2019 -- New Year Predictions

[We vs us]

Piggybacking on AVgeekDL's post in the ABIA thread, this seems like a prime time to take stock of where we see development heading in 2019. We've already seen some prognosticating about a possible economic slowdown/recession and what effects that might have on the pipeline. What other things do y'all think we'll see in the next year?

Here're a couple of mine:

1) The Convention Center expansion moves forward, and in a manner that closely tracks Adler's original Downtown Puzzle formulation. It's an unwieldy setup -- downtown hospitality TIF for funds for homelessness in exchange for CC expansion -- but one that has more upside for Austin as a whole, and one that has a growing business sector (hospitality) actively chipping in to address a very visible social problem. Lots of win win if Adler ever gets a chance to articulate it fully.

2) We lose a high profile project. Something we've been looking forward to collapses -- either quietly or with a loud bang. For my money, Republic Square looks like a leading contender.

3) We see another Railyard-style buyout. Austin's hot enough that all sorts of low rise/underutilized lots are almost certainly in play. A prime candidate in my mind is the Austin Ballet building; but you could pick almost any standalone parking garage in the CBD. (speaking of parking, I also think that if the CC expansion is greenlit, we might see the convention center parking structure on 2nd between Brazos and Trinity bundled in for development, either as more office or mixed use.)

4) CapMetro finds a way to go all-in on BRT (instead of LRT) -- selling points being that BRT is much cheaper and quicker to deploy than rail, and you could feasibly transition to whatever crazy linked-vehicle sorcery they think is going to replace rail (ART, I think?)

I'll give you more as I think of 'em . . . .

[mumu]

West Campus gets upzoned to around 250 feet and parking requirements lowered.

Riverside / Project Catalyst gets a major anchor tenant to move forward with housing/ offices.

[We vs us]

Originally Posted by mumu

Riverside / Project Catalyst gets a major anchor tenant to move forward with housing/ offices.

That would have to be a pretty hefty tenant, IMO . . .

[mumu]

Originally Posted by We vs us

That would have to be a pretty hefty tenant, IMO . . .

Yep.

[StoOgE]

6x starts construction but is downsized/value engineered.

Republic in limbo

Block 185 is go, becomes the signature tower in Austin.

Domain has massive explosion in growth in the area surrounding it and has massive density by the time Austin FC starts playing.

Big changes at the Port.

Cap metro pushes a ton of changes using buses and aba dons rail expansion for now.

Very few new projects announed as everyone girds their loins for downturn. Some business relocations or expansions would be the exception so maybe some office movement... But speculative building (apartments/condos/non-anchor office) will slow in the CBD.

[Echostatic]

6x stays on-schedule with its current scale.

The Republic is downsized to somewhere between current and previous, maybe 550'. Construction starts in late summer.

The Travis I happens as currently planned, but phase II gets scrapped.

Block 185 gets built with minor delays.

93 Red River and most similar-height projects get built.

Domain area gets a 300' tower.

Residential projects (other than 44 East) start to go under.

[The ATX]

City-wide infill, West Campus and Domain area projects will continue booming.

Financing for larger projects will continue to get more difficult to obtain nationwide as the economy slows. Austin will be less affected than most cities, but it will see a slow down in groundbreakings for 300'+ projects.

In addition to the five 300'+ projects underway:
Block 71 - 542'
300 Colorado - 446'
Marriott - 386'
5th & Brazos - 355'
Alexan on 11th - 350'

There are only three that seem to be a lock, and Block 185 won't start until later in the year due to the permitting process:
Block 185 - 589'
93 Red River - 369'
Domain Tower III - 306'

Some maybes being built by deep pocketed national developers that are far enough along in the permitting process to start in 2019:
6 X Guadalupe - 848'
Travis Tower #1- ~600'
44 East - 585' (Permitting time frame is more of an issue than financing IMO)
305 W. 5th - 509'
405 Colorado - 356'

[Geckos_Rule]

Originally Posted by StoOgE

Big changes at the Port.

???

[heliophobicdude]

Originally Posted by mumu

West Campus gets upzoned to around 250 feet and parking requirements lowered.

Riverside / Project Catalyst gets a major anchor tenant to move forward with housing/ offices.

This would be nice.

Does anyone know why 170ish feet stuck?

[mumu]

Originally Posted by heliophobicdude

This would be nice.

Does anyone know why 170ish feet stuck?

I think it was a trade off between how many levels one could realistically go with underground parking versus what would be built on top, given the ~40% required parking space ratio.

21 Rio was an exception, which I think is around 220 ft but has all parking above ground, but that required special approval.

~250 feet probably allows for the same 5-6 levels below grade parking and 23-24 stories of occupied (above grade) space, if the parking requirement per person/bedroom is lowered.

Buildings haven't been able to lease all their parking spaces in years and it's only getting worse, as ever fewer students bring cars to UT.

[StoOgE]

Originally Posted by mumu

I think it was a trade off between how many levels one could realistically go with underground parking versus what would be built on top, given the ~40% required parking space ratio.

21 Rio was an exception, which I think is around 220 ft but has all parking above ground, but that required special approval.

~250 feet probably allows for the same 5-6 levels below grade parking and 23-24 stories of occupied (above grade) space, if the parking requirement per person/bedroom is lowered.

Buildings haven't been able to lease all their parking spaces in years and it's only getting worse, as ever fewer students bring cars to UT.

When I was a student parking anywhere near campus was practically impossible. You had to enter a raffle to get a C permit to park at the softball fields.

Then again, student housing options back then were Far West and Riverside Dr if your parents weren't super rich.

Feels like a zoning requirement that is well past it's time given how walkable campus is and the growth of ride share.

[Geckos_Rule]

Originally Posted by StoOgE

When I was a student parking anywhere near campus was practically impossible. You had to enter a raffle to get a C permit to park at the softball fields.

Then again, student housing options back then were Far West and Riverside Dr if your parents weren't super rich.

Feels like a zoning requirement that is well past it's time given how walkable campus is and the growth of ride share.

And the rise in popularity of scooters, both scooters like Bird/Lime, as well as like a Vespa/Ruckus. Motorcycle permits are far cheaper and easier to obtain at UT, and they're much more convenient for driving a half-mile than a car. Shoot, there's even an apartment complex in WC that gives you a free Ruckus when you sign a lease...

[urbancore]

Originally Posted by Geckos_Rule

as well as like a Vespa/Ruckus. Motorcycle permits are far cheaper and easier to obtain at UT, and they're much more convenient for driving a half-mile than a car. .

I lived off Riverside while at UT, quickly tired of the buses, and bought a Vespa....one of the best purchases I've ever made. Parked it right next to class with the bicycles (never got a ticket). Sold it after 5 years for more money than I paid for it. This was 1987, btw.

Also, I had friends who paid $2k/mo rent for their Orangetree condo (which wasn't even new or that nice) in 1990!. It was a 2 bedroom!. That is how expensive it was to live close to campus. We paid $465/mo for a brand new 2 bedroom apartment on Wickersham. Total (not each!), in fact, one year, they LOWERED our rent to keep us from moving...imagine that. Oversupply can have an effect after all.

It was insane that the city zoning made us students live all over the city and ride into town to attend class. That was the beginning of my loathing of NIMBY's. Why do you live in a city, when you hate cities so much?

[We vs us]

Originally Posted by mumu

Yep.