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  #61  
Old Posted Jul 9, 2019, 10:56 PM
Obadno Obadno is offline
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Originally Posted by Buckeye Native 001 View Post
As I said earlier, I'm not entirely optimistic that will happen but it's the only way the Valley (and Arizona as a whole) is going to be able to survive long-term. From where I stand (7000 feet up in the mountains of Northern Arizona), there's too much infighting between the Valley's cities (as well as within the City of Phoenix itself and it's dysfunctional city council) for any momentum to start addressing these issues right now.
I would like for you to expand on what this means. Because it reads like some kids-movie platitude about the importance of teamwork.
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  #62  
Old Posted Jul 9, 2019, 11:05 PM
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Las Vegas might be more desolate than Phoenix, but it's quite a bit cooler and drier. It also uses less water per capita.

But the real issue with these desert cities isn't sustainability per se (technology can make almost any place habitable), it's that they will never become truly urban, walkable cities. You're facing life-threatening temperatures for half the year (this will only get worse with climate change) and you'd have to be out of your mind to want to walk around for any length of time outside. They are designed for air-conditioned cars so they'll always have that suburban office park feel.
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  #63  
Old Posted Jul 9, 2019, 11:33 PM
azliam azliam is offline
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Originally Posted by edale View Post
I've seen you make this claim about Phoenix a few times, and it seems just as ludicrous to me each time I read it. Just because there was enough water in the area to support an agricultural village or Indian settlements, doesn't mean it's enough to support a metro area of 5 million people. The Salt River isn't exactly the Nile or the Tigris, and it runs dry for a large part of the year, again unlike its counterparts in the middle east. Also, comparing Phoenix to Cairo or Baghdad is ludicrous, as the latter two cities are very dense and are solidly desert cities. Phoenix, on the other hand, is pretty low density, and is littered with golf courses, houses with grassy yards, pools, etc. Everyone has air conditioning, people drive a ton (and probably a higher percentage of SUVs than the rest of the states), land use patterns encourage driving... There just isn't any comparison between old world desert cities and Phoenix. Even if Phoenix could be compared to Cairo, not sure that argument helps much any more. Cairo and the rest of Egypt may be in a full on water crisis soon, as Ethiopia appears to be moving forward with its Blue Nile dam. At least they are coastal and could perhaps lean on de-sal technology, something that isn't available to Arizona.
Learn something:
Amid drought, Phoenix plans for a future with less water - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FHcI-IvsC2U

Video Link
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  #64  
Old Posted Jul 10, 2019, 12:05 AM
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Phoenix uses less water today than it did 20 years ago, but it manages to serve 400,000 more people.

The supply of water is less of a problem today than it was in the 1990s.
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  #65  
Old Posted Jul 10, 2019, 12:13 AM
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Originally Posted by Obadno View Post
Also we are now officially out of drought thanks to an unusually wet and cool winter and spring (and summer actually but 103 is cooler than the normal 110 for this time of year).

as for wet bulb temps, confirms my experience with Midwest summers which I find much worse than even extreme Arizona heat
Pretty much the entire state is drought free [along with California].
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  #66  
Old Posted Jul 10, 2019, 12:19 AM
edale edale is offline
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This article seems to argue that Phoenix does, in fact, have major water issues.
https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2...-survive-water

“There are plans for substantial further growth and there just isn’t the water to support that,” says climate researcher Jonathan Overpeck, who co-authored a 2017 report that linked declining flows in the Colorado river to climate change. “The Phoenix metro area is on the cusp of being dangerously overextended. It’s the urban bullseye for global warming in north America.”

"In his 2011 book Bird on Fire, the New York University sociologist Andrew Ross branded Phoenix the least sustainable city in the world."

