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  #41  
Old Posted Oct 29, 2018, 1:02 PM
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Originally Posted by Spocket View Post
...
As I recall there's something like 120 million people in a contiguous, high density urban megalopolis there with only tiny gaps (which are only gaps depending on whether or not you think the gaps can qualify as urban) It's probably the best example of a megalopolis anywhere. If we decide it's only 30 million then where are we drawing our lines here?
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Originally Posted by yuriandrade View Post
This number is bogus. The entire Guangdong province, which is the size of England+Wales, has 108 million people, mostly rural. Foshan-Guangzhou-Dongguan-Shenzhen put together have 45 million.
The 120 million number is a weird one. It seems to have come from a widely reported UN report that came out in 2010/2011. PDF of that report here - the 120 million and the 60 million figure i cite in the next sentence are on the 30th page of the PDF. The same report also said that Nagoya-Osaka-Kyoto-Kobe in Japan has 60 million people. In both cases, the number is approximately double the actual regional populations. How that happened is anybody's guess - possibly everything was double-counted, although other regions appear to be in the correct range, so who knows
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  #42  
Old Posted Oct 29, 2018, 1:04 PM
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Originally Posted by Crawford View Post
The Rhein-Ruhr is a singular population agglomeration, but no one would consider themselves part of the same region. Cologne and Düsseldorf are historically very different (economy, food, religion, accent, sport) and the Ruhr is quite distinct from the other two.

Cologne-Bonn is a "metro" in the U.S. sense, and possibly the Ruhr excluding Düsseldorf.

In Germany everything can change in 10 km; in the U.S. you can drive for 200 km and nothing changes. Another difference is that all cities are separated by "rural" land, even two cities with adjacent political boundaries, as in Ruhr, so there is never continuous development.
But than you need to be coherent. If you place Guangzhou and Shenzhen or Boston and Providence into the same metro/urban area, Duisburg and Düsseldorf must be placed under the same.

I don't think cultural differences or even separated labour markets should be an issue there. Such things happen even in monocentric urban areas like São Paulo or Tokyo. The fact is Rhein-Ruhr is all on the same state and are a continuous and rather compact urban area. Ditto for Leeds-Bradford or even Manchester-Liverpool.

BTW I'm curious: why don't the German urban areas don't touch each other. Do they have greenbelts like the British or it's just a random coincidence?
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  #43  
Old Posted Oct 29, 2018, 1:16 PM
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Originally Posted by emathias View Post
The 120 million number is a weird one. It seems to have come from a widely reported UN report that came out in 2010/2011. PDF of that report here - the 120 million and the 60 million figure i cite in the next sentence are on the 30th page of the PDF. The same report also said that Nagoya-Osaka-Kyoto-Kobe in Japan has 60 million people. In both cases, the number is approximately double the actual regional populations. How that happened is anybody's guess - possibly everything was double-counted, although other regions appear to be in the correct range, so who knows
In the Japanese case, it seems it's actually underestimated. Tokyo ranges from 36-38 million, Nagoya 10 million, Osaka-Kyoto 18 million and I believe Shizuoka is not counted in neither of those areas. It's 70 million people there, although that's clearly a megalopolis, not a metro area, even by the widest definition.
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  #44  
Old Posted Oct 29, 2018, 1:57 PM
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Originally Posted by yuriandrade View Post
But than you need to be coherent. If you place Guangzhou and Shenzhen or Boston and Providence into the same metro/urban area, Duisburg and Düsseldorf must be placed under the same.
I don't think these areas should be considered metros. Maybe economic regions or something.

My larger point is that metro classifications are highly variable by nation, so you wouldn't expect similar sized metros, or even a similar metro framework.

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Originally Posted by yuriandrade View Post
I don't think cultural differences or even separated labour markets should be an issue there. Such things happen even in monocentric urban areas like São Paulo or Tokyo. The fact is Rhein-Ruhr is all on the same state and are a continuous and rather compact urban area. Ditto for Leeds-Bradford or even Manchester-Liverpool.
NRW is an artificial construct, created in the postwar era. The Rheinland portion (Catholic, at one time French, wine-oriented) and former Westfalen (Lutheran, Prussian, industrial) are still distinct today. Cologne-Bonn have more in common with Rheinland Pfalz (state to immediate south) than the rest of NRW.

In any case, if you want to call the entire area a "metro", you would have to include Rheinland Pfalz, because Koblenz is very tied to Cologne/Bonn. They're the same culturally and have strong commuting patterns.

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Originally Posted by yuriandrade View Post
BTW I'm curious: why don't the German urban areas don't touch each other. Do they have greenbelts like the British or it's just a random coincidence?
Yes, they have greenbelts. The development just stops.

