Queen's Park Politics

[HillStreetBlues]

Originally Posted by eternallyme

While Flamborough-Glanbrook gives the PC's a fairly easy pickup on boundaries alone, it also puts Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas basically out of reach for them unless the Liberals completely collapse.

Sam Oosterhoff has to play a tough balancing act. In his riding, it would be quite beneficial to run on a socially conservative agenda (and get out the vote there), as old Lincoln County is very conservative. But that would be devastating to the party in urban areas.

I don't think Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas is completely out of reach of the Tories. Westdale is unwinnable, but it probably splits between NDP and Liberals anyway. Dundas probably likewise- Old Dundas is very lefty. Ancaster would be more likely to support Tories than Liberals all things being equal, but the riding also includes the Mountain west of West 5th. The urbanized areas (Westdale, and old Dundas and Ancaster) are of declining importance (Ward One is losing population). The area of this riding is more suburban every year.

I don't think Sam Oosterhoff has a lot of upside to playing up the social conservatism, as he can't lose his seat as the Tory candidate by being insufficiently right-wing: there are no alternatives. There are possible downsides to being too vocal with his opinions: possibly contributing to a party loss, or maybe even being kicked out of caucus.

[eternallyme]

Originally Posted by HillStreetBlues

I don't think Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas is completely out of reach of the Tories. Westdale is unwinnable, but it probably splits between NDP and Liberals anyway. Dundas probably likewise- Old Dundas is very lefty. Ancaster would be more likely to support Tories than Liberals all things being equal, but the riding also includes the Mountain west of West 5th. The urbanized areas (Westdale, and old Dundas and Ancaster) are of declining importance (Ward One is losing population). The area of this riding is more suburban every year.

I don't think Sam Oosterhoff has a lot of upside to playing up the social conservatism, as he can't lose his seat as the Tory candidate by being insufficiently right-wing: there are no alternatives. There are possible downsides to being too vocal with his opinions: possibly contributing to a party loss, or maybe even being kicked out of caucus.

Re: Oosterhoff, there is an alternative, they can stay home.

[1overcosc]

Remember that Oosterhoff is 19, and homeschooled to boot. It's quite likely the "radicalness" of his opinions stems from being young and sensational. His views may very well moderate as he gets older.

(As a personal example, I was a pretty hardcore socialist when I was 19 and that faded when I was in my early 20s).

[Loco101]

Don't forget that the people who voted for Oosterhoff also voted in Tim Hudak. Enough said!

[eternallyme]

Originally Posted by Loco101

Don't forget that the people who voted for Oosterhoff also voted in Tim Hudak. Enough said!

Oosterhoff greatly built on the margins of Hudak though - turned a 15 point win into a 35 point win.

[eternallyme]

Even after all the promises and policy announcements, polls aren't budging. The writing may be on the wall...

http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/2...ace-june-2017/

Liberals would finish as the third party, barely holding on to party status, while Wynne's approval is 15%.

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by eternallyme

Even after all the promises and policy announcements, polls aren't budging. The writing may be on the wall...

http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/2...ace-june-2017/

Liberals would finish as the third party, barely holding on to party status, while Wynne's approval is 15%.

I wouldn't really expect much movement in the polls at this point. The only vocal people seem to be the strong PC supporters. There are still many things the current Liberal government will be delivering before the next election. Raising the minimum wage is very popular and has the potential to take a lot of support from the NDP. I'd say a fair amount of both NDP and PC support in polls is soft. And I'm pretty sure that a lot of the undecided people would vote Liberal if the campaign goes well.

PC leader Patrick Brown is still very unknown and still has absolutely no platform after two years as leader. That is a fact and even PC supporters don't deny it. Just look at the party's website. Wynne is one of the best campaigners I've ever seen for a politician. She was supposed to have lost badly last time and defied the odds. Not saying that the Wynne Liberals will win again but she and the Ontario Liberal Party should never be underestimated. Ontario now high the highest rate of economic growth of any province and a balanced budget. The PCs now only have limited things that they can really complain about. They will likely avoid social issues and will probably have to focus on accountability issues. The Liberals really want to pull the PCs into a trap like they did in the last few elections. The PCs focus right now is about making life "more affordable" for Ontarians. They complain a lot about hydro rates and house prices but have no ideas or plans of their own. The main thing hurting the Liberals is that they have been in power since 2003.

It amazes me how many Ontarians out there, especially seniors, still think that Ontario as a whole is going through tough times, unemployment is high, taxes are higher here than most other provinces when in fact none of that is true. Reality: Ontario economy is the fastest growing of any province in Canada. Income tax rates are among the lowest. Unemployment rate is 5.8%, which is very low by historical standards.

