And Canada"

Did I miss some sort of annexation? "In U.S."? I didn't receive an email, a fax, a memo, a care bear with a note on it pertaining to Toronto.


Maybe in North America.
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Old Posted Jun 2, 2019, 11:32 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Crawford View Post
Dallas is the fastest growing major city in U.S./Canada.

Also, how many articles have we seen lamenting the supposed lack of multifamily in Toronto? Bizarre. They have tons of multifamily, and moreover, the multifamily is quite cheap compared to SFH, obviously suggesting that the problem isn't too little multifamily.

Also, LOL at the first sentence. Yeah, there are no immigrant families doubling up in Toronto presently. The Indian grannies you see walking around Brampton would never consider multigenerational living.
Toronto metro population in a like for like comparison grew by 140,000 last year if we are going to compare it to US metros.
Toronto's CMA grew 125,000 by StatsCan definition though
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Old Posted Jun 3, 2019, 12:18 AM
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Originally Posted by iheartthed View Post
Trump effect. Canada is tired of winning, Mr. President.
We currently have 330 million people. Why would we want to have high population growth at this stage in our development? Do we actually want 500 million people here? 1 billion?

We have steady population growth along with a higher GDP than most other developed nations.
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Old Posted Jun 3, 2019, 12:20 AM
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Are they really writing an article off of one data point, one year?
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Old Posted Jun 3, 2019, 12:46 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by the urban politician View Post

Those immigrants would gladly come to the US in a heartbeat. But Canada is the next best choice
Your post is utter rubbish but if that helps you sleep at night. People emigrate to Canada because that's where they want to go. It certainly was for our family. It was Canada or Australia. The US was NOT on the list.
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Old Posted Jun 3, 2019, 1:03 AM
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Well huff huff huff.
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Old Posted Jun 3, 2019, 1:51 AM
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Old Posted Jun 3, 2019, 2:30 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by isaidso View Post
Your post is utter rubbish but if that helps you sleep at night. People emigrate to Canada because that's where they want to go. It certainly was for our family. It was Canada or Australia. The US was NOT on the list.
I don’t think he’s necessarily wrong. If you were given the ability to pick a passport of any country on earth, what would you pick? The US would be up there. The size of the country and much better climate are very attractive.. as are the job opportunities generally speaking.

Reality is that The US is much more difficult to enter though, so Canada it is for many. I’m sure many would pick Canada over the US, but I’m also sure for many it’s a second choice.

While this is the first year that Toronto has been “first” in growth, it has long stood in the top 3-4 with the classical high growth sunbelt cities. I also don’t expect it to fall from the position in the next few years either. Canada’s immigration policies are getting more liberal and admitting more people, and Alberta continues to be in a slump meaning that population growth will continue to go to Ontario.

It’s really an odd location for such a high growth city from an American perspective. All around southern Ontario is rust belt cities that are at best treading water in terms of population, then there is southern Ontario which is rocketing upwards in growth. A lot of the smaller cities in the province are growing even faster than Toronto. The difference in the two Niagara Falls on either side of the border is stark. The Ontario side is generally considered to be a “crappy” city but even then it is posting large population gains and is full of new subdivisions and houses.. then you cross the river and it’s all neighbourhoods falling apart and stagnant growth.
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Old Posted Jun 3, 2019, 2:44 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nite View Post


Toronto is 1st in metro growth as well if a similar method was used for the caluclating metropolitan population was used between Canada and the US.

Montreal always gets over look but it's growing rapidly as well and adding more highrises than pretty much every other city in North America after Toronto and New York
They forgot Montréal on the ''Population growth by city'' list, because Montréal was +37k in 2017-2018. Toronto and Montréal 1st and 2nd.

Montréal (City)

2011 : 1,674,853
2017 : 1,745,802
2018 : 1,782,844 (+37k)

Montréal (Island)

2011 : 1,913,451
2017 : 1,987,773
2018 : 2,029,379 (+41k)
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Old Posted Jun 3, 2019, 3:00 AM
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All wrangling about details aside, it's pretty remarkable growth for both cities. We don't hear much about Montreal's growth here.
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Old Posted Jun 3, 2019, 3:14 AM
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It's odd to characterize the City of Toronto as full of neighbourhoods with single-family houses only and lacking and actively opposing multi-family housing of any kind. Residential probably doesn't even take up 75% of the land in the City of Toronto, but somehow SFH does.

According to the 2016 Census, single-detached houses comprised only 24.2% of dwellings in the city in 2016. So over 3/4 of dwellings in the city are in multi-family structures. Even outside of the city, single-detached houses comprised only 56.4% of dwellings in the GTA. Even in the 905, it's hard to find neighbhourhoods without any multi-family housing.
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Old Posted Jun 3, 2019, 3:37 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mhays View Post
All wrangling about details aside, it's pretty remarkable growth for both cities. We don't hear much about Montreal's growth here.
Montréal is often overlooked. Greater Montréal had the strongest job growth among the 20 largest metropolitan areas in Canada and the United States. 74,900 jobs were created in 2017. growth rate of +3.61%

Greater Montréal was the leader in Canada in 2018 as well. GDP at +2.9%

The housing rental vacancy rate is under 2%. For three years now, in Greater Montreal, more rental housing has been built than condos. So there are a lot of offers that are added to the market, but the demand is so strong right now that it's causing a drop in the vacancy rate.
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Old Posted Jun 3, 2019, 3:45 AM
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^ Interesting, here are the us metropolitan area annual job growth numbers for 2019

https://www.bls.gov/regions/southwes...rth.htm#Table2

Nyc and Dallas over 100k, Chicago 60k, Houston 72k

It’s been a good run for both economies last couple years.
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