The Metropolises of Tomorrow

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by Acajack

So a switch is flicked and all of a sudden London rockets past New York?

Seems like there are lot of short cuts in logic are being taken here in order to rank cities higher than they'd otherwise be.

London? The area is described as "Greater Southeast England" in the chart. Are you reading something else in your screen? About the numbers and how they change, they are provided by both the US and UK statistical offices. Are you questioning their accuracy?

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by yuriandrade

London? The area is described as "Greater Southeast England" in the chart. Are you reading something else in your screen? About the numbers and how they change, they are provided by both the US and UK statistical offices. Are you questioning their accuracy?

The word "London" appeared in your own post you quoted.

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by Acajack

The word "London" appeared in your own post you quoted.

"London expanded area" as I casually called, where I specifically tell everybody who might be interested of what components are included. I did the same for every other city/region mentioned in this thread. Impossible to be more clear.

Please, if you are interested in a city vs city, that's not the place to do it.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by yuriandrade

"London expanded area" as I casually called, where I specifically tell everybody who might be interested of what components are included. I did the same for every other city/region mentioned in this thread. Impossible to be more clear.

Please, if you are interested in a city vs city, that's not the place to do it.

Quite the opposite in fact.

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by Acajack

Quite the opposite in fact.

Good then. In this case, needless to ridicule the thread or my post for no reason whatsoever. Every post is clear, with definitions used and with easily checkable data.

Also, I advice people to open their minds and avoid to discuss exclusively cities they love or hate. There are tons of metropolises/regions and growth curves to be analised. It should be an interesting exercise for people who participate of an urbanism forum.

[montréaliste]

Originally Posted by yuriandrade

Good then. In this case, needless to ridicule the thread or my post for no reason whatsoever. Every post is clear, with definitions used and with easily checkable data.

Also, I advice people to open their minds and avoid to discuss exclusively cities they love or hate. There are tons of metropolises/regions and growth curves to be analised. It should be an interesting exercise for people who participate of an urbanism forum.

Swimming in muddy waters much?

[urbancanadian]

I've always found this website to be pretty accurate for urban agglomerations:
http://citypopulation.de/world/Agglomerations.html

Obviously not everyone is going to be happy, but it seems to be unbiased and well researched in terms of urban boundaries, etc. FWIW, they have Jakarta at 28.1M. Guangzhou is first at 47.7M, followed by Tokyo at 39.5M.

Again, these numbers are for agglomerations, using their own definitions...

[thomaswhite544]

I found these informations very helpful to me.

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by urbancanadian

I've always found this website to be pretty accurate for urban agglomerations:
http://citypopulation.de/world/Agglomerations.html

Obviously not everyone is going to be happy, but it seems to be unbiased and well researched in terms of urban boundaries, etc. FWIW, they have Jakarta at 28.1M. Guangzhou is first at 47.7M, followed by Tokyo at 39.5M.

Again, these numbers are for agglomerations, using their own definitions...

There are obvious problems there: while Guangzhou and Shenzhen are too far apart with little exchange between them and are regarded as a single metro area, Jundiaí region (700,000 inh., 40km north from São Paulo), are not included in São Paulo metro area. The Ruhr Valley and Düsseldorf/Cologne are featured separately.

I didn't read the entire list, but I'm sure there are other similar situations. Overall, it's a good one.

[flash110]

It´s sad but population only doesn´t tell much about the "tomorrow look" of a city. Dubai has only about 2 millon people and yet it looks almost like Coruscant, Sao Paulo is massive, but it doesn´t look too futuristic

[Yuri]

I was introduced to this interesting tool called Population Explorer where you can find how many people live in a give radius (or any geometric form) that might be bring new insights to this discussion.

By Manitopiaaa (SSC):

So using the Population Explorer tool, I went back and looked at the 121km radius. I think this figure (which corresponds to 75 miles) is better, in American terms for finding the spheres of influence of a particular city. 1) 75 miles is typically the outer band of exurbs in a large metropolitan area. For instance, 75 miles is where the commuting ends in Washington, DC and is pretty close to the Combined Statistical Area population. 2) 75 miles is used by sports teams as market areas, 3) 75 miles was traditionally the limit of analog radio and TV signals pre-digital conversion. So central cities usually have television markets that extend about 75 miles. 4) 75 miles is typically what one drives in one hour on a highway, so it’s a rough gauge of how far can you go in an hour on the road (of course this varies between New York and Dallas). For European cities this is absurdly high. But for sprawly American cities, it’s the best measure.

