The Big Atlantic Canada Statistics Thread

[mmmatt]

Hello Folks! I have decided to put my love of all things stats to use and make a thread for it...It will mainly be focused on NB and in particular Moncton, Fredericton and Saint John.

I am starting off with a few graphs but I will add more on a regular basis, so keep an eye out

I'll try to post my sources as best as possible (just click the link below the graph)...if you have any questions or corrections please let me know...I know the StatsCans website is very hard to navigate.

*Most Graphs are in Thousands* (65.5 = 65,500)

Population

Census Subdivision (City)

Source: StatsCan

Census Metropolitan Area / Census Agglomeration (Metro)

Source: StatsCan

Tourism

Hotel Nights Sold

Source: NB Tourism Dept. (Tourism Indicators Summary Report), NB Tourism Dept. (2012 Tourism Indicators)


Cruise Ship Passengers

Source: NB Tourism Dept. (Tourism Indicators Summary Report)

Airport Passengers

Source: Each Airports Annual Reoprts

Employment

Employment (Metro) (Moncton was only added to this one in 2011) (I used the number from Dec. of each year, except 2012)

Source: StatsCan (Tables : Table 5-1)

Employment (Economic Region) (I used the number from Dec. of each year, except 2012)

Source: StatsCan (Tables : Table 6-1)

Housing

Housing Starts (Economic Region) 2006-2011 (total units, includes apartments, condo units, detached houses etc)


Housing Starts (Economic Region) 2012 (total units, includes apartments, condo units, detached houses etc)


CMA/CA Apartment Vacancy Rate (Buildings of 3 or more units)







Sources: Statscan

Retail

3 "Big Mall" Stats

Source: http://www.cfretail.com/EN/PropertyS...earchMaps.aspx

Construction

CMA Building Permit Values

Source: Statscan

[mmmatt]

I added ER employment...

Also if anyone has an interesting stat they want me to post a graph for, please let me know!

[mylesmalley]

First off, fantastic idea for a thread!

Just wanted to point out that a bunch of your graphs aren't showing up.

[mmmatt]

Originally Posted by mylesmalley

First off, fantastic idea for a thread!

Just wanted to point out that a bunch of your graphs aren't showing up.

Thanks! And that is strange...is it the last ones? Cause Im trying out a different hosting site as Image Shack went all weird lately...

They are working for me so I dunno

Edit: nevermind...I just remembered my password for Photobucket...so Ill put them on there!

Edit: Done...let me know if there are any more issues!

[MonctonRad]

They all seem to be working for me now except for the CMA population graph. This is strange, because it was working before.

I agree with Myles, a good idea for a thread.

Do you have any data for employment income or per capita income per economic region? For some of these sets of stats, it might be interesting to see how we compare to Haligon.

[monctonian]

My contribution is below

[mmmatt]

Nice! Thanks Monctonian!

Just curious...is Property Guys.com considered "MLS" sales? As it seems they are gaining market share around here.

[monctonian]

Originally Posted by mmmatt

Nice! Thanks Monctonian!

Just curious...is Property Guys.com considered "MLS" sales? As it seems they are gaining market share around here.

I'll try to answer your question without getting too complicated.

PropertyGuys.com® is an advertising and marketing firm which charges fees to access their services. http://propertyguys.com/site/legal

(They also sell franchises - http://propertyguysfranchise.com/)

The ability to place real property on the Moncton MLS System® is available only to people who first are licensed by the New Brunswick Minister of Justice, Consumer Affairs Division and who second become members.
A member may place a property on the Moncton MLS System® even if the property is also being advertised on PropertyGuys.com®. If the property sells while on the Moncton MLS System®, the sale is reported and recorded in the system.

Sometimes a licensee representing a buyer client is involved in the sale of a property that is advertised on PropertyGuys.com®, but is not on the Moncton MLS System®. In this case, even though the licensed member was involved in the sale, the sale would not be recorded in the MLS System®.

[mmmatt]

Originally Posted by monctonian

I'll try to answer your question without getting too complicated.

PropertyGuys.com® is an advertising and marketing firm which charges fees to access their services. http://propertyguys.com/site/legal

(They also sell franchises - http://propertyguysfranchise.com/)

The ability to place real property on the Moncton MLS System® is available only to people who first are licensed by the New Brunswick Minister of Justice, Consumer Affairs Division and who second become members.
A member may place a property on the Moncton MLS System® even if the property is also being advertised on PropertyGuys.com®. If the property sells while on the Moncton MLS System®, the sale is reported and recorded in the system.

Sometimes a licensee representing a buyer client is involved in the sale of a property that is advertised on PropertyGuys.com®, but is not on the Moncton MLS System®. In this case, even though the licensed member was involved in the sale, the sale would not be recorded in the MLS System®.

I gotcha...so in other words if PropertyGuys was gaining market share every year than that could possibly change the number on your chart a bit. (aka possibly flat home sales instead of a slight decline since 2010). That said the first few months of the year don't tell the whole story as most homes are sold in the summer if I'm not mistaken.

[mmmatt]

I added airport passenger figures...I was unable to find the 2011 number for YFC...does anyone know it?

Also I put all the graphs on photobucket...so they should all be visible now hopefully!