"Or, he says, you can just look at the past. The Hohokam people were the original irrigators of the valley that later became home to Phoenix. Their society, numbering an estimated 40,000, collapsed in the 15th century – for reasons believed to relate to disagreements over scarce water."
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  #67  
Old Posted Jul 10, 2019, 12:29 AM
edale edale is offline
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Back to the subject of this thread, were there any surprise cities from this decade? When I think back to 2010, the cities that I remember booming were Portland, Atlanta, maybe Charlotte, Dallas, Houston. I don't remember Nashville and Austin being talked about similarly. In fact, when I visited Austin in 2009, I remember thinking it was a pretty sleepy city with a very small skyline. Totally different scenario today.

What places will be the 'surprise' cities of the 2020s?
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  #68  
Old Posted Jul 10, 2019, 12:30 AM
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Originally Posted by edale View Post
Ok cool Phoenix is flush with water. Great.

Back to the subject of this thread, were there any surprise cities from this decade? When I think back to 2010, the cities that I remember booming were Portland, Atlanta, maybe Charlotte, Dallas, Houston. I don't remember Nashville and Austin being talked about similarly. In fact, when I visited Austin in 2009, I remember thinking it was a pretty sleepy city with a very small skyline. Totally different scenario today.

What places will be the 'surprise' cities of the 2020s?
Ten years ago Nashville and Austin were already booming. Austin cruised through the last recession fairly unscathed.
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  #69  
Old Posted Jul 10, 2019, 12:33 AM
azliam azliam is offline
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Originally Posted by edale View Post
This article seems to argue that Phoenix does, in fact, have major water issues.
https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2...-survive-water

“There are plans for substantial further growth and there just isn’t the water to support that,” says climate researcher Jonathan Overpeck, who co-authored a 2017 report that linked declining flows in the Colorado river to climate change. “The Phoenix metro area is on the cusp of being dangerously overextended. It’s the urban bullseye for global warming in north America.”

"In his 2011 book Bird on Fire, the New York University sociologist Andrew Ross branded Phoenix the least sustainable city in the world."

"Or, he says, you can just look at the past. The Hohokam people were the original irrigators of the valley that later became home to Phoenix. Their society, numbering an estimated 40,000, collapsed in the 15th century – for reasons believed to relate to disagreements over scarce water."
Apparently, you didn't learn.
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  #70  
Old Posted Jul 10, 2019, 12:42 AM
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Originally Posted by Denvergotback View Post

I honestly think hurricanes and weather could play a huge outcome for Houston and Orlando, I mean, a lot can be considered also for the 10 year span
Houston has been hit by hurricanes for decades and hasn't dampened the rapid growth. Economy and only the economy has effected growth. We laugh at hurricanes out here.
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  #71  
Old Posted Jul 10, 2019, 2:05 AM
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Originally Posted by Denvergotback View Post
I do have one question though, I see most of the south booming in large part because it attracts to many middle class people, but the wealthy undoubtedly have more options as to where to live, so at what point will Austin become too hyped up that it’s price tag no longer matches the value?
Metro Austin's east side is pretty wide open in terms of potential development. They've built a lot of new toll roads out there waiting for the growth to catch up, Austin still has lots of land to keep the momentum going.
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  #72  
Old Posted Jul 10, 2019, 2:11 AM
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Originally Posted by llamaorama View Post
Here is my prediction, trying to be objective:

1. There will be a recession at some point in the 20's
2. The tech industry will slow down a little as the industry grows mature and saturated and the dubiously overvalued companies get a reality check.
3. Trade will still be impacted by things set in motion by the Trump administration, and so manufacturing will slow down.
4. The number of immigrants will decrease, legal and illegal. Also Hispanics will be demographically older and have fewer kids.
5. The rest of the world led by the EU and China will start to take action against the fossil fuel and petrochemical industry due to climate change, while at the same time drilling technology will be even more sophisticated than it is now and keep supply high. Translation: oil industry won't boom again anytime soon.

Because of those things, I would expect:

1. The West Coast cities will all slow down a lot and SF and LA will actively lose population. The cost of living will accelerate negative domestic migration and there will be fewer immigrants moving there. At the same time the tech industry won't be as white-hot as it is now.

