Statscan: Parenthood, incomes draw people to the suburbs

[c_speed3108]

As reported in the Ottawa Citizen Newspaper.

Parenthood, incomes draw people to the suburbs

By Shannon Proudfoot, Canwest News Service June 8, 2010 11:03 AM


One in seven people of prime child-rearing age vacated Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver for the suburbs between 2001 and 2006, a new Statistics Canada report shows, and very few made the move in the opposite direction.

The 25-to-44 age group was the most likely to head for the manicured lawns of the suburbs, the agency found by examining census records, with nearly one in seven people — or 14 per cent of that group — leaving the core city for surrounding municipalities.

In contrast, just five per cent in that age group made the move from the suburbs back to the city in Toronto and Montreal, and four per cent in Vancouver.

"Individuals in this age group form an important demographic group because they are at an age when they are establishing families and buying first homes," the agency says. "As a result, they are a particularly sought-after 'clientele' for all municipalities, both central and outlying."

All three cities posted a net loss of people to the suburbs over that five-year period, with 95,700 people in that age group leaving Toronto for the suburbs and 27,500 moving in the other direction — a ratio of more than three to one.

The likelihood of moving to the suburbs varies widely depending on people's social and economic characteristics, Statistics Canada says.

New parents, people with college or bachelor's degrees and those with after-tax family incomes of $70,000 to $99,999 were most likely to move, the agency found.

Family income appears to be a major factor, with Montreal families in that income bracket five times more likely to move to the suburbs than those with incomes of $20,000 or less.

Family status is another big influence, Statistics Canada says, and in all three cities, people who became first-time parents between 2001 and 2006 were among the most likely to leave the central municipality. In Vancouver, 27 per cent of new parents left the city for the suburbs, compared to just eight per cent of those living alone.
© Copyright (c) Canwest News Service

Read more: http://www.ottawacitizen.com/news/Pa...#ixzz0qHksHorU

[RTWAP]

Originally Posted by c_speed3108

As reported in the Ottawa Citizen Newspaper.

That's what my wife and I did. Schools are better. Streets are safer. And having a full-fenced back yard is a huge plus.

[waterloowarrior]

link to the article
http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/11-008-.../11159-eng.htm

[phil235]

Originally Posted by RTWAP

That's what my wife and I did. Schools are better. Streets are safer. And having a full-fenced back yard is a huge plus.

Those may be your perceptions (admittedly shared by many) but I'm not sure they can be stated as fact. We live downtown, and I'd challenge you to demonstrate that your street safer than ours. I actually find our street safer than my parents' suburban street, as unlike their street, drivers are actually expecting to see pedestrians and typically take more care. As well, there are people on the street at all hours. As for schools and back yards, my kids' school is extremely good. And we also have a full-fenced back yard.

We just opted to spend our money on a smaller house in exchange for the convenience of having amenities within walking distance. And I think that will only become more valuable when my kids are older and they are looking for things to do and jobs. There are tonnes of options within easy reach by foot or on transit.

I know first hand what it is to grow up in the suburbs, and I think there are at least as many drawbacks as pluses. Despite the figures, I think that is becoming more apparent to many people.

[Uhuniau]

Originally Posted by phil235

Those may be your perceptions (admittedly shared by many) but I'm not sure they can be stated as fact. We live downtown, and I'd challenge you to demonstrate that your street safer than ours.

I would, too. As you note, suburban drivers are - how to put this diplomatically? - idiots.

I'm astonished too that no one has yet noticed that most murders (not sure about other crime, violent or otherwise) happen in the inner suburbs, the post-war, but inside-the-Greenbelt swaths of banality.

[eternallyme]

At least in a mid-sized city like Ottawa, the "schools are better" argument holds no water, since they are the same school board and same opportunities (whether you choose a public or private school). You could easily live in the suburbs and go to a downtown school or vice versa (although you would need a car or have a fairly long bus ride). Also I disagree about the suburbs being safer than downtown. The older inner suburbs do have the highest crime rate in many cases. In the bigger cities, that may be the case though.

