HomeDiagramsDatabaseMapsForum
     
Go Back   SkyscraperPage Forum > Discussion Forums > City Discussions

Reply

 
Thread Tools Display Modes
     
     
     
     
  #1  
Old Posted Jul 21, 2019, 11:03 PM
M II A II R II K's Avatar
M II A II R II K M II A II R II K is online now
Registered User
 
Join Date: Aug 2002
Location: Toronto
Posts: 47,288
The Future of the City Is Childless

The Future of the City Is Childless


JUL 18, 2019

By Derek Thompson

Read More: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/ar...n-gone/594133/

Quote:
.....

We are supposedly living in the golden age of the American metropolis, with the same story playing out across the country. Dirty and violent downtowns typified by the “mean streets” of the 1970s became clean and safe in the 1990s. Young college graduates flocked to brunchable neighborhoods in the 2000s, and rich companies followed them with downtown offices.

- New York is the poster child of this urban renaissance. But as the city has attracted more wealth, housing prices have soared alongside the skyscrapers, and young families have found staying put with school-age children more difficult. Since 2011, the number of babies born in New York has declined 9 percent in the five boroughs and 15 percent in Manhattan. (At this rate, Manhattan’s infant population will halve in 30 years.) — In that same period, the net number of New York residents leaving the city has more than doubled. There are many reasons New York might be shrinking, but most of them come down to the same unavoidable fact: Raising a family in the city is just too hard. And the same could be said of pretty much every other dense and expensive urban area in the country.

- In high-density cities like San Francisco, Seattle, and Washington, D.C., no group is growing faster than rich college-educated whites without children, according to Census analysis by the economist Jed Kolko. By contrast, families with children older than 6 are in outright decline in these places. In the biggest picture, it turns out that America’s urban rebirth is missing a key element: births. — Cities were once a place for families of all classes. The “basic custom” of the American city, wrote the urbanist Sam Bass Warner, was a “commitment to familialism.” Today’s cities, however, are decidedly not for children, or for families who want children. As the sociologists Richard Lloyd and Terry Nichols Clark put it, they are “entertainment machines” for the young, rich, and mostly childless.

- And this development has crucial implications not only for the future of American cities, but also for the future of the U.S. economy and American politics. The counties that make up Los Angeles, Chicago, New York City, and Philadelphia shed a combined 2 million domestic residents from 2010 to 2018. For many years, these cities’ main source of population growth hasn’t been babies or even college graduates; it’s been immigrants. But like an archipelago of Ellis Islands, Manhattan and other wealthy downtown areas have become mere gateways into America and the labor force. — But if big cities are shedding people, they’re growing in other ways—specifically, in wealth and workism. The richest 25 metro areas now account for more than half of the U.S. economy, according to an Axios analysis of government data.

- Rich cities particularly specialize in the new tech economy: Just five counties account for about half of the nation’s internet and web-portal jobs. Toiling to build this metropolitan wealth are young college graduates, many of them childless or without school-age children; that is, workers who are sufficiently unattached to family life that they can pour their lives into their careers. — Cities have effectively traded away their children, swapping capital for kids. College graduates descend into cities, inhale fast-casual meals, emit the fumes of overwork, get washed, and bounce to smaller cities or the suburbs by the time their kids are old enough to spell. It’s a coast-to-coast trend: In Washington, D.C., the overall population has grown more than 20 percent this century, but the number of children under the age of 18 has declined. Meanwhile, San Francisco has the lowest share of children of any of the largest 100 cities in the U.S.

- The modern American city is not a microcosm of life but a microslice of it. It’s becoming an Epcot theme park for childless affluence, where the rich can act like kids without having to actually see any. — It’s incoherent for Americans to talk about equality of opportunity in an economy where high-paying work is concentrated in places, such as San Francisco and Manhattan, where the median home value is at least six times the national average. Widespread economic growth will become ever more difficult in an age of winner-take-all cities. — But the economic consequences of the childless city go deeper. For example, the high cost of urban living may be discouraging some couples from having as many children as they’d prefer. That would mean American cities aren’t just expelling school-age children; they’re actively discouraging them from being born in the first place.

