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Old Posted Sep 17, 2018, 12:06 AM
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Shrinking Mexico-born population & its effect on foreign-born population decreases

In 2015 Pew Research did a study entitled "More Mexicans Leaving Than Coming to the U.S."

"Net Loss of 140,000 from 2009 to 2014; Family Reunification Top Reason for Return."

Source: http://www.pewhispanic.org/2015/11/1...ng-to-the-u-s/

As many of you that are aware and that follow these types of statistics -- the continued population loss of those born in Mexico that lived in the United States has decreased significantly from 2016 to 2017. This decrease in population has begun to affect the overall number of Foreign-born in metro areas that have had large Mexican-born populations -- the most noticeable (if you believe these estimates to be reasonable & close to accurate) is Los Angeles.

Los Angeles's CSA Foreign-born population went from 5,639,407 in 2016 to an estimated 5,571,129, an overall lost of -68,278.

From 2016 to 2017 the population of people born in Mexico shrank by -303,767. This according to the US Census, American Community Survey 2017, 1-year (sample) estimates.

Other Metro areas that saw their foreign-born population shrink are:

Virginia Beach-Norfolk, VA-NC CSA -712
Tulsa-Muskogee-Bartlesville, OK CSA -752
Kansas City-Overland Park-Kansas City, MO-KS CSA -895
Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ Metro Area -2,581
Albuquerque-Santa Fe-Las Vegas, NM CSA -3,238
Oklahoma City-Shawnee, OK CSA -3,370
Birmingham-Hoover-Talladega, AL CSA -4,842
Cleveland-Akron-Canton, OH CSA -6,374
San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX Metro Area -8,095
Fresno-Madera, CA CSA -8,296
Tucson-Nogales, AZ CSA -11,390
San Diego-Carlsbad, CA Metro Area -20,511

The majority of those like San Diego, Tucson, Fresno, San Antonio, Phoenix, etc. were definitely affected by this exodus as well.

However, in many other cases the increase in those born in Asia, Africa, other parts of Latin America, the Caribbean & to a lesser extent the Middle East offset the out-migration of Mexicans.

Here are some select metro's overall.

2016-2017 growth of Foreign-born

United States 786,510
1 Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Port St. Lucie, FL CSA 68,185
2 Dallas-Fort Worth, TX-OK CSA 61,956
