Broadway Corridor Updates

[officedweller]

I think it's okay.
The recess at the podium separates it from the tower nicely.
the different treatments on the tower seems to align with the various angled planes.

[logan5]

I found some population figures for the "Downtown" neighbourhood (that would be the downtown peninsula minus the West End) stretching from 1991 to 2011. This was the peak construction years for the condo boom in downtown Vancouver.

In 1991 the population of downtown Vancouver was only 8880 people, but grew rapidly with the development of the Expo Lands and the industrial lands of Yaletown and Coal Harbour, plus other areas in between. Fast forward 20 years later, Downtown Vancouver grew to a population of 54 690. A whopping 45 000 person increase in an area of only 3.8 square km's.

I bring those numbers up because I think they can be reliably used to gauge the population growth of the Broadway Corridor over the next 25 years, and why I think the CoV's estimate of 50 000 is way under what the reality will be.

I'll explain why I think this...

When the condo boom in Downtown Vancouver started in the early 90's, there was not a lot there to attract people to actually live there. There was no seawall lined with beautiful landscaping and parks, no shopping streets. You had dirty waterfronts, a huge empty former industrial area in the Expo lands, and gritty industrial areas like Yaletown, where prostitutes would work. Yet because downtown Manhattan style living was so in demand, people were willing to move into rough areas. Consequently, you had a small area of 3.8 square km's grow by 45 000 people in just 20 years.

Now fast forward again to 2023.

The amenities you have along the Broadway Corridor are vastly superior to what downtown Vancouver had starting in the 90's. You have a complete downtown peninsula at your doorstep with all the restaurants, shopping, and nightlife you could ask for, along with many km's of beautiful seawall to walk or bike ride on. The Broadway Corridor itself has already established fantastic neighbourhoods like Mt. Pleasant and Kits, that offer shopping and bar/resto along Main Street, West 4th, and South Granville. Most importantly (and this is huge) you have a subway connecting these great neighbourhoods, as well as connecting you to the burgeoning Central Broadway Business District. A subway station has a huge impact on growth patterns. The Expo Line just doesn't connect downtown the way the Broadway Line will connect the Broadway Corridor.

So given the advanced state of the Broadway Corridor vs Downtown Vancouver (circa 1991- 2011), here are my population growth projections for the next 25 years...

The Broadway Corridor planning area is 8.6 square km's, which is more than twice the size of Downtown Vancouver - 3.8 square km's. Using the growth rate of Downtown Vancouver's 3.8 square km's (1991 - 2011), I project that the Broadway Corridor will grow by 90 000 people in the next 25 years. Obviously well above the 50 000 estimate over 30 years the City published. It sounds like a huge number, but it's not unprecedented as I've shown above, and the demand for a "downtown" lifestyle has only grown, as the city has grown.

https://vancouver.ca/files/cov/socia...e-downtown.pdf
https://vancouver.ca/files/cov/broad...ea-profile.pdf

[teriyaki]

It can't grow to that level if the building density doesn't allow for that sort of growth though? Agreed that the potential and demand is certainly ripe and we can't afford to underbuild and mess it up.

[mcj]

Originally Posted by teriyaki

It can't grow to that level if the building density doesn't allow for that sort of growth though? Agreed that the potential and demand is certainly ripe and we can't afford to underbuild and mess it up.

If we underbuild, then the Broadway corridor has all the conditions to become the most expensive area in the city. Guess that could be good or bad whether or not you've made investments in the area.

[chowhou]

Originally Posted by logan5

I bring those numbers up because I think they can be reliably used to gauge the population growth of the Broadway Corridor over the next 25 years, and why I think the CoV's estimate of 50 000 is way under what the reality will be.

I'm going to be a bit more reductionist in my analysis:

People are begging to live anywhere right now. If you build it, they will come. I personally know people dropping close to 7 figures on townhouses in Langley and 1BRs in Metrotown.

