Winnipeg Population Growth Estimates

[Winnipegger@Heart]

Yep. Let the chips fall where they may has been the motto, and will no doubt continue to be. Forget taking action.

[hexrae]

Originally Posted by Winnipegger@Heart

Yep. Let the chips fall where they may has been the motto, and will no doubt continue to be. Forget taking action.

I'm listening. Got any ideas? I'll participate in any solutions as I intend to make Winnipeg my lifelong home.

[thurmas]

Winnipeg was never going to stop the resource boom of Alberta Edmonton and Calgary were destined to overtake us because of oil money. However Winnipeg would be closer to them in population today if we had made better decisions ie: Having had the immigrant nominee program in place decades ago instead of just the past few years. More competitive tax rates, less time and money wasted on white elephants like Portage Place and more spent on things like rapid transit and better roads.

[Jets4Life]

Originally Posted by Winnipegger@Heart

For all you so-called mathematicians, it did not take that long for Calgary and Edmonton to overtake us, so Saskatoon will too. It took Calgary only about 30 years to go from half of our population in the mid 1960s to equalling ours in the mid to late 80s. Edmonton's population had been closer to ours during the 60s, but it did not take very long to overtake us.
.

I'm not sure where you get your historic figures from, but Calgary had only 50% of the population of Winnipeg just after WWII. Also, Calgary surpassed Winnipeg in population in 1981, not the late 80's. However, you are correct that it took Calgary 30 years to surpass us in population from having 1/2 of the population of Winnipeg. You just have the dates wrong.

Calgary is a unique example. Saskatoon won't surpass us in population anytime in the next 50 years, if ever.

[Winnipegger@Heart]

Originally Posted by Jets4Life

I'm not sure where you get your historic figures from, but Calgary had only 50% of the population of Winnipeg just after WWII. Also, Calgary surpassed Winnipeg in population in 1981, not the late 80's. However, you are correct that it took Calgary 30 years to surpass us in population from having 1/2 of the population of Winnipeg. You just have the dates wrong.

Calgary is a unique example. Saskatoon won't surpass us in population anytime in the next 50 years, if ever.

Yeah, no, I came across a delightful set of encycolpedias from the early 60s, and Winnipeg was at about 500 k, while Calgary was about 250-260 k.

[Winnipegger@Heart]

Originally Posted by hexrae

I'm listening. Got any ideas? I'll participate in any solutions as I intend to make Winnipeg my lifelong home.

(For Manitoba), a more vigorous approach to the "Arctic Bridge", capitalizing on Churchill's advantages as a port; accelerating Centreport, to start seeing high-paying jobs appear faster.

Last I read, Manitoba puts out 30,000 barrels of oil a day, while Saskatchewan was about 90,000, yet such a huge difference exists in the richness of the provinces: Saskatchewan is rich; we are not. We need to get serious about a massive increase in drilling here.

Electricty is our oil, and as such, we need to sell more of it.

Re-focusing efforts on making Winnipeg a bio-med hub.

[jmt18325]

Your Saskatchewan numbers are wrong. Last I reas, saskatchewan puts out 160M barrels per year...and most of their wealth comes frompotash anyway.

Also, speed up centreport how? Get more shipped through Churchill how? We're fixing the railway, but we don't hav the icebreakng capacity, and, as much as they like to pretend they do, neither does Russia. Besides, we don't want them doing it anyway.

There are many medical companies, and unfold billions have been spent on that. Anyway, hydro and medical stuff doesn't make oil money. Don't believe me? Just look at Quebec. Their economy is significantly smaller than ours per capita, while ours is similiar to Ontario and BC.

[1ajs]

i duno w rock you sleep under winnipeg@heart but ok...

[jmt18325]

http://www.er.gov.sk.ca/Fact-Sheets

See, 154M barrels in 2010.

And:

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manito...ion-rises.html

So in 5 years, Manitoba's production trippled to almost 11M barrels a year...and you're dissapointed in that?

Also, IIRC, Manitoba has little to no oil royalties, meaning other than corporate taxes, it does Nothing for Manitoba's fiscal capacity, at least, or until the royalty free period ends. We'll see the benefits in a few years.

[1ajs]

yea well allot of the oil is located on home stead land thats still owned by the familys who's forfathers settled there and as a result they have mineral rights witch has an affect on the royalties...

[khabibulin]

Originally Posted by 1ajs

yea well allot of the oil is located on home stead land thats still owned by the familys who's forfathers settled there and as a result they have mineral rights witch has an affect on the royalties...

"The Crown owns all land in Manitoba. Only 10% of Crown land has been placed in freehold tenure and the remaining Crown land remains in the possession of the Crown, directly, and is administered by the Provincial Government."

http://www.whoownstheworld.com/canada/4/

[Authentic_City]

Originally Posted by khabibulin

"The Crown owns all land in Manitoba. Only 10% of Crown land has been placed in freehold tenure and the remaining Crown land remains in the possession of the Crown, directly, and is administered by the Provincial Government."

http://www.whoownstheworld.com/canada/4/

"Up to 80 per cent of the mineral rights in Manitoba's oil patch are privately held, while the Crown owns the rest, according to the Manitoba Petroleum Branch."

