Hamilton Population 2020?

[realcity]

Ha, you mentioned IF. I presented to Keanin a thorough marketing plan and creative direction, which I was asked "Can I afford you?". Of course I want in on this program... whatever you can budget. To which I didn't get the job, a firm in Waterloo got the contract... so much for a publicly funded corporation hired to promote LOCAL business.

[thistleclub]

Originally Posted by drpgq

With regards to the lower city losing population, how true is that over the last couple of years?

We’ll know better once the 2016 Census drops.

Historic trendlines: Ward 2's population increased by 161 between the 2006 and 2011 Censuses while Wards 1, 3, 4 & 5 net population dropped by 2,280 in that same time.

Between 2001 and 2006, Ward 1-5 population dropped by 4,533 (2.4%). Between 2006 and 2011, it dropped by 2,159 (1.2%).

Originally Posted by drpgq

Haven't vacancy rates in those wards come down significantly?

CMHC Rental Market Report, Fall 2015, Figure 4:

Central
2014: 3.6%
2015: 5.0%

East End
2014: 1.1%
2015: 4.2%

West End
2014: 3.0%
2015: 4.1%

Downtown Core
2014: 3.0%
2015: 4.1%

[drpgq]

Originally Posted by thistleclub

We’ll know better once the 2016 Census drops.

Historic trendlines: Ward 2's population increased by 161 between the 2006 and 2011 Censuses while Wards 1, 3, 4 & 5 net population dropped by 2,280 in that same time.

Between 2001 and 2006, Ward 1-5 population dropped by 4,533 (2.4%). Between 2006 and 2011, it dropped by 2,159 (1.2%).



CMHC Rental Market Report, Fall 2015, Figure 4:

Central
2014: 3.6%
2015: 5.0%

East End
2014: 1.1%
2015: 4.2%

West End
2014: 3.0%
2015: 4.1%

Downtown Core
2014: 3.0%
2015: 4.1%

I have to say I find those vacancy numbers between 2014 and 2015 a bit strange. Although to be fair I recently got a postcard in the mail at my apartment building advertising units at the Villa Marie complex for $695 for a one bedroom and $795 for a two bedroom plus the first month of rent was free. So maybe things have softened over one year.

[drpgq]

Originally Posted by realcity

Ha, you mentioned IF. I presented to Keanin a thorough marketing plan and creative direction, which I was asked "Can I afford you?". Of course I want in on this program... whatever you can budget. To which I didn't get the job, a firm in Waterloo got the contract... so much for a publicly funded corporation hired to promote LOCAL business.

He's now in charge of the Chamber of Commerce.

I wonder if he will continue to employ out-of-town services, maybe the napkin folders for the ballroom will come from Kitchener. Keanin is a dick in waiting for a political appointment after appointment until he ultimately becomes a professional politician.

No comment.

[thistleclub]

Originally Posted by drpgq

I have to say I find those vacancy numbers between 2014 and 2015 a bit strange.

The numbers will also be impacted by the relative demand for certain kinds of units, since supply (and quality) varies by area.

Calculated from Table 1.1.3 in the Fall 2015 CMHC Rental Market Report, here's the percentage of private apartment units by zone and bedroom type:

West End
Bach: 3.6%
1 BR: 46.8%
2 BR: 42.0%
3+ BR: 7.6%

Central
Bach: 7.3%
1 BR: 44.6%
2 BR: 38.8%
3+ BR: 9.4%

Downtown Core
Bach: 7.7%
1 BR: 55.7%
2 BR: 35.9%
3+ BR: 1.7%

Central East
Bach: 5.9%
1 BR: 50.3%
2 BR: 39.1%
3+ BR: 4.7%

Mountain
Bach: 2.9%
1 BR: 42.2%
2 BR: 49.3%
3+ BR: 5.6%

Hamilton City [Wards 1-8]
Bach: 5.0%
1 BR: 47.1%
2 BR: 43.1%
3+ BR: 4.8%

[SteelTown]

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/hamilt...ions-1.3629855

Hamilton will grow to 633,000 residents over the next 10 years, and a new report recommends how to realign its ward boundaries to accommodate that.

The new report from Watson and Associates Economists Ltd. says Hamilton will grow by 12 per cent – or 68,000 people – by 2026. Right now, it has 565,270.