- In 2018, the U.S. fertility rate fell to its all-time low. Without sustained immigration, the U.S. could shrink for the first time since World World I. Underpopulation would be a profound economic problem it’s associated with less dynamism and less productivity and a fiscal catastrophe. The erosion of the working population would threaten one great reward of liberal societies, which is a tax-funded welfare and eldercare state to protect individuals from illness, age, and bad luck. — Finally, childless cities exacerbate the rural-urban conundrum that has come to define American politics. With its rich blue cities and red rural plains, the U.S. has an economy biased toward high-density areas but an electoral system biased toward low-density areas. The discrepancy has the trappings of a constitutional crisis.

- Smaller cities and suburbs might simply be a better place to live and not just for the obvious reason that they’re more cost-friendly for the non-rich. Perhaps parents are clustering in suburbs today for the same reason that companies cluster in rich cities: Doing so is more efficient. Suburbs have more “schools, parks, stroller-friendly areas, restaurants with high chairs, babysitters, [and] large parking spaces for SUV’s,” wrote Conor Sen, an investor and columnist for Bloomberg. It’s akin to a division of labor: America’s rich cities specialize in the young, rich, and childless; America’s suburbs specialize in parents. The childless city may be inescapable.

- In two weeks, as it happens, I’m moving from New York City to Washington, D.C., into a building that was once a women’s hospital. For 150 years, since its founding in 1866, the facility specialized in delivering babies; it saw more than 250,000 new souls brought into the world, including Duke Ellington and Al Gore. The building used to be a piece of history; today it’s a demographic metaphor for the future of the American city: They gutted the maternity ward and put up a condo.

.....



__________________
ASDFGHJK
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #2  
Old Posted Jul 21, 2019, 11:18 PM
pdxtex's Avatar
pdxtex pdxtex is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: Portland, OR
Posts: 2,515
the function of cities hasnt changed, our material expectations have. 80 years ago, a family living in manhattan probably lived in a 1 bedroom apartment, 2 if they were better off. my mom was raised in an apartment with my aunt. my grandma and grandpa never lived in anything else. what has changed is our income and space expectations. who is driving this urban renaissance? white suburbanites accustomed to suburban proportions. the expectation that a single person must have at the very minimum a one bedroom apartment is common. a studio is for poor hipsters, not successful ones...theres plenty of room to raise kids in a city, we just became spoiled.
__________________
Portland!! Where young people go to retire.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #3  
Old Posted Jul 21, 2019, 11:39 PM
Steely Dan's Avatar
Steely Dan Steely Dan is online now
devout Pizzatarian
 
Join Date: Jul 2001
Location: Lincoln Square, Chicago
Posts: 21,260
In my little anecdotal corner of family-friendly Chicago, our neighborhood K-8 CPS school just started a $25M expansion because enrollment is bursting at the seams.

My daughter starts kindergarten there next year. Yay, were part of the "problem"!
__________________
He has to go.

Last edited by Steely Dan; Jul 22, 2019 at 1:42 PM.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #4  
Old Posted Jul 22, 2019, 3:57 AM
ThePhun1 ThePhun1 is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2014
Location: Houston/Galveston
Posts: 1,717
Well, at least my city/area has a mix of everything
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #5  
Old Posted Jul 22, 2019, 12:04 PM
dc_denizen's Avatar
dc_denizen dc_denizen is offline
Selfie-stick vendor
 
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: New York Suburbs
Posts: 6,487
This phenomenon seems specific to dc and sf.

Dc doesn’t have an adequate public school system while sf is too expensive

Portland is full of kids, Brooklyn as well. Public schools are fine.

* White upper class kids is what the article is about, of course.
__________________
Joined the bus on the 33rd seat
By the doo-doo room with the reek replete
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #6  
Old Posted Jul 22, 2019, 12:40 PM
Crawford Crawford is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Brooklyn, NYC/Polanco, DF
Posts: 18,866
Part of the reason urban births are down is because teen births have plummeted. Also, U.S. black and Latino birthrates are now basically the same as white/Asian birthrates, but the steep decline in black/Latino is overrepresented in urban areas.

