Winnipeg Population Growth Estimates

[Greco Roman]

Originally Posted by hexrae

Answer to my own question:
2006 Immigrate Manitoba Report

I can't access this link, it says "bad encrypt dictionary" and I have no idea what this means.

[hexrae]

I changed the link now, to the main HTML page (with yearly reports)

http://www2.immigratemanitoba.com/br...lications.html

[newflyer]

Originally Posted by hexrae

See newflyers post and look immediately below the "Winnipeg CMA" image.

Does anyone have any immigration stats bookmarked, for Manitoba and Winnipeg? (I'll look and see what I can find).

Don't ask me ...

I used image shack to post the picture .. and it added that stupid question about fish. (it was not a part of the city study, I assure you)

[DowntownWpg]

Newflyer,

Thank-you very much for the info you had put up back on the first page of this thread. I was always wondering about maps and the capital region.

So, the CMA is really a StatsCan thing for population analysis, I knew that but hadn't really seen a map of it. The capital seems to be for the purposes of economic analysis. Obviously, "Wpg Proper" is the defined city of Winnipeg.

Guess where I get confused, or perturbed, is when people boast about the population of the Capital Region, as though it is the population of Winnipeg and the area directly surrounding it. Specifically, people seem to love to point to the Capital Region and say "wow, is Winnipeg ever growing."

I don't really like the definition of "50% of the workforce working in the core city." I prefer to think of the Winnipeg population area in terms of proximity of built-up townships (in short, if you're on a highway leaving Winnipeg, as soon you're clearly in a farming area, you're no longer in what I consider the Winnipeg region).

In actuality, however, the Capital Region is for economic analysis. There are significant amount of people living in the Capital Region who are so far from Winnipeg, that it seems drastically inappropriate for Winnipeggers to boast about the population of "Winnipeg's Capital Region."

This is became quite clear to me when I considered, upon looking at the map you put up, that those with year-round properties in the beaches area of the southern bay of Lake Winnipeg are certainly too far away to be counted as a person who can be attributed somehow to Winnipeg. Is it fair for a Winnipeger to boast that the Capital Region population is X, when in fact, it's including people that far away (who need not rely on Winnipeg for basic services). Same goes with Saint Francois Xavier, which is illustrated on the map.

Anyway, I guess it's totally clear to me now that while the population of the capital region is X, that stat is completely deceptive as it leads one to believe that it's the population of the COW and neighbouring townships that are bordering the COW. There is no way that people from St. Francois Xavier would consider them to be in any "Winnipeg Region."

I have put together my own version of what I consider to be reasonable when we think about COW and the neighbouring townships:



Any people living beyond the red line, IMO, it's unreasonable to attribute them as being in any Winnipeg population area. It's also unacceptable for Winnipeggerss to boast that people beyond that red line are part of some population of near-by Winnipeg area... when this happens, it's just Winnipeggers unreasonably stretching as best they can to get the population numbers as high as possible in an attempt to impress those who do not live here.

The capital region, I'm sure, has a purpose for economic analysis. It is just deceptive to attribute people beyond my red line as being some sort of a Winnipegger, or to make it seem as though Winnipeg has that population bordering it. From now on, I have no use for statements like "we're sure on our way to being a big city, look at the capital region's population" etc.

Yup, I sure like my map, which I'm thinking of calling "The Realistic Winnipeg Population Region," or something along those lines with a condescending undertone.

Anyway thanks again, Newflyer, for taking the time to provide the info based on an earlier question of mine. Have a good weekend.

[Greco Roman]

Originally Posted by DowntownWpg

Any people living beyond the red line, IMO, it's unreasonable to attribute them as being in any Winnipeg population area. It's also unacceptable for Winnipeggerss to boast that people beyond that red line are part of some population of near-by Winnipeg area... when this happens, it's just Winnipeggers unreasonably stretching as best they can to get the population numbers as high as possible in an attempt to impress those who do not live here.