The largest growth will be in Glanbrook, most of which is in Ward 11. In 2015, the report says, Glanbrook had 43,690 people. By 2026, it will have 78,850.

The report also predicts significant population growth in Waterdown, the downtown core, Ancaster-upper west Mountain, Fruitland-Winona, Binbrook and the east Mountain-Elfrida.

Wards by current population (2015 figures) with 2026 projections in brackets

Ward 1: 41,340 (43,900)
Ward 2: 40,635 (45,225)
Ward 3: 40,365 (40,125)
Ward 4: 36,040 (35,325)
Ward 5: 39,835 (40,625)
Ward 6: 41,025 (38,850)
Ward 7: 62,435 (63,000)
Ward 8: 53,875 (55,100)
Ward 9: 29,980 (41,700)
Ward 10: 25,130 (24,825)
Ward 11: 43,690 (78,850)
Ward 12: 39,510 (45,075)
Ward 13: 25,310 (24,350)
Ward 14: 16,640 (16,075)
Ward 15: 29,460 (39,850)

[thistleclub]

The new report from Watson and Associates Economists Ltd. says Hamilton will grow by 12 per cent – or 68,000 people – by 2026. Right now, it has 565,270.

Watson & Associates (June 2016):

4.2 Forecast Population Growth, 2015-2026

In order to evaluate the existing ward structure and subsequent alternatives in terms of representation by population over the next three municipal elections (i.e. 2018, 2022 and 2026), a detailed population forecast was developed for the City and its communities and neighbourhoods.

Population growth over the 2015-2026 period was identified on a neighbourhood level guided by the City of Hamilton’s Growth Related Integrated Development Strategy (GRIDS), a review of opportunities to accommodate future residential growth and discussions with City planning staff.

The City is expected to experience moderately strong population growth and shifts over the next decade. By 2026, Hamilton’s population is expected to reach approximately 633,000,1 an increase of 12% (68,000 people). The highest population growth is anticipated in Glanbrook with an increase of 82%, followed by Stoney Creek (33%), Flamborough (23%) and Ancaster (13%), as illustrated in Figure 3. In comparison, Lower Hamilton and Upper Hamilton are expected to have more moderate growth of 3% and 0%, respectively. Over the forecast period, the population of Dundas is expected to decline by 3%."

GRIDS (May 2006):

1.4 Growth Forecasts for Hamilton

In 2005, the Province released growth forecasts for the Greater Golden Horseshoe and one of these forecasts has been incorporated into the draft Places to Grow Plan. Population, household and employment forecasts represent the cornerstones for the GRIDS planning process.…

1.5 Our Neighbourhoods and Communities are Changing

Using the forecasts in the Growth Outlook for the Greater Golden Horseshoe, Hemson Consulting provided the City with a series of more detailed population values for Hamilton. The City’s Long Range Planning Diversion updated these detailed forecasts for its small areas (i.e. Dundas, Flamborough, Lower Stoney Creek, Upper Stoney Creek, Ancaster, Glanbrook, Lower Hamilton and Upper Hamilton) based on existing and planned development trends to develop a base case scenario for growth. The results of this exercise show the population of Hamilton (both rural and urban areas) increasing by approximately 68,843 people from 500,217 in 2001 to 569,061 in 2031. If traditional growth patterns continue, this growth will not be uniformly distributed across the City of Hamilton but rather will be concentrated primarily in Flamborough (i.e. Waterdown), Glanbrook (i.e. Binbrook), and Upper Hamilton.

Going further back down the rabbit hole, here's The Growth Outlook for the Greater Golden Horseshoe (Jan 2005), the broad-brush version of Hemson Consulting’s "more detailed population values" cohort that shaped GRIDS.

Hemson’s forecast also seems to have been one of the earliest appearances of the GTHA formulation (here called the GTAH, or Greater Toronto Area-Hamilton).

[drpgq]

Originally Posted by SteelTown

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/hamilt...ions-1.3629855


Wards by current population (2015 figures) with 2026 projections in brackets

Ward 1: 41,340 (43,900)
Ward 2: 40,635 (45,225)
Ward 3: 40,365 (40,125)
Ward 4: 36,040 (35,325)
Ward 5: 39,835 (40,625)
Ward 6: 41,025 (38,850)
Ward 7: 62,435 (63,000)
Ward 8: 53,875 (55,100)
Ward 9: 29,980 (41,700)
Ward 10: 25,130 (24,825)
Ward 11: 43,690 (78,850)
Ward 12: 39,510 (45,075)
Ward 13: 25,310 (24,350)
Ward 14: 16,640 (16,075)
Ward 15: 29,460 (39,850)

Interesting. Ward 2 way up, but wards 3 and 4 very slight decreases. Better than decreases they used to see I guess. I could see 3 and 4 actually seeing some slight increases as increasing property prices bring back some derelict supply.