It is just a matter of whether they want the backyards and space for a cheaper price or not.

[RTWAP]

Originally Posted by phil235

Those may be your perceptions (admittedly shared by many) but I'm not sure they can be stated as fact. We live downtown, and I'd challenge you to demonstrate that your street safer than ours. I actually find our street safer than my parents' suburban street, as unlike their street, drivers are actually expecting to see pedestrians and typically take more care. As well, there are people on the street at all hours. As for schools and back yards, my kids' school is extremely good. And we also have a full-fenced back yard.

It's a matter of personal experience. In our old neighbourhood, the neighbour's 2 year-old found a used needle on their front steps one morning. That's not an easy thing to get over. And drivers were much more dangerous in our old neighbourhood. Commuters would use the side streets to try to beat the traffic stuck at lights. I'm not a fan of the suburban street grid, but it does tend to keep out through traffic.

I'm sure there are neighbourhoods with great schools and fully-fenced back yards, but not in our price range. We paid less than 20% more to move and got the following:

• Closer to the transitway
• 4 times bigger lot
• 3 times as much floorspace
• Up to date house (modern kitchen, etc.)

Originally Posted by phil235

We just opted to spend our money on a smaller house in exchange for the convenience of having amenities within walking distance. And I think that will only become more valuable when my kids are older and they are looking for things to do and jobs. There are tonnes of options within easy reach by foot or on transit.

That's the single biggest thing we miss. But getting that, plus the other quality of life things we wanted would have meant a neighbourhood along Richmond/Wellington, and they were out of our price range. But things aren't so bad. We have a great neighbourhood park, a big library, and 2 outdoor rinks, and a skate park. All within easy walking distance. And the park is on the capital pathway system for easy biking.

Originally Posted by phil235

I know first hand what it is to grow up in the suburbs, and I think there are at least as many drawbacks as pluses. Despite the figures, I think that is becoming more apparent to many people.

There are suburbs and there are suburbs. Painting them all with the same brush is like saying all downtown neighbourhoods are like the worst examples of public housing. There are certainly suburbs I wouldn't want to live in.

[RTWAP]

Originally Posted by Uhuniau

I would, too. As you note, suburban drivers are - how to put this diplomatically? - idiots.

I'm astonished too that no one has yet noticed that most murders (not sure about other crime, violent or otherwise) happen in the inner suburbs, the post-war, but inside-the-Greenbelt swaths of banality.

In my experience, drivers are worse the further they get from home. The suburban drivers in my suburban neighbourhood are much better than the commuters (theoretically suburban) in my previous downtown neighbourhood.

And crime is worse in poor areas. And the poorest areas we have are generally public housing complexes, which tend not to have been built downtown. But where there are such neighbourhoods downtown, they suck even worse.

[RTWAP]

Originally Posted by eternallyme

At least in a mid-sized city like Ottawa, the "schools are better" argument holds no water, since they are the same school board and same opportunities (whether you choose a public or private school). You could easily live in the suburbs and go to a downtown school or vice versa (although you would need a car or have a fairly long bus ride).

The public board is eliminating choice in schools. You go to the one in your neighbourhood. That's it. One of the arguments for restricting choice is that it prevents sorting by economic status. In a socio-economically mixed neighbourhood, the wealthier families can afford to get their kids to a better school and the poorer families can't. Which just makes the school worse. Which makes more wealthier families pull their kids out. Etc. etc. etc. And when you take a look at the best teachers, how many of them want to spend their time struggling to get disadvantaged kids up to average instead of teaching in a school with high parental involvement and good resources?

I know the neighbourhood school for my old house was bad enough that nobody would want to send their kids there if they had a choice.

