What Plan It are you on?
Experts divided about how to reach city's goals
By Grace Lui, Calgary HeraldMay 16, 2009
As a development manager for Carma Developers, and a former city planning official, Grace Lui offers the following opinions about Plan It, an ambitious proposal by city hall that could affect Calgary's growth for the next 60 years.
Inmy field, lively conversations occur between planners and developers upon hearing the words "Plan It."
Having worked in both the public and private sectors, I find myself regularly challenged to provide a balanced viewpoint between the two sides.
There are areas of consensus.
Both endorse the key directions of Plan It, and agree that we need to grow in a more compact manner. Most agree that Plan It is a worthwhile endeavour and will be approved in some form.
Discussion arises from differing viewpoints on how to get there.
Planners are very good at seeing us for who we "should be."Developers are very good at seeing us for who we are.
Neither group can claim accuracy in predicting what will happen in 30 or 60 years.
Plan It is a visionary document that sets out a 30-year plan, based on a 60-year vision, to be implemented in 10-year increments.
It aims for a more compact city and endorses expansion of our public transit system.
Transportation budgets will maintain existing roads, but will focus more on transit, walkways and cycling routes.
Managed congestion will motivate the shift from autos to walking, cycling and transit.
Under Plan It, the existing road network will be required to accommodate an additional two mil-lion car trips per day.
This assumes that transit use grows 400 per cent, and walking and cycling grows 265 per cent, in 60 years. Plan It will "endeavour to accommodate 33 per cent of Calgary's future population growth within developed areas of the city by 2039."
To understand what that means, realize that since 2006, 21 per cent of all new housing units built in the city have been constructed in the developed areas--and that has equated to minus two per cent population growth. It means that in spite of new units being built in existing areas, we have lost population to new suburbs.
The good news is that City of Calgary predictions for the next five years anticipate 23 per cent of new units to be built in developed areas representing zero per cent population growth. In the past 20-plus years (since 1986), we have averaged less than minus two per cent of new population growth in established communities.
To reach Plan It targets, 65 per cent of new population growth will be accommodated in established areas in 30 years.
Given that we have moved two per cent in the past 20 years, to go from zero per cent today to 65 per cent by 2039 is ambitious.
It challenges us to fundamentally shift how and where we grow, and assumes we will do it quickly.
Achieving these targets will require a streamlined process that removes barriers to development, and provides clarity about where and how much redevelopment will occur in established communities.
Although Plan It identifies some areas, it also relies on local community plans (such as Area Redevelopment Plans) to endorse areas for intensification.
While this respects the low-density character of many established communities, it poses a challenge for developers to overcome the NIMBY (Not In My Backyard) issues that get raised through an already lengthy approval process, further pushing out the timeframe for Plan It targets to be met.
Even assuming that approval processes can be shortened to support intensification and redevelopment, will Calgarians support these projects by moving from single-family housing areas into more compact multi-family forms?
City planners believe that significant changes are imminent which will lead this change in behaviour and preference.
The onset of peak oil, an aging population, higher reliance on immigrant populations and a more environmentally-conscious generation will exponentially shift existing behaviours.
Developers and builders make their living through monitoring change in people's preferences and behaviours.
They have found that the inclination to drive, demand parking, and move to single family homes (especially at certain life stages) have remained fairly constant.
Many believe that gas prices have greater impact on driving behaviours than congestion or land use policies -- and that increased fuel prices will only moderate driving, shifting people towards fuel-efficient vehicles sooner than influencing a change towards transit, walking or cycling.
Developers believe that some of these fundamental preferences will continue and barring sudden critical impacts, will only change at glacial speeds.
Ultimately, we are responsible sponsible through our collective actions in determining how far we go and how quickly.
The fundamental expectations tations of Plan It require more than public support at a hearing -- they require market support to see it through to success.
Passing the plan will not automatically make it happen.
We cannot force developers opers to bring forward projects that are not market-supported -- even visionary developers need financial support.
Planners cannot socially engineer people into desired behaviours through policy.
Council cannot mandate market trends to happen.
A balanced approach should sustain all forms of development, allowing people to choose what forms to support, and to change that support over time.
We should ensure that each form of growth pays for itself-- to a large degree, this is already happening.
Specific, measurable targets like population growth are difficult to predict on 30 and 60 year time horizons.
Visionary, long-term plans need to set clear direction, but they need to be broad enough to stand the test of time.
There is no status quo; things change.
The decisions we make as Calgarians will lead the pace
of change: everything else will follow from that.
Grace Lui is currently a development manager with Carma Developers. She recently worked at the City of Calgary developing transit-oriented developments and industrial land. Previous to that, she worked as both a private and public planner.
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IN SHORT
If you want to make your views known on Plan It: On May 6, as part of Plan It, the city released copies of the Pro-posed Municipal Development Plan and the Calgary Transportation Plan. The plans are expected to go to a public hearing of council June 23. To view these plans, go to Calgary.ca and click on the Plan It link. Comments for consideration at the public hearing must be received by the City Clerk's Office prior to 10 a. m. on June 11.
Email:city
clerk@calgary.ca
Mail: City Clerk,
#8007 P. O Box 2100, Station M, Calgary,
AB T2P 2M5.
Tel: 403-268-5861. Fax: 403-268-2362.
© Copyright (c) The Calgary Herald
http://www.calgaryherald.com/opinion...435/story.html
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Overall, a very sensible Op-Ed by Grace Liu.
To me the focus on the "targets" for growth numbers somewhat misses the point. I think where the targeting should really be occurring is in the investment decisions the City makes. It should be about giving growth within the city's boundaries every chance for success. If you build truly great infrastructure and amenities and put in a planning framework that facilitates growth, either the market will respond or it won't.
A target of 33% is somewhat arbitrary and actually impossible to predict. A suppose a stated target or goals is somewhat worthy and perhaps useful, but what really should be in the forefront of their mind is to put the conditions in place and make the necessary investments simply to encourage
as many as they can to live in the core, on transit lines or within the existing built up area.
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