[thistleclub]

The 2015 estimates are indeed interesting. Will be curious to see how they stack up against 2016 Census data. The consultants’ current numbers suggest not just a halt to 40 years’ of erosion in Wards 1-5 but dramatic gains: 2015 population estimate for Lower Hamilton (roughly 10% higher than its 2011 standing) would be a 35-year high.

1956: 200,037
1961: 198,689
1966: 203,627
1971: 207,572
1976: 202,045
1981: 194,537
1986: 189,924
1991: 187,181
1996: 185,118
2001: 186,938
2006: 182,405
2011: 180,246

Here are the ward populations at time of 2011 Census and, in parentheses, Watson & Associates’ 2015 ward population estimates.

Ward 01: 29,496 (41,340)
Ward 02: 37,941 (40,635)
Ward 03: 39,090 (40,365)
Ward 04: 34,978 (36,040)
Ward 05: 38,741 (39,835)
Ward 06: 40,293 (41,025)
Ward 07: 60,281 (62,435)
Ward 08: 49,661 (53,875)
Ward 09: 27,171 (29,980)
Ward 10: 24,278 (25,130)
Ward 11: 36,109 (43,690)
Ward 12: 34,825 (39,510)
Ward 13: 24,907 (25,310)
Ward 14: 16,897 (16,640)
Ward 15: 25,281 (29,460)

Wards 01-05: 180,248 (198,215) = 10.0% growth
Wards 06-08: 150,235 (157,335) = 4.7% growth
Wards 09-15: 189,468 (209,720) = 10.7% growth

The Jan 2005 Hemson data that shaped GRIDS forecast Hamilton going from a 2001 population of approximately 510,000 to a 2031 population of 660,000. That was reined in with June 2013, when Hemson revised its forecasts for Hamilton’s population growth. Here are Hemson’s 2013 projections, along with Ministry of Finance Population Projections and corresponding census findings from StatsCan (in parentheses):

2001: 510,000 / 510,100 (490,260)
2006: 524,000 / 523,800 (504,559)
2011: 540,000 / 540,200 (519,949)
2016: 568,000 / 560,100
2021: 601,000 / 580,100
2026: 640,000 / 602,800
2031: 683,000 / 626,800
2036: 732,000 / 651,100

Two additional items of note: Watson & Associates’ 2015 estimates and 2026 projections include permanent and post-secondary student population and a Census undercount of approximately 3.8%.

Regarding the former: “The study also considers the City’s post-secondary student population which includes students attending McMaster University, Mohawk College, Redeemer University College and Brock University’s Hamilton Campus. A large share of the City’s postsecondary students is not considered to consist of permanent residents; it is not captured in Statistics Census population data and not typically reflected in conventional population reporting. For the purposes of assessing representation by population, the population data utilized in this study reflects both the City’s permanent and nonpermanent post-secondary student population.”

Regarding the latter, StatsCan figures have Hamilton lagging provincial population projections by around 20,000 individuals, or approximately 3.8%. StatsCan's estimated census net undercoverage for Ontario at the time of the 2001 & 2006 censuses was 3.81%; under the 2011 Census, Ontario’s CNU had fallen to 2.91%. Watson's estimates are based on 2005-era data and so reflect greater wobble.

+

Since they're an integral part of the Ward Boundaries Review Interim Report, here are more GRIDS Projections (2006-2031):

Lower Hamilton (Wards 1-5)
Upper Hamilton (Wards 6-8)
Stoney Creek (Wards 9-10)
Glanbrook (Ward 11)
Ancaster (Ward 12)
Dundas (Ward 13)
Flamborough (Wards 14-15)

[thistleclub]

Originally Posted by drpgq

With regards to the lower city losing population, how true is that over the last couple of years?