[RyeJay]

Interesting thread. I would love to see this graphic data pertaining to the non-big three, especially the municipalities in northern New Brunswick -- just so we may see the broader context through which the province is going.

[JHikka]

That decline in SJ housing starts is pretty staggering. The Real Estate market has been pretty dead as of late as well.

[mmmatt]

Added apartment vacancy rates

Take the latest SJ rate with a grain of salt...its very abnormal when looking back at long term trends...and based on the numbers I follow it doesn't add up. There has not been much multiple construction in SJ in the last year (in fact the total # of units in the CMA went down from 8,578 to 8,521). And with apparent flat population growth that leads me to believe the vacancy rate should be stable.

In any event...here is CMHCs explanation of the latest numbers:

In the spring of 2012, the vacancy rate in Fredericton stood at 3.8 per cent, up from three per cent a year earlier. Steady in-migration continued to bolster demand for rental units, resulting in the lowest vacancy rate in the province. The balance between supply and demand, however, has been impacted by higher than average levels of construction activity, particularly during the last three years. Due to rapid development in the local rental market, the number of apartment units under construction last year in Fredericton was at a historically high level, with a monthly average of approximately 200 units maintained throughout the year. As a result, the addition of new units to the local rental market proceeded at a pace slightly ahead of what existing demand has been able to absorb, thereby, contributing to the higher vacancy rate.

In Greater Moncton, a similar trend was observed, as the expansion of the local rental supply has also outpaced demand in recent years. Combined construction activity in 2010 and 2011 accounted for the second highest two-year total for apartment starts in the region since 1980. As a result, the average monthly number of apartment units under construction during the second half of 2011 was just under 600 units. In contrast, between 2005 and 2009, the monthly average for the number of apartment units under construction was just over 200 units. Consequently, the increase in the supply of new units available to local consumers has progressed at a faster pace than the local market has been able to absorb, pushing the spring 2012 vacancy rate to five per cent, up from last year’s rate of 4.1 per cent.

In Saint John, the vacancy rate was up significantly, rising to 8.4 per cent. Compared to either Fredericton or Moncton, the expansion of the local rental universe has proceeded at a relatively modest pace in Saint John in recent years. In 2011, rental starts in the Saint John CMA were limited to 80 units. Favorable housing market conditions and a lack of population growth in Saint John, combined with the continued migration of people away from the downtown area towards current and expanding residential areas (particularly to the Kennebecasis River Valley), has curbed demand for rental units, leading to the higher vacancy rate in the spring of 2012.

[mmmatt]

Added stats on the "Big 3" Malls under a new heading of Retail...Cadillac Fairview recently came out with a beautiful new website filled with lots of nice graphics and interesting stats...so I figured I would bring the local highlights.

[Nashe]

Back on topic... nice interactive graph:

http://www.cbc.ca/nb/interactives/employment/

Holy seasonal influences, Batman. Look at those peaks and valleys.

[Taeolas]

Nice timing with those mall stats, just as 2 of the malls change ownership.

Should be interesting to see how they change in the coming years I'm sure.

[mmmatt]

Originally Posted by Taeolas

Nice timing with those mall stats, just as 2 of the malls change ownership.

Should be interesting to see how they change in the coming years I'm sure.

Unfortunately those stats are rare to come across so I'm not sure if we will be able to see the change over time...thats one thing that annoys me about statscan...no regional retail sales figures.

[q12]

Here is a scary statistic for you:

New Brunswick's jobless rates jumps to 11.6%

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-br...-rate-950.html

CBC News Posted: Nov 2, 2012 9:59 AM AT Last Updated: Nov 2, 2012 10:04 AM AT

New Brunswick's unemployment rate surged to 11.6 per cent in October after 600 jobs were lost last month, according to Statistics Canada.

The monthly labour force survey showed there were 2,100 fewer full-time jobs last month, while 1,600 part-time jobs were added. Overall, there were 600 fewer jobs in October, according to Statistics Canada.

October's unemployment rate of 11.6 per cent was up from 11 per cent in September.

And some more bad news:

New Brunswick's deficit nearly doubles to $356M

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-br...pdate-239.html

CBC News Posted: Nov 1, 2012 2:51 PM AT Last Updated: Nov 1, 2012 7:17 PM AT

Finance Minister Blaine Higgs blames extra deficit on shrinking revenue

New Brunswick’s projected deficit has almost doubled to $356 million because of falling government revenues, Finance Minister Blaine Higgs announced on Thursday.

[RyeJay]

Scary, but expected. The province should celebrate with a second Moncton High School relocation -- to Fredericton.

A good afterparty would be another round of business park expansion proposals, to ensure the downtowns of 'The Big 3' never grow. (Don't forget even more highways!)

If the party bill can't be paid: just blame the francophones.

[MonctonRad]

It's not all doom and gloom q12, the unemployment rate in Moncton fell to 7.1% from 7.2% and remains below the national average, but thanks for your concern.

In fact, since the Moncton economic region includes all of southeastern NB, including rural Kent County, I would wager that the unemployment rate for the Moncton CMA is considerably less than 7.1%, more likely in the 5.0-5.5% range.

The big issue is the stubborn provincial deficit, thanks mostly to the disastrous Shawn Graham government. To slay this beast will require reigning in government spending which will in turn mean even less economic growth. It's a vicious circle.