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  #9221  
Old Posted Jan 3, 2019, 10:43 PM
isaidso isaidso is offline
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Originally Posted by someone123 View Post

If BC weren't full of mountains it would have a huge amount of development and population. It would be like a New World version of France or Germany.
I suppose all BC can hope for is to be a New World version of 10 Switzerlands: 85 million people and a GDP of $6.8 trillion.
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Last edited by isaidso; Jan 3, 2019 at 11:12 PM.
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  #9222  
Old Posted Jan 3, 2019, 11:25 PM
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The only way Australia or Canada could factor in a global RE slowdown is if they are the "canary in the coal mine" signalling the collapse of China's Ponzi-like real estate market. If you thought the USA pre-2008 was bad read this:

Empty Homes and Protests: China’s Property Market Strains the World
A glut of unwanted apartments gets part of the blame for a slowdown in the world’s second-largest economy. In some places, homeowners are taking to the streets.

...In 2016, some 49,000 apartments were sold in Jurong, a remarkable number for a city where the annual average is closer to 4,000, according to Huifeng Li, a research director at the Purple Mountain Digital New Media Research Institute in Nanjing. The majority of the new buyers these days are speculators, he said.

Mr. Hu added: “Mostly it’s buyers who are looking for investments who come here. They see opportunities here.”

Hundreds of buildings sprang up, offering a glimpse of a future bustling city. Now, these partly constructed buildings have more of a ghost town feel.

At the Center Park development site, green netting drapes over a dozen half-built apartment buildings, construction cranes on top of each. Men with white gloves stand at the sales office, from which soft jazz music is playing, waiting to greet prospective buyers. But there are few customers, and the greeters mostly look bored.

At the back of the office, a dozen real estate agents sit around coffee tables and stare at their phones.

After a tour of the show apartments, Mr. Wang said quietly, “I wouldn’t buy an apartment from them.”


https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/30/b...&region=Footer
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  #9223  
Old Posted Jan 4, 2019, 6:10 AM
ssiguy ssiguy is offline
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Australia and BC have built a house of cards economy based on real estate. It is based upon dirty money and house flipping always on the assumption that prices will always go up because `it`s different here` which you hear constantly in Vancouver like somehow economic gravity laws don`t apply. Now things have changed and people are having to admit that it isn`t different here. Vancouver just released it sales for the total of 2018 and they were lower than at anytime in the last 18 years which includes the recession of 2008.


Australia and BC are heading quickly towards a complete housing implosion and it will bring much of their respective economies down with it. The pain will be severe but is badly needed and the short-term pain is worth the long-term gain. Due to the skyhigh costs of living and hence wages needed to live there, much of Australia`s economy has disappeared. Over the last 20 years Australia has completely deindustrialized and the very last auto plant closed down in 2018 marking the first time since 1905 that Australia no longer produces any vehicles.


BC has never had any manuacturing but it`s problems are with labour that businesses can`t find and land costs where businesses cannot afford to expand. BC had a net lose of people interprovincially according to the 2nd quarter stats and has a very low bith rate due to having the oldest population west of the Atlantic provinces and those in child rearing years not have any or far fewer kids because they sinmply can`t afford them.


A housing based economy is also a false one. It makes the politicians feel good because it props up the economy but it is very unhealthy and unsustainable. Building and flipping houses is a very low productivity endevor requiring the same technological proess as it did in the 1950s.
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  #9224  
Old Posted Jan 4, 2019, 6:57 AM
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You've been posting the same thing for years now. Like a stopped clock, eventually you'll be right.
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  #9225  
Old Posted Jan 4, 2019, 1:36 PM
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https://m.facebook.com/story.php?sto...41163402640457

I know this is in California, but this is just so next-level.

Apparently, it’s also feasible in Canada though. One man in Calgary lived in an RV for a while (4 years) to save $40,000.
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  #9226  
Old Posted Jan 4, 2019, 10:43 PM
lio45 lio45 is online now
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Originally Posted by logan5 View Post
You've been posting the same thing for years now. Like a stopped clock, eventually you'll be right.
Actually, you're incorrect there: if the people who are on the "the current values are sound and justified, there's no bubble" side of the argument are right, then ssiguy will never be right.