Broadway will grow as fast as the city will allow it to, and no slower. If the CoV says that it's going to be 50k, and they allow only 50k, then it's going to be 50k.

If the CoV allowed it to be 200k it would be 200k.

[Migrant_Coconut]

How likely is it that Central Broadway fills 100% of the Plan's maximum density in thirty years? Even downtown hasn't managed that.

If it doesn't, there's nothing stopping City Hall from making a new plan sometime around 2052 (or before that); in the meantime, case-by-case spot rezoning is always a thing, and a 50k increase is already fairly conspicuous.

[Changing City]

Originally Posted by logan5

I found some population figures for the "Downtown" neighbourhood (that would be the downtown peninsula minus the West End) stretching from 1991 to 2011. This was the peak construction years for the condo boom in downtown Vancouver.

...

The Broadway Corridor planning area is 8.6 square km's, which is more than twice the size of Downtown Vancouver - 3.8 square km's. Using the growth rate of Downtown Vancouver's 3.8 square km's (1991 - 2011), I project that the Broadway Corridor will grow by 90 000 people in the next 25 years. Obviously well above the 50 000 estimate over 30 years the City published. It sounds like a huge number, but it's not unprecedented as I've shown above, and the demand for a "downtown" lifestyle has only grown, as the city has grown.

By 2041 I'll be dead, and I think you'll be dead wrong.

As you said, there were only 8,800 people living in the Downtown Local Area in 1991, and the area added 8,500 in the next 5 years, 10,500 to 2002, 15,400 in the next five years, then 11,300 and 7,300 in the following five years. (Another 7,700 were added to 2021). The population density went from 24/ha to 165/ha. over 25 years from 1991 to 2016.

Most of those people were added to Downtown South (one and 2-storey commercial buildings), the Expo Lands (partly cleared former rail yards) and Coal Harbour (also cleared rail lands). Some of the projects have developed at much higher densities than any contemplated in the Broadway Plan. The Fairmont Pacific Rim was 16 FSR, Jameson House was 23, as are the Capitol Residences, while the Residences at the Hotel Georgia were over 30 FSR.

Here's 1982 (with around 6,300 people) to 2020 (69,000).

[changing vancouver]


The Broadway Corridor on the other hand already had 78,000 residents in 2016, at a density of over 94/ha. That confirms that, as we know, a lot of the corridor has significant developed density, rather than cleared or low-density commercial development opportunities. Adding another 50,000 population to the corridor would take it to 154/ha in 2041, which is getting very close to the Downtown density in 2016.

[logan5]

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

How likely is it that Central Broadway fills 100% of the Plan's maximum density in thirty years? Even downtown hasn't managed that.

There is 0 chance that it reaches 100%. Every residential property, except for a few heritage homes around City Hall, are eligible to be rezoned to a higher density of at 4x the original density. The densities around the stations are between 8 and 10.5 FSR, so if there was a maximum build out, that would add at least (est.) 250 000 people. It's probly much higher than that, but it's better to use a conservative number.

[Migrant_Coconut]

Originally Posted by logan5

There is 0 chance that it reaches 100%. Every residential property, except for a few heritage homes around City Hall, are eligible to be rezoned to a higher density of at 4x the original density. The densities around the stations are between 8 and 10.5 FSR, so if there was a maximum build out, that would add at least (est.) 250 000 people. It's probly much higher than that, but it's better to use a conservative number.

If the Plan says 50k over the next 30 years, it's probably 50k; 75k at best. 250k would be well over 30 years from now, and likely under a new Plan.

[Changing City]

Here's another way of considering the possible growth under the Broadway Plan over the 25 years from 2016 to 2041. The Broadway Plan says around 50,000 in that period.

Metro 2050 avoids having municipal projections of growth, but it has future growth for the Burrard Peninsula (Vancouver, UEL, Burnaby and New Westminster combined). From 2016 to 2040 that plan says there will be 297,000 more people in that area. We know fom earlier reports to the GVRD Board that about 151,000 of that growth was expected in Vancouver, 27,000 in UEL, 89,000 in Burnaby, and 30,000 in New Westminster. So a third of all the growth in the City of Vancouver could be in the Broadway Corridor.