[Acajack]

Although families moving to the suburbs does deprive the city centre of some vitality and increases costs (less density = more expensive service delivery), in the case of cities like Ottawa and Gatineau where the vast majority of suburban areas are fully merged with the central city, the effect is nowhere near as bad as it could be.

At least it is not like other cities where suburbs are totally independent entities (often rich enclaves) whose residents don't pay a single penny to the central city in taxes.

Though some may not agree, including places like Orleans, Kanata and Barrhaven within the limits of the city of Ottawa was a good move. Although the innermost core of Ottawa is indeed gentrifying, there are many, reasonably-large inner ring areas of the former city of Ottawa that are in some difficulty and are becoming "pauperized". It is good for Ottawa that this trend (perhaps inexorable in a growing diverse city?) is being offset by both healthy gentrification in the inner core and the usual growth in affluent suburban areas.

Under the old municipal structure, there would today be more of an imbalance in what would be the city of Ottawa between the struggling "ring" and the rejuvenating core.

[Brainbug]

I agree with RTWAP:

It is a personal choice whether you want to:

1. Live close to work/amenities (assuming you work in the core) or
2. Have a lower cost house with more space, but deal with transit

As with anywhere you decide to live, it is up to you to balance your needs (price/space/quality of the neighbourhood)

As for the drivers, drugs etc... There are areas both downtown and in the suburbs you need to worry about, the only benefit I've seen to downtown is that it has defined areas where these things seem to be allowed to occur. B&E also doesn't seem to be as much of a problem due to population density and the potential to be seen, but I have no facts to back either of these up.

I live close to the core, but then again I have no kids so I don't understand the desire to have a 3400 sqft house with a front and back yard. A terrace and a park down the street do me just fine.

Acajack, interesting point, I never considered those implications. I just viewed it as the city having a large deficit with upcoming expenses (water mains, roads) and the suburbs (Gloucester, Nepean) having large surpluses.

[phil235]

Originally Posted by RTWAP

It's a matter of personal experience. In our old neighbourhood, the neighbour's 2 year-old found a used needle on their front steps one morning. That's not an easy thing to get over. And drivers were much more dangerous in our old neighbourhood. Commuters would use the side streets to try to beat the traffic stuck at lights. I'm not a fan of the suburban street grid, but it does tend to keep out through traffic.

I'm sure there are neighbourhoods with great schools and fully-fenced back yards, but not in our price range. We paid less than 20% more to move and got the following:

• Closer to the transitway
• 4 times bigger lot
• 3 times as much floorspace
• Up to date house (modern kitchen, etc.)

That's the single biggest thing we miss. But getting that, plus the other quality of life things we wanted would have meant a neighbourhood along Richmond/Wellington, and they were out of our price range. But things aren't so bad. We have a great neighbourhood park, a big library, and 2 outdoor rinks, and a skate park. All within easy walking distance. And the park is on the capital pathway system for easy biking.



There are suburbs and there are suburbs. Painting them all with the same brush is like saying all downtown neighbourhoods are like the worst examples of public housing. There are certainly suburbs I wouldn't want to live in.

I do agree that you can't generalize about suburbs, as there are considerable differences between them. However the same principle applies to streets - I've never seen any evidence that suburban streets are generally safer. In fact, those of the Jane Jacobs school would adamantly argue the opposite. My point is that you can't make the statement that "the streets are safer" in the suburbs.

As far as social problems such as drug use are concerned, those tend to follow income levels. And there are recent studies in the United States that conclude that the suburbs are becoming poorer with time. Rising oil prices will only exacerbate that phenomena in the long term. There are obviously variables from city to city and suburb to suburb, but the priciple factors causing the trend are similar in most cities. And on that basis, it is a logical conclusion that if income levels in the suburbs (generally) continue on the current trend, social issues will become more prevalent. The suburbs are already clearly the locale of choice for grow-ops, and those definitely do not make for good neighbours.