3 San Jose-San Francisco-Oakland, CA CSA 59,112
4 New York-Newark, NY-NJ-CT-PA CSA 48,111
5 Chicago-Naperville, IL-IN-WI CSA 44,451
6 Seattle-Tacoma, WA CSA 41,318
7 Washington-Baltimore-Arlington, DC-MD-VA-WV-PA CSA 39,181
8 Houston-The Woodlands, TX CSA 37,700
9 Boston-Worcester-Providence, MA-RI-NH-CT CSA 31,292
10 Detroit-Warren-Ann Arbor, MI CSA 29,880
11 Orlando-Deltona-Daytona Beach, FL CSA 29,036
12 Sacramento-Roseville, CA CSA 25,493
13 Minneapolis-St. Paul, MN-WI CSA 22,284
14 Las Vegas-Henderson, NV-AZ CSA 18,635
15 Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill, NC CSA 16,548
16 Jacksonville-St. Marys-Palatka, FL-GA CSA 16,201
17 Salt Lake City-Provo-Orem, UT CSA 15,697
18 Charlotte-Concord, NC-SC CSA 13,813
19 Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro, TN CSA 13,352
20 Cincinnati-Wilmington-Maysville, OH-KY-IN CSA 12,515
21 Louisville/Jefferson County--Elizabethtown--Madison, KY-IN CSA 12,150
22 Columbus-Marion-Zanesville, OH CSA 7,163
23 Honolulu, HI Metro Area 5,675
24 Memphis-Forrest City, TN-MS-AR CSA 5,401
25 Denver-Aurora, CO CSA 5,211
26 Omaha-Council Bluffs-Fremont, NE-IA CSA 4,810
27 Portland-Vancouver-Salem, OR-WA CSA 4,692
28 Philadelphia-Reading-Camden, PA-NJ-DE-MD CSA 4,377
29 Grand Rapids-Wyoming-Muskegon, MI CSA 3,750
30 Boise City-Mountain Home-Ontario, ID-OR CSA 3,403
31 Little Rock-North Little Rock, AR CSA 3,097
32 Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY CSA 2,887
33 Milwaukee-Racine-Waukesha, WI CSA 2,660
34 Albany-Schenectady, NY CSA 1,715
35 St. Louis-St. Charles-Farmington, MO-IL CSA 1,516
36 Indianapolis-Carmel-Muncie, IN CSA 1,087
37 Pittsburgh-New Castle-Weirton, PA-OH-WV CSA 446
38 New Orleans-Metairie-Hammond, LA-MS CSA 332
39 Des Moines-Ames-West Des Moines, IA CSA 239
40 Virginia Beach-Norfolk, VA-NC CSA -712
41 Tulsa-Muskogee-Bartlesville, OK CSA -752
42 Kansas City-Overland Park-Kansas City, MO-KS CSA -895
43 Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ Metro Area -2,581
44 Albuquerque-Santa Fe-Las Vegas, NM CSA -3,238
45 Oklahoma City-Shawnee, OK CSA -3,370
46 Birmingham-Hoover-Talladega, AL CSA -4,842
47 Cleveland-Akron-Canton, OH CSA -6,374
48 San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX Metro Area -8,095
49 Fresno-Madera, CA CSA -8,296
50 Tucson-Nogales, AZ CSA -11,390
51 San Diego-Carlsbad, CA Metro Area -20,511
52 Los Angeles-Long Beach, CA CSA -68,278


