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  #1  
Old Posted Jan 8, 2017, 5:39 AM
Docere Docere is offline
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Which of the big 3 cities is the most conservative: NYC, LA or Chicago?

Probably not L.A., even though it would have been the most Republican/conservative by far back in the days when it was dominated by white Protestant Midwesterners.

Chicago is probably the most Democratic of the three, but it's largely machine Democrat rather than liberal Democrat.

NYC has its "liberal elite" swath of Manhattan and gentrified Brooklyn and the city is stereotypically ultra-liberal (Ted Cruz lashed out against "New York values" in the GOP primary; Newt Gingrich in the 1990s called New York an enclave of out of touch liberal/elitist values). But it probably has bigger swaths of political conservatism than Chicago does.
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  #2  
Old Posted Jan 8, 2017, 3:47 PM
Leo the Dog Leo the Dog is offline
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Probably not L.A., even though it would have been the most Republican/conservative by far back in the days when it was dominated by white Protestant Midwesterners.

Chicago is probably the most Democratic of the three, but it's largely machine Democrat rather than liberal Democrat.

NYC has its "liberal elite" swath of Manhattan and gentrified Brooklyn and the city is stereotypically ultra-liberal (Ted Cruz lashed out against "New York values" in the GOP primary; Newt Gingrich in the 1990s called New York an enclave of out of touch liberal/elitist values). But it probably has bigger swaths of political conservatism than Chicago does.
My first thought was Chicago(land). It's an urban bubble surrounded by rural counties and states for hundreds of miles in each direction.

But then you have LA, which has the IE and OC that are definitely more conservative than Central LA.

NY is so massive that it contains large populations of everything, so maybe NY...
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  #3  
Old Posted Jan 8, 2017, 3:50 PM
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It's either between NY and Chicago if I were to speculate. I'd say Chicago. No way for LA given the ethnic makeup.

As a % or ratio per 100,000, my money's on Chicago.

I think if we factor in the metro area, Chicago would be #1 in regards to the OP question. Even basing it on election data per county. Not to say that the NY metro doesn't have its conservative pockets, because it does. Actually, if anything, this election was an eye opener.
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  #4  
Old Posted Jan 8, 2017, 4:00 PM
Leo the Dog Leo the Dog is offline
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Even basing it on election data per county. Not to say that the NY metro doesn't have its conservative pockets, because it does. Actually, if anything, this election was an eye opener.
Yeah but which election? I would think that local elections would be a better indicator than presidential elections. Maybe state representatives? Mayors? City council members?
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  #5  
Old Posted Jan 8, 2017, 4:01 PM
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Yeah but which election? I would think that local elections would be a better indicator than presidential elections. Maybe state representatives? Mayors? City council members?
Presidential based on the turnout for a guestimate on the OP's question. I think if we were to look at mid terms, it might change the ranking per say.

But local as well, although I'd imagine the presidential would see higher turnout. Local can vary as it's not so much ego based. Take NJ, we elected Christie, in a democratic fortress.
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  #6  
Old Posted Jan 8, 2017, 4:30 PM
jtown,man jtown,man is offline
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Have you seen the voting map for New York vs Chicago?

NYC is more conservative without a doubt.
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  #7  
Old Posted Jan 8, 2017, 4:44 PM
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Are you talking city or metro?

Also, how are you defining conservative?
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  #8  
Old Posted Jan 8, 2017, 4:49 PM
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Originally Posted by jtown,man View Post
Have you seen the voting map for New York vs Chicago?

NYC is more conservative without a doubt.
NYC probably had proportionally more Trump voters, because the Hasidic community generally voted for Trump. LA and Chicago don't really have Hasidic voting blocks.

Not sure this is a proxy for "conservatism"; though, it's just that you have a sizable demographic that votes according to its elders (and they have voted for everything from far Left to far Right candidates). The same Hasidic leaders had their community vote for far Left candidates like DeBlasio, and have generally endorsed Dem candidates for President, including B. Clinton and Carter. But they were mad at Obama re. Israel so went for Trump.

