Canadian Financial Markets Investments and Stock Trading Thread - Page 11

suburbanite · #**201** Posted **Mar 10, 2020, 3:45 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

You guys buying the dip. Jeez. It's still early. Lots more red days to go. Bear markets see 1000pt swings regularly while trending down. And given how inflated stocks were at the top, I think the correction is going to be larger than average.

If you're actually trading (not buy and hold investing), these markets are heaven. Doubled my RRSP portfolio in a month. Once a decade opportunity.

No point in encouraging an average passive retirement investor to try and time the bottom of the market. If you liked a stock at a 16 multiple two weeks ago, you probably still like it at 11 today. Don't regret that you didn't get it at 9 ten years from now. I don't see anything wrong with deploying something like 30% of your cash early on in the cycle.

I'm waiting for my buddy who works at one of the larger investment funds in the country to give me the green light that their CIO has unloaded the defensive positions. The guy is basically the macro god and I'll happily trust his instincts over mine.

Airboy · #**202** Posted **Mar 10, 2020, 4:28 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Acajack

Mine is in April so things are looking good for the moment.

We are talking with another Bank. A credit Union here that I have been dealing with for 40 years. Our Mortgage is with one of the big boys. Rates are good plus we get dividends at the end of the year. This year its about $2000.00 back.

As for stocks we are also talking, we are waiting until at least the end of the week then start buying.

Acajack · #**203** Posted **Mar 10, 2020, 4:37 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Airboy

We are talking with another Bank. A credit Union here that I have been dealing with for 40 years. Our Mortgage is with one of the big boys. Rates are good plus we get dividends at the end of the year. This year its about $2000.00 back.

As for stocks we are also talking, we are waiting until at least the end of the week then start buying.

Some lenders will let you renew up to 3-6 months early without penalties (or are willing to pay your penalties, if they want to lure you away from a competitor), allowing you to take advantage of lower rates now - assuming you think they're going nowhere but up.

WarrenC12 · #**204** Posted **Mar 10, 2020, 4:39 PM**

I cashed out a lot last year waiting for the inevitable recession or pullback.

Buying in is much more difficult, especially in this dramatic volatility we are seeing. I don't think there's a rush to try and catch the bottom of this.

Wait until COVID19 news at least stabilizes. There will be socio-political fallout from this in some of the countries that aren't nearly as stable as us or Western Europe. Just look at the strain on Italy already.

That said, I would get back in with stable blue chip dividend stocks. The dividend aristocrats list or something similar. They will get back to their long term averages.

WarrenC12 · #**205** Posted **Mar 10, 2020, 4:40 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Acajack

Some lenders will let you renew up to 3-6 months early without penalties (or are willing to pay your penalties, if they want to lure you away from a competitor), allowing you to take advantage of lower rates now - assuming you think they're going nowhere but up.

Ya most are hassling you 3 months out and will happily guarantee a rate today.

VANRIDERFAN · #**206** Posted **Mar 10, 2020, 4:47 PM**

Not looking at my investments at all.
Much easier on the stress indicator.

SteelTown · #**207** Posted **Mar 10, 2020, 5:17 PM**

My mortgage is up for renewal this June. I got a mortgage broker and was offered 2.99% a few weeks ago, and now today, it's down to 2.59% from Scotiabank. I think I'll wait a little longer as I think they'll lower the interest rates again.

It's unfortunate; however, I'm lucky my mortgage is up for renewal at this tumultuous time.

urbandreamer · #**208** Posted **Mar 11, 2020, 1:16 AM**

I love this choppy market: great for daytrading.

caltrane74 · #**209** Posted **Mar 11, 2020, 9:17 PM**

Just exited FAZ ..another $200 profit.

Will set up a weekend hedge again hopefully get the $2000 payoff I missed out on last weekend.

Its like free money. love it.

milomilo · #**210** Posted **Mar 11, 2020, 9:46 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

You guys buying the dip. Jeez. It's still early. Lots more red days to go. Bear markets see 1000pt swings regularly while trending down. And given how inflated stocks were at the top, I think the correction is going to be larger than average.

If you're actually trading (not buy and hold investing), these markets are heaven. Doubled my RRSP portfolio in a month. Once a decade opportunity.

If you are as good at market timing as you claim you are, that is great. But most people do not have this talent and will fail miserably if they try and time the market.

urbandreamer · #**211** Posted **Mar 12, 2020, 2:45 AM**

SPY 235 coming.

Truenorth00 · #**212** Posted **Mar 12, 2020, 2:36 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by milomilo

If you are as good at market timing as you claim you are, that is great. But most people do not have this talent and will fail miserably if they try and time the market.

You don't need to be scalpel precise. I sold most of my stocks and ETFs on Feb 24th after the Italy and South Korea news. And bought far OTM June puts. At that point volatility was still reasonably low so premiums were cheap. And my math was simple. Average recession has a 30-40% drop from peak to trough. Bought puts on the Dow, S&P 500, country indices (including the TSX) that correspond to that amount. And about 25% OTM on airlines, hotels and theme parks expiring in May and June.

