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  #61  
Old Posted Feb 9, 2017, 6:21 PM
McBoo McBoo is offline
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Originally Posted by Mikemike View Post
Also, I wonder whether the death of the PC party might shift some voters to the NDP- and whether more liberal votes night shift to the NDP in an attempt to avoid a WRP government.

I've happily voted PC in the past but it's unlikely I will vote wild rose/Kenney left until it shifts centrist again, or the NDP goes farther left than WRP is right.
Than-Q. The, "right of centre parties polled over 50% so merging them will lead to victory" argument is simplistic and specious.

If a merged party looks more WRP than PC (and if Jason Kenney wins it will regardless), lots of progressives will flee.
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  #62  
Old Posted Feb 10, 2017, 4:35 PM
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Agreed. Half of Albertans want the PC and Wildrose to merge. But each parties' public support hovers around 20-30%. Clearly these people only want the merger to occur on their own party's terms.
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  #63  
Old Posted Feb 10, 2017, 6:42 PM
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People like to imprint what they think a party is/will be on to them, and it inflates numbers.
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  #64  
Old Posted Mar 5, 2017, 10:38 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mikemike View Post
Also, I wonder whether the death of the PC party might shift some voters to the NDP- and whether more liberal votes night shift to the NDP in an attempt to avoid a WRP government.

I've happily voted PC in the past but it's unlikely I will vote wild rose/Kenney left until it shifts centrist again, or the NDP goes farther left than WRP is right.
Ironically, I'd say the old core of Liberal voters in this province have actually made the difference in the last two elections. First, by abandoning the Liberals en-masse to prevent the WRP from winning and electing Redford, and then by going even harder to the NDP (along with many moderate former PC voters and the existing NDP base).

At this point there aren't many more Liberals to tap out. They got like 4% in the last election (including my own vote in Edmonton-Centre, one of the two ridings in the province where they finished in the top two).
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  #65  
Old Posted Mar 6, 2017, 1:09 AM
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Originally Posted by 240glt View Post
It'll be Calgary and the rural areas that elect the next government, so it'll be back to that again too
Calgary has always been the deciding factor in provincial elections. Edmonton will vote left of center and form the official opposition (until the NDP took power in the next election). Rural alberta (including the lake of fire ridings in SE Alberta) will vote conservative either PC or WRP. Calgary gets to be king maker in a divided right world.

What has not ever happened is an election where Edmonton and Calgary vote for the same party and rural AB votes for the official opposition. The closest we ever got was the Redford election.

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Originally Posted by MalcolmTucker View Post
So pessimistic. I think the NDP have even odds. Perhaps better against a united right. even better against a united right that can't run afoul of the nonparty political actor scene on the right, which is just off the deep end right now.
The future of the AB NDP party in power depends heavily on successful construction of three major pipeline projects: (1) Trans Mountain, (2) Enbridge Line 3, (3) Energy East. If less than 2 pipelines are under construction by the 2019 election and the NDP pushes ahead with the Carbon Tax, they are toast. However if all three projects are under construction they will easily win the election.

The dark clouds on the horizon for the NDP include the coming court action on Trans Mountain and potential rejection of Energy East by the Trudeau Liberals. The difficult choice for the NDP will be if pipeline construction is stalled and they proceed with Climate Change action plan, it will be a turkey shoot for the united right.

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It'll depend if the United right can muzzle their crazies and stay on point.
I would say the same thing about the AB NDP. Further, Notley has to distance herself from both the provincial left and the federal leap manifesto crowds. What I could see happening is a permanent divide between the AB NDP and the Federal NDP parties. The federal wing wants to go far left because they have learned that a popular left of center federal NDP party will ensure a conservative majority.

Notley (the person) is a lot more pragmatic than the inner circle of the NDP lets on. I worry about the like of Ceci, Hoffman, Eggen, McCuaig-Boyd, and several of members of the back bench (Connelly, Drever, Jansen, Kazim come to mind). If we had more people like Notley and Mason; I think the province would be better off.

One thing Notley has not done is cast off the more radical members of the caucus in favour of more moderate members from the general public. The federal liberals have started down this path with the removal of both Dion and MacCallum. For instance, the Energy minister needs to go back to being a teacher (or at least in a role more suited to her talents) and the party needs to hire someone with better grasp of the industry to help out Notley.

