Should Canada Be Preparing for a Destabilized USA?

[Acajack]

It has never been easier for the rich to move their wealth and themselves to places where they have no risk of being "eaten". There is no shortage of countries like this.

And this brings me to a question I've been wondering about for several decades: how long before we start seeing heightened tensions between the mainstream western countries and the small tax haven countries? At some point something's gotta give.

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by Acajack

It has never been easier for the rich to move their wealth and themselves to places where they have no risk of being "eaten". There is no shortage of countries like this.

And this brings me to a question I've been wondering about for several decades: how long before we start seeing heightened tensions between the mainstream western countries and the small tax haven countries? At some point something's gotta give.

Hasn't the OECD been harping on/chipping away at tax havens for years now?

[geotag277]

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

Here's one that I thought would be allowed to fade away - an executive order was issued today to establish a committee chaired by the VP to investigate, among other things, "voter fraud". One expects that opponents will have conniptions over the perceived threat to the right to vote. The naming of Kris Kobach (!) as vice-chair of the committee will probably add apoplexy to the conniptions.

The reports I've seen don't indicate when the committee is expected to report its findings.

The whole voter id controversy in the United States just seems so absurd. Here is the most powerful country in the world, a shining beacon of democracy, yet they can't figure out how to do a national voter id that allows all citizens the right to ensure the integrity of their elections? Mexico, India, and several others have had this figured out for a while.

Regarding voter fraud, I've often wondered how it is possible to know the extent of it, without studying it? Of course there has been studies regarding previous allegations turning up very little evidence, but it seems to me that is an imperfect approach. To really study it, it seems it should be looked at systematically, and in such a system voter id would certainly help.

Anecdotally at one point I had a California driver's license due to frequent travel, and from what I could gather at the time, that is all I would have needed to register to vote. Unless California was looking at this systematically, how could anyone know the extent of fraudulent votes? Again, looking only at past allegations seems a rather imperfect approach.

Voter id done correctly would remove a lot of the doubt regarding the system, and it speaks to the highly dysfunctional nature of United States politics that voter id is being used as a tool/wedge issue by both parties for political purposes.

Just what a gong show.

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by geotag277

The whole voter id controversy in the United States just seems so absurd. Here is the largest country in the world, a shining beacon of democracy, yet they can't figure out how to do a national voter id that allows all citizens the right to ensure the integrity of their elections? Mexico, India, and several others have had this figured out for a while.

Regarding voter fraud, I've often wondered how it is possible to know the extent of it, without studying it? Of course there has been studies regarding previous allegations turning up very little evidence, but it seems to me that is an imperfect approach. To really study it, it seems it should be looked at systematically, and in such a system voter id would certainly help.

Anecdotally at one point I had a California driver's license due to frequent travel, and from what I could gather at the time, that is all I would have needed to register to vote. Unless California was looking at this systematically, how could anyone know the extent of fraudulent votes? Again, looking only at past allegations seems a rather imperfect approach.

Voter id done correctly would remove a lot of the doubt regarding the system, and it speaks to the highly dysfunctional nature of United States politics that voter id is being used as a tool/wedge issue by both parties for political purposes.

Just what a gong show.

What you say is true, but assumes that the goal is to have a valid, universal voting system. Many in the States believe that the goal (supported by considerable evidence) is to suppress the votes of the poor, blacks, etc. As you say, it is a wedge issue used by both sides.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

Hasn't the OECD been harping on/chipping away at tax havens for years now?

I know but not sure it has been very effective.

[niwell]

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

What you say is true, but assumes that the goal is to have a valid, universal voting system. Many in the States believe that the goal (supported by considerable evidence) is to suppress the votes of the poor, blacks, etc. As you say, it is a wedge issue used by both sides.

I was baffled years ago after the Bush election when I found out that the U.S. did not have standardized voting for Federal elections. Then even more baffled when I discovered how the electoral college works after reading into it. States rights is a wonderful thing! (Sometimes it actually is).

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by niwell

I was baffled years ago after the Bush election when I found out that the U.S. did not have standardized voting for Federal elections. Then even more baffled when I discovered how the electoral college works after reading into it. States rights is a wonderful thing! (Sometimes it actually is).

The joys of a federal republican democracy designed in the 18th century.