It was easy to see that nobody in Canada or the US was taking this seriously at all. And it was pretty clear that at least the US was going to be Italy in 3 weeks. I have said this in other forums before (for example on electric cars): people are clueless about exponential growth. And they just can't see it coming. That makes for great investment opportunities.

It sucks and is actually kinda sad that I was correct. But I fully expected Trump to utterly fumble the response. The great irony here is that the market would have been better if he had focused on public health and not the market.

Truenorth00 · #**213** Posted **Mar 12, 2020, 2:37 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by urbandreamer

SPY 235 coming.

SPY 220. VIX 100. Next week.

LakeLocker · #**214** Posted **Mar 12, 2020, 2:40 PM**

How probable is it that the markets will shut down for several weeks like they did in China?

If so expect it my the 20th.

Truenorth00 · #**215** Posted **Mar 12, 2020, 2:43 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by LakeLocker

How probable is it that the markets will shut down for several weeks like they did in China?

If so expect it my the 20th.

This isn't China. Their market went up while 700 million were at home. Manipulated bullshit.

milomilo · #**216** Posted **Mar 12, 2020, 3:13 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

You don't need to be scalpel precise. I sold most of my stocks and ETFs on Feb 24th after the Italy and South Korea news. And bought far OTM June puts. At that point volatility was still reasonably low so premiums were cheap. And my math was simple. Average recession has a 30-40% drop from peak to trough. Bought puts on the Dow, S&P 500, country indices (including the TSX) that correspond to that amount. And about 25% OTM on airlines, hotels and theme parks expiring in May and June.

It was easy to see that nobody in Canada or the US was taking this seriously at all. And it was pretty clear that at least the US was going to be Italy in 3 weeks. I have said this in other forums before (for example on electric cars): people are clueless about exponential growth. And they just can't see it coming. That makes for great investment opportunities.

It sucks and is actually kinda sad that I was correct. But I fully expected Trump to utterly fumble the response. The great irony here is that the market would have been better if he had focused on public health and not the market.

Honestly, good for you if you can do that (I'm not being sarcastic if it sounds that way).

As I'm sure you know though, all research points to humans being terrible at timing the markets, they will often do worse than a random number generator and almost always be better off just keeping their money in bonds and index funds.

I know the market behaves in ways I do not expect. I feel I have a good eye for bullshit (I totally knew Bitcoin was a massive scam the whole way through), but have been constantly amazed by how well the stock market has done throughout all of Trump's crap. If I'd have trusted my instinct and bet against Trump for the last three years, I'd be a lot poorer. Betting against him now for me probably would not offset that.

SFUVancouver · #**217** Posted **Mar 12, 2020, 3:45 PM**

Rather a surreal experience to see this all play out, with my phone buzzing an update as stocks on my watchlist drop 10% like dominoes. I feel rather prescient (and extremely lucky) to have exited Bombardier back in January when it was still in the $1.70 range, and to have exited several positions a few weeks ago to deleverage myself after the first big dip, all of which are now down 30%-50%. On the other hand, I was planning on buying my first home this spring and using my RRSP for the downpayment... not likely to be possible now for the foreseeable future, unfortunately.

milomilo · #**218** Posted **Mar 12, 2020, 3:58 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by SFUVancouver

Rather a surreal experience to see this all play out, with my phone buzzing an update as stocks on my watchlist drop 10% like dominoes. I feel rather prescient (and extremely lucky) to have exited Bombardier back in January when it was still in the $1.70 range, and to have exited several positions a few weeks ago to deleverage myself after the first big dip, all of which are now down 30%-50%. On the other hand, I was planning on buying my first home this spring and using my RRSP for the downpayment... not likely to be possible now for the foreseeable future, unfortunately.

Yeah same, I'm certainly not keen on cashing out my US stock market etf right now!

Innsertnamehere · #**219** Posted **Mar 12, 2020, 4:11 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by SteelTown

My mortgage is up for renewal this June. I got a mortgage broker and was offered 2.99% a few weeks ago, and now today, it's down to 2.59% from Scotiabank. I think I'll wait a little longer as I think they'll lower the interest rates again.

It's unfortunate; however, I'm lucky my mortgage is up for renewal at this tumultuous time.

Scotia ehome has 2.29 right now.

Truenorth00 · #**220** Posted **Mar 12, 2020, 4:38 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by milomilo

Honestly, good for you if you can do that (I'm not being sarcastic if it sounds that way).

As I'm sure you know though, all research points to humans being terrible at timing the markets, they will often do worse than a random number generator and almost always be better off just keeping their money in bonds and index funds.

I know the market behaves in ways I do not expect. I feel I have a good eye for bullshit (I totally knew Bitcoin was a massive scam the whole way through), but have been constantly amazed by how well the stock market has done throughout all of Trump's crap. If I'd have trusted my instinct and bet against Trump for the last three years, I'd be a lot poorer. Betting against him now for me probably would not offset that.

Generally, I would agree. You can't time the market. But when the market was at all time highs while 700 million people in China were quarantined, that's some bullshit that you can call out right there. I started hedging then. When Milan got hit I knew the game was over. It's Italy's commercial centre. Hourly flights to London, Paris, Zurich and Frankfurt. I knew it was getting. And South Korea the same weekend too. That was prompted me to drop everything like a hot potato on Feb 24th and go full bear.