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Originally Posted by Mikemike View Post
Also, I wonder whether the death of the PC party might shift some voters to the NDP- and whether more liberal votes night shift to the NDP in an attempt to avoid a WRP government.
Outside of Edmonton, I doubt there are many frmr PC voters that would shift to the NDP under a United Right. The bigger problem for the AB NDP voters will be rural and Calgary voters that voted NDP expecting a minority government, but won't make the same mistake again.
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  #66  
Old Posted Mar 6, 2017, 4:38 AM
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The Alberta NDP has a bit of a blueprint for success next door, with what the Saskatchewan NDP were able to do during the 1990s with Roy Romanow and the early days of Lorne Calvert. A centrist, third-way, fiscally conservative government. While Saskatchewan rejected the federal NDP and voted Reform, they kept re-electing Romanow, even in many rural areas. Admittedly, there was also a divided right in Saskatchewan at the time (the Liberals and PCs were both centre-right at that point). Notley is from the Peace Country and her father was an old-time rural NDPer. She comes from the Saskatchewan tradition, whereas many others in her party come from the urbanite, left-wing NDP tradition. I think the Alberta NDP is decidedly much closer to the federal party than the Saskatchewan NDP was during their times in government.

Calgary and Edmonton did vote for the government when the PCs were first elected in 1971, with rural Alberta having far more Social Credit holdouts. Calgary still elected a few SC MLAs, with Edmonton being a clean PC sweep.

It happened again in 2012 when Edmonton and Calgary voted PC, though most of the rural ridings did too.

2015 was actually the most clear-cut example of what you say has never happened. Calgary voted NDP, electing 14 MLAs from the party, Edmonton was a clean sweep, and the Wildrose won most rural ridings.
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  #67  
Old Posted Mar 6, 2017, 4:56 AM
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^ Just reposting this:

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Originally Posted by Hallsy's Toupee View Post
As for Notley, the irony is that the NDP under her is not your dad's socialist NDP anymore, her version is more akin to Tony Blair's New Labour or Lougheed's PCs. Her pro-oil, pro-pipeline stance is at odds with other NDP parties, and is likely making Pam Barrett spin in her grave
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  #68  
Old Posted Mar 6, 2017, 10:29 PM
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As my name suggests, I've got roots in Saskatchewan, so I'm familiar with how the NDP tradition of governing there and in Manitoba works (in the case of Sask, they were essentially the natural governing party of that province for half a century or more). For me, Notley is a part of the prairie NDP tradition that has always been rooted in pragmatism. Few people know that Tommy Douglas ran 17 consecutive balanced budgets, for instance. So, "my dad's NDP", when I think of that, is actually more in line with a Notley/Romanow/Gary Doer way of doing things than the "socialist NDP" stereotype. But because the NDP in this province has no real history of being a mainstream party, and with the relative inexperience of so many in the caucus and even cabinet, they do worry me a bit and lots of them do come across as being rather radical.
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  #69  
Old Posted Mar 6, 2017, 10:41 PM
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I find it interesting just how much heavier the voters of Edmonton swing than the rest of the province. Many people say we're more liberal, but IMO it's just that there's more of a willingness to vote for something different here.

Governments in this province over time have been: Liberal (1905-1921), UFA (1921-1935), Social Credit (1935-1971), PC (1971-2015) and NDP (2015-).

If governments were solely decided by Edmonton (looking at historical election results in our ridings), it would have been: Liberal (1905-1913), Conservative (1913-1921), Liberal (1921-1926), Conservative (1926-1935), Liberal (1935-1940), Independent Citizens Movement (coalition of Liberals and Conservatives and some UFAers) (1940-1944), Social Credit (1944-1971), PC (1971-1986), NDP (1986-1993), Liberal (1993-2001), PC (2001-2004), Liberal (2004-2008), PC (2008-2015), and NDP (2015-)

We're conservatively minded, in that historically there's been a reluctance to vote for radical, new parties, unlike the rest of the province. The United Farmers movement never gained steam here, as we continued voting for the old-line Liberals and Tories. We continued this pattern into the Social Credit years, voting Liberal and Tory until the more moderate Ernest Manning took over the government.