Population within a 121km, or 75 miles, radius (numbers accounting for overlap; see below for explanation) for some major U.S. cities

1. Atlanta 6,548,841
2. Austin 3,960,892 (2,710,892)
3. Boston 8,392,217
4. Chicago 10,798,205
5. Columbus 4,009,955
6. Dallas 7,162,178
7. Denver 4,250,527
8. Detroit 7,100,213
9. Honolulu 995,168
10. Houston 6,569,516
11. Kansas City 2,720,468
12. Las Vegas 2,053,624
13. Los Angeles 17,509,396
14. Memphis 1,984,712
15. Miami 5,470,940
16. Minneapolis 4,197,768
17. New Orleans 2,581,957
18. New York 24,017,380 (22,017,380)
19. Orlando 5,708,336 (4,458,336)
20. Philadelphia 13,748,646 (10,548,646)
21. Phoenix 4,292,989
22. Portland 3,121,631
23. Saint Louis 3,247,989
24. Salt Lake City 2,510,984
25. San Antonio 3,148,104 (2,398,104)
26. San Diego 6,581,094 (5,781,094)
27. San Francisco 9,153,463
28. Seattle 4,577,679
29. Tampa 5,694,004 (4,454,004)
30. Washington 9,740,949 (9,690,949)

European Union

1. Barcelona 7,091,711
2. Berlin 6,840,791
3. London 22,330,296
4. Madrid 7,833,886
5. Manchester 18,645,430
6. Milan 13,537,596
7. Paris 15,639,058

Others

1. Istanbul 16,879,351
2. Melbourne 4,715,827
3. Montreal 5,596,258
4. Osaka 23,309,688
5. Seoul 29,357,181
6. Sydney 5,295,182
7. Tokyo 43,664,977
8. Toronto 10,134,317
9. Vancouver 3,732,740 (3,632,740)

(...)

Mine: in Brazil (121 km radius):

São Paulo --- 29,599,247

Rio de Janeiro --- 15,120,816

Recife --- 7,379,663

Belo Horizonte --- 7,171,595

Porto Alegre --- 6,121,917

Salvador --- 5,793,586

Curitiba --- 5,277,312

Fortaleza --- 4,620,445

Ribeirão Preto --- 4,153,023

Brasília --- 3,699,072

Belém --- 3,499,086

Maceió --- 3,368,525

Goiânia --- 3,214,737

Florianópolis --- 2,901,551

Vitória --- 2,932,409

Londrina --- 2,885,176

Aracaju --- 2,433,210

Natal --- 2,385,399

São Luís --- 2,321,833

Manaus --- 2,207,924

Teresina --- 1,882,748


Notes:

--- Counting only metro areas above 1 million and excluding the ones overlapping and we have important ones: Recife (João Pessoa); Curitiba (Joinville); Ribeirão Preto (Araraquara, São Carlos, Franca); Florianópolis (Blumenau, Itajaí); Londrina (Maringá), etc.

--- São Paulo way ahead New York and behind Mexico City (32,505,934 inh.), being the 2nd largest metro area of the American continent. Of course, 121 km radius around São Paulo includes the Atlantic Ocean. Moving the centre-point around to find more people (placing in near Jundiaí), São Paulo would go to 31,651,970.



-------------------------------------------------------------------



100 km radius around urban centres around the world:

AMERICA
Mexico City ------ 28,918,281
São Paulo -------- 28,194,459
New York --------- 21,180,904
Los Angeles ------ 16,747,949
Buenos Aires ----- 16,005,578
Rio de Janeiro --- 14,039,868
Bogotá ----------- 10,599,381
Chicago ---------- 10,024,549

EUROPE
London ----------- 19,664,483
Rhine-Ruhr ------- 18,071,098
Moscow ----------- 17,907,733
Istanbul --------- 15,805,839
Paris ------------ 13,958,374
Milan ------------ 11,419,061

AFRICA
Cairo ------------ 38,906,726
Lagos ------------ 17,231,437
Johannesburg ----- 12,453,677