Also, birthrates have generally held steady in wealthy neighborhoods. Tribeca has one of the highest birthrates in NYC. So the story of urban birthrate decline is largely a story of black/Latino mothers having fewer children, especially at young ages.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #7  
Old Posted Jul 22, 2019, 2:47 PM
Steely Dan's Avatar
Steely Dan Steely Dan is online now
devout Pizzatarian
 
Join Date: Jul 2001
Location: Lincoln Square, Chicago
Posts: 21,260
Quote:
Originally Posted by Crawford View Post
Also, U.S. black and Latino birthrates are now basically the same as white/Asian birthrates, but the steep decline in black/Latino is overrepresented in urban areas.
this is compounded in cities like chicago where not only are birthrates falling among black families, black families are also just leaving the city altogether in droves due to a variety of push and pull factors.

this is how you can have a situation where earlier this decade CPS closed 50 schools across the south and west sides due to falling enrollment, while our neighborhood CPS school on the north side is embarking an a big expansion because the 100 year old school building can no longer reasonably hold all the kids who live in our neighborhood.

chicago's future is less children overall, but it's certainly not gonna be entirely childless in all areas. not by a long shot.
__________________
He has to go.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #8  
Old Posted Jul 22, 2019, 3:13 PM
eschaton eschaton is online now
Registered User
 
Join Date: Dec 2013
Posts: 2,820
I am interested in when exactly a gentrified urban area "flips" in terms of school enrollment from being non-desirable to desirable.

For example, I've always found it funny Hoboken is still an undesirable place for white yuppies to enroll their kids in school. The city is up to 70% non-Hispanic white and about 9% Asian. Yet the public schools are still majority nonwhite and 47% Latino (the city is only 15% Latino).

At some point it stands to reason that basically all of the poor Latinos and blacks left in Hoboken will have been gentrified out save for those in protected HUD-assisted housing developments. One would presume then white/Asian parents would be more apt to "take a chance" and the demographics would quickly flip, with it becoming a top-performing school district.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #9  
Old Posted Jul 22, 2019, 3:50 PM
Steely Dan's Avatar
Steely Dan Steely Dan is online now
devout Pizzatarian
 
Join Date: Jul 2001
Location: Lincoln Square, Chicago
Posts: 21,260
^ school "flipping" definitely happens in chicago.

our neighborhood school is a textbook example.



here are the 2019 demographics of our school:

white: 56%
latino: 29%
asian: 4%
black: 3%
other: 8%


and here are the 2004 demographics of our school:

white: 18%
latino: 73%
asian: 4%
black: 5%
"other" wasn't a category that was tracked.



our neighborhood has never been remotely close to 73% latino, but 15 years ago the white families in our neighborhood overwhelmingly sent their kids to catholic school.

now, most white families in the neighborhood feel perfectly comfortable sending their kids to the CPS school, hence one of the big reasons why it's bursting at the seams.
__________________
He has to go.

Last edited by Steely Dan; Jul 22, 2019 at 4:54 PM.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #10  
Old Posted Jul 22, 2019, 4:51 PM
Kenmore Kenmore is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
Location: Uptown
Posts: 589
Quote:
Originally Posted by Steely Dan View Post
^ school "flipping" definitely happens in chicago.

our neighborhood school is a textbook example.



here'e the 2019 demographics of our school:

white: 56%
latino: 29%
asian: 4%
black: 3%
other: 8%


and here are the 2004 demographics of our school:

white: 18%
latino: 73%
asian: 4%
black: 5%
"other" wasn't a category that was tracked.



our neighborhood has never been remotely close to 73% latino, but 15 years ago the white families in our neighborhood overwhelmingly sent their kids to catholic school.

now, most white families in the neighborhood feel perfectly comfortable sending their kids to the CPS school, hence one of the big reasons why it's bursting at the seams.
similar transition occurring in earlier phase at Peirce
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #11  
Old Posted Jul 22, 2019, 4:00 PM
Crawford Crawford is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Brooklyn, NYC/Polanco, DF
Posts: 18,866
Quote:
Originally Posted by eschaton View Post
I am interested in when exactly a gentrified urban area "flips" in terms of school enrollment from being non-desirable to desirable.