Well, I don't know about this completely. Take the Edmonton Capital Region for example. Cities like Leduc and Stony Plain are 30-40 kms outside Edmonton, and yet they are part of the Capital Region, although I do admit they DO NOT consider themselves Edmontonians by any means. I believe the Edmonton Capital Region extends as far out as about 70 or 80 kms away, including Morinville and Leduc.

I guess it just depends on perspective.

[dennis]

I think that understanding our market area is a better way to interpret the population of our area. The people of Selkirk tend not to commute to Winnipeg for employment as much - but what about shopping. I think more will commute to Winnipeg for that reason. Even more will commute here for arts and culture. It is best to divide our area into individual markets and determine the size of our population in this respect.

[Spocket]

It's all based on the commutershed. If more than half the people in any specific region have to travel to work in another region, they become part of its CMA. For Winnipeg, communities such as Stonewall , East St. Paul, Oakbank, and soon some others , etc., are counted as part of our CMA. The Capital Region is based on proximity more than anything else. These regions are included as part of the CR because a sizeable portion of their population commutes to Winnipeg on a daily basis but not enough of them do so to cross the half-way threshold.

Selkirk is more or less a self-sufficient community in terms of jobs but many people do commute daily to Winnipeg for work. These people won't do their shopping in Winnipeg usually though because their communities already provide them with most of what they'd need in that department.

Niverville for example, is a community that is fast becoming a satelite of Winnipeg. The RM of Hanover is another fast-growing area that will probably wind up being part of the Winnipeg CMA even though most of it's really not particularly close. The part of it that is close though is where a lot of development is taking place and eventually the number of people commuting to Winnipeg on a daily basis will exceed the number of people working within the RM. I'm not sure if Niverville is in the RM of Hanover but if it is, it's probably right on the boundary line that puts it just outside of our CMA. When we're only talking about fifteen thousand people or so, a couple thousand extra can tip the scales.

[Biff]

December 19, 2008

STRONG POPULATION GROWTH
CONTINUES IN MANITOBA: SWAN
- - -
Gain of 25,300 People in Last Two Years
Best in 36 Years

Manitoba continues to attract significant numbers of immigrants and has recorded its strongest population growth in 36 years, Competitiveness, Training and Trade Minister Andrew Swan announced today.

As of Oct. 1, Manitoba's population stood at 1,210,500 people, according to figures released today by Statistics Canada. During the last 12 months, the population jumped by 13,124, the largest one-year growth in 25 years. It grew by 25,300 in the last two years, the strongest two-year growth in 36 years.

"Manitoba had the fourth-fastest growth rate among the provinces during the past two years," said Swan. "We welcome these new Manitobans who add immeasurably to the diversity and economic strength of the province."

Statistics Canada figures show that 15,733 more individuals came to Manitoba than left for other jurisdictions in the last two years. Manitoba welcomed a record 21,748 international immigrants from October 2006 to October 2008, the highest influx since 1971 when modern records began.

"Manitoba is attracting people from all corners of the world as the preferred location for their new home," said Swan. "Our government's successful Provincial Nominee Program now accounts for more than 70 per cent of all new arrivals in Manitoba."

[newflyer]

Originally Posted by DowntownWpg

Newflyer,

Thank-you very much for the info you had put up back on the first page of this thread. I was always wondering about maps and the capital region.

So, the CMA is really a StatsCan thing for population analysis, I knew that but hadn't really seen a map of it. The capital seems to be for the purposes of economic analysis. Obviously, "Wpg Proper" is the defined city of Winnipeg.

Guess where I get confused, or perturbed, is when people boast about the population of the Capital Region, as though it is the population of Winnipeg and the area directly surrounding it. Specifically, people seem to love to point to the Capital Region and say "wow, is Winnipeg ever growing."

I don't really like the definition of "50% of the workforce working in the core city." I prefer to think of the Winnipeg population area in terms of proximity of built-up townships (in short, if you're on a highway leaving Winnipeg, as soon you're clearly in a farming area, you're no longer in what I consider the Winnipeg region).

In actuality, however, the Capital Region is for economic analysis. There are significant amount of people living in the Capital Region who are so far from Winnipeg, that it seems drastically inappropriate for Winnipeggers to boast about the population of "Winnipeg's Capital Region."