And Trump isn't a Republican or traditional Conservative. I'm not sure this past election is really a good proxy for relative political conservatism.
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  #9  
Old Posted Jan 8, 2017, 5:03 PM
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Originally Posted by Leo the Dog View Post
Yeah but which election? I would think that local elections would be a better indicator than presidential elections. Maybe state representatives? Mayors? City council members?
If local elections, NYC is almost certainly most liberal, Chicago most conservative. NYC is the only place in the U.S. where most housing is non-market, where unions dominate, pre-1990's welfare still exists, where stuff like free pre-K, free college, free public hospitals, etc. are pretty much a local consensus.

If Presidential elections, and going by party only, the reverse could be argued. NYC has the massive Hasidic populations that can go Republican, plus Soviet emigrees vote reflexively Republican, regardless of candidate, and Italian enclaves in the Northeast liked Trump (though don't usually trend so Republican).

Chicago doesn't have these demographics, and is pretty much a solid Dem town, though Dem doesn't mean liberal/progressive, of course (Rahm is almost certainly far to the right of Bloomberg, to say nothing of DeBlasio). I'm not sure a solid Dem white ethnic cop neighborhood in Chicago is more liberal than a Republican leaning equivalent in NYC; it's just a reflection of demographics and local voting cleavages.

And NYC "cop neighborhoods" generally aren't in NYC; as there are no city residency requirements. Employees like teachers, firefighters, etc. are scattered about the region, so you don't have city worker constituency neighborhoods, to the same extent.
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  #10  
Old Posted Jan 8, 2017, 5:04 PM
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If it is by metro area than Chicagoland for sure.

2/3'rds of the people in the Chicagoland area live outside the city borders.

Illinois has a GOP governor. The two other states no way.

For Illinois to get a Republican governor the normal purple collar counties, and suburban Cook Co. have to vote more Red to overcome the City. That's where most of the votes are in the state, in the Burbs.

But as we see in a general federal election Illinois while blue it is not nearly the dark deep blue wall that is California and New York State.
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  #11  
Old Posted Jan 8, 2017, 6:19 PM
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Originally Posted by Crawford View Post
NYC probably had proportionally more Trump voters, because the Hasidic community generally voted for Trump. LA and Chicago don't really have Hasidic voting blocks.

Not sure this is a proxy for "conservatism"; though, it's just that you have a sizable demographic that votes according to its elders (and they have voted for everything from far Left to far Right candidates). The same Hasidic leaders had their community vote for far Left candidates like DeBlasio, and have generally endorsed Dem candidates for President, including B. Clinton and Carter. But they were mad at Obama re. Israel so went for Trump.

And Trump isn't a Republican or traditional Conservative. I'm not sure this past election is really a good proxy for relative political conservatism.
There are definitely Hasidic voting blocks in Chicago.
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  #12  
Old Posted Jan 8, 2017, 6:20 PM
IrishIllini IrishIllini is offline
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Originally Posted by bnk View Post
If it is by metro area than Chicagoland for sure.

2/3'rds of the people in the Chicagoland area live outside the city borders.

Illinois has a GOP governor. The two other states no way.

For Illinois to get a Republican governor the normal purple collar counties, and suburban Cook Co. have to vote more Red to overcome the City. That's where most of the votes are in the state, in the Burbs.

But as we see in a general federal election Illinois while blue it is not nearly the dark deep blue wall that is California and New York State.
This is between cities, not states.

Rauner won because Democrats have literally bankrupted the state. Trump had WAY more support in NYC than Chicago.
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  #13  
Old Posted Jan 8, 2017, 6:47 PM
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On a broader spectrum the 3 cities are more similar than different when it comes the top policies that are determinative of liberal v. conservative, I suppose. I however cannot imagine someone like Rudy Giuliani could ever be mayor of Los Angeles.
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  #14  
Old Posted Jan 8, 2017, 7:20 PM
Crawford Crawford is offline
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Originally Posted by dktshb View Post
On a broader spectrum the 3 cities are more similar than different when it comes the top policies that are determinative of liberal v. conservative, I suppose. I however cannot imagine someone like Rudy Giuliani could ever be mayor of Los Angeles.
Oh, he definitely could have been mayor. LA had Richard Riordan, who was at least as conservative as Giuliani.