This is the city border betwen Essen and Bochum, two of the largest Ruhr-area cities:
https://www.google.com/maps/@51.4605...7i13312!8i6656
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  #45  
Old Posted Oct 29, 2018, 3:48 PM
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Originally Posted by Crawford View Post

Yes, they have greenbelts. The development just stops.

This is the city border betwen Essen and Bochum, two of the largest Ruhr-area cities:
https://www.google.com/maps/@51.4605...7i13312!8i6656
It's crazy! I didn't expect to see maize in Germany, specially right in the heart of Ruhr metropolis. It's very weird to see farmland completely encircled by dense urban area, instead of the other way round.
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  #46  
Old Posted Oct 29, 2018, 3:57 PM
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Originally Posted by yuriandrade View Post
It's crazy! I didn't expect to see maize in Germany, specially right in the heart of Ruhr metropolis. It's very weird to see farmland completely encircled by dense urban area, instead of the other way round.
Not only that, but this rural landscape is less than 4 miles from Essen city center (600k people) and maybe 1.5 miles from Bochum city center (400k people).

Germany has basically no sprawl. It's just little villages at the city edge, and new neighborhoods are only added within restricted boundaries.

Maize, BTW, was traditionally not for human consumption in Germany. It was typically only for livestock.
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  #47  
Old Posted Oct 29, 2018, 4:15 PM
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Originally Posted by chris08876 View Post
Just quote his post, like if your going to reply, and you can see the format used. Quick way to utilize it. Use the "----" or "...." to keep it aligned.
Thank you & yuriandrade.
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  #48  
Old Posted Oct 30, 2018, 6:43 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by yuriandrade View Post
In the Japanese case, it seems it's actually underestimated. Tokyo ranges from 36-38 million, Nagoya 10 million, Osaka-Kyoto 18 million and I believe Shizuoka is not counted in neither of those areas. It's 70 million people there, although that's clearly a megalopolis, not a metro area, even by the widest definition.
You're right - for some reason I missed that Tokyo was part of that megalopolis. Which makes the 120 mil number all the weirder.
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  #49  
Old Posted Oct 30, 2018, 10:15 PM
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Originally Posted by The Chemist View Post
In the US sense they'd probably both be considered metro areas, given the continuous nature of development and the interconnectedness of the cities in the regions (both by expressway and by high speed / commuter rail).
They're not just connected but now contiguous (go on Google Earth). Sometime in the last decade a wondering finger of Shenzhen (12 million) connected up with Dongguan (8 million), which is across the river from Guangzhou-Foshan (14 million) - as in one can walk from one end to the other on a city street sided by buildings. This is why the World Bank named it as the world's biggest single city in 2015. Hong Kong isn't counted due to the border and the fact a few miles of paddy fields still separates it from Shenzhen.

Although the 42 million strong city is known as the Pearl River Metropolis (not to be confused with the Pearl River Delta agglomeration that counts >60 million) you'll increasingly see it now just referred to as 'Guangzhou'.



More here:

https://supermouse.blog/2016/06/06/t...-biggest-city/

Last edited by muppet; Oct 31, 2018 at 7:42 AM.
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  #50  
Old Posted Oct 30, 2018, 10:20 PM
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Differing patterns of exurban urbanity:

https://pudding.cool/2018/10/city_3d/



NYC takes in large areas of low density countryside due to counts based on low level commuting between nodes





London is very evenly spread out (Green Belt legislation), and actually goes on in the same format and density across most of England, one of the world's densest islands (50 million urbanites in an area smaller than Maine, which on US levels would count as one CSA).



zoomed out:





Jakarta, now over 30 million wouldn't really know where to stop counting - residing on THE world's densest island with >140 million




Tokyo is probably the easiest to define, very contiguous with very few jumps




Manila the world's densest megacity is also very easily defined - almost worryingly so




And this is the world's biggest city Guangzhou-Dongguan-Shenzhen. It's so big we've had to zoom out.


Last edited by muppet; Nov 1, 2018 at 7:38 AM.
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  #51  
Old Posted Oct 30, 2018, 10:25 PM
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Originally Posted by Crawford View Post

Maize, BTW, was traditionally not for human consumption in Germany. It was typically only for livestock.
Same for maize in the UK, there's a lot of it in my region but it is all (the whole plant) used as animal feed, green maize I think they call it, because the lack of warmth/sun means it doesn't ripen enough for human consumption.

I've grown my own and you can get some nice sweet corn cobs for eating but presumably those varieties are not commercially viable on a big scale.
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  #52  
Old Posted Oct 30, 2018, 10:31 PM
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Originally Posted by Crawford View Post
Germany has basically no sprawl. It's just little villages at the city edge, and new neighborhoods are only added within restricted boundaries.