This is became quite clear to me when I considered, upon looking at the map you put up, that those with year-round properties in the beaches area of the southern bay of Lake Winnipeg are certainly too far away to be counted as a person who can be attributed somehow to Winnipeg. Is it fair for a Winnipeger to boast that the Capital Region population is X, when in fact, it's including people that far away (who need not rely on Winnipeg for basic services). Same goes with Saint Francois Xavier, which is illustrated on the map.

Anyway, I guess it's totally clear to me now that while the population of the capital region is X, that stat is completely deceptive as it leads one to believe that it's the population of the COW and neighbouring townships that are bordering the COW. There is no way that people from St. Francois Xavier would consider them to be in any "Winnipeg Region."

I have put together my own version of what I consider to be reasonable when we think about COW and the neighbouring townships:



Any people living beyond the red line, IMO, it's unreasonable to attribute them as being in any Winnipeg population area. It's also unacceptable for Winnipeggerss to boast that people beyond that red line are part of some population of near-by Winnipeg area... when this happens, it's just Winnipeggers unreasonably stretching as best they can to get the population numbers as high as possible in an attempt to impress those who do not live here.

The capital region, I'm sure, has a purpose for economic analysis. It is just deceptive to attribute people beyond my red line as being some sort of a Winnipegger, or to make it seem as though Winnipeg has that population bordering it. From now on, I have no use for statements like "we're sure on our way to being a big city, look at the capital region's population" etc.

Yup, I sure like my map, which I'm thinking of calling "The Realistic Winnipeg Population Region," or something along those lines with a condescending undertone.

Anyway thanks again, Newflyer, for taking the time to provide the info based on an earlier question of mine. Have a good weekend.

You are very welcome .. I wanted to clear up any possible misunderstanding as to what was the Capital Region is, compared to the CMA. The fact is they would be the same number if Selkirk didn't have its own employment base... with the steel industry and retail and regional services.

I can understand your point of view, but honestly if you carried the same logic over to other cities, than Vancouver would be only 600,000 people. The fact is the region is developing because of the economic stimulus of the primary city.. and this develops economic growth in the surrounding areas. This is the reason why they need to develop plans for the capital region as each municipality becomes more intigrated with its neighbour.

Another example would be LA .. which is a much lesser city if you don't consider the growth and development of the surrounding cities (suburbs) over the decades. In agregate of the LA region is a massive economic base. Of course Winnipeg is a much smaller scale than LA .. but when considering the economy of the city, it would not be accurate to just include the city proper plus a couple KMs beyond the perimeter. Winnipeg is greatly supported by the surrounding population and in many ways the region becomes more of the base measure of what the city can support than the city proper. This is what investors consider when looking at what Winnipeg can support.

One last example would be ... a number of years ago I used to work at a rapidly growing company 30 minutes outside of the city. Each morning I used to drive from my apartment downtown to the office of the company. While I realized how lucky I was to be driving against the flow .. I also was very aware of the thousands of people who commute to the city to support Winnipeg's economy everyday. Winnipeg would be a much developed city, if it wasn't for the economic addition of its nieghbours.

It is no different than any other large city ... Toronto, Montreal, Chicago, Denver .. you name it. As time goes on Niverville, Stonewall, Selkirk.. ect will see further invetsment , both residential and business .. as the economy of the region grows... BUT Winnipeg being the big dog will see the overwelming majority of the investment, unless it's economy isn't supported by strong economic policy.

[newflyer]

Population Climbing

12/19/2008


Manitoba recorded its strongest population growth in 36 years in 2008.
As of October 1st, we were 1-million, 210-thousand, 5-hundred people strong.

During the past year, our population has climbed over 13-thousand, the largest one-year growth in 25 years.

Statistics Canada figures show almost 16-thousand more people came to Manitoba than left.. in the past two years.

Source: CJOB radio

[ILYR]

Originally Posted by newflyer

Population Climbing

12/19/2008


Manitoba recorded its strongest population growth in 36 years in 2008.
As of October 1st, we were 1-million, 210-thousand, 5-hundred people strong.