Via City of Hamilton, Census Population for the City of Hamilton by Ward, 2016 (vs 2011):

Ward 01: 29,765 (+270)
Ward 02: 37,155 (-785)
Ward 03: 37,735 (-1,355)
Ward 04: 35,000 (+20)
Ward 05: 37,160 (-1,580)
Ward 06: 40,290 (-5)
Ward 07: 60,770 (+490)
Ward 08: 52,220 (+2,560)
Ward 09: 30,015 (+2,845)
Ward 10: 24,140 (-140)
Ward 11: 45,180 (+9,070)
Ward 12: 38,745 (+3,920)
Ward 13: 24,285 (-625)
Ward 14: 15,995 (-905)
Ward 15: 28,475 (+3,195)


Between 2011 and 2016:
• Ward 1-5 population decreased by 3,430 (-1.9%)
• Ward 6-8 population increased by 3,045 (+2.0%)
• Ward 9-15 population increased by 17,360 (+9.2%)

Between 2001 and 2016:
• Ward 1-5 population decreased by 10,123 (-5.4%)
• Ward 6-8 population increased by 9,909 (+6.9%)
• Ward 9-15 population increased by 47,705 (+30.0%)

[drpgq]

I was kind of hopeful that Ward 2 would see an increase this census period, but I guess we'll have to wait for the next one.

[CaptainKirk]

Originally Posted by drpgq

I was kind of hopeful that Ward 2 would see an increase this census period, but I guess we'll have to wait for the next one.

Yeah it would have been intersting to see ward 2 year for year after 2006.

[thistleclub]

Here's another take on Ward 2 population.

1986: 35,865
1991: 36,550
1996: 36,699
2001: 38,440
2006: 37,795
2011: 37,940
2016: 37,155

1986-2001, Ward 2's population increased by 2,575.
2001-2016, Ward 2's population decreased by 1,285.
1986-2016, Ward 2's population increased by 1,290.

SOURCES: 1986-1996 / 2001-2016.

[thistleclub]

In light of perennial ward redistribution & transit services debates…

Population Density Per Net Residential Hectare, 2013

Ward 1: 80.1
Ward 2: 196.6
Ward 3: 132.1
Ward 4: 85.9
Ward 5: 79.7
Ward 6: 65.9
Ward 7: 70.6
Ward 8: 57.6
Ward 9: 58.2
Ward 10: 48.0
Ward 11: 21.6
Ward 12: 27.9
Ward 13: 41.0
Ward 14: 9.6
Ward 15: 17.3

SOURCE: Planning Department (Community Planning, GIS Section), 2013 Year End Land Use, via City of Hamilton Ward Profiles

[thistleclub]

An update to a 2012 population overview post:

Former City of Hamilton (Wards 1-8) ◊
1956: 250,914
1961: 273,991
1966: 298,121
1971: 309,173
1976: 312,005
1981: 306,435
1986: 306,730
1991: 318,500
1996: 322,350
2001: 330,310
2006: 329,845
2011: 330,481
2016: 330,095

79,181 residents added (32% net growth) 1956-2016
20,922 residents added (7% net growth) 1971-2016
215 residents lost (<0.01% net loss) 2001-2016

SEGMENTED:

Hamilton, Lower City (Wards 1-5) נ
1956: 200,037
1961: 198,689
1966: 203,627
1971: 207,572
1976: 202,045
1981: 194,537
1986: 189,924
1991: 187,181
1996: 185,118
2001: 186,938
2006: 182,405
2011: 180,246
2016: 176,815

23,222 residents lost (12% net loss) 1956-2016
30,757 residents lost (15% net loss) 1971-2016
10,123 residents lost (5% net loss) 2001-2016

Hamilton Mountain (Wards 6-8) נ
1956: 50,877
1961: 75,302
1966: 94,494
1971: 101,601
1976: 109,960
1981: 111,897
1986: 116,810
1991: 131,318
1996: 137,234
2001: 143,371
2006: 147,440
2011: 150,235
2016: 153,280

102,403 residents added (201% net growth) 1956-2016
51,679 residents added (51% net growth) 1971-2016
9,864 residents added (7% net growth) 2001-2016


+

Suburbs (Wards 9-15)
1956: 52,455
1961: 74,190
1966: 84,999
1971: 92,066
1976: 97,490
1981: 105,010
1986: 116,655
1991: 130,160
1996: 145,475
2001: 159,147
2006: 174,715
2011: 189,468
2016: 206,835

