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  #2861  
Old Posted Aug 26, 2019, 5:02 PM
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Originally Posted by Crawford View Post
That's actually not true, though. Most Acela traffic is NYC-DC. There aren't particularly high Amtrak volumes anywhere but NY Penn, Philly, and DC.

And the CA corridor isn't analogous. The NE Corridor only works because NY is at the center, and NY is primarily transit-oriented. And the secondary CA cities are extremely sprawly and car-oriented, and impractical for HSR. There's no real market for Bakersfield, which doesn't have a corporate base, strong core, or transit orientation, where someplace like Wilmington or New Haven has all three attributes.
I didn't specify Acela but, yes, there are quite a few passengers who take Amtrak from Washington to BWI, Baltimore, Philadelphia, etc...

I expect quite a lot of trips from Fresno to San Jose. I also expect there will be some trips from both Palmdale and Bakersfield, where housing is significantly cheaper, to destinations in the LA Basin.
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  #2862  
Old Posted Aug 26, 2019, 5:09 PM
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Originally Posted by 202_Cyclist View Post
I expect quite a lot of trips from Fresno to San Jose. I also expect there will be some trips from both Palmdale and Bakersfield, where housing is significantly cheaper, to destinations in the LA Basin.
Why would sprawly, uncentered places like Fresno and San Jose, draw heavy train loads? I don't get it. What executive is spending $250 to travel between the two, requiring an Uber (which won't exist if the market crashes) on either end? How many Google or Apple execs are visiting Bakersfield, and why wouldn't they just drive or take a plane?
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  #2863  
Old Posted Aug 26, 2019, 5:14 PM
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Originally Posted by Crawford View Post
Why would sprawly, uncentered places like Fresno and San Jose, draw heavy train loads? I don't get it. What executive is spending $250 to travel between the two, requiring an Uber (which won't exist if the market crashes) on either end? How many Google or Apple execs are visiting Bakersfield, and why wouldn't they just drive or take a plane?
For the same reason people get up at 4 AM and commute 70 - 100 miles each way from the San Joaquin Valley. The average home price in Fresno is $243K. The average home price in Santa Clara County is $1,162M. That is a pretty big reason to commute via high-speed rail two or three days per week.

https://www.zillow.com/fresno-ca/home-values/
https://www.zillow.com/santa-clara-c...a/home-values/

I am sure we can do a similar exercise for average home price for Bakersfield vs. LA County.

Take a flight between Fresno and San Jose?
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  #2864  
Old Posted Aug 26, 2019, 5:44 PM
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Originally Posted by Crawford View Post
Why would sprawly, uncentered places like Fresno and San Jose, draw heavy train loads? I don't get it. What executive is spending $250 to travel between the two, requiring an Uber (which won't exist if the market crashes) on either end? How many Google or Apple execs are visiting Bakersfield, and why wouldn't they just drive or take a plane?
The same people who board the multiple flights every day from Fresno to the Bay Area.
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  #2865  
Old Posted Aug 26, 2019, 5:52 PM
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Originally Posted by 202_Cyclist View Post
For the same reason people get up at 4 AM and commute 70 - 100 miles each way from the San Joaquin Valley.
No. Super commuters are generally lower wage workers who endure hellish commutes for their families. They have nothing to do with executives taking HSR.

If you're implying that Google workers are gonna live in Fresno to supercommute to San Jose for $250 daily (plus Uber on each end, including a hellish Uber on the SJ end, as SJ isn't really proximate to techie job centers), I'm not sure what to say. It would be cheaper to just buy in Mountain View or Cupertino. Why is no one doing this now, where HSR exists?
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  #2866  
Old Posted Aug 26, 2019, 9:00 PM
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Also, the fare from Fresno or Merced to San Jose is not likely to be $250 round-trip. It will be a fraction of that. This LA Times article from 2015 notes that Acela and the high speed rail systems in Europe charge approximately 50 cents per mile. Fresno - San Jose is 150 miles, so this would be $75 one-way, $150 round-trip. As noted by the commenter above, employers would likely subsidize a portion of this cost, just as they now subsidize a portion of employees' monthly transit benefits and parking.

https://www.latimes.com/local/politi...510-story.html
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  #2867  
Old Posted Aug 27, 2019, 3:19 AM
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Originally Posted by 202_Cyclist View Post
Also, the fare from Fresno or Merced to San Jose is not likely to be $250 round-trip. It will be a fraction of that. This LA Times article from 2015 notes that Acela and the high speed rail systems in Europe charge approximately 50 cents per mile. Fresno - San Jose is 150 miles, so this would be $75 one-way, $150 round-trip. As noted by the commenter above, employers would likely subsidize a portion of this cost, just as they now subsidize a portion of employees' monthly transit benefits and parking.

https://www.latimes.com/local/politi...510-story.html
Even at just 50% subsidy that would mean the company is paying 1,500 dollars a month just for transportation.

If a company is willing to give an employee that kind of money every month chances are they are being paid enough to live near work.

Am I missing something here?
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  #2868  
Old Posted Aug 27, 2019, 7:12 PM
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Originally Posted by jtown,man View Post
Even at just 50% subsidy that would mean the company is paying 1,500 dollars a month just for transportation.

If a company is willing to give an employee that kind of money every month chances are they are being paid enough to live near work.

Am I missing something here?

Maybe one half of a wife/husband works in Fresno or Bakersfield and the other works in SF or LA. HSR makes a supercommute possible for someone who doesn't want to move.

