Federal Elections - Page 11

1overcosc · #**201** Posted **May 23, 2015, 10:56 PM**

Most progressives at this point just want to get rid of Harper. If either the Liberals or the NDP get substantially more momentum than the other, they'll basically eat the other alive.

danishh · #**202** Posted **Jun 1, 2015, 2:36 PM**

Hopefully people pay attention to regional and riding level polling. NDP is the better option for strategic voting from progressives in B.C, Alberta, and Quebec. Liberals are a better option in Ontario and the Atlantic provinces. Manitoba and Saskatchewan remain unclear at this point. Your riding may differ though.

Norman Bates · #**203** Posted **Jun 1, 2015, 4:22 PM**

I saw a whole mess of Lisa MacLeod signs laying on the ground along Moodie Drive this morning.

canabiz · #**204** Posted **Jun 1, 2015, 5:15 PM**

I actually saw Pierre Poilivievre jogging in Barrhaven yesterday. For all the issues with the existing government, I have to give it to this guy who has been very vocal and public about what the government has been doing to help families...I receive flyers in my mailbox from him every other month.

I know the election is still a good 4 months away but I have yet to hear/see any other candidates (NDP, Liberal, Green etc) for my riding. And I try to stay on top of the latest news (including political) as much as I could.

MoreTrains · #**205** Posted **Jun 1, 2015, 6:51 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by canabiz

I actually saw Pierre Poilivievre jogging in Barrhaven yesterday.

Did you jog up behind him a punch him in the back of the head?

The reason there are no candidates campaigning is because (as far as I know) they arent allowed to until the election has been called. The letters from current MPs is part of keeping their constituency informed as required by law, so not really campaigning. Just wait until the election is called, youll get plenty of literature from alot of prospects and incumbents.

HighwayStar · #**206** Posted **Jun 1, 2015, 7:10 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by canabiz

I actually saw Pierre Poilivievre jogging in Barrhaven yesterday. For all the issues with the existing government, I have to give it to this guy who has been very vocal and public about what the government has been doing to help families...I receive flyers in my mailbox from him every other month.

The PC party in general has been very vocal about what the government has been doing to "help families"... even if they are just proposals which haven't been passed yet. Poilivievre is doing nothing other than shoveling out partisan propaganda at taxpayer expense... no doubt precisely as ordered from the Dear Leader.

Go "Economic Action Plan" go..

kwoldtimer · #**207** Posted **Jun 1, 2015, 7:13 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by canabiz

I actually saw Pierre Poilivievre jogging in Barrhaven yesterday. For all the issues with the existing government, I have to give it to this guy who has been very vocal and public about what the government has been doing to help families...I receive flyers in my mailbox from him every other month.

I know the election is still a good 4 months away but I have yet to hear/see any other candidates (NDP, Liberal, Green etc) for my riding. And I try to stay on top of the latest news (including political) as much as I could.

I find his public pronouncements to be too often hyper-partisan and condescending. Just a bit of humility might make him tolerable, but I don't think humble is in his vocabulary.

1overcosc · #**208** Posted **Jun 1, 2015, 7:39 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by danishh

Hopefully people pay attention to regional and riding level polling. NDP is the better option for strategic voting from progressives in B.C, Alberta, and Quebec. Liberals are a better option in Ontario and the Atlantic provinces. Manitoba and Saskatchewan remain unclear at this point. Your riding may differ though.

Yep, depends exactly where. An Anti-CPC strategic voter in Ottawa would almost certainly do better voting Liberal.

I'm curious to see seat changes here. www.threehundredeight.com does modelling that projects polling data to individual ridings (which has proved pretty accurate in past provincial elections). Currently they're predicting a CPC minority. In Ottawa, for months now, Ottawa West-Nepean and Ottawa-Orleans have been modelled as Liberal gains, Kanata-Carleton going back and forth, and Nepean generally being a narrow tory hold.

Uhuniau · #**209** Posted **Jun 1, 2015, 7:48 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by canabiz

I actually saw Pierre Poilivievre jogging in Barrhaven yesterday. For all the issues with the existing government, I have to give it to this guy who has been very vocal and public about what the government has been doing to help families...I receive flyers in my mailbox from him every other month.

I know the election is still a good 4 months away but I have yet to hear/see any other candidates (NDP, Liberal, Green etc) for my riding. And I try to stay on top of the latest news (including political) as much as I could.

The other candidates do not have the advantage of being able to send "flyers" at taxpayer's expense.

Uhuniau · #**210** Posted **Jun 1, 2015, 7:49 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by MoreTrains

Did you jog up behind him a punch him in the back of the head?

The reason there are no candidates campaigning is because (as far as I know) they arent allowed to until the election has been called. The letters from current MPs is part of keeping their constituency informed as required by law, so not really campaigning. Just wait until the election is called, youll get plenty of literature from alot of prospects and incumbents.

There is no legal requirement for MPs to keep their constituency informed, and candidates can campaign already.

lrt's friend · #**211** Posted **Jun 1, 2015, 8:16 PM**

I am a little perturbed by how all the election spending rules are being circumvented by the Conservative government. First, we establish a fixed election date law, and just like in the U.S.A. this has just extended out the campaign by several months. Then, we do away with the old funding formula because the Conservatives knew that the other parties were not as effective fund raisers. This just promotes political gimmicks that will encourage donations, and just today, they said on the radio, that the target is males over 75, who are most likely to donate. And then, we conveniently only control spending during the 'official' election period. So, now we get inundated with non-election campaign political messages on TV. Sadly, this was all predictable.

