2011, Q1-3 Population Growth Rates (est)

[shreddog]

Stats Can just released their latest batch of population estimates, running up to Q3 2011.

Overall no real surprises: Ontario leads in absolute numbers, Alberta in percentages, but there are some interesting trends and tibits.

I only played with the numbers for the big 4, but here are some views

Population Estimates for Oct 2011
Canada: 34,605,346
ON: 13.422,912
QC: 8,002,098
BC: 4,592,034
AB: 3,798,791

Growth, 2011 YTD, total / %
Canada: 311,828 / .91%
ON: 123,671 / .93%
QC: 61,880 / .78%
BC: 40,292 / .89%
AB: 56,598 / 1.51%

Natural Increase (births -deaths)
Canada; 104,979
ON: 37,903
QC: 22,300
BC: 10,071
AB: 23,866

Inter-Provincial Migration
ON: -2027
QC: -2703
BC: -1567
AB: 13131

International Migration
Canada: 206,869
ON: 87,794 (42.4%)
QC: 42,283 (20.4%)
BC: 31,788 (15.4%)
AB: 19,601 (9.5%)

Some observations:

Based on the current growth trends, Canada’s population may be over 35M by Feb 2012, Alberta may be over 4M by early 2013, Ontario may also hit 14M by early 2013 and BC may hit 5M in late 2014. Of course these estimates are wild ass at best, but it will be interesting to see when these milestones are hit.

The big 4 take in 87.7% of all international immigrants and make up 86.2% of the population ... meaning the immigrant to population link is almost as it should be ... no real surprise.

Alberta totally owns interprovincial migration, BC saw negative interprovincal migration in all three quarters and both Ontario and Quebec had a mix of positive and negative (but mainly negative).

In natural growth (births less deaths) Alberta has higher absolute growth than Quebec with less than half the population! Yes it is true that the median age in Alberta is much lower than Quebec’s, but it is still shocking to see this much of a difference!

And if you’re interested on how things looked a year ago … http://forum.skyscraperpage.com/showthread.php?t=190164

[thurmas]

Manitoba has the 2nd highest growth rate in Canada after Alberta we grew by 15,700 people or 1.37% The West is just leaving Quebec and the Maritimes in the dust.

[vanatox]

There was an error in the table regarding total growth for Quebec. I have changed the numbers.

Originally Posted by shreddog

Stats Can just released their latest batch of population estimates, running up to Q3 2011.

Overall no real surprises: Ontario leads in absolute numbers, Alberta in percentages, but there are some interesting trends and tibits.

I only played with the numbers for the big 4, but here are some views

Population Estimates for Oct 2011
Canada: 34,605,346
ON: 13.422,912
QC: 8,002,098
BC: 4,592,034
AB: 3,798,791

Growth, 2011 YTD, total / %
Canada: 311,828 / .91%
ON: 123,671 / .93%
QC: 61,880 / .78%
BC: 40,292 / .89%
AB: 56,598 / 1.51%

Natural Increase (births -deaths)
Canada; 104,979
ON: 37,903
QC: 22,300
BC: 10,071
AB: 23,866

Inter-Provincial Migration
ON: -2027
QC: -2703
BC: -1567
AB: 13131

International Migration
Canada: 206,869
ON: 87,794 (42.4%)
QC: 42,283 (20.4%)
BC: 31,788 (15.4%)
AB: 19,601 (9.5%)

Some observations:

Based on the current growth trends, Canada’s population may be over 35M by Feb 2012, Alberta may be over 4M by early 2013, Ontario may also hit 14M by early 2013 and BC may hit 5M in late 2014. Of course these estimates are wild ass at best, but it will be interesting to see when these milestones are hit.

The big 4 take in 87% of all international immigrants.

Alberta totally owns interprovincial migration, BC saw negative interprovincal migration in all three quarters and both Ontario and Quebec had a mix of positive and negative (but mainly negative).

In natural growth (births less deaths) Alberta has higher absolute growth than Quebec with less than half the population! Yes it is true that the median age in Alberta is much lower than Quebec’s, but it is still shocking to see this much of a difference!