For example, I've always found it funny Hoboken is still an undesirable place for white yuppies to enroll their kids in school. The city is up to 70% non-Hispanic white and about 9% Asian. Yet the public schools are still majority nonwhite and 47% Latino (the city is only 15% Latino).
I think Hoboken is a bit of an outlier. They have a number of heavily white, high-performing charters that are popular among gentrifying households (which would definitely not be a thing for the same demographic in, say, Brooklyn).

The Hoboken projects, like NYC projects, aren't going anywhere, so I think the town will always retain some lower income black/Latino households in its public schools.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #12  
Old Posted Jul 22, 2019, 12:48 PM
Crawford Crawford is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Brooklyn, NYC/Polanco, DF
Posts: 18,866
Actually, I stand corrected - in NYC, the Hispanic and African American birthrates are now well below that of whites and Asians, when years ago they were much higher. And the NYC teen birthrate has plummeted nearly 60% in the past decade, probably in part because Bloomberg mandated sex ed in schools. Also, abortions have plummeted.

https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/doh/down...vs/2017sum.pdf
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #13  
Old Posted Jul 22, 2019, 2:04 PM
The North One's Avatar
The North One The North One is online now
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2009
Posts: 3,910
This sounds dumb, a functional city cannot be and never will be childless.

Quote:
Smaller cities and suburbs might simply be a better place to live and not just for the obvious reason that they’re more cost-friendly for the non-rich.
LOL no, just no.
__________________
Spawn of questionable parentage!
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #14  
Old Posted Jul 22, 2019, 6:29 PM
Sun Belt Sun Belt is offline
SUSPENDED
 
Join Date: Sep 2017
Location: The Envy of the World
Posts: 4,522
Here's how Sun Belt sees it:

1] Cities are becoming more child-less than they have in the past
Why?
A] Cities are becoming more expensive.
B] Cities are growing older and less diverse.
C] Some parts of some cities are emptying out and therefore the overall student population appears to be dropping, despite some other successful/desireable outliers -- [Steely's situation].

2] Today's young people put off marriage and have kids much later into their mid 30s.
A] They got a whole lot of F'n to do in their 20s.
B] They want to be able to postpone adulthood, drink beer, play corn hole at the local watering hole until 2 am.
C] They have a huge debt burden and can't afford kids, even though they love to point out how successful they are.
D] Some don't want kids -- to SAVE THE EARTH!!! Kids breathe oxygen and produce carbon while consuming natural resources.

3] Those that want kids, have already grown up and left for the suburbs in their mid 20s, where life is more affordable.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #15  
Old Posted Jul 22, 2019, 6:47 PM
eschaton eschaton is online now
Registered User
 
Join Date: Dec 2013
Posts: 2,820
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sun Belt View Post
Here's how Sun Belt sees it:

1] Cities are becoming more child-less than they have in the past
Why?
A] Cities are becoming more expensive.
B] Cities are growing older and less diverse.
C] Some parts of some cities are emptying out and therefore the overall student population appears to be dropping, despite some other successful/desirable outliers -- [Steely's situation].
One way to look at things is this: Kids are roommates who can't chip in for rent. I mean seriously - all things considered, having kids ups your need for space, ups your need for bedrooms, and increases other costs (particularly related to day care). As a result of this, you have higher expenses than childless people do at the same income level as yourself, all other things considered. Thus in order to find a neighborhood which meets your price point, you need to move somewhere else - somewhere where you are competing with childless people who make less money than you do for housing units. Most people are unwilling once they have kids to compromise by moving to the "bleeding edge of gentrification" - the areas which are on their way, but haven't quite arrived. So instead you compromise on neighborhoods which are less desirable in other ways (worse transit access, less walkable amenities, etc).


