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  #121  
Old Posted Sep 30, 2014, 8:27 PM
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Originally Posted by Trans Canada View Post
I'm here to defend my stats nerd credentials - those averages are indeed geometric. If you took Calgary's 1996 pop, multiply by 1.0281^16, you'd get 2012 pop. Was "average" the wrong word to use for this statistic?

The 15 year outlook at 2.81% is 1.0281^15=1.515 or 51.5%
So by 15 year outlook, you mean that the next 15 years could see that growth, or are you referring to the preceding 15 years still?

This would put Calgary's projected CMA population at over 2.1 million by 2029. Obviously this is subject to change though.
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  #122  
Old Posted Sep 30, 2014, 8:41 PM
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Originally Posted by Chadillaccc View Post
So by 15 year outlook, you mean that the next 15 years could see that growth, or are you referring to the preceding 15 years still?

This would put Calgary's projected CMA population at over 2.1 million by 2029. Obviously this is subject to change though.
The first - if Calgary sticks to 2.81% annual growth it will grow by 51.5%.

I can't seem to find StatCan CMA data going earlier than 1996. I was hoping to run this back to the 70's. The only way I can think of getting this data would be going through municipal censuses (censes?).
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  #123  
Old Posted Sep 30, 2014, 8:54 PM
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Okay cool. I expect that, as the population grows, actual percentage growth will lower significantly. However, even dropping 10% down to 42% growth over that period, the CMA will still be past 2 million by 2029.

Would you be able to calculate the 15 year percentages of growth for all cities on that list? I can then work out rough projections for each CMA from that.
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  #124  
Old Posted Sep 30, 2014, 9:38 PM
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Hurry up!

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  #125  
Old Posted Sep 30, 2014, 9:41 PM
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In other population-related (ish?) news, Chestermere Alberta just voted to become a city yesterday. They will officially be Alberta's 18th city. Their current population is in excess of 17 000, with an annual growth rate of 5.1%. They plan on increasing in population to over 60 000 by the 2030s.

City vote: http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgar...city-1.2782071
Population increase: http://www.calgaryherald.com/news/ca...247/story.html



WOOT! WOOT! WOOT!
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  #126  
Old Posted Sep 30, 2014, 9:50 PM
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Chad you can calculate those yourself - just use (1+growthrate)^(years), so (1+0.0281)^15=1.0281^15 for Calgary, etc. I'll look at 5 and 10 year growth rates this evening and you can run some projections off them.

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Hurry up!

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  #127  
Old Posted Sep 30, 2014, 9:57 PM
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Yeah, I'm really not sure how to do that. I feel like you spelled it out for me there, but I still don't understand. Does ^ mean "to the power of" ? I am just not understanding the entire core concept I guess Sorry. Don't worry about it.
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  #128  
Old Posted Sep 30, 2014, 10:20 PM
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yup exactly, to the power of. 1.0281^15 is 1.0281 times itself 15 times.
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  #129  
Old Posted Oct 1, 2014, 3:27 AM
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I pulled the 2000 and 2001 data when Ontario had that huge peak. While Calgary squeezed into 1st growth rate, it was 5th in terms of population growth - even behind Ottawa-Gatineau.



Calgary and Edmonton's populations are really close in the above table - Edmonton was actually larger than Calgary until 2000.
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  #130  
Old Posted Oct 1, 2014, 9:06 AM
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Toronto averaged 1.89% despite already having 6 million people! Holy crap. Those absolute growth numbers must be insane....

Interesting how Toronto & Ottawa have very similar shapes. I would have not have expected that given how Ottawa's federal government dominated economy isolates itself. Also, why exactly did every Ontario city except for KWC have such a burst in 2000-2001? Toronto even touched Calgary in that period...
the overall ontario no idea... the extra big climb of ottawa was the tech industry. I could cry thinking of the potential we felt then, then pop.

This was the period where we started being referred to as Silicon North(we've lost that name to other cities now).