There are many academic couples, for example, who teach at two different colleges that are a 1+ hour away from one another.
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  #2869  
Old Posted Aug 27, 2019, 7:32 PM
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And before someone makes some smart ass quip about why someone would want to move from Fresno or Bakersfield or the Central Valley it's important to remember that a lot of factors keep people in homes in their community, top of the list of which is financial, i.e. not being able to afford a home elsewhere.
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  #2870  
Old Posted Aug 27, 2019, 7:34 PM
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Originally Posted by jtown,man View Post
Even at just 50% subsidy that would mean the company is paying 1,500 dollars a month just for transportation.

If a company is willing to give an employee that kind of money every month chances are they are being paid enough to live near work.

Am I missing something here?
Yes-- I wouldn't expect people to commute via high speed rail every day. Perhaps two or three days per week. A 50% subsidy of a $150 round-trip fare for 2.5 days per week for 50 weeks is $9375. That seems like a pretty generous transit subsidy but maybe an employer would pay 1/4 of the cost of the high-speed rail commute.
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  #2871  
Old Posted Aug 27, 2019, 7:35 PM
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Originally Posted by Busy Bee View Post
And before someone makes some smart ass quip about why someone would want to move from Fresno or Bakersfield or the Central Valley it's important to remember that a lot of factors keep people in homes in their community, top of the list of which is financial, i.e. not being able to afford a home elsewhere.
And children attending schools and having a spouse employed in one location and the other partner employed in another city. As you mentioned, there are a lot of factors.
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  #2872  
Old Posted Aug 28, 2019, 9:23 PM
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Homeless vets might think otherwise.
Why is that? Part of the budget goes to helping our veterans.
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  #2873  
Old Posted Aug 28, 2019, 9:24 PM
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Invading military? Who would want to try and occupy this country with all the crazy armed people we have?
Is this sarcasm or do you really believe that the fact a big portion of our citizens have guns would stop a would be invading country?
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  #2874  
Old Posted Aug 28, 2019, 10:06 PM
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It's tongue and cheek, though in a purely theoretical sense I have no doubt it would be a deciding factor in an enemies hypothetical invasion strategy. Haven't you seen Red Dawn?
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  #2875  
Old Posted Aug 29, 2019, 4:45 AM
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It's tongue and cheek, though in a purely theoretical sense I have no doubt it would be a deciding factor in an enemies hypothetical invasion strategy. Haven't you seen Red Dawn?
I would guess any invasion from a foreign country on USA soil would mark WW3. Guns are no issue. We have nuclear weapons. This is one of my favorite quotes:

“I don’t know what weapons might be used in World War III. But there isn’t any doubt what weapons will be used in World War IV.”

That said I am done discussing the military. If you honestly believe our military should have its funding reduced to fund a transcontinental HSR system so it can be blown up than that speaks for itself and I only hope you never come near a position of power.
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  #2876  
Old Posted Aug 29, 2019, 1:28 PM
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Who are you talking to? The conversation's moved on in case you hadn't noticed. Maybe you need to take a cue from the shame of the nation and take comments like that "seriously but not literally".
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  #2877  
Old Posted Aug 30, 2019, 4:03 AM
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Not CAHSR specifically, but...

https://www.ktnv.com/news/high-speed...n-set-for-2020

Quote:
High-speed train to California back on track, construction set for 2020
Posted: 7:17 PM, Aug 27, 2019
Updated: 8:33 AM, Aug 28, 2019
By: Cinthia Maldonado - KNTV Las Vegas

Las Vegas is one step closer to having a high-speed train between the Las Vegas Strip and California.

On Tuesday, city and economic leaders at the Nevada Economic Development Conference talked about the railroad service that would connect more than 22 million people... (cont.)
The line is only going as far as Victorville for now, and there's no mention of it ultimately tying into CAHSR, but they expect construction to only take three years (I'm assuming most or all of the ROW already exists along I-15 and there will be far fewer properties to condemn).
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  #2878  
Old Posted Aug 30, 2019, 5:55 PM
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I really hope they get phase two done sooner than later. Once phase two reaches Palmdale this becomes a viable choice for me. Have friends in Palmdale/Lancaster. Very much looking forward to this.
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  #2879  
Old Posted Aug 30, 2019, 7:17 PM
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I really hope they get phase two done sooner than later. Once phase two reaches Palmdale this becomes a viable choice for me. Have friends in Palmdale/Lancaster. Very much looking forward to this.
I really think they should work on a new HSR line through the Cajon Pass first. I hope I am wrong but I predict this route will see weak ridership stopping the route in Victorville. Maybe this will speed up construction of HDC freeway as it would make more sense to build it all at once.
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  #2880  
Old Posted Aug 30, 2019, 8:49 PM
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Originally Posted by plutonicpanda View Post
I really think they should work on a new HSR line through the Cajon Pass first. I hope I am wrong but I predict this route will see weak ridership stopping the route in Victorville. Maybe this will speed up construction of HDC freeway as it would make more sense to build it all at once.
To my knowledge they are trying to align with HDC freeway to get to Palmdale. Long term they wanted to use the CHSR ROW from Palmdale down to LA. I don't think Cajon Pass has ever been in scope for this project due to cost.

The Virgin route seems highly dependent on CHSR for its success. The use case is very weak for Victorville. At least Palmdale has the option of switching to Metrolink. At that point it really isn't a time saver. I think without CHSR build out in SoCal Virgin Trains is going to struggle.

Now if BNSF, UP, MetroLink, Amtrak and Virgin Trains pooled resources on Cajon Pass to secure two higher speed and capacity ROWs maybe Cajon Pass comes into play. I haven't heard of any serious proposal for Cajon pass of any of those. If you have any info of Cajon pass being looked at I would love to read about it.
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