2. Smaller southern cities like Huntsville, Greenville, Charleston, Chattanooga, Montgomery, etc that had an advanced manufacturing renaissance will slow down due to trade issues and foreign competition coming back into play. Our major trading partners are signing deals with Asia without us and places where we'd export goods are going to get them from other places.

3. The Sunbelt will slow down in terms of absolute population change due to fewer immigrants. Places that are heavily service oriented like Orlando and Las Vegas will slow down. If there is a recession they'll get clobbered.

4. Houston will continue to grow quickly but oil won't make it go bonkers like it did around 2010 or so. It will continue to diversify. If there is a major hurricane again it have a few bad years but I don't see the growth stopping any time soon.

The cities that are growing rapidly next decade will look basically the same as now, I expect the leaders would then be:

Dallas
Phoenix
Charlotte
SLC
Nashville
Denver
Houston
I'll second this.
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  #73  
Old Posted Jul 10, 2019, 2:32 AM
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Originally Posted by edale View Post
Back to the subject of this thread, were there any surprise cities from this decade? When I think back to 2010, the cities that I remember booming were Portland, Atlanta, maybe Charlotte, Dallas, Houston. I don't remember Nashville and Austin being talked about similarly. In fact, when I visited Austin in 2009, I remember thinking it was a pretty sleepy city with a very small skyline. Totally different scenario today.

What places will be the 'surprise' cities of the 2020s?
Portland's growth of 2018 was half the rate of 2016, so there's definitely been a slowdown due to exploding housing costs and a slowing economic expansion. But it'll ramp up again sometime I'm sure, as it will always be the more affordable west coast alternative to Seattle and SF. Growth policies (urban growth boundaries, etc.) will probably keep it from ever being a place like Houston or Charlotte... although the state is on the verge of banning single family zoning, so perhaps that will allow for more housing supply and slightly more reasonable prices. And urban growth boundaries have existed for decades during rapid growth periods, so who really knows.
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  #74  
Old Posted Jul 10, 2019, 3:22 AM
Denvergotback Denvergotback is offline
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Originally Posted by JManc View Post
Houston has been hit by hurricanes for decades and hasn't dampened the rapid growth. Economy and only the economy has effected growth. We laugh at hurricanes out here.
Wasn't the same true for New Orleans? All it took was 1 big one to destroy the local economy. In some ways the city is still recovering from that devastation, and all it took was one. Does that mean Houston may get “the one” in the next 10 years, or maybe ever? No, but one thing is for sure, that hurricanes are becoming more common, and all that does is up the chances for Houston to get one. To think that what happened to New Orleans couldn’t happen or affect Houston in a similar manner is very naive. History has a funny way of repeating itself.

It may get “enough” hurricanes and flooding in the next 10 years, that although may not destroy much, it could be enough to make companies and people to second guess moving there. Weather can effect the economy. I never said Houston will stop growing, I believe it will have a healthy economy for a long while, but in my opinion I don’t think it will be among the fastest growing cities in the 2020s. I personally believe Dallas will keep up steam for the next decade while Houston may cool off a bit. But that’s just my opinion and I could be very well wrong
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  #75  
Old Posted Jul 10, 2019, 3:29 AM
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Originally Posted by edale View Post
Back to the subject of this thread, were there any surprise cities from this decade? When I think back to 2010, the cities that I remember booming were Portland, Atlanta, maybe Charlotte, Dallas, Houston. I don't remember Nashville and Austin being talked about similarly. In fact, when I visited Austin in 2009, I remember thinking it was a pretty sleepy city with a very small skyline. Totally different scenario today.

What places will be the 'surprise' cities of the 2020s?
Although its convention & visitor's bureau and a few forumers on this board love to suggest that it is, Nashville is not comparable to Austin. Austin is more advanced in every meaningful category, yet Nashville residents enjoy associating with Austin's progress and consistently drawing analogies to it.