Keep in mind that 1994-era Giuliani has nothing to do with 2017-era Giuliani. As mayor he declared NYC a sanctuary city for undocumented immigrants, endorsed ultra-liberal Mario Cuomo for governor, campaigned for gay rights (even went in drag at an event), expanded rent control, supported universal health care, was almost militant pro-choice (including huge expansion of public funding for abortions, and supported late-term abortions), was against the death penalty and ran on the Liberal ticket as well as the Republican ticket.

He was a lifelong liberal (was big Kennedy/McGovern/Carter supporter), then went nominally Republican, then completely lost his mind. Now he's basically to the right of Atilla the Hun. It's been an utterly bizarre transformation.
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  #15  
Old Posted Jan 8, 2017, 7:25 PM
Crawford Crawford is offline
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There are definitely Hasidic voting blocks in Chicago.
Where are these alleged Hasidic voting blocks in Chicago? I don't think there's even a majority Jewish neighborhood in Chicago these days. West Rogers Park comes the closest but certainly isn't mostly Hasidic.

There are barely any substantial Hasidic populations anywhere on the planet outside of Israel and a few pockets in the NYC metro. Even in NYC they really only have a notable impact in Brooklyn.
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  #16  
Old Posted Jan 8, 2017, 7:40 PM
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Originally Posted by Docere View Post
Probably not L.A., even though it would have been the most Republican/conservative by far back in the days when it was dominated by white Protestant Midwesterners.

Chicago is probably the most Democratic of the three, but it's largely machine Democrat rather than liberal Democrat.

NYC has its "liberal elite" swath of Manhattan and gentrified Brooklyn and the city is stereotypically ultra-liberal (Ted Cruz lashed out against "New York values" in the GOP primary; Newt Gingrich in the 1990s called New York an enclave of out of touch liberal/elitist values). But it probably has bigger swaths of political conservatism than Chicago does.
im guessing the new york metro would be the most conservative. im glad you make the distinction between labor democrat and social democrat. that was hillary's biggest misstep in the great lakes and probably cost her the election. LA's large mexican and immigrant population might make it lean a bit more conservative on reproductive rights and family issues though.
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  #17  
Old Posted Jan 8, 2017, 8:44 PM
jtown,man jtown,man is offline
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Originally Posted by Crawford View Post
NYC probably had proportionally more Trump voters, because the Hasidic community generally voted for Trump. LA and Chicago don't really have Hasidic voting blocks.

Not sure this is a proxy for "conservatism"; though, it's just that you have a sizable demographic that votes according to its elders (and they have voted for everything from far Left to far Right candidates). The same Hasidic leaders had their community vote for far Left candidates like DeBlasio, and have generally endorsed Dem candidates for President, including B. Clinton and Carter. But they were mad at Obama re. Israel so went for Trump.

And Trump isn't a Republican or traditional Conservative. I'm not sure this past election is really a good proxy for relative political conservatism.
Great point. Does anybody have a voting map from 2008 or 2012?
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  #18  
Old Posted Jan 8, 2017, 9:29 PM
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This seems like an awfully hair-splitty exercise. These three cities that are all decidedly blue in the American political context.
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  #19  
Old Posted Jan 8, 2017, 10:15 PM
Docere Docere is offline
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The Italian vote in the New York area seems more Republican than elsewhere (though Italian Americans everywhere swung towards Trump). They seem to be more practical law-and-order type conservatives though, rather than free market ideologues or hardcore social conservatives.

Maybe they're more conservative in New York because they're less assimilated?

Anothe reason for their conservative may be just related to their economic position (i.e. more affluent than their educational attainments suggest).
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  #20  
Old Posted Jan 8, 2017, 10:27 PM
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I want to say Chicago, but honestly it's probably really close. All 3 are on the more liberal spectrum of things.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Crawford View Post
Where are these alleged Hasidic voting blocks in Chicago? I don't think there's even a majority Jewish neighborhood in Chicago these days. West Rogers Park comes the closest but certainly isn't mostly Hasidic.

There are barely any substantial Hasidic populations anywhere on the planet outside of Israel and a few pockets in the NYC metro. Even in NYC they really only have a notable impact in Brooklyn.
Montreal is the only other city I can think of in North America like this. Maybe Philly?
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