Winnipeg Free Press - PRINT EDITION
Oil wells a boon for Manitoba families
Unlike many others, they retain rights

By: Bill Redekop

Posted: 02/16/2010 1:00 AM

Source: http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/loc...-84437487.html

[ILYR]

As far as oil production in Manitoba one has to consider basic geology. The simple fact is there is not a lot of oil in Manitoba, especially compared with Saskatchewan, Alberta and even BC. So no matter how much we were to drill, our maximum production will never come close to the other western provinces. Thus, we will never reap the massive benefits of the oil and gas sector. Again this is just a simple fact of geology and not government. So if Manitoba and Winnipeg are to keep pace they will have to be far more innovative and take advantages of what we do have: mineral resources, hydro electricity, wind power, agriculture, manufacturing, aerospace, transportation and shipping ...

[bkd]

It has already been said but you've got to wait for the under-count numbers to come in during the next year and a bit before taking these numbers seriously. Almost every CMA showed lesser growth than what was expected due to a number of contributing factors. People not filling out the census, transient populations that move from dwelling to dwelling etc.

I know that the three western cities, Calgary, Edmonton and Vancouver all expected higher numbers as well. Not sure about other cities but when the AB cities conduct their civic census, they both are expecting the numbers to be significantly higher. Mandel said he expects Edmonton's to show at-least 830,000 for the city itself which is a bump of at the very least 20,000 over the federal results.

So take the early results with a big grain of salt!

[spiritedenergy]

i was looking at the population density maps, and I noticed downtown is more dense than downtowns of the other 4 prairie cities... Less than Ottawa though.

That is interesting, the oil boom did not really change the suburban way of life of cities in the prairies.

[roccerfeller]

Originally Posted by bkd

It has already been said but you've got to wait for the under-count numbers to come in during the next year and a bit before taking these numbers seriously. Almost every CMA showed lesser growth than what was expected due to a number of contributing factors. People not filling out the census, transient populations that move from dwelling to dwelling etc.

I know that the three western cities, Calgary, Edmonton and Vancouver all expected higher numbers as well. Not sure about other cities but when the AB cities conduct their civic census, they both are expecting the numbers to be significantly higher. Mandel said he expects Edmonton's to show at-least 830,000 for the city itself which is a bump of at the very least 20,000 over the federal results.

So take the early results with a big grain of salt!

Great points, and, makes sense.

Census was off the mark for us here too, by at the very least 20k


We'll have to wait for the undercounts before making judgements. For now, I am going to go with the city's projections.

[kattiff]

just regarding to the oil in manitoba thing.
but i have family and a lot of friends that have showed me how much more oil that saskatchewan has then alberta. saskatchewan is HUGE HUGE with oil like Alberta has <---> that much and Sask has like <-------> if that makes sense. Sask doesnt want to get into the oil yet becuase they are looking at cleaner ways to getting it and not having the whole world going you are just like Alberta all dirty etc. etc. but Saskatchewan is loaded with oil.
now for Manitoba, Ive been told that the oil by Virden was a mistake and was by accident. They wanted to keep that oil reserve on stanby just incase something was to have happened to Alberta but they didnt of course and there is so much coal in Manitoba and diamonds and i think even more gold just in the central western side along the sk border.
but i thought i would share my two cents of something i know of. just it manitoba was to get into these mining things that would help Winnipeg.

and I have a friend in Calgary that has said over and over that he has read that Winnipeg will become like a Toronto because of some global stock market for the farming or something like that and due to CentrePort. just my friend has such high hopes for Winnipeg. anyway thats all i know and thought id share

[Winnipegger@Heart]

I used to have high hopes for Winnipeg, especially when Winnport (the prequel to Centreport) was formed, there was a major push to make Winnipeg a bio-med hub...but alas, like most ventures here, they fade away.

We may not have the oil, but the point is that we need higher paying jobs here to not only keep people here, but to attract skilled inter-provincial migrants.

[Tower Crane]

After reading the last page of posts I see some folks are just pulling their heads out of the sand or waking up from a self induced, local media slanted headlines over the last year, and or the local government rose coloured glasses kool-aid is wearing off.

Winnipegs right in the middle of the pack right where it should be based on the City's / Manitoba's efforts, no booms and no busts which local media states is a good thing but then again this promotes slow growth which in turn the same media cranks out half true headlines of how fast things are growing where some of you forum junkies buy into it and think things are growing by leaps and bounds.

That said, no surprises for anyone being real, slow growth fuelled primarily by aggressive international immigration not by the droves of people moving back as suggested ( the math and numbers have never proved that out ).
Its good to pull out the measuring stick every five years, whether you like the results or not it tells you where your at and the smart student ( city ) would take that information and make improvements should they want a better showing on the next report card.

We know where we at, now where are we headed over the next five years?

[jmt18325]

And how are you going to bring more high paying jobs here?

And how is being in the middle of the pack bad? How is that being caused ny anything that Manitoba's government or local governments are doing? The reality is, no provide, especially one this close, can completely eliminate the draw of the resource fueled boom in the provinces to the west. It isn't something that we did or didn't do.