On the bright side, I expect that suburban neighbourhoods like yours well-served by transit and close to amenities will do quite well.

[Cntrtwnr]

My wife and I have a little one, she's 9 months old...and we are frequently asked when we're moving from Centretown (Florence/lyon). We are quite happy where we are, and it's surprising to those that live in the suburbs to hear how quiet the traffic is after the rush of commuters has left. My wife runs into many parents in the neighbourhood, at the parks...in fact there are 4 families beside us all with kids under 5yrs.

Those that live outside the city have preconceived notions of what "happens downtown"..... I lived in a townhouse in Orleans for 8yrs..they were great years for sure, met some great neighbours...but i could never go back to the commute and vehicle centric living. I'm already walking the dog with my daughter while people are still fighting their way down lyon....i love it.

There's crime everywhere, it might surprise some to learn what crimes happen where. http://spotcrime.com/on/ottawa

[m0nkyman]

Originally Posted by Cntrtwnr

My wife and I have a little one, she's 9 months old...and we are frequently asked when we're moving from Centretown (Florence/lyon). We are quite happy where we are, and it's surprising to those that live in the suburbs to hear how quiet the traffic is after the rush of commuters has left. My wife runs into many parents in the neighbourhood, at the parks...in fact there are 4 families beside us all with kids under 5yrs.

Those that live outside the city have preconceived notions of what "happens downtown"..... I lived in a townhouse in Orleans for 8yrs..they were great years for sure, met some great neighbours...but i could never go back to the commute and vehicle centric living. I'm already walking the dog with my daughter while people are still fighting their way down lyon....i love it.

There's crime everywhere, it might surprise some to learn what crimes happen where. http://spotcrime.com/on/ottawa

I live pretty much one block from you (Florence/Kent). I've got a seven month old boy, and I think this is a great neighbourhood for families!

[miketoronto]

I would take that study with a grain of salt, because Toronto and Montreal's city limits now include vast swaths of older suburban areas, which offer very large lots and nice houses.

I know for a fact that in Toronto's case, the inner city is seeing a rebirth of families with kids, and it is in fact the older suburban areas that are seeing families flee to the outer suburbs. Often this is because people can get larger homes for a cheaper price in the outer suburbs.

So I don't think people should look at this study as people are shunning the city lifestyle. In most cases, people living in the new suburbs, actually have smaller lots and more dense housing than if they opted for the more close in older homes.
It basically does amount to cost, at least in Toronto's case. In Montreal's case I think it has more to do with Montreal having a lot of multi-family houses. When I was on a tour last year for school in Montreal, the lady talking to us about urban planning issues said that hte multi-family houses really does increase the amount of people that leave the core once they have kids.
Where in Toronto, most of the inner city housing is single family homes. So there is not as much of a reason to flee, unless you can't afford the $700,000 price tag for the home

But overall, many people just always are looking for the new and think it is better. We know someone who passed up a really really nice house in my subdivision with a huge yard, lots of room, and only 5 minutes from their work, for a house which is 45 minutes away from work, has almost no yard space, and is in a much denser subdivision on the edge of the metro region. They did this because they felt it was more classy to live in a new area on the edge, than in a suburb that is 40 years old. So new sells in a lot of cases.

And another reason is older residents just are not selling. Try getting into my subdivision and you could wait a while, as people have been here for 30 or 40 years and they are not planning on moving. This means no room for new families. And the couple houses that have been sold, have sold for almost $500,000, and they are not large homes. For that price people can get a house double the size, 20 east of here. But they also don't have the features my area does, like having a major mall 5 minutes away, 24 hour bus service, two hospitals 2 minutes away, a university campus and a college campus 5 minutes away, or a subway station 5 minutes away. You pay for that. Not to mention the people in the outer suburbs pay a mint to travel into the city everyday for work. Transit passes in the outer burbs can cost anywhere from $250.00-$300.00 a month. Plus your car expenses.