Those same metros from above:

2017 Foreign born: 2017 by % 2016 by %

United States 44,525,855 13.7% 13.5%
1 New York-Newark, NY-NJ-CT-PA CSA 6,463,292 27.1% 27.1%
2 Los Angeles-Long Beach, CA CSA 5,571,129 29.7% 30.2%
3 San Jose-San Francisco-Oakland, CA CSA 2,689,641 30.4% 30.1%
4 Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Port St. Lucie, FL CSA 2,615,408 38.3% 37.9%
5 Washington-Baltimore-Arlington, DC-MD-VA-WV-PA CSA 1,778,172 18.2% 18.0%
6 Chicago-Naperville, IL-IN-WI CSA 1,734,662 17.5% 17.1%
7 Houston-The Woodlands, TX CSA 1,646,006 23.2% 23.1%
8 Dallas-Fort Worth, TX-OK CSA 1,412,213 18.0% 17.6%
9 Boston-Worcester-Providence, MA-RI-NH-CT CSA 1,311,572 15.9% 15.7%
10 Seattle-Tacoma, WA CSA 795,401 16.7% 16.1%
11 Philadelphia-Reading-Camden, PA-NJ-DE-MD CSA 787,263 10.9% 10.9%
12 San Diego-Carlsbad, CA Metro Area 777,480 23.3% 24.1%
13 Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ Metro Area 673,330 14.2% 14.5%
14 Orlando-Deltona-Daytona Beach, FL CSA 527,527 16.1% 15.6%
15 Las Vegas-Henderson, NV-AZ CSA 525,323 21.4% 21.1%
16 Detroit-Warren-Ann Arbor, MI CSA 506,927 9.5% 9.0%
17 Sacramento-Roseville, CA CSA 479,273 18.4% 17.7%
18 Denver-Aurora, CO CSA 416,606 11.9% 11.9%
19 Minneapolis-St. Paul, MN-WI CSA 416,102 10.5% 10.1%
20 Portland-Vancouver-Salem, OR-WA CSA 375,167 11.7% 11.7%
21 San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX Metro Area 287,218 11.6% 12.2%
22 Charlotte-Concord, NC-SC CSA 262,547 9.8% 9.4%
23 Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill, NC CSA 260,271 11.8% 11.3%
24 Salt Lake City-Provo-Orem, UT CSA 242,023 9.5% 9.0%
25 Fresno-Madera, CA CSA 236,283 20.6% 21.6%
26 Honolulu, HI Metro Area 199,185 20.1% 19.5%
27 Cleveland-Akron-Canton, OH CSA 167,289 4.8% 5.0%
28 Columbus-Marion-Zanesville, OH CSA 166,873 6.7% 6.5%
29 Indianapolis-Carmel-Muncie, IN CSA 159,990 6.6% 6.7%
30 Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro, TN CSA 159,537 7.9% 7.4%
31 Kansas City-Overland Park-Kansas City, MO-KS CSA 157,665 6.4% 6.5%
32 Jacksonville-St. Marys-Palatka, FL-GA CSA 146,142 9.0% 8.1%
33 Tucson-Nogales, AZ CSA 139,604 13.1% 14.2%
34 St. Louis-St. Charles-Farmington, MO-IL CSA 137,473 4.7% 4.7%
35 Milwaukee-Racine-Waukesha, WI CSA 134,266 6.6% 6.4%
36 Virginia Beach-Norfolk, VA-NC CSA 115,319 6.3% 6.3%
37 Cincinnati-Wilmington-Maysville, OH-KY-IN CSA 110,934 4.9% 4.4%
38 Oklahoma City-Shawnee, OK CSA 103,304 7.1% 7.4%
39 New Orleans-Metairie-Hammond, LA-MS CSA 100,529 6.7% 6.7%
40 Albuquerque-Santa Fe-Las Vegas, NM CSA 100,365 8.5% 8.8%
41 Pittsburgh-New Castle-Weirton, PA-OH-WV CSA 93,169 3.5% 3.5%
42 Albany-Schenectady, NY CSA 82,932 7.1% 6.9%
43 Louisville/Jefferson County--Elizabethtown--Madison, KY-IN CSA 82,576 5.4% 4.7%
44 Grand Rapids-Wyoming-Muskegon, MI CSA 82,290 5.6% 5.4%
45 Omaha-Council Bluffs-Fremont, NE-IA CSA 75,636 7.8% 7.4%
46 Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY CSA 74,989 6.2% 6.0%
47 Memphis-Forrest City, TN-MS-AR CSA 73,283 5.3% 4.9%
48 Tulsa-Muskogee-Bartlesville, OK CSA 69,294 6.0% 6.0%
49 Des Moines-Ames-West Des Moines, IA CSA 60,986 7.6% 7.6%
50 Boise City-Mountain Home-Ontario, ID-OR CSA 51,268 6.5% 6.2%
51 Birmingham-Hoover-Talladega, AL CSA 47,129 3.5% 3.8%
52 Little Rock-North Little Rock, AR CSA 35,644 3.9% 3.6%


Last but not least -- we have no real estimates of how many Puerto Rican's have migrated to US States since Hurricane Maria but I can imagine that it will be much larger than what it was from 2016-2017 as seen below and some select metro's that they've migrated to or left.