[1overcosc]

Originally Posted by Acajack

It has never been easier for the rich to move their wealth and themselves to places where they have no risk of being "eaten". There is no shortage of countries like this.

And this brings me to a question I've been wondering about for several decades: how long before we start seeing heightened tensions between the mainstream western countries and the small tax haven countries? At some point something's gotta give.

I wonder about this too. Many of the small tax haven countries are also more or less completely defenseless. It would be trivial for France to invade Monaco or for Austria to invade Liechtenstein. So if push comes to shove.. the 'mainstream western countries' as you call them, could solve the problem pretty quickly.

[someone123]

Originally Posted by Acajack

It has never been easier for the rich to move their wealth and themselves to places where they have no risk of being "eaten". There is no shortage of countries like this.

I wonder how true this really is. I'm sure Elon Musk has the means to stockpile lots of gold bars and cans of beans on a tropical island somewhere. But most wealth is tied up in currencies and financial instruments that are controlled by major governments, or property physically located in those countries. A lot of financial activity is more traceable now than it used to be. Then on top of this the major countries are able to track people down and arrest them around the world or do various unpleasant things to smaller countries.

There are plenty of cases of billionaires who ran afoul of some government, had their assets seized, and ended up in prison or worse.

I suspect the bigger factor is that a lot of Western governments simply haven't been all that interested in changing the status quo because they have been most strongly influenced by the rich people enjoying the tax havens, and capitalists who benefit from large corporate profits. This could change.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by someone123

I wonder how true this really is. I'm sure Elon Musk has the means to stockpile lots of gold bars and cans of beans on a tropical island somewhere. But most wealth is tied up in currencies and financial instruments that are controlled by major governments, or property physically located in those countries. A lot of financial activity is more traceable now than it used to be. Then on top of this the major countries are able to track people down and arrest them around the world or do various unpleasant things to smaller countries.

There are plenty of cases of billionaires who ran afoul of some government, had their assets seized, and ended up in prison or worse.

I suspect the bigger factor is that a lot of Western governments simply haven't been all that interested in changing the status quo because they have been most strongly influenced by the rich people enjoying the tax havens, and capitalists who benefit from large corporate profits. This could change.

By and large it's true they have not used the strongarm very much against these guys.


There are several reasons for this and the one you give is a good one. Governments are full of élite people and at the very least our politicos will have lots of important friends with one foot in the big country and one foot in the tax haven. When it isn't the politicos themselves who are like this.

Another thing is that the cash flow situation in the bigger countries has tended to be pretty good and manageable. When times are good there is less urgency to pull the blanket to your side or go rummaging in drawers for spare change.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

What you say is true, but assumes that the goal is to have a valid, universal voting system. Many in the States believe that the goal (supported by considerable evidence) is to suppress the votes of the poor, blacks, etc. As you say, it is a wedge issue used by both sides.

If blacks tend to happen to be ID-less way more often than whites, it somehow makes it not okay anymore to be in favor of mandatory ID to vote...?

The way I see it, wanting to combat vote fraud is perfectly color-blind. I don't even care about demographics. If you can't prove your identity, you shouldn't be able to vote. One of my good friends voted twice in a federal election in Sherbrooke many years ago using his roommate's voter card (the roommate was about to throw it away)... would you seriously demand to know the color of his skin before you can decide whether what he did is, in your opinion, right or wrong?

[someone123]

Originally Posted by Acajack

There are several reasons for this and the one you give is a good one. Governments are full of élite people and at the very least our politicos will have lots of important friends with one foot in the big country and one foot in the tax haven. When it isn't the politicos themselves who are like this.

It's not a person but the Apple foreign profit repatriation story is interesting. Apple has over $200B in cash being held overseas that they have not paid US taxes on. Generally speaking when the media covers this subject or when politicians or people at Apple talk about it, they mention two possibilities. Either the US offers some kind of tax holiday (the last one in 2004 taxed profits at 5.25%), or the money will stay abroad indefinitely.

In reality the US has all sorts of other options but they are not on the table, so it's a debate over how low corporate taxes should go. I bet a lot of US politicians are perfectly OK with this.