Perhaps this helps explain the fact that the Wildrose have never been a real factor here either.
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  #70  
Old Posted Mar 6, 2017, 11:04 PM
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I'm looking at the 2015 results, and I didn't quite realize just how poorly the Wildrose did in Edmonton.

Of the 19 city of Edmonton ridings, the Wildrose finished third everywhere but Centre, Mill Creek and Riverview, where they finished fourth, and Strathcona, where they didn't field a candidate at all.

Only in Ellerslie, McClung, Meadowlark and South West did they manage to crack double digits in support. Their best overall showing in the city was 13.97% in Ellerslie.

By comparison, the PCs finished second in every riding, apart from Centre where they were third behind the Liberals, managing double digits in every riding, and achieving nearly 1/3 of the vote in Whitemud with Stephen Mandel.
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  #71  
Old Posted Mar 7, 2017, 4:05 PM
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Originally Posted by BretttheRiderFan View Post
I find it interesting just how much heavier the voters of Edmonton swing than the rest of the province. Many people say we're more liberal, but IMO it's just that there's more of a willingness to vote for something different here.

Governments in this province over time have been: Liberal (1905-1921), UFA (1921-1935), Social Credit (1935-1971), PC (1971-2015) and NDP (2015-).

If governments were solely decided by Edmonton (looking at historical election results in our ridings), it would have been: Liberal (1905-1913), Conservative (1913-1921), Liberal (1921-1926), Conservative (1926-1935), Liberal (1935-1940), Independent Citizens Movement (coalition of Liberals and Conservatives and some UFAers) (1940-1944), Social Credit (1944-1971), PC (1971-1986), NDP (1986-1993), Liberal (1993-2001), PC (2001-2004), Liberal (2004-2008), PC (2008-2015), and NDP (2015-)

We're conservatively minded, in that historically there's been a reluctance to vote for radical, new parties, unlike the rest of the province. The United Farmers movement never gained steam here, as we continued voting for the old-line Liberals and Tories. We continued this pattern into the Social Credit years, voting Liberal and Tory until the more moderate Ernest Manning took over the government.

Perhaps this helps explain the fact that the Wildrose have never been a real factor here either.
I do think Edmonton is more centrist than the rest of the province, but what that means in terms of voting means being a lot more flexible as the parties and political scene changes. Voting centrist in Alberta is a moving target as the most viable centrist-ish part is constantly on the move.

Edmonton, and to a lesser extent the rural north have almost always been to the left of Calgary and rural south dating back to the early days of provincehood and who settled where. Although the province can often vote monolithically, I think the divisions we saw in the last provincial election were pretty consistent with how different parts of the province operate relative to each other ideologically.
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  #72  
Old Posted Mar 7, 2017, 4:16 PM
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Originally Posted by ciudad_del_norte View Post
I do think Edmonton is more centrist than the rest of the province, but what that means in terms of voting means being a lot more flexible as the parties and political scene changes. Voting centrist in Alberta is a moving target as the most viable centrist-ish part is constantly on the move.

Edmonton, and to a lesser extent the rural north have almost always been to the left of Calgary and rural south dating back to the early days of provincehood and who settled where. Although the province can often vote monolithically, I think the divisions we saw in the last provincial election were pretty consistent with how different parts of the province operate relative to each other ideologically.
Though you may be right, I'd also factor in that the PC party has been seen as pro-Calgary since at least the beginning of the Klein era. I think many Edmontonians have looked for an alternative that may be more equitable in wealth distribution.
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  #73  
Old Posted Mar 7, 2017, 4:47 PM
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Yup, Klein certainly didn't help the PCs fortune in the Edmonton and its hard not to notice the trend of the PCs in elections since him. Stelmach, who was supposed to bring representation of the northern part of the province to keep the PCs relevant past the Battle River, and then Redford who was supposed to represent the centrist nature of the PCs up against the emerging wild rose.

I think Klein is just as much a symptom as a cause of the political division. The PCs had already naturally consolidated their base in Calgary and much less so in Redmonton, that only made it easier for somebody like Klein to lead the party.
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  #74  
Old Posted Mar 7, 2017, 7:19 PM
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Originally Posted by ciudad_del_norte View Post
I do think Edmonton is more centrist than the rest of the province, but what that means in terms of voting means being a lot more flexible as the parties and political scene changes. Voting centrist in Alberta is a moving target as the most viable centrist-ish part is constantly on the move.