ASIA
Dhaka ------------ 58,846,461
Calcutta --------- 47,837,685
New Delhi -------- 45,352,453
Guangzhou -------- 43,791,865
Tokyo ------------ 41,222,482
Beijing ---------- 28,985,310
Jakarta ---------- 37,570,088
Shanghai --------- 37,546,648
Manila ----------- 33,531,275
Hong Kong -------- 33,526,434
Seoul ------------ 27,239,623
Bombay ----------- 25,841,703
Hanoi ------------ 24,496,747
Chengdu ---------- 23,883,856
Tianjin ---------- 23,240,431
Nanjing ---------- 22,216,599
Wuhan ------------ 21,727,275
Osaka ------------ 21,072,740
Bangkok ---------- 20,405,398
Bangalore -------- 19,978,849
Saigon ----------- 19,600,669
Chongqing -------- 18,860,346
Xian ------------- 17,442,327
Changsha --------- 17,104,417
Shenyang --------- 16,567,371
Tehran ----------- 16,032,196
Karachi ---------- 14,860,512
Madras ----------- 14,561,889
Nagoya ----------- 13,675,550

75 km radius

AMERICA
Mexico City ------ 25,524,484
São Paulo -------- 24,270,507
New York --------- 18,562,272
Buenos Aires ----- 15,657,844
Los Angeles ------ 14,534,739
Rio de Janeiro --- 13,243,406

EUROPE
Moscow ----------- 16,627,004
London ----------- 16,184,780
Rhine-Ruhr ------- 13,729,579
Istanbul --------- 13,168,002
Paris ------------ 12,796,593

AFRICA
Cairo ------------ 29,565,960
Lagos ------------ 14,892,702
Johannesburg ----- 11,370,882

ASIA
Dhaka ------------ 41,173,026
Calcutta --------- 37,626,802
Tokyo ------------ 37,230,634
New Delhi -------- 35,655,661
Guangzhou -------- 33,707,358
Jakarta ---------- 32,376,755
Manila ----------- 28,842,947
Shanghai --------- 28,519,774
Seoul ------------ 24,764,071
Bombay ----------- 24,270,223
Beijing ---------- 23,470,451
Hong Kong -------- 21,736,359
Osaka ------------ 18,940,376
Chengdu ---------- 18,884,106
Hanoi ------------ 17,763,221
Bangkok ---------- 17,112,148
Bangalore -------- 16,396,446
Saigon ----------- 15,994,795
Tianjin ---------- 15,634,340
Tehran ----------- 15,581,252
Wuhan ------------ 15,350,276
Nanjing ---------- 15,163,540
Karachi ---------- 14,282,861
Xian ------------- 13,889,253
Chongqing -------- 13,667,671
Shenyang --------- 12,599,477
Changsha --------- 12,544,531
Madras ----------- 12,370,382
Nagoya ----------- 11,096,406

--- Many super dense rural areas are excluded with the 75km radius. Still, Asian regions are impressive;

--- US metro areas fell a lot without their exurbs. Chicago goes below 10 million. The distance between Chicago and NY/LA are much smaller then CSA numbers show.

[JustinSlick]

This last measure is really interesting. How do borders work though?

I am in NW Washington, but only about 50 miles from Vancouver so technically under this metric I'd be counted in the Vancouver CSA? But even though Vancouver is technically the closest city, I think most of us up here would be much more likely to consider ourselves under the "Seattle sphere of influence."

Although, wow.... looking at the map you can practically see the outline of "where the agglomeration would have been" if there hadn't been a border.

[chris08876]

Dhaka is insane. Its like the whole West Coast living in just 10,000 km2.

Its interesting to note the percent change going from 75 to 100 km radius. Especially in Asia.

Great thread yuriandrade as usual.

[Leo the Dog]

yuriandrade, appreciate the stats, just a couple thoughts...

A 75 mile radius is a HUGE geographical area and is definitely a stretch to include these fringe populations into the dominate city/metro stats. There are a lot of overlap of metro populations occurring. However, in western metros, like Phoenix, the figure is pretty accurate because these metros are isolated from other population centers. Some figures provide an accurate account of metro pop while others are highly inflated.