Incidentally a couple years ago Apple had to settle a class action lawsuit because they along with a bunch of other tech companies had secretly agreed not to poach employees from each other during a period of many years, in order to keep labour costs down. They were only caught because emails from Steve Jobs et al. were leaked. The settlement for this amounts to about 0.1% of their offshore cash.

[1overcosc]

Originally Posted by lio45

If blacks tend to happen to be ID-less way more often than whites, it somehow makes it not okay anymore to be in favor of mandatory ID to vote...?

The way I see it, wanting to combat vote fraud is perfectly color-blind. I don't even care about demographics. If you can't prove your identity, you shouldn't be able to vote. One of my good friends voted twice in a federal election in Sherbrooke many years ago using his roommate's voter card (the roommate was about to throw it away)... would you seriously demand to know the color of his skin before you can decide whether what he did is, in your opinion, right or wrong?

One thing that makes this whole thing suspect...

Isn't the obvious solution to ensure that every citizen has photo ID? Issue a national ID card to every American citizen. Then boom, this whole problem goes away. Shouldn't the Republicans insisting on complaining about voter fraud be putting this proposal to the front of the list of proposed solutions?

Unless of course, they WANT certain demographics to be less likely to be able to vote.

[Xelebes]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

One thing that makes this whole thing suspect...

Isn't the obvious solution to ensure that every citizen has photo ID? Issue a national ID card to every American citizen. Then boom, this whole problem goes away. Shouldn't the Republicans insisting on complaining about voter fraud be putting this proposal to the front of the list of proposed solutions?

Unless of course, they WANT certain demographics to be less likely to be able to vote.

Correct. It is all about barriers to vote. There is a few important events in the British Empire where it has been attempted and it having results gone awry. Most spectacular incident leading to the Peasant's Revolt in the 14th century.

[1overcosc]

On a tangent that's one of the things I find fascinating about Britain.. their entire political system evolved basically on precedent and customs. A stark contrast to the US where the system is codified to great detail in their constitution.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

On a tangent that's one of the things I find fascinating about Britain.. their entire political system evolved basically on precedent and customs. A stark contrast to the US where the system is codified to great detail in their constitution.

Yeah and look at how well that's worked out for the USA. Gun laws designed for an upstart agrarian nation rigidly misapplied to the modern era. The British system is far superior.

[fenwick16]

Originally Posted by whatnext

Yeah and look at how well that's worked out for the USA. Gun laws designed for an upstart agrarian nation rigidly misapplied to the modern era. The British system is far superior.

As is the Canadian system (i.e. better than the USA), although I guess that the Canadian and British systems are closely related.

I am so happy to be a Canadian considering the state of the USA with Trump as president, a polarized political system, abundant guns, wars, poor health care system, too many brain-washed citizens (mostly Republicans , although the Democrats have their issues also) and bigotry. In any case, the USA has some great cities and abundant scenic locations.

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by lio45

If blacks tend to happen to be ID-less way more often than whites, it somehow makes it not okay anymore to be in favor of mandatory ID to vote...?

The way I see it, wanting to combat vote fraud is perfectly color-blind. I don't even care about demographics. If you can't prove your identity, you shouldn't be able to vote. One of my good friends voted twice in a federal election in Sherbrooke many years ago using his roommate's voter card (the roommate was about to throw it away)... would you seriously demand to know the color of his skin before you can decide whether what he did is, in your opinion, right or wrong?

Mandatory voter ID seems fine to me, but what is always missing from the debate in the USA, afaik, is the part about the government making sure that there is a free, universally accessible voter ID. Therein lies the rub, istm, especially given the country's long history of voter suppression.

[kwoldtimer]

So in today's "Daily Bizarre", Trump has reportedly said that (now) ex-FBI Director Comey "better hope that there are no tapes" wrt his alleged pledge of loyalty to the President. This in response to reports of unnamed sources close to Comey that contradicted Trumps version of events leading up to the firing.
Folks my age will be forgiven for having an immediate flashback to the days of Watergate and the Nixon tapes.

Just four months ago, I would have been 50/50 on Trump winning a second term. Today, i find it increasingly difficult to believe that he will be allowed to complete even this term. At the moment, the chaos seems unrelenting and the forces that oppose him seem to be gaining the upper hand.

[WhipperSnapper]

Trump is safe providing the Republican party cracks don't fracture.