Nortel R&D and manufacturing was growing huge in Ottawa creating a talent pool that started their own companies. Other major companies in the industry bought up or moved in to use that talent, which drew alot more engineers etc to the region and it just snowballed. JDS Uniphase, Erikkson, Cisco.

All my friends and me basically finished high school and immediately had high paying jobs (for our skill level..hs grads, screw university going to go work at ______) and benefit packages manufacturing modems, routers, etc. It felt like a world of opportunity came to Ottawa. Oh man that nortel campus on carling.. nap rooms, massage.

Dot.com burst...

Ottawa's future population estimates from that time period are very interesting to see.
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  #131  
Old Posted Oct 1, 2014, 1:50 PM
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^ I disagree. That boom, if had lasted, would have Ottawa even more suburbanized than it is now. That boom was entirely based in the western fringes of the city and as such Kanata & Barrhaven exploded in population while the city centre stagnated. That era was the worst in the city's whole history for its urban form.... suburbanization at its peak, transit ridership plummeting. If it had continued without refocusing on the downtown core and I can only shudder at how Ottawa would have become... a downtown full of parking lots and continuous sprawl all down Highway 7....

I prefer no growth to bad growth.

Seeing what's happening in Kingston, where the city's only 'boom' (and a rather timid one at that too) is the rapid growth of the university, makes me realize just how positive a downtown-focused boom can be.
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  #132  
Old Posted Oct 1, 2014, 2:19 PM
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I am surprised to see that Hamilton was peaking then and half wonder if that was Burlington grabbing GTA commuters because that was one of the low points for Hamilton from what I remember.
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  #133  
Old Posted Oct 1, 2014, 4:02 PM
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As for depopulation, especially with NB being found to have one of the Oldest populations in Canada, I don't think we're ready for it. With the French factor added in, and the fact that Northern NB is one of the main areas to shrink, we're going to be in for some rough times in the years/decades to come. The Southern cities should weather the storm well, but Edmundston, Miramichi, Campbellton and Bathurst are in for some rough times unless something happens to turn things around.
It's going to be an "interesting" next 20 years. NB/NS are now tied for the second oldest provinces/states in North America (after Florida), and the North of NB continues to empty. I don't see how govco services to many of these areas are sustainable (they've been getting withdrawn for the past 20 years, really).
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  #134  
Old Posted Oct 1, 2014, 4:15 PM
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Originally Posted by Vorkuta View Post
It's going to be an "interesting" next 20 years. NB/NS are now tied for the second oldest provinces/states in North America (after Florida), and the North of NB continues to empty. I don't see how govco services to many of these areas are sustainable (they've been getting withdrawn for the past 20 years, really).
One thing to remember is that Canada in general is older than most of the U.S. (BC, Quebec, and Ontario, for example, are also each older than any individual US state). Even Alberta and Saskatchewan, while they seem youthful to Canadians, are actually older than the median U.S. age.

But yeah, it will be a painful time for rural areas in Canada and especially in the Maritimes. I feel like it may be hasten urbanization of the region, however, which will be positive in the long run.
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  #135  
Old Posted Oct 1, 2014, 4:22 PM
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But yeah, it will be a painful time for rural areas in Canada and especially in the Maritimes. I feel like it may be hasten urbanization of the region, however, which will be positive in the long run.
Yes, there will be winners and losers in the Maritimes for sure. Central NS, Southern NB and Central PEI will be OK, but the rest of the region is in serious trouble. Guysborough County in NS shrank by over 19% in only a dozen years since 2001.

Urbanization is the key to our survival, and will help to sustain the intervening hinterland in the central Maritime region. The extremities of the region however may need to be sacrificed (like cutting off a gangrenous appendage). At the very least, services (hospitals, schools, roads) to the declining periphery of the region will have to be severely rationed.
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  #136  
Old Posted Oct 1, 2014, 4:23 PM
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NB is going to be in for some tough times (especially budget wise) in the next 20; but having 3 CMAs is going to help with the Urbanization I think. It gives more options to pull people into, and more space to do the building within so it doesn't look as much like everything is just going to one place.