And if you’re interested on how things looked a year ago … http://forum.skyscraperpage.com/showthread.php?t=190164

[vanatox]

Originally Posted by shreddog

In natural growth (births less deaths) Alberta has higher absolute growth than Quebec with less than half the population! Yes it is true that the median age in Alberta is much lower than Quebec’s, but it is still shocking to see this much of a difference![/url]

Alberta really has a baby boom, especially if you compare with BC. More than double absolute natural growth even if the province has a lower population. There has been a mini baby boom in Quebec but the province also has an aging population so the effect is less apparent.

[Dougler306]

I think maintoba was 3rd in population growth. Well sask was ranked 2nd in growth

[thurmas]

Sask was 1052000 last year this year 1063000 Man was 1243000 last year this year 1258000 growth rates are tied.

[thurmas]

By the stats can population clock Manitoba grows 5 minutes per person faster than Sask. I can't let Rider people win!


http://www.statcan.gc.ca/ig-gi/pop-sk-eng.htm

http://www.statcan.gc.ca/ig-gi/pop-mb-eng.htm

[Nathan]

Originally Posted by thurmas

Sask was 1052000 last year this year 1063000 Man was 1243000 last year this year 1258000 growth rates are tied.

Saskatchewan grew by 5,651 in Q3 (apparently the highest rate in Canada) and 5,444 in Q2. This alone is at the 11k number your numbers give, and Saskatchewan has had a growth in population in every quarter since April 2006, so something is off here...

article

[taal]

Are there predictions for specific cites as well ?

[MolsonExport]

Originally Posted by thurmas

Manitoba has the 2nd highest growth rate in Canada after Alberta we grew by 15,700 people or 1.37% The West is just leaving Quebec and the Maritimes in the dust.

15,700 is certainly leaving Quebec in the dust. Let's put things into perspective:

ON: 123,671
QC: 61,880

[Vertigo3000]

Annual growth right?
Because that can't be the amount of growth since 2006! Too little for five years.

[Darkoshvilli]

Originally Posted by MolsonExport

15,700 is certainly leaving Quebec in the dust. Let's put things into perspective:

ON: 123,671
QC: 61,880

Don't be so cocky man. At this rate Manitoba will surpass Quebec's population in 200,000 years.

[Nicko999]

Originally Posted by Darkoshvilli

Don't be so cocky man. At this rate Manitoba will surpass Quebec's population in 200,000 years.

And let's not forget the Territories... they are leaving the West in the dust.

[armorand93]

Originally Posted by Nicko999

And let's not forget the Territories... they are leaving the West in the dust.

Particularly Iqualit, look at that capital grow! Heard they might get BUS RESOLDFROMWINNIPEG TRANSIT!

[caltrane74]

By 2020 Ontario might be able to hit 17 million, on track for 21 million by 2030.

[thurmas]

I meant all of Western Canada but if I live long enough in 200,000 years it will be Manitoba time!

[Acajack]

This obsession that some people here have with overtaking other areas of the country in population is really bizarre...

[Biff]

Originally Posted by Acajack

This obsession that some people here have with overtaking other areas of the country in population is really bizarre...

I can't wait until my part of the country overtakes your part of the country in population....we will reign supreme........bwwhha ha ha ha......cough, cough

[ErickMontreal]

Originally Posted by Biff

I can't wait until my part of the country to separate from your part of the country ....we will reign supreme........bwwhha ha ha ha......cough, cough

[shreddog]

Originally Posted by Acajack

This obsession that some people here have with overtaking other areas of the country in population is really bizarre...

Same same for those "overtaken" (there was a fair bit of angst a few years ago when the Calgary metro exceeded Ottawa's) however I do agree that this obsession is puzzling at best. It's almost like some view it as a zero sum game where the benefit of one comes at the expense of another.

BTW, before anyone gets too hung up on these numbers - first they are estimates (albeit very good ones) and these growth numbers will change dramatically over time. Simply go to the SC website and look at the historical numbers.

Anyway, enjoy the numbers, explore the analysis, and remember as always my {insert city name here} is always better than your {insert city name here}.