Quote:
Originally Posted by Sun Belt View Post
A] They got a whole lot of F'n to do in their 20s.
This one is almost certainly untrue. Young people today are having a lot less sex than they were 20 years ago. Young people now spend a lot more time not in any relationship as opposed to in long-term relationships. And despite what might be thought, overall single people have a lot less sex than those who are committed (at least in the early phases - after 10 years of marriage it's probably about even - heh).
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #16  
Old Posted Jul 22, 2019, 7:00 PM
Sun Belt Sun Belt is offline
SUSPENDED
 
Join Date: Sep 2017
Location: The Envy of the World
Posts: 4,522
Quote:
Originally Posted by eschaton View Post
This one is almost certainly untrue. Young people today are having a lot less sex than they were 20 years ago. Young people now spend a lot more time not in any relationship as opposed to in long-term relationships. And despite what might be thought, overall single people have a lot less sex than those who are committed (at least in the early phases - after 10 years of marriage it's probably about even - heh).
Maybe. This might enter a whole different discussion though -- Who actually really knows? The data all comes from questionnaires. Young people today might be lying better than the previous generation. The stigma today [from HIV schooling of the 1990s and beyond] is that no, you absolutely do not want to have multiple sexual partners before marriage.

Therefore, when asked, what do you say? -- I don't want to be a "slut", so I'll underreport.

I don't think young people have changed one bit, in America.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #17  
Old Posted Jul 22, 2019, 8:03 PM
sopas ej's Avatar
sopas ej sopas ej is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: South Pasadena, California
Posts: 3,970
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sun Belt View Post
Maybe. This might enter a whole different discussion though -- Who actually really knows? The data all comes from questionnaires. Young people today might be lying better than the previous generation. The stigma today [from HIV schooling of the 1990s and beyond] is that no, you absolutely do not want to have multiple sexual partners before marriage.

Therefore, when asked, what do you say? -- I don't want to be a "slut", so I'll underreport.

I don't think young people have changed one bit, in America.
With PrEP and HPV vaccines, is this even an issue with younger people? I would think younger people wouldn't be lying about their sexual habits on anonymous questionnaires, unless they were raised conservatively/live in conservative areas where people gave a shit about others' sexual habits.
__________________
"If the climate were a bank, the U.S. would have already saved it."

---Hugo Chávez
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #18  
Old Posted Jul 22, 2019, 8:15 PM
JManc's Avatar
JManc JManc is offline
Moderator
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Houston
Posts: 25,212
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sun Belt View Post
The stigma today [from HIV schooling of the 1990s and beyond] is that no, you absolutely do not want to have multiple sexual partners before marriage.
Huh? People were/are more conscious about HIV but there is no stigma about sexuality or multiple partners before marriage but as eschaton mentioned, overall interest seems to be down.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #19  
Old Posted Jul 22, 2019, 9:30 PM
Sun Belt Sun Belt is offline
SUSPENDED
 
Join Date: Sep 2017
Location: The Envy of the World
Posts: 4,522
Quote:
Originally Posted by JManc View Post
Huh? People were/are more conscious about HIV but there is no stigma about sexuality or multiple partners before marriage but as eschaton mentioned, overall interest seems to be down.
Wait, really?

I grew up in the hyper HIV atmosphere. I'm pretty sure that differed from the pre HIV era.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #20  
Old Posted Jul 22, 2019, 11:58 PM
Pedestrian's Avatar
Pedestrian Pedestrian is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Dec 2016
Location: San Francisco
Posts: 11,169
Quote:
Originally Posted by JManc View Post
Huh? People were/are more conscious about HIV but there is no stigma about sexuality or multiple partners before marriage but as eschaton mentioned, overall interest seems to be down.
PreP and the existence of treatments that have turned AIDS into a chronic disease that does not shorten your lifespan has really changed things. I can't speak to the interest of 20-somethings but for those with an interest, there's not much deterrence from worrying about HIV any more.
Reply With Quote
     
     
This discussion thread continues

Use the page links to the lower-right to go to the next page for additional posts

Reply

Go Back   SkyscraperPage Forum > Discussion Forums > City Discussions
Forum Jump


Thread Tools
Display Modes

Forum Jump


All times are GMT. The time now is 5:04 PM.

     

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.7
Copyright ©2000 - 2019, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.