Still, Fredericton, the City, not the Capital, needs to get off its duff and shake its "Large Town" attitude and start treating its services like a proper city should. (And probably be more aggressive with its boundaries and consolidating its services with its boroughs). Our departing Airport Chief outright said that he wishes there was bus service out to the airport (where there are dozens of students at the flying school who could be using the bus to get in/out of the city), but because the airport is in the village of Lincoln, Freddy Transit can't go out there. (Province restrictions on Transit; but the cities need to push to shake that up like they did with Sunday Shopping).
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  #137  
Old Posted Oct 1, 2014, 6:00 PM
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Originally Posted by MonctonRad View Post
Yes, there will be winners and losers in the Maritimes for sure. Central NS, Southern NB and Central PEI will be OK, but the rest of the region is in serious trouble. Guysborough County in NS shrank by over 19% in only a dozen years since 2001.

Urbanization is the key to our survival, and will help to sustain the intervening hinterland in the central Maritime region. The extremities of the region however may need to be sacrificed (like cutting off a gangrenous appendage). At the very least, services (hospitals, schools, roads) to the declining periphery of the region will have to be severely rationed.
The thing is, communities on the periphery of the Maritimes provinces are still far, far closer to the capitals and cities than remote communities in, say, Northern Ontario or the prairies. I think we often forget that the land area of the Maritime provinces is relatively tiny, and in most of Canada, the far-flung remote communities are a hell of a lot farther away.

Example: If you're in Campbellton—at the extreme northern tip of New Brunswick—you're less than a four-drive to Fredericton or Moncton.

That probably sounds pretty good to someone in Prince George or Timmins or Flin-Flon, all of which are A: Much further from their respective regional centres and B: Not even the most remote towns in their respective provinces. So distance shouldn't be the handicap we often say it is.

More troubling is the way many rural communities not only resent the cities, but refuse to embrace even their own nearby towns, and the economic and cultural benefits that come with town living. There are way too many communities in NS and NB that are just a few dozen houses strung out along a rural road. They're not farming communities or anything with an economic basis for this living pattern. They're just rural sprawl.
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  #138  
Old Posted Oct 1, 2014, 6:03 PM
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Originally Posted by Drybrain View Post
The thing is, communities on the periphery of the Maritimes provinces are still far, far closer to the capitals and cities than remote communities in, say, Northern Ontario or the prairies. I think we often forget that the land area of the Maritime provinces is relatively tiny, and in most of Canada, the far-flung remote communities are a hell of a lot farther away.

.
I have relatives in Tracadie and Bathurst who think nothing of going grocery shopping at Costco in Moncton, for example.
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  #139  
Old Posted Oct 1, 2014, 6:10 PM
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Immigration to top 20 metro areas, Canada and USA, 2013

Rank, 2012-13, CBSA / CMA, Immigration
1 - New York 167,393
2 +1 Toronto 81,800
3 -1 Los Angeles 79,893
4 - Miami 66,636
5 - Montreal 43,950
6 - Washington 39,170
7 - Chicago 32,819
8 - Houston 31,953
9 - San Francisco 30,600
10 - Vancouver 29,450
11 - Dallas 26,760
12 - Boston 23,867
13 - Atlanta 20,054
14 +1 Philadelphia 18,121
15 +1 Seattle 17,865
16 +2 Calgary 17,505
17 - San Jose 17,292
18 -4 San Diego 16,567
19 - Riverside 14,026
20 +1 Edmonton 12,717


Permanent residents by province or territory and urban area, 2009-2013
http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/resourc...iminary/02.asp

Facts and Figures 2012: Permanent residents by province or territory and urban area
http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/resourc...rmanent/11.asp

Table 5: Persons Obtaining Lawful Permanent Resident Status by Core Based Statistical Area (CBSA) of Residence: Fiscal Years 2004 to 2013
https://www.dhs.gov/yearbook-immigra...nent-residents
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  #140  
Old Posted Oct 1, 2014, 6:24 PM
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^good ol' "stagnant" Montreal. Woot!
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