Maize, BTW, was traditionally not for human consumption in Germany. It was typically only for livestock.
Question:

Will Germany become more like America or more like Asia considering the fact that they will face population decline and economic stagnation this century?

Second question:

How will this reality from question #1 have an effect tomorrow's sprawl pattern given the technological advances from today's society?
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  #53  
Old Posted Oct 30, 2018, 10:35 PM
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I don't think they will necessarily have population decline, that depends on immigration as well as internal births and deaths
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  #54  
Old Posted Oct 31, 2018, 12:00 AM
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Another region that's emerging is São Paulo Macrometropolitan Area and as soon as 2030, it will be widely considered na ordinary metropolitan area, with 35-36 million inh. then.

It has several definitions, but that's how it behaved in the past Census. State, macrometropolitan area, metropolitan area and municipality respectively:

--------------------------------- 2010 -------- 2000 -------- 1991 ----- Growth 10-00 & 00-91
Code:
BRASIL --------------- 190.747.731 -- 169.799.170 -- 146.825.475 --- 12,34% --- 15,65%

SÃO PAULO (st) -------- 41.262.199 --- 37.032.403 --- 31.588.925 --- 11,42% --- 17,23%

SÃO PAULO (ma) -------- 29.963.735 --- 26.764.702 --- 22.661.098 --- 11,95% --- 18,11%

SÃO PAULO (me) -------- 19.683.975 --- 17.878.703 --- 15.444.941 --- 10,10% --- 15,76%

SÃO PAULO (mu) -------- 11.253.503 --- 10.434.252 ---- 9.646.185 ---- 7,85% ---- 8,17%
For the first time since the beginning of Brazilian Census (1872), São Paulo state grew slower than Brazil as a whole. São Paulo's suburbs (metropolitan area) is slowing faster, while municipality and exurbs (macrometropolitan area) is slowing slower.

And all those metropolitan arrangements around it, shielded São Paulo metro area from a rust belt type of decline.

Till today, 44% of manufacturing wages in Brazil are paid in São Paulo state. In the past, most of it was inside the metropolitan area. Nowadays, a big chunk of it migrated to Campinas, Jundiaí, Sorocaba and São José dos Campos regions. Equally, exurban sprawl, logistic centres are also just outside, in the Campinas-Sorocaba-Jundiaí triangle. Manufacturing moved just few kms away, not damaging local socialeconomics.
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  #55  
Old Posted Oct 31, 2018, 12:14 AM
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The strongest link in the Macrometropolis is between São Paulo and Campinas (100 km northwards), with Jundiaí region cramped half way. There is continuous (and dense) urban sprawl all over the regions. You can't notice while driving in the two highways (16 lanes overall) that connected this area.

That's how they behaved population wise (metro areas):

----------------------------- 2010 ------ 2000 --- Growth %
Code:
SÃO PAULO -------------- 19,683,975 -- 17,878,703 --- 10.10%
JUNDIAÍ ------------------- 633,273 ----- 529,990 --- 19.49%
CAMPINAS ---------------- 2,630,893 --- 2,209,558 --- 19.07%
Now, the growth on the links. Southern Campinas metro area (two municipalities, wealthier) and northwestern São Paulo metro area (four municipalities, poorer):

----------------------------- 2010 ------ 2000 --- Growth %
Code:
Northwest SP MA ----------- 436,719 ----- 363,842 --- 20.03%
South Camp MA ------------- 170,404 ----- 130,188 --- 30.89%
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  #56  
Old Posted Oct 31, 2018, 12:15 AM
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Originally Posted by Jonesy55 View Post
I don't think they will necessarily have population decline, that depends on immigration as well as internal births and deaths
The data I've read from the EU states otherwise. They're expected to lose population, while the UK and France will gain.
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  #57  
Old Posted Nov 6, 2018, 11:34 AM
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Originally Posted by Crawford View Post
Not only that, but this rural landscape is less than 4 miles from Essen city center (600k people) and maybe 1.5 miles from Bochum city center (400k people).

Germany has basically no sprawl. It's just little villages at the city edge, and new neighborhoods are only added within restricted boundaries.

Maize, BTW, was traditionally not for human consumption in Germany. It was typically only for livestock.
check out these maps and you will see you are quite wrong
http://luminocity3d.org/WorldPopDen/#9/51.2146/6.9337
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  #58  
Old Posted Nov 6, 2018, 4:12 PM
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Originally Posted by jonspx View Post
check out these maps and you will see you are quite wrong
http://luminocity3d.org/WorldPopDen/#9/51.2146/6.9337
I looked at that link, and have no idea what you're talking about.

What, exactly, are you arguing?
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