During the past year, our population has climbed over 13-thousand, the largest one-year growth in 25 years.

Statistics Canada figures show almost 16-thousand more people came to Manitoba than left.. in the past two years.

Source: CJOB radio

Did some quick calculations and as of 2008 Manitoba population growth for the present census decade (90917 for 2001-2011) is actually the 5th greatest since 1871. Better decades are 1901, 1911, 1921, and 1961. However there are still a couple more years left, so if we assume continued growth as averaged for the last 8 years Manitoba should see a growth of about 110000 for 2001-2011. That would mean 2001-2011 would surpass the 1901 census growth of 102705, making 2011 the 4th largest population growth. Looking at plots below the most recent decade is one of three peaks in population growth for the province. I would say a rather positive trend.

[newflyer]

Originally Posted by ILYR

Did some quick calculations and as of 2008 Manitoba population growth for the present census decade (90917 for 2001-2011) is actually the 5th greatest since 1871. Better decades are 1901, 1911, 1921, and 1961. However there are still a couple more years left, so if we assume continued growth as averaged for the last 8 years Manitoba should see a growth of about 110000 for 2001-2011. That would mean 2001-2011 would surpass the 1901 census growth of 102705, making 2011 the 4th largest population growth. Looking at plots below the most recent decade is one of three peaks in population growth for the province. I would say a rather positive trend.

Thats great news for the province!!

Everytime I come back to Winnipeg I notice the growth in the capital region .. and I am sure the rest of the province is also doing very well.

I can only hope that I will be among the numbers of people moving/returning to Manitoba in the coming year.

[ssiguy]

I think the good news will keep on rolling and probably get better due to the massive downturn in the price of oil which is resulting in the cancellations/indefinate postponments of massive new projects. BC is also starting to really slow down and that will only increase when the Olympics are over. I live in Metro Vancouver and the number of projects and geeneral construction has really slowed down. People are nervous about BC's future and confidence is essential. Proof is in the pudding........house prices have dropped 15% in just the last 7 months and are continuing to plung.
Manitoba will do well, its one of the benfits of having a diversified economy. Due to your Hydro potential, New Flyer, food production, high immigration, and sense of optimism I truly beleive Manitoba is going to be Canada's "Rennaisance" province.

Oh, just as a boost.........my sister who had never been to Winnipeg went thru with her husband on route to Ontario and both thought it was an incredibly beautiful city.

[LilZebra]

Originally Posted by Only The Lonely..

I for one am sure looking forward to 2013.

Comes right after 2012.

[Spocket]

^Huh ?

[1ajs]

Originally Posted by Spocket

^Huh ?

x2

[bomberguy]

^The year the world will end.

Dec. 21/2012 to be exact.

Edit: I'm just helping out these clueless people. They have to know about this big topic that's being talked about around the whole world.
I don't believe in this so don't be shittin on me. kthxbye.

[Spocket]

It will ? Giant marshmallow man again ? I thought we took care of that guy in the '80's. Maybe he has a brother or something.

[hexrae]

Originally Posted by bomberguy

^The year the world will end.

Dec. 21/2012 to be exact.

Again?

Back on topic (well, outside Winnipeg pop estimates). Anyone hazard a guess as to whether the population of Gimli will increase due to Icelandic immigration? I saw it mentioned elsewhere on these boards, and heard an CBC radio interview with some newspaper in Gimli. (Edit: Immigration from Iceland since the country is bankrupt).

[ILYR]

Originally Posted by hexrae

Again?

Back on topic (well, outside Winnipeg pop estimates). Anyone hazard a guess as to whether the population of Gimli will increase due to Icelandic immigration? I saw it mentioned elsewhere on these boards, and heard an CBC radio interview with some newspaper in Gimli. (Edit: Immigration from Iceland since the country is bankrupt).

Well Iceland has only about 320,000 people, so I don't think it will have a huge impact. Unless everyone who leaves Iceland actually goes to Gimli.