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  #6761  
Old Posted Sep 12, 2019, 7:32 PM
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BG918 BG918 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wong21fr View Post
Speaking of RiNo developments, Carmel Partners has broken ground on their development at 3301 Brighton Blvd that's called Carmel Drivetrain. Not too much information on this 400-odd unit development, but I found this rendering:
I wonder if the City will extend 33rd through from Brighton to Arkins Ct? It looks like a city street on the right side of the building.

Looks like this will cover up the backside (north side) of The Dylan, including the mural:


This will be on the dirt lot on the left:


https://www.bizjournals.com/denver/n...sells-for.html

Last edited by BG918; Sep 12, 2019 at 7:50 PM.
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  #6762  
Old Posted Sep 12, 2019, 7:45 PM
laniroj laniroj is offline
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Originally Posted by TakeFive View Post
Applying some common sense to statistics

DBJ has a piece ranking cities by number of apartment units expected to deliver in 2019 based on data from RentCafé. Denver is ranked ahead of Portland, Minneapolis, Tampa, San Francisco, Boston, Charlotte, San Jose and Orlando at No. 12 just behind Chicago.

Obviously, these numbers can bounce around from year to year. In fact, last year Denver delivered 15,187 new units while in 2019 RentCafe is estimating 6,836 new apartment units. What if we averaged both years together? Let's see where 11,000 new units would place Denver this year.

In addition to the above named cities at 11,000 units Denver would also rank higher than Chicago, Houston, D.C., Phoenix, Los Angeles, Atlanta and Austin at No. 5 behind only Miami, NYC, Seattle and Dallas-Fort Worth.

I would also suggest that much of the disparity from 2018 to 2019 is much fewer units being delivered from the suburbs.
Think as you may, I'd be highly skeptical of RentCafe - that website is terribly inaccurate.

In Colorado, SFH permits fell 18.4% YOY May 18'-19' and multifamily permits fell 30.3% during the same timeframe - this all according to CU Leeds Colorado Business Review.

I would add another data point as to the rapidly dwindling development pipeline - more and more fully entitled projects are sitting idle and others being marketed for sale because developers (large and small) can't get the numbers to work. This is mainly a function of costs vs returns vs risk and not so much lack of capital, as was the case in the previous two recessions. There is ample money available, it just doesn't want to pursue a 6% risk adjusted return, it now wants 8% as the risk of recession - or at the very least slowing growth - increases on the daily. Buyers of properties of all types cannot simply cap rate compress their way out of it anymore.
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  #6763  
Old Posted Sep 12, 2019, 8:55 PM
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TakeFive TakeFive is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by laniroj View Post
Think as you may, I'd be highly skeptical of RentCafe - that website is terribly inaccurate.
Wasn't thinking; merely making observations.

Quote:
Originally Posted by laniroj View Post
In Colorado, SFH permits fell 18.4% YOY May 18'-19' and multifamily permits fell 30.3% during the same timeframe - this all according to CU Leeds Colorado Business Review.
SFH previously discussed and explained; no need to revisit other than to reiterate the process has been a bit constipated but tons moving towards production.

With respect to multifamily permits I'm not surprised.

Quote:
Originally Posted by laniroj View Post
I would add another data point as to the rapidly dwindling development pipeline - more and more fully entitled projects are sitting idle and others being marketed for sale because developers (large and small) can't get the numbers to work. This is mainly a function of costs vs returns vs risk and not so much lack of capital, as was the case in the previous two recessions. There is ample money available, it just doesn't want to pursue a 6% risk adjusted return, it now wants 8% as the risk of recession - or at the very least slowing growth - increases on the daily. Buyers of properties of all types cannot simply cap rate compress their way out of it anymore.
Interesting info that I wasn't aware of.

I recalling noting when the 10-year T-bill dropped below 2%; it proceeded to drop down a little below 1.5%; in short order it reversed to now over 1.75%. That kind of volatility is unusual. Markets have become 'unsettled.'

I could speculate about a number of things but let's just say that local development is more measured and we'll see what happens.
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  #6764  
Old Posted Sep 13, 2019, 7:49 PM
Robert.hampton Robert.hampton is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BG918 View Post
I wonder if the City will extend 33rd through from Brighton to Arkins Ct? It looks like a city street on the right side of the building.

Looks like this will cover up the backside (north side) of The Dylan, including the mural

Too bad it won't cover the entire building! The Dylan -- what a stupid name for a truly horrendous building.

Drivetrain look nice though -- would be a great fit for the feel of RINO. Too bad we didn't have more of the builds on Brighton this cycle go for this throwback industrial look and instead opt for cheap EIFS cladding and bright tacky colors.
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  #6765  
Old Posted Yesterday, 5:35 PM
twister244 twister244 is offline
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Did a nice long lunch on my bike yesterday through RiNo and checked out all of the different sites:

Camden Rino:



The apartments at 34th and Walnut:





Not sure what this on back near 35th..... I think offices?......



The HUB Phase II.......



Walnut Street Lofts.....



The WTC site has remained unchanged unfortunately, no news there. I migrated over and up Brighton to check out the new Mission Ballroom area. Demolition of all of the existing buildings is complete now and there is a large amount of wide open dirt lots begging to be developed on. The building to the right (below) I think is offices, with the actual ballroom to the left. I didn't see any actual construction on the swaths of land surrounding the ballroom along Brighton, but this development has huge potential given it's location. For refreshers - https://www.northwynkoop.com/



Moved down along Brighton to the Rev360 project.....



Pretty sure this is the "Vib" hotel site where they had a "ground breaking". Although the site remains undisturbed.



This is the NW corner of 36th and Brighton. According to the city site, this is supposed to be a Red Truck Brewery?



This is the Drive Train site where excavation is underway. If you look deep in the background, you will see a small black crane with some wood framing at the bottom. That's the "Redacted" rental project going up inside Taxi.



Here's the project at 31st and Brighton. Looks like they are just working on converting the existing space right now. Didn't really see any other construction there.

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  #6766  
Old Posted Yesterday, 6:37 PM
pablosan pablosan is offline
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Thanks Twister. Nice updates.
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