2016-2017 growth of Puerto Rico-born

United States 41,008
1 New York-Newark, NY-NJ-CT-PA CSA 10,637
2 Boston-Worcester-Providence, MA-RI-NH-CT CSA 7,668
3 San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX Metro Area 4,243
4 Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill, NC CSA 3,158
5 Pittsburgh-New Castle-Weirton, PA-OH-WV CSA 2,732
6 Charlotte-Concord, NC-SC CSA 2,348
7 Detroit-Warren-Ann Arbor, MI CSA 2,248
8 Indianapolis-Carmel-Muncie, IN CSA 2,022
9 Houston-The Woodlands, TX CSA 2,005
10 Denver-Aurora, CO CSA 1,840
11 Columbus-Marion-Zanesville, OH CSA 1,670
12 Salt Lake City-Provo-Orem, UT CSA 1,666
13 Cleveland-Akron-Canton, OH CSA 1,638
14 Honolulu, HI Metro Area 1,637
15 Minneapolis-St. Paul, MN-WI CSA 1,427
16 Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ Metro Area 1,330
17 Virginia Beach-Norfolk, VA-NC CSA 1,284
18 Portland-Vancouver-Salem, OR-WA CSA 1,135
19 Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro, TN CSA 874
20 Orlando-Deltona-Daytona Beach, FL CSA 851
21 Sacramento-Roseville, CA CSA 839
22 Washington-Baltimore-Arlington, DC-MD-VA-WV-PA CSA 818
23 Albuquerque-Santa Fe-Las Vegas, NM CSA 795
24 St. Louis-St. Charles-Farmington, MO-IL CSA 764
25 Los Angeles-Long Beach, CA CSA 503
26 Las Vegas-Henderson, NV-AZ CSA 456
27 Seattle-Tacoma, WA CSA 437
28 Kansas City-Overland Park-Kansas City, MO-KS CSA 326
29 Oklahoma City-Shawnee, OK CSA 172
30 Cincinnati-Wilmington-Maysville, OH-KY-IN CSA 100
31 Boise City-Mountain Home-Ontario, ID-OR CSA 29
32 Tucson-Nogales, AZ CSA -10
33 Little Rock-North Little Rock, AR CSA -159
34 Tulsa-Muskogee-Bartlesville, OK CSA -195
35 Omaha-Council Bluffs-Fremont, NE-IA CSA -201
36 Dallas-Fort Worth, TX-OK CSA -223
37 Birmingham-Hoover-Talladega, AL CSA -310
38 Fresno-Madera, CA CSA -360
39 Des Moines-Ames-West Des Moines, IA CSA -414
40 Grand Rapids-Wyoming-Muskegon, MI CSA -433
41 Milwaukee-Racine-Waukesha, WI CSA -525
42 Memphis-Forrest City, TN-MS-AR CSA -619
43 Louisville/Jefferson County--Elizabethtown--Madison, KY-IN CSA -697
44 San Jose-San Francisco-Oakland, CA CSA -953
45 New Orleans-Metairie-Hammond, LA-MS CSA -1,025
46 Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY CSA -1,266
47 San Diego-Carlsbad, CA Metro Area -1,616
48 Albany-Schenectady, NY CSA -2,701
49 Jacksonville-St. Marys-Palatka, FL-GA CSA -3,444
50 Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Port St. Lucie, FL CSA -4,434
51 Chicago-Naperville, IL-IN-WI CSA -5,182
52 Philadelphia-Reading-Camden, PA-NJ-DE-MD CSA -11,474

These are all based on the US Census, ACS estimates....I would take these with a grain of salt as i have my doubts about places like Philadelphia losing its Puerto Rican-born population by over 11,000 in a year or Orlando's only growing by 851. I think that they are way off here.

What are your thoughts? Could it be that more people especially in the case of those born in Mexico are just less and less likely to report their status or place of birth because of the current political climate? ICE?
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Old Posted Sep 17, 2018, 12:43 AM
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These estimates have to be insanely off. No way in hell did Orlando grow by a few hundred Puerto Ricans. And how did Boston have a huge increase in PRs when they don't even have a sizable community and the NE corridor hasn't been the primary destinations for PRs for 40 years?

And the overall immigration numbers sound sketchy too. No way is LA hemorrhaging immigrants.

I'm getting more and more skeptical of ACS one-year estimates.
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Old Posted Sep 17, 2018, 1:04 AM
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Good work UrbanGuy.

LAs foreign born population shrank by 68k? Wow I wonder how many of those are long time residents simply moving away for cheaper housing?
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Old Posted Sep 17, 2018, 1:09 AM
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These numbers would be before the Puerto Rico hurricane crisis numbers would show up right? I don't think they're that strange, large and established populations of foreign-born would have a higher potential for losses (people returning), especially if they're closer to the southern border.

Crawford denying the godly word of the census? Must be a cold day in hell.
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Old Posted Sep 17, 2018, 1:10 AM
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Good work UrbanGuy.