Nashville's development pace is much more similar to that of Salt Lake City and Jacksonville - two cities doing relatively well.

"Surprise" cities of the 2020's is completely subjective (it requires one to also have an opinion on which cities will have "expected" growth and development), but I would say:

Birmingham, AL
Fayetteville, NC
Tulsa, OK
Chattanooga, TN,
Little Rock, AR
El Paso, TX
Albuquerque, NM
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  #76  
Old Posted Jul 10, 2019, 3:30 AM
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Originally Posted by Denvergotback View Post
Wasn't the same true for New Orleans?
No, not at all. Apples and oranges.
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  #77  
Old Posted Jul 10, 2019, 3:31 AM
Obadno Obadno is offline
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Originally Posted by edale View Post
This article seems to argue that Phoenix does, in fact, have major water issues.
https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2...-survive-water

“There are plans for substantial further growth and there just isn’t the water to support that,” says climate researcher Jonathan Overpeck, who co-authored a 2017 report that linked declining flows in the Colorado river to climate change. “The Phoenix metro area is on the cusp of being dangerously overextended. It’s the urban bullseye for global warming in north America.”

"In his 2011 book Bird on Fire, the New York University sociologist Andrew Ross branded Phoenix the least sustainable city in the world."

"Or, he says, you can just look at the past. The Hohokam people were the original irrigators of the valley that later became home to Phoenix. Their society, numbering an estimated 40,000, collapsed in the 15th century – for reasons believed to relate to disagreements over scarce water."
that guardian article is poorly research, we literally laughed at it here in phoenix
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  #78  
Old Posted Jul 10, 2019, 3:34 AM
Obadno Obadno is offline
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Originally Posted by badrunner View Post
You're facing life-threatening temperatures for half the year (this will only get worse with climate change) and you'd have to be out of your mind to want to walk around for any length of time outside. They are designed for air-conditioned cars so they'll always have that suburban office park feel.
Midwestern and northern winter climate is far more life threatening than the worst heat Phoenix or Vegas can throw at you. with shade and water you can spend, albeit uncomfortable, but indefinite times outside in extreme temps.

There is no predictions that will put places like phoenix into literally unsurvivable temperatures due to global warming, thats just nonsense.

And lastly Vegas is cooler, but not by a meaningful amount, and the issue isnt heat for desert living it is access to water, and Vegas' is in a far more dire situation than Phoenix is.
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  #79  
Old Posted Jul 10, 2019, 3:44 AM
Denvergotback Denvergotback is offline
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Originally Posted by JAYNYC View Post
No, not at all. Apples and oranges.
How so? I understand New Orleans is below sea level but Houston does get some pretty serious flooding
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  #80  
Old Posted Jul 10, 2019, 3:58 AM
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Originally Posted by edale View Post
This article seems to argue that Phoenix does, in fact, have major water issues.
https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2...-survive-water

“There are plans for substantial further growth and there just isn’t the water to support that,” says climate researcher Jonathan Overpeck, who co-authored a 2017 report that linked declining flows in the Colorado river to climate change. “The Phoenix metro area is on the cusp of being dangerously overextended. It’s the urban bullseye for global warming in north America.”

"In his 2011 book Bird on Fire, the New York University sociologist Andrew Ross branded Phoenix the least sustainable city in the world."

"Or, he says, you can just look at the past. The Hohokam people were the original irrigators of the valley that later became home to Phoenix. Their society, numbering an estimated 40,000, collapsed in the 15th century – for reasons believed to relate to disagreements over scarce water."
Pfft, nonsense! Every city boaster on skyscraperpage also happens to be a climatologist/environmentalist with a PHD in climate change denialism here falling over themselves just to reassure us that all of this collective research from world wide experts is straight hogwash! pish-posh if you will. Why? because they said so! we good bro!
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