Edmonton, and to a lesser extent the rural north have almost always been to the left of Calgary and rural south dating back to the early days of provincehood and who settled where. Although the province can often vote monolithically, I think the divisions we saw in the last provincial election were pretty consistent with how different parts of the province operate relative to each other ideologically.
It's actually quite interesting how despite Edmonton being the capital, Calgary and its hinterlands have really called the shots for Alberta's politics for most of the province's history.
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  #75  
Old Posted Mar 24, 2017, 6:57 PM
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Everyone said the same thing about Trump's chances!

I'm not a fan of O'Leary, but what does make him more palatable is that he's socially very liberal: pro-feminist, pro-immigration, pro-LBGTQ (whatever the hell this acronym is now), pro-abortion rights, pro-marijuana etc whereas Trump has taken gun-toting Bible-thumping Republicanism even far to the right.
Ok I take this back - O'Leary is as much an idiot as Trump
http://edmontonjournal.com/news/poli...-offend-us-all

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But whether you like or loathe Notley and her policies, O’Leary’s tactics should give Albertans pause.

Either O’Leary is an ignoramus, who has no idea how the Constitution works, or he’s hoping to mislead voters who actually are that ignorant.

Canada is a confederation of provinces, which have control over their own budgets, their own resources, their own tax policies. Premiers are elected by the people of their provinces. They don’t report to the prime minister. The prime minister isn’t their boss.

A particular prime minister might not approve of the way Quebec runs its daycare program, or the way New Brunswick runs its school system or the way Saskatchewan operates its carbon capture initiative. But a prime minister doesn’t get to backseat drive, in areas of provincial jurisdiction. Nor does the House of Commons.

Alberta, in particular, fought furiously, for decades, to win control over its natural resources and its natural resource policy. Wherever you fall on the political spectrum, you should be wary of any would-be prime minister, from any party, who thinks that Ottawa should be calling the shots, and telling us how to run our own province.

“I can’t have her running the number one piston of economic growth in Canada into the ground,” O’Leary told his Newfoundland audience. “The transfer payments out of Alberta in the last 35 years funded practically every province. And it’s broken.”

So is that how a leading candidate for the Conservative Party of Canada leadership sees Alberta? As a cash cow, whose role it is to underwrite the rest of the country, without murmur — while he can threaten to cut off transfer payments here, if he doesn’t happen to agree with a provincial environmental or economic policy? Does he imagine the prime minister as the feudal overlord of Canada, and the provinces as vassal states, meekly tithing to Ottawa?
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  #76  
Old Posted Mar 24, 2017, 8:44 PM
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So O'leary acknowledges the fact that Alberta has been funding whole country for decades, and in the same conversation threatens to cut federal funds back into the province? What a complete douche bag, lost so much respect for this guy since he announced he is running for PC. In fact, I have zero respect for him now.
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  #77  
Old Posted Mar 25, 2017, 1:43 AM
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I would support Alberta leaving confederation if O'leary becomes prime minister.
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  #78  
Old Posted Mar 25, 2017, 3:10 PM
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Not my first choice, but at least he's somebody that doesn't panders to people tools like Paula Simons and her self righteous ilk who's first concern is having moral high ground.
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  #79  
Old Posted Mar 25, 2017, 7:30 PM
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Originally Posted by SHOFEAR View Post
Not my first choice, but at least he's somebody that doesn't panders to people tools like Paula Simons and her self righteous ilk who's first concern is having moral high ground.

Also known as a Leftest Libtard.

This is an example of their thinking.

1st: "911 dispatch , whats your emergency?"

2nd : "Ahh ya , ahhh someone was just run over down at our protest."

1st: " Someone has been run over? How did that happen?"

2nd: " We were standing in the road blocking traffic protesting conservatism and anyone who wont listen to us Liberals and buddy just starting driving forward"

1st : "You were standing in the road"

2nd: "Ya, and he starting reving his engine and we stood in front of his truck but he kept going and someone got run over."

1st : " So you were in the middle of the road, a guy start reving his engine coming towards you and you step in front of the vechile?"

2nd: "yes"



1st: click
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Last edited by Black Star; Mar 25, 2017 at 7:44 PM.
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  #80  
Old Posted Mar 25, 2017, 8:43 PM
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And scene... On one of the worst posts of the year!
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