LAs foreign born population shrank by 68k? Wow I wonder how many of those are long time residents simply moving away for cheaper housing?
Aren't a shit ton of them also going to Texas? Would make perfect sense honestly.
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Old Posted Sep 17, 2018, 2:09 AM
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These numbers would be before the Puerto Rico hurricane crisis numbers would show up right? I don't think they're that strange, large and established populations of foreign-born would have a higher potential for losses (people returning), especially if they're closer to the southern border.

Crawford denying the godly word of the census? Must be a cold day in hell.
These are before Hurricane Maria (July 2016 - July 2017), however, I do doubt that Orlando's PR population grew by only 851 as it is one of the most popular settlement destinations in the country for Puerto Ricans -- this by other stats such as school enrollments, change of address and the actual PR-born population which I believe is the 2nd largest after NYC in raw numbers.

In the case of the Mexican-born for LA and some of the other places affected by the out-migration -- it is true that many do move on to other domestic locations but I also think that there might be something else underlying going on like not reporting their status or answering these types of questions out of fear. I've noticed a similar phenomenon with many immigrants from Arab-speaking countries, save for Iraq, Syria, Egypt & Morocco. Places like Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Lebanon, Kuwait & Jordan also supposedly shrank in foreign-born.
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Old Posted Sep 17, 2018, 2:17 AM
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Good work UrbanGuy.

LAs foreign born population shrank by 68k? Wow I wonder how many of those are long time residents simply moving away for cheaper housing?
Thanks! Apparently, The Bay Area & Sac were not significantly impacted negatively in overall Foreign-born population growth as metro's to the south. I think that immigration from Asia, Eastern Europe, other places of Latin America and even places like Afghanistan & Fiji (of which both the Bay & Sac saw increases) helped offset any loss from Mexico.
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Old Posted Sep 17, 2018, 3:28 AM
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In California, the foreign born population has grown since 1960.

1960: 9% of the population was foreign born. 1.6% were Mexican.
2016: about 28% of the California population was foreign born. 11.1% Mexican.
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Old Posted Sep 17, 2018, 12:23 PM
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There are about 45 million foreign born residents in the U.S. The highest ever. 1970 about 5% of the population was foreign born. Today it's somewhere around 14% and by 2060 it's projected to be around 18% of the overall population.
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Old Posted Sep 17, 2018, 1:17 PM
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^Even with the apparent decrease in Mexico-born immigrants it continues to grow, thanks in part to the increases (or steady streams) of immigrants from Asia (India, China, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Nepal, Myanmar, Thailand, etc), Africa (Nigeria, Ghana, Congo D.R., Ethiopia, Egypt, Morocco, Kenya, Cameroon, Cote d'Ivoire, Sierra Leone, Senegal, Liberia, etc), the Caribbean (Haiti, Cuba, Dominican Republic, etc), other parts of Latin America (Brazil, Venezuela, Colombia, Peru, etc) and parts of the Middle East (Iraq, Syria)/West Asia (Afghanistan, Iran, Turkey).
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Old Posted Sep 17, 2018, 1:31 PM
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Wow, Chicago is clearly making up its loss of Mexican immigration from other sources. We are seeing a lot of Indian, Chinese and perhaps a combination of other groups are helping make up the difference.

The loss in LA is staggering
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Old Posted Sep 17, 2018, 1:39 PM
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Curious as to why Atlanta is missing from every list? Did they just randomly choose places?
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Old Posted Sep 17, 2018, 2:10 PM
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Curious as to why Atlanta is missing from every list? Did they just randomly choose places?
Good catch, you're right. How could I have missed that one. Here is Atlanta:

2016-2017 growth of Foreign-born *It would rank just above Minneapolis & below Sacramento
Atlanta--Athens-Clarke County--Sandy Springs, GA CSA 25,431

2017 Foreign born: 2017 by % 2016 by % *ranks above Seattle for #10 in raw numbers
Atlanta--Athens-Clarke County--Sandy Springs, GA CSA 887,154 13.5% 13.4%

2016-2017 growth of Puerto Rico-born
Atlanta--Athens-Clarke County--Sandy Springs, GA CSA -137
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Old Posted Sep 17, 2018, 2:13 PM
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Wow, Chicago is clearly making up its loss of Mexican immigration from other sources. We are seeing a lot of Indian, Chinese and perhaps a combination of other groups are helping make up the difference.