JHikka · #**212** Posted **Jun 2, 2015, 2:23 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by canabiz

I know the election is still a good 4 months away but I have yet to hear/see any other candidates (NDP, Liberal, Green etc) for my riding. And I try to stay on top of the latest news (including political) as much as I could.

NDP and Liberal volunteers have been to my door in Ottawa Centre.

Cre47 · #**213** Posted **Jun 13, 2015, 3:04 PM**

Latest EKOS results shows a 7-point NDP lead, in Ontario they lead by 10 points. CPC is only leading in the Prairies, but there also those leads are dropping. In SK, it might be much closer due to the odd 23% for the Greens, which might easily be translated into NDP votes. NDP already had a pretty decent base in that province before the recent jump in the polls

Dr Nevergold · #**214** Posted **Jun 13, 2015, 3:07 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cre47

Latest EKOS results shows a 7-point NDP lead, in Ontario they lead by 10 points. CPC is only leading in the Prairies, but there also those leads are dropping. In SK, it might be much closer due to the odd 23% for the Greens, which might easily be translated into NDP votes. NDP already had a pretty decent base in that province before the recent jump in the polls

I mentioned this in the other thread, the NDP are enjoying a bump from the election in Alberta that surprised a lot of people. It is quite early to see if this translates into long standing support.

Cre47 · #**215** Posted **Jun 13, 2015, 3:12 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dr Nevergold

I mentioned this in the other thread, the NDP are enjoying a bump from the election in Alberta that surprised a lot of people. It is quite early to see if this translates into long standing support.

Of course, and also the recent news on the Senate (which also saw this week one of the Harper-named Senator been under investigation for working harassment and bullying) that is damaging to both Grits and Tories is probably also bumping them.

Meanwhile, the Conservative nomination in Kanata-Carleton is getting ugly now which is a good thing as this is a toss-up riding.

http://www.ottawacommunitynews.com/n...ands-in-court/

JHikka · #**216** Posted **Jun 13, 2015, 5:49 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cre47

Meanwhile, the Conservative nomination in Kanata-Carleton is getting ugly now which is a good thing as this is a toss-up riding.

http://www.ottawacommunitynews.com/n...ands-in-court/

Kanata-Carleton is going to remain Conservative. If anything, the real toss-up ridings are to be found in Nepean.

eternallyme · #**217** Posted **Jun 13, 2015, 11:21 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by JHikka

Kanata-Carleton is going to remain Conservative. If anything, the real toss-up ridings are to be found in Nepean.

I dunno, they would have to be really strong in West Carleton if Kanata were to break even (like it did in the last two provincial elections, Kanata was basically a draw in both).

The most Conservative parts of the current Carleton-Mississippi Mills riding - Mississippi Mills and rural Goulbourn - are being removed from the riding (along with Stittsville) due to population growth. About 80% of the new riding is suburban-based. That said, the Liberals probably can't wait for the 2022 redistribution, as Kanata should form its own riding by itself then.

However, if the NDP are gaining strength, it improves the Conservatives' odds of holding the suburban swing ridings, since the NDP are very weak in that riding and most of their gained vote would likely be from the Liberals or otherwise non-voters. In fact, outside of Ottawa Centre, the NDP don't have that much strength in Ottawa at all.

JHikka · #**218** Posted **Jun 13, 2015, 11:52 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by eternallyme

However, if the NDP are gaining strength, it improves the Conservatives' odds of holding the suburban swing ridings, since the NDP are very weak in that riding and most of their gained vote would likely be from the Liberals or otherwise non-voters. In fact, outside of Ottawa Centre, the NDP don't have that much strength in Ottawa at all.

Indeed. Gatineau-Hull don't seem to mind voting NDP, though. I would be interested to see how Ottawa-Vanier develops this election and if the NDP can make any inroads in that riding.

canabiz · #**219** Posted **Jun 14, 2015, 1:44 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by JHikka

Kanata-Carleton is going to remain Conservative. If anything, the real toss-up ridings are to be found in Nepean.

The other parties need to have solid candidates and run a strong campaign to have any chance of unseating the incumbent, Pierre P.

I know not many of the folks here are big fans of him/his party but he does have more than 10 years of experience (first elected in 2004) and for many voters in his riding, myself included, he is the only politician we know, love him or hate him.

Now if you are talking about Ottawa West - Nepean (John Baird's seat) then it is a different matter.

1overcosc · #**220** Posted **Jun 14, 2015, 8:37 PM**

Projecting the latest EKOS poll (which puts Ontario support at 36% NDP, 26% LPC, 26% CPC) onto individual ridings using the model at www.tooclosetocall.ca results in Ottawa-Vanier being an NDP gain, and Orleans and Ottawa West-Nepean being Liberal gains, with both Nepean and Kanata-Carleton being CPC holds.

Ottawa has plenty of competitive ridings this time... of the 8 ridings in the city, 6 of them (all but Carleton & Ottawa-Centre) are reasonably in play between at least two parties.

Ottawa West-Nepean is probably the biggest battleground as its tight. With the NDP surge, if it lasts, OWN will be a three way race. Ottawa-Vanier and Ottawa South could be in play between the Liberals and the NDP if the NDP momentum continues to build. Nepean & Kanata-Carleton are both potential Liberal gains (Kanata-Carleton more so). Orleans is probably foregone as a Liberal gain but it will still be fought over. Ottawa Centre on the other hand is probably a certain NDP hold, same with Carleton and the CPC.