Quote:
Originally Posted by Changing City
The revised schedule that was released in February 2023 had 7 February 2026 as the opening date, but subsequent schedules have had the date redacted, presumably because it's premature to have a specific date stated, while so much could still cause a delay. The Ministry of Transportation said last year “Once boring is complete, we will have more clarity on the timing of the remaining construction activities and overall project schedule.” It remains to be seen when they'll choose to share that clearer timing.
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In the airline business, they call these sorts of holdups, "creeping delays". A 10 minute delay in the morning gets reflected all the way through the schedule for all the remaining flights that day for that aircraft.
Now if the plane sits somewhere overnight for a few hours, the time tables can reset themselves daily.
The lesson is that as the day progresses, the chances of a series of delays lessens.
And so it is with construction projects. The great thing is that someone decided last year that "Feb 7, 2026" was possible. Of course, creeping delays inserted themselves and that date is no longer operative.
The official who stated that "once the tunnels are finished" they will have a better idea of a date was right. The last unknown is the tunnel bore.
After Elsie pops at Cypress, the remaining items are all calculable to a much greater precision.
The first estimate for completion was Sept 2025. That got shoved 5 months into the future at one go as issues appeared and had to be handled.
But there are really very few "great unknowns" left on this project, especially once the bores are complete.
We are going to find that Feb 7, 2026 will be shoved forward but not, this time, by 5 months but by 5 weeks. And then another shove forward but this time by 5 days.
We are no longer talking Dec 2026 here but rather March 2026 or perhaps April, or maybe May.