This argument opposes people who think Van prices are out of whack therefore it's a bubble that will end up popping at some point, to people who think Van prices are reasonable and there's no bubble. Any "crash" in values, at any point, immediately makes the former correct.
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  #9227  
Old Posted Jan 5, 2019, 12:26 AM
rbt rbt is offline
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Actually, you're incorrect there: if the people who are on the "the current values are sound and justified, there's no bubble" side of the argument are right, then ssiguy will never be right.

If he maintains a %age based drop for another 8 years (and perhaps 8 more years yet again) he's still likely to be right regardless of todays fundamentals.

I'm far more interested in hearing from those who believe a return to ~2006 pricing levels (adjusted for wage inflation?), as predicted on page #1, will occur. I'm not even sure what that would be as a %age decrease from today's market prices.
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  #9228  
Old Posted Jan 5, 2019, 4:41 AM
zahav zahav is offline
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Honestly even a return to 2010-13 levels would be easily possible and a good thing, if you look at the price graphs the major run-up was from late 2014 onwards. It went up exponentially. I think a return to 2013 prices is definitely possible.

I think what the difference is between a bubble and a correction is the shock. Prices have been trending down for almost 2 years now, all while the rest of the economy is doing well. A bubble is a sudden collapse and sudden shock to the economy (ie. 2008). If the sales and prices fall but don't bring the entire economy down with it, I wouldn't classify it as a crash. ssiguy has been saying a crash is coming, but every figure says it is a corection and over a period where the economy is adjusting to it, so there is no big bang.

The jobs report came out today, and yet again empolyment increased in BC, and was higher than Quebec, Ontario, and Alberta. For 2018 year overall, this is directly from the StatsCan release:

In Ontario, employment grew by 78,000 (+1.1%) in 2018, all in full-time work. The unemployment rate in the province edged down 0.2 percentage points to 5.4%, the second lowest rate among the provinces. Employment gains were recorded in several industries, led by transportation and warehousing, and educational services. These gains were partially offset by declines in wholesale and retail trade as well as in information, culture and recreation.

In 2018, employment in British Columbia increased by 44,000, almost entirely in full-time work. Employment grew by 1.8%, double the national average, while the unemployment rate edged down to 4.4%, still the lowest among the provinces. Employment gains were spread across several industries, led by professional, scientific and technical services. At the same time, declines were recorded in finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing.

Following losses in late 2015 and early 2016 in the aftermath of declining oil prices, employment in Alberta recovered in 2017 (+55,000 or +2.4%). Employment continued to grow in 2018, up 22,000 (+0.9%). All the gains in 2018 were in full-time work, and were spread across a number of industries. The unemployment rate in Alberta fell from 7.0% at the end of 2017 to 6.4% at the end of 2018.

Following robust growth in 2017, employment in Quebec was unchanged in 2018. With more people looking for work, the unemployment rate increased by 0.5 percentage points to 5.5% at the end of 2018.


So I find all of these sky is falling claims tiresome at this point. We are two years into the correction, prices have been down, and employment in real estate is clearly reflecting that. If this was a crash, it would be pulling everything down and it's not, there are jobs gains in lots of other areas offsetting it.

For all of the talk on the forums of Quebec's economy firing on all cylinders, it isn't actually happening. The unemployment rate is low but job growth is stagnant. I am not saying that to pick on Quebec, I am just pointing out this fact for people who think BC is imploding. I live and work in a finance related industry here and the economic situation is hardly dire.