That seems completely reasonable (and maybe a bit ambitious). Downtown still has much anticipated development activity (NEFC for example), the West End more, there are major projects in River District, along the Cambie Corridor, around Joyce, Rupert and Renfrew stations, and at Jericho. Plus all those rental projects along arterials under new policy, and continued densification and infill from laneways etc, and along Kingsway, from the Grandview Plan, along East Hastings, etc. etc.

The Metro Vancouver population projection is pretty much in line with the Provincial population projection. Their projections are for Vancouver and UEL combined. They say that from 2016 to 2041 the population will grow a little more than Metro suggest, by 194,000. But they're anticipating 91,000 of that on Vancouver Westside, which includes UEL and Jericho, as well as half of Senakw, and some of the Broadway Corridor.

[FarmerHaight]

Originally Posted by Changing City

Here's 1982 (with around 6,300 people) to 2020 (69,000).

What an incredible contrast. I know some people miss the old Vancouver, but I can't help but think living on the downtown peninsula forty years ago would not have been nearly as interesting as it is today.

[Migrant_Coconut]

Yup, definitely an upgrade. Looks like we kept all the interesting buildings and tore down the infill.

[madog222]

Originally Posted by madog222

There is now a chain link fence around the site with what looks like dog friendly gates, bark mulch is being being laid in the centre.

I'm guessing Reliance has cancelled the 4 storey building and going back to the drawing board to build a tower. Up to 22 storeys is now allowed.


Oct 19 2022, my pic

Now after nine months of a dog park they are excavating.
Last month an amended development permit was issued so they must be proceeding with their original low-rise. https://plposweb.vancouver.ca/Public...ctId=186540133

July 25 2023, my pic. Smoke in the sky is from the 3rd alarm fire at 414 E 10th.

[Jimbo604]

Park over. Dog gone...it.

[giallo]

I saw movement there last week, and was happy to see it. It'll be a nice addition to the area.

[VancouverOfTheFuture]

wowza. 4 floors to 22 floors? thats a massive increase.

i always thought it was weird Broadway had buildings from the 1970s bigger/taller than the new ones. seemed backwards. Broadway has always been a massive destination and should have been zoned for it decades back.

[madog222]

Originally Posted by VancouverOfTheFuture

wowza. 4 floors to 22 floors? thats a massive increase.

i always thought it was weird Broadway had buildings from the 1970s bigger/taller than the new ones. seemed backwards. Broadway has always been a massive destination and should have been zoned for it decades back.

Nope, they seem to be sticking with the approved 5 storey. It also appears they have switched from strata to rental.

[GenWhy?]

Due to shadowing the City wouldn't grant a 22-storey. Maybe 15 if I recall from a similar site I'm on...

[s211]

Originally Posted by VancouverOfTheFuture

wowza. 4 floors to 22 floors? thats a massive increase.

i always thought it was weird Broadway had buildings from the 1970s bigger/taller than the new ones. seemed backwards. Broadway has always been a massive destination and should have been zoned for it decades back.

I wouldn't say it was entirely backward. It was largely just what the market would bear back in those days, based on investors owning relatively small plots of land and wishing to build what they could. I personally would not look back at the 70s and 80s with a 20's lens and judge.

[officedweller]

8 E Broadway (at Ontario Street)

I guess the office tower is dead.
This is purpose built rental - posted to Chard's twitter today, August 25, 2023.

Earlier this month, Chard submitted a rezoning application to the City of Vancouver that proposes
to bring 152 units of purpose-built rental housing to the southeast corner of E Broadway and Ontario Street.

https://charddevelopment.com/rezonin...-built-rental/

Previous office concept:


https://www.formosis.ca/projects/com...east-broadway/