Queen's Park Politics

[Blitz]

Originally Posted by eternallyme

My thinking right now:

OLP 46 - PCPO 40 - ONDP 21

Seat changes:

OLP -> PCPO
Brant
Glengarry-Prescott-Russell
Kitchener Centre
Ottawa-Orleans

OLP -> ONDP
London North Centre
Sault Ste. Marie
Sudbury
Thunder Bay-Atikokan
Thunder Bay-Superior North
Windsor West

PCPO -> OLP
Etobicoke-Lakeshore
Halton
Thornhill

PCPO -> ONDP
(none)

ONDP -> OLP
Bramalea-Gore-Malton
Davenport
Parkdale-High Park
Trinity-Spadina

ONDP -> PCPO
Essex
Niagara Falls

I don't see London North Centre going NDP. Deb Matthews has a pretty strong base in London - she's the health minister and deputy premiere and Londoners will want someone in cabinet like this to make sure the city isn't forgotten.

In Essex, the NDP incumbent is pretty strong and I don't see that riding going PC. Way too much anti-Hudak spreading outward there from suburban Windsor.

Windsor West has a chance of switching to NDP but I also think residents there see the benefit of holding onto a Liberal cabinet minister.

[eternallyme]

As for how I spoiled? I cast a blank ballot or wrote a note of civil negativity (i.e. no foul language - polite yet blunt) attacking all parties.

[Jamaican-Phoenix]

I wish people would stop thinking they know what government is going to form. We could still end up with a PC minority or (God forbid) majority.

[flar]

Sometimes we're surprised, but polling and history go a long way to predicting outcomes.

I was surprised a couple weeks ago talking to some relatives in SW Ontario how much they hate Hudak. They totally hate the Liberals, whom they still associate with McGuinty, but will not vote for Hudak. They lean right so there is simply no option for them in this election. I think a lot of people are in that boat.

[Ottawa superman]

Originally Posted by Blitz

I don't see London North Centre going NDP. Deb Matthews has a pretty strong base in London - she's the health minister and deputy premiere and Londoners will want someone in cabinet like this to make sure the city isn't forgotten.

In Essex, the NDP incumbent is pretty strong and I don't see that riding going PC. Way too much anti-Hudak spreading outward there from suburban Windsor.

Windsor West has a chance of switching to NDP but I also think residents there see the benefit of holding onto a Liberal cabinet minister.

To continue, the Liberal still have strong polling number in Eastern Ontario, and are fairly strong in Ottawa. The mayor, Jim Watson, is a former Liberal and is heading for re election. I suspect Ottawa Orleans and Prescott Russel, will stay Liberal.

An other issue, is the light rail expansion to Orleans is supported by the Liberal but opposed by the PC. That could also influence the vote.

Originally Posted by flar

Sometimes we're surprised, but polling and history go a long way to predicting outcomes.

I was surprised a couple weeks ago talking to some relatives in SW Ontario how much they hate Hudak. They totally hate the Liberals, whom they still associate with McGuinty, but will not vote for Hudak. They lean right so there is simply no option for them in this election. I think a lot of people are in that boat.

The Hudak hate can be very strong in Ottawa and Prescott Russell, especially among francophone, because Hudak is associated to the Harris government. The local candidates are respected, but the Leader does influence the vote.

[eternallyme]

Yet Stephen Harper doesn't seem to be hated nearly as much in those parts of Ontario...most of the hate for him is in the urban core areas where any kind of Conservative would likely finish a distant 3rd, or even 4th.

[1overcosc]

Originally Posted by eternallyme

Yet Stephen Harper doesn't seem to be hated nearly as much in those parts of Ontario...most of the hate for him is in the urban core areas where any kind of Conservative would likely finish a distant 3rd, or even 4th.

Federal != Provincial. We're talking about a province that simulatenously supported Mike Harris and Jean Chretien.

In any case, the federal Liberals have had a constant lead over Harper's Conservatives for almost a year now, with LPC support in Ontario often over 40%.

[Jamaican-Phoenix]

Originally Posted by flar

Sometimes we're surprised, but polling and history go a long way to predicting outcomes.

Yet we're getting more and more inaccurate with our predictions and speculations.

[Dr Nevergold]

Originally Posted by Jamaican-Phoenix

Yet we're getting more and more inaccurate with our predictions and speculations.

I thought the polls had been relatively accurate. The liberal surge in Quebec was detected before the election. The NDP and conservative surge in 2011 was accurate before the federal election.

Wynnes problem is that she better hope the party didn't peek to early.

[Jamaican-Phoenix]

Originally Posted by Dr Nevergold

I thought the polls had been relatively accurate. The liberal surge in Quebec was detected before the election. The NDP and conservative surge in 2011 was accurate before the federal election.

Wynnes problem is that she better hope the party didn't peek to early.

The same pollsters initially predicted a PQ majority in Quebec, and a landslide Wildrose victory in Alberta.

[Dr Nevergold]

Originally Posted by Jamaican-Phoenix

The same pollsters initially predicted a PQ majority in Quebec, and a landslide Wildrose victory in Alberta.

Depends on the pollster except for wildrose, that was a big screw up.

[vid]

Originally Posted by eternallyme

As for how I spoiled? I cast a blank ballot or wrote a note of civil negativity (i.e. no foul language - polite yet blunt) attacking all parties.

Could you explain why you wouldn't just decline the ballot?

[Jamaican-Phoenix]

Originally Posted by vid

Could you explain why you wouldn't just decline the ballot?

Spoiling a ballot sends a stronger message. It says "I came out here, waited in line, proved who I am, got behind a booth/divider, and deliberately spoiled my ballot. That is how fed up I am with the system and the parties involved."

[Innsertnamehere]

Spoiling your ballot is easily confused with someone who unintentionally filled it out incorrectly, declining a ballot can only be done purposefully.

[1overcosc]

Originally Posted by Innsertnamehere

Spoiling your ballot is easily confused with someone who unintentionally filled it out incorrectly, declining a ballot can only be done purposefully.

Depends on how you spoil. The way eternallyme suggested works well.

[eternallyme]

Originally Posted by vid

Could you explain why you wouldn't just decline the ballot?

I didn't know it was an option. I know federally it is not.

[eternallyme]

Originally Posted by Dr Nevergold

Depends on the pollster except for wildrose, that was a big screw up.

The initial PQ majority polls were real, but the talk of separation killed them later on.

The Wildrose were likely not ahead as much as they wanted to punish the PC's and they were a default option (they aren't going Liberal or NDP).

The BC polling issue...well...hard to explain that.

[J.OT13]

Originally Posted by eternallyme

As for how I spoiled? I cast a blank ballot or wrote a note of civil negativity (i.e. no foul language - polite yet blunt) attacking all parties.

Apparently, that's illegal. ,

[eternallyme]

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toront...656964?cmp=rss

Wynne is walking into a minefield now. Horwath needs to steer clear and say no to any formal coalition, especially in a PC minority, since she would be seen as propping up corruption. When the Liberals, NDP and Bloc proposed the coalition in 2008, their poll numbers tanked and the federal Conservatives were in absolute majority territory in Ontario (the post-coalition polls had them around 55% in Ontario, which is about where the federal Liberals were in the Chretien era).

[SteelTown]

Nothing wrong with a coalition government.

If the PC get a minority, let them table a budget. If the PC can't get the approval of the Liberal or NDP than they can form a partnership much like the Peterson/Rae agreement.