[HillStreetBlues]

I find the disconnect between the economic indicators and what people seem to be "feeling" to be interesting, too. My view on it is that the economy is doing great, so why is the provincial government still running deficits? But no one cares what I think- the majority seem to think things are going poorly, so whoever makes them more scared of the opponent, wins.

I think that the statement "The main thing hurting the Liberals is that they have been in power since 2003" is exactly right. It will be an uphill battle for the, they may have reached their expiration date, but they still could pull it off. The $15 minimum wage is good politics (I happen to think it's probably good policy, too), and outflanking the NDP on the left has worked for several Liberal campaigns lately, including here in Ontario.

[Loco101]

I have to agree that a lot of the next campaign will be about who is less scary. Patrick Brown is very unknown and unclear. He finally ran some ads trying to make himself seem socially liberal and friendly. The problems for him is that he has a far-right past record on social issues, many of his MPPs are on the far-right socially and a number of the nominated candidates don't fit in with the social policies Brown says he now believes in.

[eternallyme]

I don't know any politician, anywhere in the world, who recovered from approval ratings below 20% to get elected. Even Dalton McGuinty when he resigned was in the mid-20s.

[eternallyme]

http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/2...nto-june-2017/

This is ugly for the Liberals. Even with all the spending announcements and policies, they have lost the lead again in Toronto. It seems the hydro "cuts", minimum wage, housing policy and new spending have done nothing to turn them around.

If they are trailing in Toronto, they have zero chance of re-election, and would likely not even be the Official Opposition, as they are likely in the toilet in terms of support in rural Ontario.

[Loco101]

It is really bad for the Liberals right now but an election campaign can change things. What will happen to NDP support? Do any of the three parties really have any solid support? The PCs don't have a platform. It's hard to criticize the PC's positions on issues when they don't have any! Don't forget how Tim Hudak sunk his party when he released the PC platform in the middle of the last two elections.

I'm waiting to see how much the hydro savings will be. If the rates don't end up going down as much as the Wynne government promised then the Liberals will be in huge trouble.

[1overcosc]

Originally Posted by Loco101

I'm waiting to see how much the hydro savings will be. If the rates don't end up going down as much as the Wynne government promised then the Liberals will be in huge trouble.

Must be bad news for the Libbies then; hydro rates have already gone down and you apparently didn't notice. They were reduced by around 10% on May 1st, 2017. Everyone should have gotten a bill reflecting those lower rates by now.

[kwoldtimer]

I never take anything for granted in politics but, at the moment, it would take a miracle campaign, including a seriously bad Conservative campaign, for the Liberals to win the next election, imo. The new Patrick Brown "touch feely" commercials are striking the right note in soothing public perceptions at this early stage. If the party can put together a credible platform and keep the wingnut brigade muzzled (not easy), then it is their's for the taking, istm.

[1overcosc]

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

I never take anything for granted in politics but, at the moment, it would take a miracle campaign, including a seriously bad Conservative campaign, for the Liberals to win the next election, imo. The new Patrick Brown "touch feely" commercials are striking the right note in soothing public perceptions at this early stage. If the party can put together a credible platform and keep the wingnut brigade muzzled (not easy), then it is their's for the taking, istm.

Neither of those tasks are easy, as you pointed out.

The best platform for the PCs to run on would be a rather empty one. Not full of anything big. I think people could come around to a platform like this (I could see many being tired of big action governments given how policy-heavy Wynne has been), and with fewer things on the agenda, there's less for the party to have internal fights over.

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

Must be bad news for the Libbies then; hydro rates have already gone down and you apparently didn't notice. They were reduced by around 10% on May 1st, 2017. Everyone should have gotten a bill reflecting those lower rates by now.

I heat with hydro so my bills always go down quite a bit come May.

[SteelTown]

Here in Hamilton hydro bills used to be due every two months. Now there will be a hydro bill every month. So a lot of people are ticked off, thinking it's Wynne's way of reducing the hydro cost by splitting it every month instead.

So whatever Wynne did to reduce the hydro rates, people aren't noticing it, they just see more bills collecting in the mailbox. Bad planning.

[Loco101]

New Innovative Research telephone poll out:

http://innovativeresearch.ca/pcs-ahe...th-to-victory/

Decided voters:

PC - 39%

Lib - 35%

NDP - 20%



Best Premier

Patrick Brown - 23%

Andrea Horwath - 18%

Kathleen Wynne - 15%

[toaster]

Recommendation for 2 new ridings in Ontario's North. One majority Indigenous and one majority Francophone. Timmins becomes its own riding. Still waiting on the final recommendation.

[vid]

People in Thunder Bay are so racist that I've seen several of them argue that we should follow the principles of "representation by population" even though it means losing a third of this region's seats.