As for interprovincial migration, the main culprit behind BC's loss in Q2 was to Alberta, the exhcnages with other provinces was largely the same as last year. And migration is heavily lagging actual conditions (ie. people laregely make decisions to leave at least a couple months in advance) so often the numbers are 6 months+ behind economic changes. The affordability issue is no doubt a big concern and affects the numbers, but with the situation in Alberta not improving (or getting worse in many ways) since the summer period that the demographics release was from, we'll see what the next few quarters show. And really people need to look at these movements in context over many years. BC and Alberta led for so long (BC had 21 consecutive quarters of growth, and with the exception of only a few periods, has gained for most of its existence). So playing it now like they are on their knees because of one quarter net loss of 1,200 people is overly dramatic. That is still lower than the average quarterly loss for the past 25 years for most provinces.
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  #9229  
Old Posted Jan 14, 2019, 10:14 PM
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Young professionals leaving Vancouver over high cost of housing

The Canadian Press
JANUARY 13, 2019


VANCOUVER — Iain Reeve and his wife moved from rental home to rental home in Vancouver but their final solution for secure housing was to move to Ottawa and buy two houses — one for them and another for his parents.

He and his wife, Cassandra Sclauzero, are professionals in their mid-30s who wanted to start a family but they couldn't afford to buy in the city.

"We wanted to own a home to have stability, and peace of mind and flexibility," Reeve said.

"The rental market didn't have stability. We both had settled into pretty good first jobs. But as much as we loved the city and had these connections it wasn't worth it."


They were "kicked out" of a few places in three years through no fault of their own, he said, adding that it was because people were selling or flipping properties.

Reeve grew up and went to university in Vancouver.

"I also have parents who live in the Vancouver area who don't own a home and are working class and not a ton of money saved for retirement, and I'm an only child," he said. We just couldn't even get our foot in the door in terms of stable housing."

Reeve said he knows a number of people who are thinking of moving out of the city simply because of the housing market.

...

https://www.tricitynews.com/young-pr...ing-1.23595814
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  #9230  
Old Posted Jan 15, 2019, 8:05 PM
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  #9231  
Old Posted Jan 15, 2019, 8:30 PM
whatnext whatnext is offline
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Originally Posted by Docere View Post
There is certainly some interesting data on the website the article refers to:
http://www.superdiv.mmg.mpg.de

It's interesting that Filipino immigrants are much more likely to be fluent in English and employed than their Chinese counterparts.

Last edited by whatnext; Jan 15, 2019 at 10:25 PM. Reason: spelling
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  #9232  
Old Posted Jan 17, 2019, 8:13 AM
ssiguy ssiguy is offline
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Time for another Vancouver sales update. All markets begin a boom and start a crash at the top of the market in single family homes so they best reflect future prices and trends.These stats are from Dec 15/2018 to Jan 14/2019 compared to the same 4 week period for 2017/18 courtesy of Zolo.ca

For reference, 7 to 10 months of inventory usually is seen as a balanced market where prices generally stabilize. The lower the months of inventory the higher prices are forcast to climb and vice-versa. These are the stats for SFH of GV markets over 50,000.
The stats are for total sales/inventory and percentage change from the same period last year. The number of months of inventory in some of the markets is horrifying and NuWest is the lowest level at a still high 15 months.


Vancouver...................24/1117................-60%/0%
North Van....................9/282...................-61/+44
Delta...........................9/331..................-63/+23
Coquitlam....................6/342....................-84/+23
Burnaby.......................9/369....................-75/+1
Richmond.....................10/667..................-78/+23
NuWest.........................6/94.....................+20/+49
Langley........................14/449...................-73/+60
Surrey..........................29/1243.................-84/+13
Port Coq.......................5/108.....................-50/+61
Maple Ridge..................16/306...................-58/+34
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  #9233  
Old Posted Jan 17, 2019, 1:58 PM
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esquire esquire is online now
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Originally Posted by whatnext View Post
There is certainly some interesting data on the website the article refers to:
http://www.superdiv.mmg.mpg.de

It's interesting that Filipino immigrants are much more likely to be fluent in English and employed than their Chinese counterparts.
English is an official language in the Philippines and it's fairly widely spoken there. Contrast with China where English is obviously not official and has a far lower profile generally.