San Diego 6,581,094 (5,781,094)

In SD's case, this would include all of South OC and parts of Riverside County. I'm guessing it includes all of Tijuana and points south as well. The entire county of San Diego only contains 3.5 million people.

[isaidso]

Originally Posted by JustinSlick

This last measure is really interesting. How do borders work though?

I am in NW Washington, but only about 50 miles from Vancouver so technically under this metric I'd be counted in the Vancouver CSA? But even though Vancouver is technically the closest city, I think most of us up here would be much more likely to consider ourselves under the "Seattle sphere of influence."

Although, wow.... looking at the map you can practically see the outline of "where the agglomeration would have been" if there hadn't been a border.

Yes, metro Vancouver would have spread south all the way to Bellingham (or even further south to Mt. Vernon) if the border wasn't there.

[hammersklavier]

Originally Posted by PoshSteve

While the metro areas of Cleveland/Akron/Canton, Youngstown/Warren and Pittsburgh/Wheeling may not be growing in absolute population numbers, they all continue to sprawl out and closer together. They are far from being completely built up, urban areas in between, but then again, so is BosWash.

My $0.02:

This region -- a sort of L-shaped continuous conurbation that extends down Lake Erie from Buffalo and then up the Mahoning and Beaver river valleys to Pittsburgh -- suffers from a bit of a Balkans problem.

All three cities lie at trade route nexuses: from Buffalo, trade routes extend up the Mohawk Valley, along the Southern Tier, down the Allegheny River, into Canada, and along Lakes Erie and Ontario; from Pittsburgh, down the Ohio, up the Allegheny to Buffalo, up the Beaver and Mahoning to Cleveland, up the Beaver and Shenago to Erie, up the Monongahela to Morgantown and West Virginia, up the Kiskimentas and Conemaugh towards Philadelphia, and up the Youghiogheny towards the Potomac; from Cleveland, along Lake Erie to Buffalo and Toledo, up the Cuyahoga towards Columbus and Cincinnati, and down the Mahoning towards Pittsburgh.

While St. Louis sits at the single largest concentration of natural trade routes in the country -- significant enough that, had the railroads never developed, it would have become the Midwest's alpha city -- the cat's cradle of trade routes that the purportive Buffalo-Cleveland-Pittsburgh megalopolis sits on interlinks the Northeast and Midwest. All land and maritime traffic between those two regions must pass through at least one (and usually at least two) of the major cities in this region.

But that has also spawned a schizophrenic identity. Pittsburgh was originally settled from the Mid-Atlantic region, while Buffalo was settled by New Englanders and New Yorkers. Both look east. Cleveland looks west, to Chicago, as its alpha city. Settlement patterns also result in a second divide: between "Lakes" and "River" Midwests. This divide is so pernicious that Pittsburgh refuses to see Cleveland as a sister city despite them being only a hundred miles apart and linked via a continuous conurbation (i.e. the Mahoning Valley).

To make a long story short, Buffalo, Cleveland, and Pittsburgh already are a megacity -- just one that is unwilling to see itself as such.

[fflint]

Originally Posted by chris08876

Dhaka is insane. Its like the whole West Coast living in just 10,000 km2.

The figure for Dhaka is impressive, but no, it's not equivalent to the entire West Coast. California alone has 39.2 million residents, and Oregon and Washington together have another 11.2 million people.

[Yuri]

The UK just released their mid-2015 estimates:

London expanded area

2015: 23,698,077
2014: 23,430,890

Growth: 1.14%

London area is about to jump ahead New York CSA (23,723,696; 23,632,722; 0.38%), growing 3x faster. At this pace, they will reach 25.3 million people by the 2021 Census.

[ue]

delete

[nito]

The growth projections for London and the rest of the UK have proven to be completely out of wrack with reality.

To think that London’s population expanded by 135,024 in a single year is pretty staggering; that’s by my quick calculations twice the growth of New York City, and 50% higher than the New York CSA and MSA.

Of London’s 33 local authorities, the London Borough of Tower Hamlets (mid-2015 pop: 295,236) saw growth of 11,221, none experienced population loss.

The London Expanded Area that yuriandrae alludes to includes the South East and East regions which surround London; together with London these saw combined annual population growth of 267,187.

Whether Brexit has an impact in terms of increasing or decreasing future growth is yet to be seen.