154,380 residents added (294% net growth) 1956-2016
114,769 residents added (125% net growth) 1971-2016
47,688 residents added (30% net growth) 2001-2016

SEGMENTED:

Glanbrook-Stoney Creek (Wards 9-11) ◊
1956: 17,378
1961: 29,738
1966: 34,121
1971: 37,309
1976: 40,475
1981: 46,530
1986: 53,145
1991: 56,695
1996: 64,885
2001: 69,472
2006: 77,570
2011: 87,558
2016: 99,335

81,957 residents added (472% net growth) 1956-2016
62,026 residents added (166% net growth) 1971-2016
29,863 residents added (43% net growth) 2001-2016

Ancaster (Ward 12) ◊
1956: 9,157
1961: 13,338
1966: 14,960
1971: 15,087
1976: 14,255
1981: 14,425
1986: 17,260
1991: 21,985
1996: 23,403
2001: 25,297
2006: 31,040
2011: 35,120
2016: 38,745

29,588 residents added (323% net growth) 1956-2016
23,658 residents added (157% net growth) 1971-2016
13,448 residents added (53% net growth) 2001-2016

Dundas (Ward 13) ◊
1956: 10,886
1961: 12,912
1966: 15,501
1971: 18,740
1976: 19,180
1981: 19,585
1986: 20,115
1991: 21,865
1996: 23,125
2001: 24,394
2006: 24,695
2011: 24,907
2016: 24,285

14,021 residents added (128% net growth) 1956-2011
5,545 residents added (30% net growth) 1971-2016
109 residents lost (0.3% net loss) 2001-2016

Flamborough (Wards 14+15) ◊‡
1956: 15,034
1961: 18,202
1966: 20,417
1971: 20,930
1976: 23,580
1981: 24,470
1986: 26,135
1991: 29,615
1996: 34,035
2001: 39,984
2006: 41,410
2011: 41,883
2016: 44,470

29,436 residents added (196% net growth) 1956-2016
23,540 residents added (112% net growth) 1971-2016
4,486 residents added (11% net growth) 2001-2016


--

DATA SOURCES:

◊ Hamilton 1956-1996, 2001, 2006, 2011, 2016
∆ Burlington 1971-2011
§ Grimsby 1981, 1991-2011
† Segmented Hamilton: 1956-1996, 2001, 2006, 2011 & 2016
‡ Post-2000, ward data fused to reflect pre-amalgamation boundaries

[drpgq]

Of course even with those massive population losses in the lower city, Thorne and Robichaud can't allow anything over 30 stories to try and reverse that. And people wonder why retail and office vacancy has struggled for decades downtown.

[LRTfan]

Originally Posted by drpgq

Of course even with those massive population losses in the lower city, Thorne and Robichaud can't allow anything over 30 stories to try and reverse that. And people wonder why retail and office vacancy has struggled for decades downtown.

it's the Hamilton way. Vancouver, Toronto, Calgary all have seen massive growth in the downtowns the last 20 years and they keep upping their game attracting more growth. They know you either grow, or die.
Hamilton has decided that we are ok with death and decay. So sad.

[Innsertnamehere]

Restricting buildings to 30 storeys isn't going to reduce stock. It's not like Hamilton is lacking spots to build - it will simply spread the stock over more projects. there is only so much demand for new build condos - whether it gets met with three 40 storey buildings or four 30 storey buildings won't change how much gets built.

[drpgq]

Originally Posted by Innsertnamehere

Restricting buildings to 30 storeys isn't going to reduce stock. It's not like Hamilton is lacking spots to build - it will simply spread the stock over more projects. there is only so much demand for new build condos - whether it gets met with three 40 storey buildings or four 30 storey buildings won't change how much gets built.

Theoretically Hamilton has a lot of spots to build, but in practice a lot of them aren't really available. Like the DeSantis space by the Lister Block. If someone wants to build higher than 30 downtown why not let them, rather than some arbitrary, artificial limit. Hamilton needs more supply, for a lot of different reasons.

[lachlanholmes]

Originally Posted by drpgq

Theoretically Hamilton has a lot of spots to build, but in practice a lot of them aren't really available. Like the DeSantis space by the Lister Block. If someone wants to build higher than 30 downtown why not let them, rather than some arbitrary, artificial limit. Hamilton needs more supply, for a lot of different reasons.

This.