I'd suggest that arriving with a good functional knowledge of English helps immensely with integration.
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  #9234  
Old Posted Jan 17, 2019, 7:59 PM
ssiguy ssiguy is offline
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^^^.....….and more proof that no one without a solid fluency of either official language should even be considered for immigration.
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  #9235  
Old Posted Jan 18, 2019, 4:24 AM
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^^^.....….and more proof that no one without a solid fluency of either official language should even be considered for immigration.
Well we do have a point system and skills in one of the two official languages does play an important role in getting a higher score.
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  #9236  
Old Posted Jan 18, 2019, 8:19 AM
ssiguy ssiguy is offline
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^ I know that and it is not good enough. No one should be even considered for immigration unless they are fluent in either French or English and once they are, THEN they can stand with their points system.


Anyway, those sales/inventory year to year comparisons are quite incredible.
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  #9237  
Old Posted Jan 18, 2019, 8:47 PM
whatnext whatnext is offline
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US hedge fund shorts Canadian banks over housing exposure:

A small U.S. hedge fund that was a top performer last year is shorting Canadian banks.

Crescat Capital sees the Canadian economy heading for recession as the housing market buckles. That might be bad enough for the banks but they face an added strain: outside the financial sector, more than 80 per cent of Canadian companies aren’t generating enough cash to support their businesses, the highest in the world, according to Crescat.

“Canadian banks will be left holding the bag and the ones to suffer from what is likely to be a major economic recession,” Tavi Costa, a global macro analyst at Denver-based Crescat, said by phone...

...The country’s biggest lenders could face troubles on both the housing and corporate fronts, according to Costa.

At their peak last year, the six largest banks, traded at an average of 1.9 times book value, a similar valuation to U.S. banks prior to the global financial crisis in 2008, according to Costa. He expects that to drop to 0.7 times book value or so, where U.S. banks were trading post-financial crisis.

Other investors have recommended shorting Canadian financials on a looming housing correction in the past, including Steve Eisman, who predicted the U.S. subprime mortgage collapse...


https://business.financialpost.com/n...nks-on-housing
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  #9238  
Old Posted Jan 20, 2019, 5:00 AM
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Canada is in a very dangerous position due to it`s high levels or personal and corporate debt levels and our overdependence on the housing sector for much of our economic growth in the last decade with BC obviously being the most grotesque example.

With Vancouver now in a housing meltdown, Toronto slowing down, and a generally more restrained housing market nationwide save Montreal, London, Ottawa, and a few other centres, the governments are also at huge risk. Housing and it`s associated industries provide a lot of government revenue so they will taker a hit with the biggest threat be a major housing collapse where bankruptsies rise and hence unemployment. This means more people declaring insolvency and handing the keys back to the bank who, courtesy of CMHC, just as quickly hand them over to Ottawa.
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  #9239  
Old Posted Jan 20, 2019, 8:26 AM
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Originally Posted by ssiguy View Post
Canada is in a very dangerous position due to it`s high levels or personal and corporate debt levels and our overdependence on the housing sector for much of our economic growth in the last decade with BC obviously being the most grotesque example.

With Vancouver now in a housing meltdown, Toronto slowing down, and a generally more restrained housing market nationwide save Montreal, London, Ottawa, and a few other centres, the governments are also at huge risk. Housing and it`s associated industries provide a lot of government revenue so they will taker a hit with the biggest threat be a major housing collapse where bankruptsies rise and hence unemployment. This means more people declaring insolvency and handing the keys back to the bank who, courtesy of CMHC, just as quickly hand them over to Ottawa.
What's happening in Montreal, London, Ottawa, and a few other centres that are making them different than the rest of the country?
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  #9240  
Old Posted Jan 20, 2019, 4:42 PM
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What's happening in Montreal, London, Ottawa, and a few other centres that are making them different than the rest of the country?
They have stable and growing real estate markets. The prices aren't rising very high for new apartments or SFH or other housing, and a healthy mix is being built of all housing types.
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