The loss in LA is staggering
Your observations are correct in the case of Chicago -- the increase of immigrants from India, China as well as Pakistan & Nigeria among others have help make a difference in any losses from Mexico.

Last edited by Urbanguy; Sep 17, 2018 at 3:31 PM.
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Old Posted Sep 17, 2018, 5:17 PM
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Wow, Chicago is clearly making up its loss of Mexican immigration from other sources. We are seeing a lot of Indian, Chinese and perhaps a combination of other groups are helping make up the difference.

The loss in LA is staggering
So I just looked up geographic mobility and 121,000 foreign born persons who lived in LA in 2017 lived abroad a year earlier, so I think the overall negative growth means that despite a lot of newbies moving in, they were simply offset and exceded by the number of those leaving-just like the story as the domestic side.
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Old Posted Sep 17, 2018, 6:00 PM
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^ I was thinking something similar, what you're describing is completely plausible. Being a huge immigrant hub like LA doesn't necessarily mean the immigrants stay. Lots of time they come, process, and move somewhere else in the US. That's the role New York has also played for well over a century. Right now NYC seems to be retaining a larger portion of its immigrants than LA is, but then I'm sure a lot of things factor into that (but mostly economics & jobs, I imagine).
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Old Posted Sep 17, 2018, 7:15 PM
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^ I was thinking something similar, what you're describing is completely plausible. Being a huge immigrant hub like LA doesn't necessarily mean the immigrants stay. Lots of time they come, process, and move somewhere else in the US. That's the role New York has also played for well over a century. Right now NYC seems to be retaining a larger portion of its immigrants than LA is, but then I'm sure a lot of things factor into that (but mostly economics & jobs, I imagine).
There's a lot of upward mobility with immigrants, more so now than decades ago. Some will move several times before finally settling in a "permanent" location, same with Refugees that eventually become legal permanent residents. However, there is a lot of consistent evidence & research that indicates the Mexico-born population is shrinking & with a place like Los Angeles that has had & still has the largest amount of immigrants born in Mexico (over 2 million) -- it's very plausible that the exodus out-of-country has affected the city & that the amount of in-migration from other countries was just not enough to balance it out.
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Old Posted Sep 17, 2018, 9:43 PM
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Is there a way to figure out if loss of foreign born means the foreign born leaving to another city/state or another part of the US, vs. the foreign born returning to their old country or leaving the country (I suppose that's hard to track, but I'm curious since these stats bring up out-migration sometimes, though probably out-migration is really only feasibly analyzed at a national level)?
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Old Posted Sep 17, 2018, 9:48 PM
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Domestic migrants and international immigrants are tracked by birthplace right?

So if a Mexican-born Angeleno and Californian-born Angeleno move to Texas, it counts as one international immigration to Texas and one domestic migration to Texas, right, not two domestic migrations?

And if the two people, now living in Texas, move to say, Arizona, it's still not going to be two domestic migrations from Texas to Arizona, but one move from a California-born, and a Mexican-born to Arizona?
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Old Posted Sep 17, 2018, 11:10 PM
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Domestic migrants and international immigrants are tracked by birthplace right?

So if a Mexican-born Angeleno and Californian-born Angeleno move to Texas, it counts as one international immigration to Texas and one domestic migration to Texas, right, not two domestic migrations?

And if the two people, now living in Texas, move to say, Arizona, it's still not going to be two domestic migrations from Texas to Arizona, but one move from a California-born, and a Mexican-born to Arizona?
These stats are based on place of birth so if they were born in another country (no matter where they move to domestically) they will always be considered foreign-born, naturalized or not.

However, in the case of Los Angeles it's more than likely (if these stats are fairly close to reality) is that more Mexican-born people left the metro than settled in -- domestic and/or international migration combined. Many studies tend to agree that many people that were originally born in Mexico have returned. This is not an unusual phenomenon but has become large scale in recent years.
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